In times past I have looked at the PMPIX gold fund. Today at 800 gold it has arrived back to it's pinnacle of May 2006.

It could very well be that there is no looking back.

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Your post says it is yesterday 11 pm
but it is today 11 pm winter time settings for those in continental europe at green plus one

Ultimately I do want to hold GG to the top, but was thinking of rotating out now to take profit, thinking it will pull back as we are due for a major correction, and getting back in ....

XAU:

New thread.

New count.

I've been having the best time holding PMPIX since early Sept. starting at around 37. Added at 49.

Not sure if I'm having as much fun as Ageka with DROOY. No one told me not to buy PMPIX.

I agree with bearvest's count, nothing else looks reasonable anymore.

XAU:

The intra-day chart looks like an impulse may be underway somewhere in the more minor 3rd wave position of 3. Support should now reside at 180 (at wave 4 of one degree lesser trend).

If it's a perfect Elliott impulse, It should top out at 191.

Waves 1 and 5 should be equal (9+ points each) while wave 3 was roughly 161.8% of 1 (about 15+ points).

In any event, wave 5 should not exceed 3, so the outside maximum for this more minor impulse should be 196, before correcting.

XAU:

Sparing everyone a long dissertation, in a perfect Elliott world, this is the following scenario:

Rally to 191-2.
Correct to 180-2.
Rally to 203-6.

within November.

bv, your indefatigable work is appreciated. the 1-2. 1-2 feels correct. in commodities, at least in the past, wave 5 was the longest most powerful wave. still looking for 890 before anything in the way of a meaningful correction. i expect volatility to increase. bigger swings both ways. the bull likes to take as few as possible w/it. i dont expect big rallies in the dollar, although back to .8 would not surprise me. oil leading the way insures higher costs,and thus prices across the board. i still think nat gas is cheap. buckle up! acceleration can give whip lash. dharma

GG:

This is my core holding. I've acquired it at prices from $21.00 to 28.00.

It looks good on paper, but remember----I'm a Canadian.

One of the cardinal rules of Elliott is never attempt to trade a 4th wave. They're long, tedious, boring and unpredictable. Long or short, you're simply investing in grief.

Two of the cardinal rules of options trading are that:

1. Time is your enemy, and
2. The premium will be highest at wave 3 of 3.

I sold some covered calls against my core holding today. December 35's at $2.25.

With only 8 weeks left to expiry and at least 2 wave 4's just over the horizon, it looked like a good scalp.

dharma:

I agree with you on 5th waves in commodities.

But I think that only really applies to terminal "blowoffs".

If we're in a early first of 3 on XAU, I'd prefer to play matters more cautiously and more traditionally.

Thus, as I posted above, I'm still looking for corrections en route to Nirvana.

You "buy and hold bulls" have been on the right side of the trade so far.

KUDOS to you, SMSC, Meta, Charmin, and Ander for your steely resolve. If I left anyone out, P-mail me and I'll deliver a personal apology.

If gold is outperforming both the Euro, and Canadian dollar then gold really is money.

And from what I understand about Bernanke is it probably is good to just let the dollar fall as in the Japanese model of low rates, low currency and export.

Up?

Pondrous.....

I'm in the same predicament as BV. Gold is NOT outperforming the Loonie this year. Just had a 25% cut in my portfolio due to Canadian dollar performance. The CGP is well below its 800 high. Take GG for instance. A year ago a 30 dollar GG was about 34 CAD. Now about 29 CAD!

The CAD has got to be over-stretched by every technical measure but it is just not stoppable.

For the last seven years I have been holding Anglogold and swingtrading like 20%
But the fat dividends have disappeared and the swings are really unpredictable

Drooy is up like 20% but really no joy yet

Harmony is still disappointing but I think the only SA co I will add too


My joy these days is coming from a dog I held for 8 years with swingtrading that is Echo Bays aka Kinross which I hold in Candollars
and of course Meridian which I also hold in Candollars

I am neutral on Tanzanian up like 5% which I also hold in Candollars

Today is my 101 day out of 107 so I am looking to sell some more
I am currently at 96 % shares holding
I sell no physical
I am expecting a shallow correction so I am only selling to rebalance

Only I am running out of candidates to buy
I prefer marginal mines long in production with a 10 year lifespan or longer
If gold goes up 50% those should be able to go from loss to nice gains

ageka is your count based on calender days or market days. i think you stated it, but i forgot. dharma
because i am looking for this to last til the 7th at the latest

BV, are you saying I might be sorry if I attempt to trade out and back into GG at this point?

XAU Monthly

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XAU Weekly

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XAU Daily

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It is based on continuous gold so 7 days in a week and also a peak to peak count
so again by coincidence the maximum probability is on day 107 which is on 7 nov
but standard deviations ( that is volatility ) as been growing since last years peak

After that I expect a 14 to 35 days correction to make a low which means left translated bottom

But the main indicator that we may be short term near a top is that I am getting greedy

Monthly chart looks like it's in the overbought zone for stochastics. Being up there we'll have to see how the smaller time frames pan out. Might have to lower the expectations after today.

GOLD and RBY showed relative strength today along with a few others

To each his own.

Wave 4's are irrational--and they are corrective waves. Thus, the ultimate direction is down.

In my limited experience, because of their complexity, one cannot ever get an accurate count until wave 4 is complete and wave 5 is clearly in play.

Witness Thursday. Gold falls very little and reaches an intra-day high while XAU and HUI fall by a huge 3%.

This could be iv of 3 while the indices attempt to recover my target of 191-3.

Or it could be that I was premature in my switch from a bearish count to a bullish count. The sharp decline in the indices coupled with further bearish divergence in MACD says we could go significantly lower.

I'm a bull but I'm happy to hedge my long position. After iii of 3, it's just too frustrating to trade for a swing trader like myself. I'd be happy to return once a trend is eatablished. MACD divergence on the daily is ambiguous---but you know my position on "double MACD divergence".

If you don't get whipsawed let me know. I've never been able to day-trade. I could use some instruction because every time I try it I'm on the wrong side of the trade.

I'll be happy to cover at 31.50. I'd add long below 30.

[quote=Ageka,Nov 1 2007, 03:06 PM]
[quote=dharma,Nov 1 2007, 05:37 PM]ageka is your count based on calender days or market days. i think you stated it, but i forgot.  dharma
because i am looking for this to last til the 7th at the latest

[/quote]

-----------------------------------------------------------------

What about a cycle reversal or inversion?

August 16th is a clear capitulation bottom.

Could the 3 month cycle completely invert and peak out in mid-November?

Probably too late now anyways...if I was to get out it would have been closer to the highs of the day. Yeah, I have a mixed record on that. Got out of ABX.TO just under 39 - obviously could have got 42.

today sure has folks scared. me for sure. last thing everyone expects is s general rally tommorow. anyone add on todays weakness?

Yup.
Hope I'm right, added 10% into PM's and 5% into energy. Some were hits, some were hurts.

With brokerage enforcing the settlement rules where you have to wait for sells to settle which they claim takes 3 days you need cash on account if you want to buy into a stock while waiting for your sells to settle. Could make it harder to trade in and out of stocks unless you have other cash available ready and waiting.

I could sell some while $800 spot gold is tested and then cleared, I'll wait for Friday's action to decide.

SOUTHERN ARC MINERALS INC still has interest showing up in its drilling results.

[quote=bearvest,Nov 2 2007, 05:26 AM]
[quote=Ageka,Nov 1 2007, 03:06 PM]
[quote=dharma,Nov 1 2007, 05:37 PM]ageka is your count based on calender days or market days. i think you stated it, but i forgot.  dharma
because i am looking for this to last til the 7th at the latest

[/quote]

-----------------------------------------------------------------

What about a cycle reversal or inversion?

August 16th is a clear capitulation bottom.

Could the 3 month cycle completely invert and peak out in mid-November?

[/quote]

I cannot put up a chart at the moment cause my computer is running a massive download and install

There are a few basics I use
First the bottom was in 1999 in gold and my statistics start there
Second I count from top to top in monthly weekly and daily timeframe
Third I use full stochs with settings of a quarter or half of the total time
( in music a soundwave will cross the zero line at half and be extreme at a quarter Seven who plays guitar kept talking about harmonics but that is beyond me since my last class was in 1971 and I only retained basics of music and a lot more of statistics )
Fourths my statistics sofar
-one monthly cycle was short at 9 month much like a sound wave hitting a wall
cause if you want to here the deepest bass note on a record of a church organ and your music system is able to produce it You still need a music room of about 40 feets long cause you can only hear ( or feel ) that note when half of the wave fits in your room . I forgot but my living is long enough to hear 20 Herz
-All but two waves were 12 months exactly
-one wave went to 18 months which seems logical whether you call it an extension reversal or inversion or whatever 1.5 is the zero line again in music
0 and 50 and 100 and 150 and 200 etc are all zero points

To finish the story
decembre is the 9 th month and a marginal peak on the first trading day of decembre would allready count to make it 9 months
novembre at 8 months does not fit in music theory

If I average all monthly periods in any monthly period and from 1999 over all periods to now I get an amazing 107 days average in all cases be it with large deviations the last year
Today is day 102
I have a 50% cumulative probability the peak is at 107 and there it gets dicey cause I do not know what sigma to use
If I use the sigma since 1999 then at day 121 I have 97.5% total probability the rise is over on the daily cycle
All of that being said the daily could well be over today cause my system is like cardcounting in a casino

interesting, thanks ageka. i have found that markets are living and they change what they were responding to. in i think it was 84 heating oil was in a perfect fibonocci, every swing responded to the previous swing in a fib, relationship. it was amazing. @the time i was a futures trader, i hit every swing for 6 months. (made some good money). then the market went into something else and i couldnt find it!!!there are definite rhythms, and they are changing. my sense is that this market is changing. and the fundamentals are now obvious to more people. i expct bigger swings, clearing the decks, making it tougher to hold on. i handle that by trying to be in tune w/the market and not selling until parameters are met. i still think we are early out of this year + base. 800 is not attractive for me to start thinking of selling
ng has partnered w/abx. which has until the 13th to file, and take over 70%of their joint venture. ng has said it is virtually impossible for abx, @this late date to go through the porcedure. my guess is @some point they make another more realistic offer for ng
ngd- has found a big score, the volume has been light in this stock, i look for interest to start to come in.
smxmf, is an up and comer i tried to buy it yesterday @.5 correction +a few cents. no luck . i am still on the prowl
dharma

Yep, added yesterday and this morning. Now at less than 2% cash.

Dec. gold intraday new high at 802.30

at this time

Gold and the gold stocks are strongly outperforming the DOW now. Very good sign.

Woohoo! 806 bid!

Spot is at $805...whadda I do whadda I do?!?!

AVATAR UPGRADE!

juniours not reacting well to the price of gold...has me nervous

amazing day! watch ng- they get a bid from abx by the 13th! (my speculation)d
dharma
ps. any one have any names in solar? or wind? dharma

From this old article ETF Alternatives PBW is mentioned. Looking up their holdings might help. GBRC.PK has a patent pending for microwaving oil sands or some such thing.

I'd still like to think AEM is going to 63

Why does ABX outperform on the back of a terrible Q3 report?

How about that....another buy signal today.

Alt energy solar is looking good. I own this one.

ABX is going to rule the world by acquiring everything in sight with good deposits which in the long run can only help their value.

Jim Sinclair said tonight, "My greatest concern is that my longstanding price objective of $1,650 might be much too low an estimate."

Have you noticed any supply or stopping action in gold lately?

811 Dec. gold high

December Gold jumps through 802

GOLD:

If wave 5 does not exceed 3 we're looking toppy here.

Only about $10-20 left to go.

The dollar may never see a big climactic selloff as one usually expects, just a meandering decline until supply finally runs out.

GRZ.TO:

Junior Canadian gold/copper stock. Trying to develop a mine in Venezuela.

http://www.goldreserveinc.com/

Bullish triangle breakouts on the daily and weekly charts.

I'm not much into fundamentals, but if gold stays at these levels with plenty of demand, then I'd suspect earnings will turn out to be fairly good for miners.

NEM earnings report may have been the big signal when it broke through the yearly resistance at the 48 area.

Almost 52 now
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