http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Massive surge today (last gasp?) right back up to the next line of resistance. All Ords +2.6% with impressive gains throughout all sectors. Materials is leading the pack, +4.7% followed by IT +3.6%. Consumer Discretionary is up the least, +1.1%.

The heavyweight miners are loving the attention: BHP +5.5% and RIO +6.1%. Golds aren't doing so badly either; Newcrest +2.4% and Newmont +1%.

Oils upwardly mobile: Woodside +2.5%, Santos +2.1% and Caltex +3.4%.

ECB Signals Readiness to Raise Rates, Adds More Cash

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank indicated it may still raise interest rates in September and announced an extra 40 billion euros ($54 billion) three-month loan to ease lending between commercial banks.

The Frankfurt-based bank responded to speculation that it may hold off raising interest rates on Sept. 6 by saying it's sticking to the policy stance expressed by President Jean-Claude Trichet on Aug. 2. At the time, Trichet pledged to show ``strong vigilance'' on inflation, a phrase he has used to signal each of the eight rate increases since late 2005.

U.K. CBI Factory Orders Index Reaches 12-Year High

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- An index of U.K. factory orders reached the highest in 12 years in August, reviving concern that quicker economic growth will allow companies to raise prices, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry showed.

The reading of 9 was the highest since May 1995, and a gauge of average prices in the next three months increased to 16 from 11, the biggest U.K. business lobby said today in London. The survey of 644 manufacturers was conducted July 24-Aug. 15.

As most know I live in southern California and I was on the golf course yesterday with a realtor. I've spoken to the guy before so I kicked off a conversation with him on the putting green before we started our rounds...

"So how's the realestate industry doing" I ask... I get a dirty look back but then the guy makes an attempt to soften up....

"Not too bad" he says...."Some properties are moving....I've got a real motivated buyer......the mortgage situation is getting much better.....I've got a couple places that are going back online with those NO DOC loans"

So I says, "Liar loans....if that is what it takes to get the realestate industry back on track boy are we in trouble". OK, tact is not my strong suit. The guy gives me one of THOSE looks and stops talking to me...

On the first tee this realtor shanks his tee shot into the rough and we don't find the ball. He takes a triple bogey on the first hole and plays at about that same level for the rest of the round. This is all very perplexing to me as I know this guy has a single digit handicap. I guess my comments were not well taken...

There's stress out there for realtors right now.....and I'm thinking there is some delusion also....

[attachmentid=87705]

Nothing much changed for the rest of the day; All Ords held at the +2.5% level. Materials stayed in the lead, +5% with IT next, +3.2%. Consumer Discretionary had the least gain (not to be sneezed at), +0.9%.

Both BHP and RIO gained 6.5% (scary) and the golds did okay, Newcrest +2% and Newmont +1.6%.

Oils did well: Woodside +1.5%, Santos +2.6% and Caltex +2.9%.

Big green in Asia: Taiwan and Honkers +2.8%, Nikkers +2.6% and Sth Korea +2.3%.

Over to UK/Europe:







http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

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Europe's looking a bit tired...

Anyone else having probs with graphics coming up red X? It's been happening for a few days but could be the local service..

Here we go again - Spreads tightening in on the back of the BAC investment in CFC. IMO, that stake is total bs.

Our thoughts are we have a selling opp over the next 2 weeks in spread product. Concurrent with an I/T top in equities. Already short MBS, will continue to focus on corps and agencies in the next week.

Risk well spread:

"Bank of China Ltd., the nation's second-largest bank, said it holds almost $9.7 billion of securities backed by U.S. subprime loans, the most of any Asian company."

" Defaults on U.S. subprime loans are rising after originations reached a record $805 billion in 2005, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's biggest bank, said this month it has about 300 billion yen ($2.6 billion) of investments that incorporate subprime loans. Sixteen Taiwanese banks held a total $1.2 billion in securities linked to such home loans, the island's financial regulator said Aug. 9. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mbz0&refer=home

So there's 805 Billion from 2005 vintage, and China has 10 bi, Japan 3 bi ? I wonder where the remaining 98% are?

Canada

Mrotgauge layoffs? what are you talking about?

"Initial unemployment claims declined by 2,000, in line with forecasts, to 322,000 in the week that ended Aug. 18, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, rose to 317,750 from 313,000."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...7NeQ&refer=home

DJ Fed Accepts $7 Bln In 14-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $7 Bln
Total submitted: $68.15 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $500 Mln
Total submitted: $23.25 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.96%
Weighted Average: 4.96%
High-rate submitted: 4.96%
Low-rate submitted: 4.25%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $464 Mln
Total submitted: $23.9 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.5%
Weighted Average: 3.5%
High-rate submitted: 3.5%
Low-rate submitted: 2.75%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $6.036 Bln
Total submitted: $21 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.05%
Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.1%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

These mark-to-model labor statistics are working great.

That's a $5 billion cut from the rollover. Unless they come up with at least $5 billion in the overnight operation, it will be another drain.

Possibly for employment purposes they are considered independent contractors.

And wait until next week when this week's number will be revised higher, but no one will care.

This is a watershed.

India overtakes US as Nokia's No. 2 market.

http://letters.washingtonpost.com/W7RH02AB...36FF7F36D4F4110

We are approaching LeeWhee's first five minute opening roman candle.

Believe it's in volume not in revenue, ASP's probably much lower in India. Still pretty amazing.

Bulls making a case for a bottom

[attachmentid=87708]

In shlocks and junk fixed income.

That's nothing. China Mobile has more subscribers than there are people living in the USA. (330 million subscribers vs 301,139,947 US pop. (July 2007 est.)

Makes you wonder how long we get to pay the piper and pick the tune. Indeed, the US consumer is largely in the toddler seat at the back of the bus when it comes to mobile phone trends (iphone notwithstanding).

And why guys like this will do very well long-term

New bellwethers update posted in WSE Pro. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=1580

In case you missed it, real estate and mortgage update was posted yesterday. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=1574

5 day cycle indicator sell signals again. The last 3 signals have all whipsawed. Maybe the 4th time is the charm.

qqqq 5 day cycle projection was around 48.15. They missed by 15 cents.

oddly, the spy 3 day cycle projection was 148.15 and they missed that by .15 too.

SPX should get to 1475-80.

minor resistance at 1475.

200d weighted MA at 1476.45

What happened to:

[1] Bank/broker write down of various mortgage related investments and hung bridge loans -- are they "being held for investment" -- and therefore don't require M-2-M? Not!

[2] Current LBO deals that are hanging in limbo?

[3] Hedge fund redemptions and resultant liquidations to meet redemptions?

Guess I'm early to the party -- nothing new there

DJ Fed Accepts $7 Bln In 12-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 12-Day RPs
Total accepted: $7 Bln
Total submitted: $55.85 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3 Bln
Total submitted: $16.45 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.95%
Weighted Average: 4.95%
High-rate submitted: 4.95%
Low-rate submitted: 4.1%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.057 Bln
Total submitted: $25.45 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.6%
Weighted Average: 3.6%
High-rate submitted: 3.6%
Low-rate submitted: 2.5%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $2.943 Bln
Total submitted: $13.95 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.05%
Weighted Average: 5.05%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.8%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

Gotta love consistency in the crooks!

*DJ Fed Data Shows Another Drop In Commercial Paper Outstanding

*DJ Fed Data Shows Drop Of $90 Bn In CP Wednesday From Prior Wk

*DJ Fed Data: Asset Backed CP Fell $77 Bn Weds From Prior Wk

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

I still think we get another Enron/WorldCom event. Somebody is cooking the books, and we'll break the record for bankruptcy and market cap wipe out. I find it hard to believe low-credit score schmucks are the only liars in this.

Everyone of these CFC rumors have been selling opportunity.
Will this time be different?

I guess the fourth time was the charm.

It looks like the Yen carry trade is being resurrected.

JY U07 86950 86950 85630 86210 -1010

DJ Fed Accepts $3.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $3.25 Bln
Total submitted: $35.35 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $5.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.75%
Low-rate submitted: 4.5%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.25 Bln
Total submitted: $24.15 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3%
Weighted Average: 3.04%
High-rate submitted: 3.25%
Low-rate submitted: 2.5%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $5.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5%
Low-rate submitted: 4.5%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

SPX now RED.

Only this time wasn't a rumor.

Since last Thursday's bottom, those who bought the close and sold the open would be up about 58 SPX pts in five days. Those who bought the open and sold the close would be down 4 pts so far.

Look like this is not a market for girlychickens right now.

When they start letting the girlychickens play this game, it's probably time to head for the exits.

Just so that everyone does not think me a complete fool I bought a good chunk of QQQQ puts Tuesday at the close. That said, what ever low we hit between now and Oct. will not be seen again in our lifetimes.

sold my QLD for 2 pts this AM- qqqq battle @ 47.65

Is it okay to say that I for one hope that those who bought the open today and will sell the close will add to the 4 pts loss?

Doc is right again.

Fed cash not reaching mortgage players forcing sale
Wed Aug 22, 2007 9:24AM EDT



By Al Yoon and Lynn Adler

NEW YORK, Aug 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's attempts to provide liquidity in the past few days are not reaching the players who need it since they cannot borrow directly from the central bank, leaving the $7.2 trillion U.S. mortgage bond market struggling to clear the volumes being offered.

Last Friday the Federal Reserve cut the discount rate at which banks can borrow directly from the central bank by 0.5 percentage points to 5.75 percent. The Fed has also injected about $100 billion of extra liquidity into the banking system in its daily open market operations in the past week.

The moves were initially cheered by world stock markets, but failed to curb the flight to the quality and liquidity of U.S. Treasury bills and bonds that has seen the U.S. Treasury 2-year note fall to its lowest yield in nearly two years.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfina...0070822?sp=true

Still trying to get the projections together, however it seems as if a scorch high around pigmania luncheon to SnPee future 1490. Then a phattt sell off.

For now sideways sell, don't have a good level for the entry long, maybe someone else does.

Or none of the above.

Second thought -

For quite some time now, the better s/t play has been to buy around noon and hold to the close (with a tight stop below the low before entry).

This approach has been consistent with the 4 day pattern you mention in that the mid part of the day often is lower than the opening blast.

It also tends to reinforce the consistent pattern that the Fed+21 comes in to rescue the market from major downdrafts about noon.

Only a complete fool would make a statement like that, so if you don't want us to think that, it might be a good idea to condition the statement.

Fed did a 12 day and an overnight after the 14 day, resulting in a net add of $3.25 billion. Details and analysis later in the WSE Pro Fed report.