http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Here we go again; volatility seems to be the theme lately. All Ords +1.8% with all the usual stocks being bought. Energy, +3.2%, is first in line followed by Healthcare, +2.9% and Materials +2.6%. Consumer Discretionary is up the least, +1.1%.

The big miners are both up 2.8%. Golds are less enthusiastic, Newcrest +0.2% and Newmont +0.8%.

Big moves on the oils: Woodside +2.4%, Santos +3.9% and Caltex +2.7%.

It looks like the paired trade here is long the QQQQ and short the IWM

Hanging out in the middle of nowhere today and still in the resistance zone on the daily chart. All Ords closed +1.6% with Energy hanging on to the lead, +3.1% with Materials next at +2.7%. IT had the least gain, +0.1%.

In the miners, BHP finished +2.7% and RIO +2.9%. The golds stalled, Newcrest -1% and Newmont flat.

Oilwise, Woodside dropped back a touch, +1.6%, Santos +3.2% and Caltex +1.9%.

Over in Asia, Honkers leading the way (at this stage), +2% followed by India +1.8%. Nikkers is relatively flat at +0.3%.

And on to UK/Europe:

Closed





http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

The red line is today's close on All Ords. Lots of resistance at this level......


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Now that oil analcysts were as bearish as they haven't been in a long time Gloomberg stopped publishing the survey on their site, it figures. The last ATH was reached with a very high bearish level, so I'm figuring it wasn't a major top like last August (which had just the opposite positioning by Analcysts-extremely boolish) and that Oil will probably try to recapture it's ATH before the year end. XLE has already turned up, if it keeps going oil will follow.

edit: Ah, found it! stuffed in another arTICKLE.

"Oil may fall next week on speculation U.S. stockpiles will be sufficient to meet demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 41 analysts. Twenty six of the analysts, or 63 percent, said oil prices will decline, the most bearish response in the weekly survey since October 2005. Ten, or 24 percent, said prices will increase and five forecast little change."

Lol. I'll try to take some conclusions out of this later.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aQnMVKgS1UoA

Brent Oil long term weekly log chart

i dont see it that bullish, last years top looks like it was a major top and right now we have tripple neg div on the longer MACD weekly, thats aint bullish. Wouldnt be surprised if oil would go down to 50 again.


Chart öffnen


Chart öffnen

Price cuts coming, market falls by 12%, HD cuts 18% of Private Equity deal to get it done.

"Home Depot Inc., the world's biggest home-improvement retailer, agreed to sell its construction- supply unit for $8.5 billion, cutting the price by 18 percent as the U.S. credit squeeze curbed demand for leveraged-buyout debt, three people familiar with the agreement said."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...pZv0&refer=home

What he said.

There you have it. The market is "currently" 18% overpriced, and I emphasize "currently."

Good Morning Guys!! Long time lurker, thought I might start to participate......if the market is 18% over valued presently does that mean the other fakeover targets should get that premium sucked out of them? Specifically looking at STI as it has been propped by JPM stories....these folks have a major presence in Florida commercial real estate. Thoughts?

Welcome, Pacific. Sorry, don't have an answer to your question but someone probably will.

Hasta luego....you unqualified douche....

Welcome Pacific!

STI financed a lot of crap that they were left holding in the bust of the late 80s. I did some work for them estimating values of big properties they were foreclosing. They survived unscathed then but Florida's problems are orders of magnitude worse now. The growth just isn't there to bail them out from this type of mistake, and while I have no clue what their exposure is this time, clearly the commercial real estate bubble was just as big, if not bigger on this go round.

There's been a staggering addition to the inventory of commercial and industrial space in Palm Beach County, and the county's population peaked in 2005. State Road 7 in Wellington is the equivalent of University Drive or Pines Boulevard in Broward back in the 80s. By 1991 a huge percentage of those properties were only worth 25 cents on the dollar of their development costs. The FDIC and RTC ended up with many, if not most of them. Most of the work I did between 1989 and 1993 involved appraising distressed property for the banks, the FDIC, and the RTC. I suspect that the same thing lies ahead for the next 4-5 years for my friends still in the business.

Most of the biggest losers at that time were banks from outside the region, and a few local thrifts, in particular Sunrise Savings. One of the biggest offenders was the Bank of New England (BONE) which ultimately was shut down by the FDIC. Sun was in the mix, but their local knowledge helped them. Generally the local commercial banks were a lot more savvy. They made their share of mistakes but they were far from the worst offenders.

Of course, none of that matters. From a technical perspective the only thing that matters is the 75 level. As long as that's intact, STI will be ok. If you're talking about shorting it, I'd watch the 85 level where it should run into resistance. Could be interesting for a trade if it rolls over there or lower.

Outside of BONE, the dumbest fornicaters in the last debacle were the Ohio banks. They seem not to have learned. National City (NCC) bought Palm Beach County's Fidelity Federal after the market had already rolled over. National City is the dumbest bunch of fornicateers I have ever had the misfortune of dealing with in my life. You want to see a crap chart, take a look at that one. Trust me, they are morons.

greetings all,

also a long time lurker (well since 2001, which is a lifetime in this market)

shout out to doc and leewhee, keep up the great work gents

fwiw, made some $ on the bounce over the last week but am now looking for down starting today/tomorrow, i think we test and break the lows from august 16th, which of course will be moab opp

some reading from jeff cooper over at minyanville.com:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/1987-B...9/index/a/13875

cheers

And a big welcome to byhiselo

Any other lurkers who want to come out? Then we can do the welcome thing all in one post...

Perhaps it matters, maybe not. Maybe it goes to the 'tech don't do subprime' theme.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of Gateway Inc (GTW.N: Quote, Profile , Research) rose before the opening bell on Monday after Taiwan's Acer (2353.TW: Quote, Profile , Research) said it will buy Gateway for $710 million.

Gateway shares jumped 63 cents to $1.84 in electronic composite trading.

qqqq 3 day cycle indicators on sell since friday after market. Now 5 day cycle indicators are starting to roll over. Support at 48.

5 day cycle MA 47.90

spx 3 day cycle MA 1468.70

hui 3 day cycle indicators on sell. 5 day cycle indicators one on sell signal, the other not yet. 3 day cycle MA 322.83. 5 day 321.31. 8 day 318.80.

qqqq sproinggggg off 48.

A new trading week and an apparent deviation from the recent opening pattern.

I wonder what else this week will hold.

Existing Home Sales 5.75m

(edit add: flat m over m)

CNBS borker shill. Credit crunch a short term glitch.

DJ Fed Adds $9.5 Billion In A 10-Day RP Operation


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Federal Reserve has added $9.5 billion to the
financial system Monday in a 10-day repurchase agreement by its normal time of
9:30 a.m. EDT.

Whoopsie Doodle.......

Sorry Ray, better luck next time. Incidentally the PowerBall Lottery is up to $250,000,000..BWAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH

A lifetime of saving evaporates with bank's collapse
Lawrenceville bank closes, one customer is short $321,573
Sunday, August 05, 2007
By Dan Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Raymond Przybilinski socked away $521,000 from a lifetime of driving trucks, working overtime when he could and playing the piano or accordion late into the evenings at weddings, hotel bars and social clubs.
"I never drank (looks as though now may be is a good time to start ), I never smoked, always saving," said Mr. Przybilinski, speaking from his kitchen in Stanton Heights.

The money was destined for his five children. But that was before more than half of the family nest egg disappeared on Feb. 2 as state banking regulators seized Metropolitan Savings Bank in Lawrenceville, citing "unsafe and unsound" operations. When Mr. Przybilinski tried to take his money out, the man in charge of Metropolitan Savings' assets informed him that there was only $200,000 left to withdraw -- the amount protected by the federal government. A letter from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. later confirmed Mr. Przybilinski's status as a creditor for the remaining $321,573.47. He may or may not recover some of that money.



Da Link<----

I keep seeing links to this Boomberg story about how finagler insiders are buying shares hand over fist. The theory is that this is a wildly bullish indicator since it shows insiders have CONfidence in their finagler companies.

Of course, they fail to mention that insider selling in the finaglers over the past six months has dramatically outstripped insider buying. But who cares about minor details like that.

One of the main thrusts of the Boomberg piece is a mention that Wachovia insider Ernest Rady (Rady Trust) just bought 95,000 shares at $46 on Aug 2 and Aug 3 for $4.42 million. This is supposed to show how bullish insiders are, since "this is an extraordinary amount of activity in a name (WB) that historically doesn't see a lot of insider buying."

What Boomberg fails to mention is that the Rady Trust bought 92,000 shares of WB on Aug 2 and Aug 3 at $54 in 2006.

Almost exactly the same amount of insider buying at exactly the same time.

Looks to me like the Rady Trust buys WB every August, no matter what the stock is doing.

How is that a "bullish" indicator?

Another example of slipshod reportage, if you ask me.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...979M&refer=home

Crooks walking the Spoozer up the ledge. No divs to speak of.

Still waiting to see what happens at 1484-1485, which was my initial target off the 1370 low.

A break of the ledge indicates a possible swoon back to 1427-1432. A break below there (especially if 1415-1417 gives way) would indicate a move back to the 1370 and beyond.

But if the crooks hold the lower level, then no reason to believe they won't continue walking it up.

Still think that folks keying off 1998 will be disappointed.

We could even see the anti-1998: an Oct high, not an Oct low, followed by a Nov-Dec selloff.

Now that would come as a big surprise to a lot of people.

Just a WAG, depending on how things unfold........

According to CNBS, there is the largest T-bill auction in history today.
Doc, I know you will keep us updated on its progress.

Dow utilities index getting creamed...usually sign that financials are next

Sir, you do injustice to sanitary bags everywhere.

BZH back under 10. to stay? Note the nice shakeout move, got me on that one.

Closed Friday at the 50% correction point of the May-Aug move, maybe a good short entry point?

Critical here, futures print 1474. If we can make a new low into the 11:00 o'clock - then projecting to bounce off 1460 SnPEE futures. Currently short from early-yayem. If no new low, covering the short.

So if no new low here then back to friday high 1480/85 and sideways up.

Sorry if that sounds like we are either going up or going down

How about trying a TOL short here with a nice wide stop above the shake out zone? Say $26 or so.

That is probably true.

Ken Heebner on CNBS another major down leg, 2009 before any kind of bottom.

NDX not looking too perky this morning.....

[attachmentid=87887]

for Gonzales it was never a matter of qualifications.... it was all about LOYALTY..

Thanks, I just bought jan 08 30 putz for 7.7, 20c premium for for 5 months

Thanks for the opinion on STI DOC! This current show must seem like a re-run to you....People had no problem watching and accepting real estate appreciate 300% on both coasts over the last few years, but if one starts talking 50% correction you get crowned with tin foil even in Miami...........All the best, Darryl

Pull up Scotty! We're at the bottom of the trend line NOW.....

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Heebner is very good.

His flagship fund has outperformed the SPX by 5% annualized since 1976 when he took it over. His record is better than Billy Miller...and much better over the past few years.

He runs four funds, including a RE fund.

His calls on RE, metals, energy and the broader market have been dead-on.

As far as timing goes, he's been pretty strong there too.

For example, he publicly announced in June 2005 that his CGM Realty Fund had dumped all his homebuilder positions. He was a bit early (they peaked in July), but his thinking and timing were nearly perfect. He began buying homebuilder stocks in early 2001.

Interestingly, he moved his homebuilder cash into comm REITs in early 2005 and caught another two years worth of REIT rally.

Smart cookie.

Now he feels the rug will be pulled out of the market. He might be a month or three early. Or not. But his 30-year track record on macro calls speaks for itself.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/12/magazines/...rtune/index.htm

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/03/markets/he...lders/index.htm

buy the dip!

Big net add, and the rates have moved way back up. The squeeze looks like it's on.

PTR

Very Nice..

Keep buying bools.

At 1470 (which is here as type) SnPEE futures, closing all of early-yayem short. 1470 was original target from 1481 price.

Right now the projections show sideways mulligatawny. Not worth bull or bear. (If anything the attraction point is 5 to 7 pts up from here, scalp long!) Trade Safe, this afternoon projections taking shape.

Nap time.

Nap time is a great idea!