Well the tanks are making most bears happy anyway. Are we having the turkey or beef for supper?

It looks like pancake is whats on the menu. And it's probably going to leave a mark.

For the Griz out there I give you Bull for Thanksgiving....

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For the bulls...."No soup for YOU!"

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That last hour was something. Fakeout breakdown. Steam roll some shorts..then annihilate the longs. All in a span of 1 hour.

1375 becons.............

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I think today was the biggest pre-turkey day drop ever.

added to my index shorts again today

butt gettin' real nervous here

Looks like we did get that Dow Theory Sell confirmation.

4:12 (Dow Jones) US stocks crater late, with the DJIA breaking through its
August closing low as the five-year old bull market looks dead. DJIA drops
211.10 to 12799.04, Nasdaq Comp loses 34.66 to 2562.15, S&P 500 slides 22.96
to 1416.74. S&P 500 falls into the red for 2007. Stocks under pressure early,
as overseas markets sell off, dollar hits new lows and crude hits new highs. A
fall below the DJIA's August closing low - 12845 - represents a technical
breakdown some Dow Theory proponents say signals the start of a bear market.
(PJV)

WHEN SPX gets down to 1375 I'll be covering half my shorts there....

that's the easy part

hard part is where to put protective buy stops in case Ben whips it out

Goooooooog could not hold 666 today

but RIMM closed a buckup at 111

As I alluded to previously, the Bear Market started on October 11. Now that Dow Theory is confirming we should be getting very close to a rip roaring bear market rally that will fool everybody into thinking the bull is back.

original page picture sponsor http://florianroethel.de/



how low can we go?

Bush pardoned the turkey.

He won't be as nice to Bernanke.

Expect a huge ramp Friday by midnight CNBS spotters outside the original Bentonville Wally World, who will report on the increased first hour traffic vs. last year, thereby predicting a "better than expected" retail season, thereby triggering huge ShowDawg rally.

Booster at 830 AM powered by rate-cut rumor.

Or not.

Took profits today. November made my year.

We'll see what happens next week. No way they crash this thing on a shortened trading day.

I'd forgotten about Sun. Thanks Shorty.

For those of you who won't be around tomorrow, please have a happy, safe, and enjoyable Thanksgiving!

Outside of the market....

The Eagles might need a few of these for this weekend's game against the pats. They are 23+ point underdogs.

The pole-iticians are pulling out all the stops. The problem is that they face an even larger crises next year with loan resets. California can't have homes be vacant because they will lose alot of property tax revenue. Then it'll be a vicious cycle of budget cuts, job losses, etc, which expands beyond the housing industry to everywhere else.

Hey isn't that called a recession?

In an unprecedented move designed to save thousands of California homeowners from foreclosure, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced a deal Tuesday with four mortgage lenders to freeze adjustable interest rates for some of the state's highest-risk borrowers.

The state's agreement with Countrywide Financial Corp., GMAC Mortgage, Litton Loan Servicing and HomeEq Servicing covers more than 25 percent of California's subprime mortgage loans, which generally involve homebuyers with weak credit and require periodic increases in payments after initial low-teaser rates.

The deal brokered by Schwarzenegger requires lenders to freeze low interest rates for subprime homeowners who reside in their property.
Desperate times call for a hail mary pass.

Crappy paper everywhere.

Several small townships in northern Norway went along with a securities firm's advice and invested as much as NOK 4 billion in complicated American commercial paper sold by Citibank. They now risk losing it all.

The lights have been burning late at Terra Group's office in Oslo, after the firm sold Citibank products to Norwegian townships that have gone bad.

The township politicians are both embarrassed and angry at the financial advisers who they now claim led them astray. "They think we're a bunch of small-town fools," one local mayor told newspaper Dagens Næringsliv.

The politicians remain ultimately reponsible, though, and voters aren't particularly happy as news emerges about what's become of a large chunk of their public funds.

Officials in four northern Norwegian townships (Narvik, Rana, Hemnes and Hattfjelldal) went along with an alleged recommendation by Terra Securities to invest a total of NOK 451 million in what they're now calling "high-risk structured products" offered by Citibank and sold for Citibank by Terra.

Don't trust what wall street sells you!

well why can't people use common sense

they weren't happy with INVESTING in U.S. Treasuries

so instead they GAMBLED in some unknown crap they didn't understand

to try to get something for nothing, a higher yield with no work or effort or study or learning on their part

they are victims of their own greed, not just of Citicorp's scamming

it takes two

they can't just blame it all on Citicorp

not that I don't hate Citicorp, just tired of Losers crying all the time

maybe they should call Chuck Schumer and get U.S. taxpayers to bail 'em out

Dong YM on the close. What the heck . . .

FNM settles up 1.20 -- helps a little. The highest priced publicists in the business each armed with an expense account larger than God's will be working over the press this weekend on Fannie's behalf. Expect to see a raft of articles explaining how she's really a nice girl, not at all like her dirty brother Freddie -- etc. etc.

Hopefully they'll trigger a short-covering rally into the mid 30s that will allow me to escape with minor damage from one of the worst-timed trades I've made this year.

I think the real top was indicated when WNDY abandoned this site once and for all!

After falling 15% in 3 days, Peru is now losing to last-place Ecuador by 2-0 in the first 23 minutes.

Today is definitely not Peru's day.

"They think we're a bunch of small-town fools," one local mayor told newspaper Dagens Næringsliv.

I posted a similar story last week about some local council in OZ that had invested 8 million dollars of their constituents money in CDOs in the US.

They were down $2 million on the deal but were conforted by the 'fact' that the losses were 'only' paper losses and were 'advised' that the 'investments' would come good in time.

I wonder how many people are in similar positions around the world?

It will be ugly when they realise the money has gone.

Dok
Could you please amplify your early afternoon remarks about Gold not being as safe a haven as cash and its equivalents ...

In anticipation of your comments, I'm of the school of G-shtunks that believes any amount of gold; I mean ANY amount ,say , for rexample, one pound (16 ozs troy weight) is sufficient for reestablishing a gold standard.

And this minute amount against any currency or any market,no matter the size..

How?

By sheer arithmetical decimilization...For no matter how many bills are printed , as long as they are backed by some gold, government printers are under some restraint..

Providing the number of zeroes after the decimal point is published on a daily basis.

So if the monetarists try to play fast and loose with FRN's the "zero " signals will announce to the world to get out...

It isnt the amount of gold so much as it is the ratio of G to FRN, that preserves the label:standard of value....If the USG insists on betraying our trust by going Beyond a certain ratio it will enable citizens to act with Greshamite alacrity in an instant.....something on the order of a monetary speedometer allied to a brake.

(The mechanics of tieing a unit of payment to a unit of goods can be worked out:so aditions and subtractions are immediately registered by adding or subtracting zeroes)

Any comments by others would be appreciated....

beardrech The other alternative ,which I leave for later discussion, is rationing through credit cards....where units of food are allocated.....

ACA Capital May Get `Thrown to Wolves,' JPMorgan Says (Update4)

By Christine Richard and Matt Miller

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- ACA Capital Holdings Inc., the bond insurer under scrutiny by Standard & Poor's, may have its credit rating cut, forcing banks to take on $60 billion of collateralized debt obligations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Andrew Wessel said.

S&P on Nov. 9 began considering New York-based ACA's A rating for a downgrade after it posted a $1.04 billion third- quarter loss. ACA said in a filing this week that it won't meet collateral requirements if its rating falls below A-.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...2IRM&refer=home

Ah Sudaca there you are;so pleasant to see you Senor--Tennis? forget that;betterperhaps agame of Dominoes??????

Beardrech

Ah, Sir. How kind of you to offer. Alas, how does one get into the middle of of this game once it has started ?

Ecuador 3 - 0 Peru. I'm turning the TV off and taking up dominoes.

Anybody know if Dr. Smith (AKA Shtinker) is still boolish?

The well publicized Dow Theory bear market signal will trigger short term capitulation selling leading to a sold out condition. Once that selling dries up the short covering will take over and it will be off to the races for a few days. I wouldn't care to predict here where and when that's likely to occur. The usual price and time projections in the WSE Pro market update should give you some idea.

I've been badly hoping for this scenario to play out. December seems like a good time for this to play out with all the misinformation to suggest a strong holiday consumer spending season to fake out the negative news currently.

The Euros have briefly suspended trading bonds until January, so this could be a good one.

I think Doc is right.

He just doesn't like my explanation for it.

Way too conservative.

+50 spread sounds about right.

sooner or later they will try and sell these structured investment vehicles door to door- maybe Avon or a pots and pan House party outfit can lend a hand with the marketing, and lets not forget the Shopping Network were all the deals are made instantly.

This is where it gets ugly.


Subprime woes continue for Rams

RAMS' shareholders risk losing a substantial revenue stream after they were warned yesterday that it had little chance of refinancing $6 billion worth of home loans.

The mortgage lender, which is selling its brand to Westpac for $140 million, indicated that while it still hoped to replace its US market-sourced short-term commercial paper loans with new funds, time was running out to meet a February 11 deadline.

http://business.theage.com.au/subprime-woe...71121-1byv.html

Shorty
The problem with humanity is that the minute we're born we step onto a very fast moving treadmill towards oblivion..

I amuse myself constantly by remembering how abysmally ignorant I was of everything during the major portion of my life...

Behold the paade of humanity;The constant recruitment of infants, swaddled in ignoarance,at the beginning of the parade,and this, complemented at the other end by crowds of wizened seniors arriving just in time at the cliff's edge,the entrance to eternity..

Suckers are babies in disguise...everyone is always subordinated to the expertise of fellow humans ,the majority of which are rascals..

No matter how nany times I was cheated during my lifetime the continual advice i got was:Fall on your knees and thank your lucky stars you still have a pair of balls ,both eye and scrotum...

And so began my career of continually offering thanksgiving for having received the gift of miraculously rapid healing scar tssue...

As usual,thanksgiving, I count my greatest undisguised blessing: that I will not wake up lieing on a silver salver,carried by four sudanese waiters,naked and feverish with melting butter rolling down my toches, and with an apple in my mouth surrounded by undernourished famished highly appettive friends an relatives, all,in chorus,merrily clanging their sharpened knives and forks..

beardrech And Dok my associate wishes you and yours a happy Thanksgiving-and I to everyone else..

Mies,

I think it was good that I missed the afternoon, although there are paramedics fairly near here and I hear they're pretty good with the defibrillators.

You guys who made out like bandits on the downmove at the end can just mail me checks for my usual 10% cut....

The incoming Labour party in OZ is going to inherit a poison chalice.

Inflation faces return to '70s


A HUGE spike in global inflation generated by China and India could lead to 1970s-style hyperinflation in Australia, one of the country's largest asset managers, Queensland Investment Corporation, has warned.

The analysis by QIC chief executive Doug McTaggart charts a path to spiralling inflation, huge economic consequences and plummeting sharemarkets with central banks unable to do much about it.

http://business.theage.com.au/inflation-fa...71121-1byx.html

Dow sure has the feel of drip, drip, drip, with short term panic capitulation wave right around the corner...could it be a crash??? Possibly....

Watching NDX for clues here...still has not taken out early November low, and is still hanging on to hourly support area...if this gives way over the next day or 2, could be one helluva move down a comin'

Meanwhile, your fearless leaders continue to plummet towards target zone....

Shorty keep yur eyes on the speculators - IWM

RUT down 1.2% -- TWM up 3.4%! That's my kind of double-short math!

That chart fits nicely with my estimated Greater Depression low in 2011-12...

I see it is even worse than the last update....

With monthly Commercial Real Estate charts like this, I am having a very difficult time seeing what all the bullz, that still are everywhere, are liking so much....

Not to mention the UGLIEST of the UGLY.....

The retail business has gone Ebayish. Wii's are getting stockpiled like bars of gold.

BBY Bestbuy showed some relative strength today

SPX finally closed below the right should of the Aug Inverse H&S...I have seen many times, moves accelerate, both up and down, after taking out right shoulders.....

meanwhile in OZ, there is almost a panic to get into the property market.

Its like we live in bizzaro world...