http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

On the downward trail today. All Ords -0.8% with most sectors red. Materials is down the most, -1.6% closely followed by Property Trusts, -1.5%. IT and Energy are the only greens, +1% and +0.6% respectively.

Miners are in a pullback, fairly minor considering the recent gains: BHP -2%, RIO -1.8% and in the golds, Newcrest -1.1% and Newmont -2.4%.

Oils are doing okay: Woodside +1.2%, Santos +1% and Caltex +3.4%.

New Zealand's Annual Trade Gap Unexpectedly Widened

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's annual trade deficit unexpectedly widened in July, when a surging currency crimped exports of butter, meat and aluminum. Imports rose to an eight- month high.

The trade shortfall widened to NZ$6.32 billion ($4.5 billion) in the 12 months ended July 31 from NZ$6.22 billion in June, Statistics New Zealand said today in Wellington. The median estimate of 10 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a NZ$6.07 billion gap.

Exports fell from a year earlier for the third straight month, a sign that the New Zealand dollar's 11 percent gain the past year has hurt overseas sales even as commodity prices rise.

German Second-Quarter Growth Slowed on Construction

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- German economic growth slowed in the three months through June, led by the biggest decline in construction spending in a decade.

Construction investment fell 4.8 percent in the second quarter from the first, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today, the biggest drop since the first quarter of 1997. Economic growth slowed to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent in the first quarter, matching an initial estimate published Aug. 14. Expansion was driven by exports, which rose 0.9 percent, and company investment in equipment, which gained 2.5 percent.

DOW:

If my intra-day Elliott count is correct Friday will see wave 3 down, as we retrace to the origin of the rising wedge over the next few days.

Good morning Stoolville

Always a bool market somewhere

Hang Seng monthly chart

upper channel line is at 26600 right now

this thing must go below 20k, before that doesnt happen it is boolish as hell.


Chart öffnen

Shanghai weekly chart

clearly to see that from 2006 on, when it broke out of that channel things went absolutely parabolic, one cant even draw a serious uptrendline any more, although it is a log chart. That thing is completely out of hand. Could be at 10k in just 2 months from here, why not, it is manipulated, they can do with it what they want.

From a TA viewpoint there is a chance of neg divs on the weekly, but only if we go down soon.


Chart öffnen

It all turned a bit bearish in the arvo. All Ords finished -1%, Materials slid further, -2.3% with Telecomms next, -1.5%. IT remained upside leader, +0.9% with Energy the only other green sector, +0.1%.

Miners saw selling: BHP -2.9%, RIO -2.1% and in the golds, Newcrest -2% and Newmont -2.4%.

Not sure why Energy had such a meagre rise as the big fellas did well: Woodside +1.2%, Santos +2.1% and Caltex +3.4%.

Asia mixed with China +1.5% and India +0.9% heading north and Honkers, -1.1% leading the rest south.


Over to UK/Europe:







http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Here is a link to a Bradley Model Siderograph. It calls for a turn on Aug. 26th

http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley.htm

It's turn dates are very close to the key dates in the LTCM model posted yesterday. The directions drawn are exact opposites.

A fractal reiteration of the March 07 low would have us down today to about 1440-1445 on the SPX, and up next week.

So Monday looks like a key date.

FWIW, the entrails of the Minotaur's bool killed yesterday were inconclusive.

Cantarell - Pemex says they cannot see much damage

"A few hours ago, (Pemex) restarted its crude and gas production in the Bay of Campeche after having concluded an aerial and physical revision of a large part of the deep sea rigs, which showed there were no great damages," Pemex said in a statement.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N23264650.htm

As LeeWhee has pointed out on several occasions, the Shanghai market is not exactly a "market" in the sense that it is a closed system. It is controlled by the Chinese government, only Chinese citizens can play it, and at the same time, they are not allowed to gamble in other markets. In that sense it is little more than a giant closed Pai Gow parlor.

Major problems with internet sites located in the midwest US. Our podcast server is inaccessible, as is Barcharts.com. I suspect that some server farms have been flooded out or have had power cut off, and generators do not work when they are under water. These floods are turning into a mega disaster.

I have removed certain functions that came from barcharts.com in order to speed up the page loading. hopefully, they will be back up soon.

Canadians are more docile. They'll wait a bit before getting mad.



I've seen that chart.

It's actually been trending down for the past 4 months or so. The jig is up.



http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data

Here's another version:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html

Same thing. Stalled about 4 months ago.

Good Morning!

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What the popular press fails to emphasize is that the Cantarell oil wells were shut in.

Cantarell consists mainly of marine limestone reservoirs . http://www.geologicsystems.com/Cantarell_paper_2005.pdf

Many limestone marine carbonates are rate sensitive, i.e. they need to flow in order to forestall damage, from matrix scaling, fine deposition, gas trapping, etc. If one googles "oil field shut in damage" you can find many discussions of the topic and the remedies [usually acid stimulation]

Although Cantarell had been on production for 20 years and was ready to peak, the rapid decline of Cantarell in 06 from 2.8 MMBOD to the pre-Dean 2.1MM bbls/day followed two shut in's for hurricanes.

So apparently Cantarell has 'rate sensitive' reservoirs

Any harm to the production facilities will create additional problems.

Uh............not to put too fine a point on it, but that's not exactly correct.

The SSE Composite Index contains both A and B shares.

A shares trade locally in the local currency.

B shares can be purchased by anyone else, irrespective of race, color, creed or national origin, so long as they got Murkin Pesos to pay for them and have a corresponding borker in their home country.

H shares are also available on the Hong Kong exchange as a seperate maket for some A share companies. There is usually a difference between A and H share prices, but there is no practical way to arbitrage the differences.

Only the A shares in China are part of the Pai Gow-like frenzy. Foreigners buying either H or B shares are free to bid and ask against each other freely and are also protected from any craziness associated with the China only A shares.

Merkins that want to play individual B or H shares can find a listing of those available as Depository Reciepts at ADR Universe

Newsnoise-

Factory Orders Jump 5.9 Percent in July

......In the manufacturing report, orders for automobiles rose 9.8 percent in July, the most since January 2003. Demand for primary metals, including steel, increased 7.9 percent, the biggest rise since July 2004. Orders for communications equipment soared 20.7 percent, the most since March 2006. Demand for airplanes for commercial use rose 12.6 percent. Airplane orders for defense purposes increased 15.8 percent in July.

Demand for computers, however, dropped 4 percent in July and orders for electrical equipment and appliances fell 1.2 percent -- two weak spots in an otherwise strong report.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070824/economy.html?.v=9

Speaking of B Shares. CSUN-China Sunenergy is getting a 25% smackdown premarket reporting a loss and departure of the CFO.

ominously quiet this moanin.

Will he be executed?

I'm excited for the new home sales data at 7am.

Options & Executions.

Now that's a system to align management with shareholder interest!

Scottrade data feed is dead.

Not much of an opening roman candle today.

Yeah, Crapvision attributed it to the fact that "everyone is out shopping for school supplies for their children".....BWAAAHHHHHHHHHH

Now that's what I can "anal-y-sis"

Popped back to life.

Holy smokes!!!!

There's the wife of that guy Lee Whee uses for his avater.

WOW!!!

That's crazy, is China recycling their Dollahs into heavy machinery?

I know we often joke about this but.................

Tokyo housewife hid 1.7 million pounds in forex gains Fri Aug 24, 1:22 AM ET



TOKYO (Reuters) - A financially savvy Tokyo housewife who made 400 million yen (1.7 million pounds) trading in foreign exchange markets was fined on Friday for evading tax, a court official said.

ADVERTISEMENT


Yukiko Ikebe, 60, got a suspended jail sentence and was fined 34 million yen, after she used relatives' names to make her gains look smaller and avoid paying tax, NHK said.

"She felt it was unfair to have to pay tax on her gains, when she made losses some years," NHK quoted the judge as saying. "She spent the money on kimonos and jewellery."

Forex trading has become more popular in recent years in Japan, where low interest rates have led retail investors to seek new sources of profit.

Looks as though they can't even give them dollars away....

THE FED: No Further Bank Borrowing From Discount Window, Fed Says

August 23, 2007: 09:56 PM EST

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) -- Few U.S. banks have taken advantage of the Federal Reserve's offer last Friday to lend them unlimited amounts of money at 5.75%, Fed data released Thursday show.

As of Wednesday, outstanding loans from the Federal Reserve's discount window totaled $2 billion, exactly the amount four major banks said Wednesday that they had borrowed to show solidarity with the Fed's attempt to ease the crunch on short-term credit.

Full Text

Sales of new one-family houses in June 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000, according to
estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban
Development. This is 2.8 percent (±12.0%)* above the revised June rate of 846,000 and is 10.2 percent (±12.3%)*
below the July 2006 estimate of 969,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2007 was $239,500; the average sales price was $300,800. The
seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 533,000. This represents a supply of

True. It's a partially closed system. There are also other mainland exchanges aside from the Shank.

That said, I wouldn't trade mainland Chinese shares with Tan Angelo's money. The "open" part of the system is relatively new and the stew of "open" and "closed" shares, combined with the fact that the central gubermint (or another gubermint agency) owns controlling interest in most of the bigcraps on the Shank, makes it a real investing circus.

The Hanger, on the other hand, has a very long trading history and there is detailed technical and funnymental data available to trade off. So I'd have more confidence using the Hanger shares as a proxy for China than I would the SHanker shares.

Not to mention, the Hanger trades at less than 50% of the valuation of the SHank. Not that it means anything at this point.

I don't trade either. I've traded some of the ADRs and the etfs that track China. But I don't own any of the direct shares. Plus the time difference from the U.S. is problematic. If I lived in Ozland, it might be different.

no activity from FED yet...... very odd

don't worry be happy


=DJ DATA SNAP: US Jul Home Sales Pace Above Expectations
============================================================
New Home Sales Jul Jun ! Consensus: !
Overall Sales: 870,000 846,000r ! 822,000 !
Percentage Change: +2.8% -4.0%r ! Actual: !
Months' Supply: 7.5 7.7r ! 870,000 !
============================================================

By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--New-home sales defied expectations and stopped
sliding during July, making a modest increase that gave the beleaguered
housing market a little good news.

Sales of single-family homes increased by 2.8% last month to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 870,000, the Commerce Department said Friday. June
new-home sales fell 4.0% to an annual rate to 846,000; originally, the
government said June sales dropped by 6.6% to 834,000.

The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was a
1.4% decline in July sales to an 822,000 annual rate.

The key here, IMO, is to watch 169 on HGX. That's the line the crooks are trying to hold. Right now, it's at 172 again. Got no pop on this "data".

Funny how the markit goes from the most volatile action we've seen in five years last week to the least volatile action we've seen in years this week.

Funny that.

=DJ Fed Stays Out Of Market Early Friday

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Federal Reserve has stayed out of open market
operations early Friday morning, choosing not to inject money into the banking
system at its normal time of 9:30 a.m. EDT (1330 GMT).

The move was a further sign of how policy makers are working to manage
liquidity in the system. Thursday, the Fed moved to provide liquidity via
injections totaling $17.25 billion in 14-day, 12-day and overnight funds.

The Fed has lowered the size of its injections of liquidity of late, as
market conditions have calmed somewhat.

Still, the New York Fed did say Thursday that it would be redeeming another
$5 billion in Treasury-bill holdings - another of its efforts to unstick
gummed-up markets.

Strategists at Wrightson ICAP had been expecting the Fed to pump a bit more
than the expiring $3.25 billion Friday morning, pointing to a possible weekend
repurchase of around $4 billion to $5 billion. The Fed has so far added $26.5
billion to the system since Monday.

+2.8% (+/-12%)

Funny also that despite the drop in volatility of late, the VIX ,off its highs of last week but still trading at multi year highs

When your range of error is 4x larger than your guesstimate, you know you've got some AAA-rated data right there.

The margin of error is 4 times the size of the change in the home sales.

Oooo-Faaaaaaaaaa..........looks nice, but seems a little pricey

Hala Ranch
The 56,000-square-foot, Aspen, Colo., chalet is on the market for $135 million.

I'd make an offer, but first they have to get all those sharks out of the pool.

Gotto to keep that Yen carry trade going

JY U07 86250 86820 86130 86380 -150

Orders for autos rose. let's see what sales do.

A very strange comment out of Barfing.com:

10:05 am : There wasn't a lot of conviction in the early-going, but mercifully, there wasn't a lot of volatility either

CFC now down only a buck on that good news.