Well, apparently it was just time. Bear market rallies are vicious, and tend to last 3-6 weeks. They are designed to suck all the bulls back in and force the bears to cover their shorts so that market insiders can get short in size for the next leg down.

As Granville said so well, the rally that fools the majority.

Yep, but yesterday the pigmen left their fingerprints on the murder weapon...

[attachmentid=93076]

i probably should have sold my global mutual funds into this rally but hopefully for my sake we are going higher for the short term. Then i might stab a few of those 2x inverse china funds like FXP.

One of the biggest factors was simply time. As of yesterday the 13 week cycle low was 6 days overdue. That was one of the reasons I was so aggressive about covering shorts over the past few days. By Monday AM we were down to just one, and I will stick with that one unless it violates trend resistance.

as we have discussed before, the double funds need to be traded.

The last time the financial media called for rate cuts, the Fed granted them. Will this time be any different? mob rule for the pigsters.

The trend line from 2003 is still intact and unlike many stocks this one never broke down. It's now coiling up for a big move. The impetus could be falling corn prices?

[attachmentid=93077]

Someone's been reading the Stool...

Libor feels strain as year-end looms

By Michael Mackenzie in London

Published: November 28 2007 16:42 | Last updated: November 28 2007 16:42

The baton of tension in the money market will pass to one-month paper on Thursday as the countdown to year-end funding pressures enters its final four weeks.

Starting Thursday, one-month dollar and euro London Interbank Offered Rates, will cover the year-end turn that occurs on December 31, and as such, Libor is expected to surge.

Libor is an offered rate, a level at which banks lend to each other. In the present situation, traders report a distinct reluctance among banks to lend beyond a one-week period and say conditions are approaching the levels of stress seen back in September when the credit squeeze initially flared.

“People are waiting for the day of reckoning,” said George Goncalves, analyst at Morgan Stanley.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8447b5b4-9dd0-11...00779fd2ac.html

E-mail update i get from a CDO/Securitization research firm:

London-based asset manager Cheyne Capital is planning to transfer assets from its troubled $7 billion Cheyne Finance structured investment vehicle into a new vehicle as part of a deal to stave off realizing substantial losses in the short term.

This was one of the players Wells holds (or maybe held, now) paper from in their Master Trust for their MMF's.

nice chart...

Tough to see, but they did tick up today:

LOL...just noticed the dunce cap

Huge bounces in FRE and FNM

I've been watching this chart for days and saw this coming.
I'm ashame to say i didn't act when the break occur.

Glumberg

It's not the unsold paper I'd be worried about, but the the stuff that's been spun into CDOs and then leveraged to the hilt. As this stuff goes bad, credit will only get crunchier.

I knew we were in trouble when Drano left the other day and the markets went north instead of south....

I guess the pigmen got the handbook...

[attachmentid=93083]

How about a new channel defining the path to the next low?

That's why i'm short quite a bit of S&P futures at an average price of 1464.

Yes, Ron Insana and another Fraudster on CNBS called for the FED to announce that they would GUARANTEE GSE paper., the only way to solve the RE problem plus a BIG rate cut.
They too have noticed the LIBOR-Tbill spread and are talking about it or probably the main PIG MEN told them to start talking about it to make sure Helo Ben doesn't miss the point.

I am not sure if this journo has been reading CS,but I suspect he is right...



Linked to this, but compounding it in frightening ways, is the imminent demise of the United States economy. In fact the whisper, the subplot in economist circles, was that this election was one to lose. That whoever inherited Australia in 2007 inherited a coming economic collapse in globalised trade that would suck Australia and much of the rest of the world down with it. For two years now the best predictions have been that the subprime meltdown would act as merely the detonator of a much larger explosive charge created long ago by US consumer debt, concealed by Chinese and Arab investment in keeping that great hungry maw that is America sucking in what it could not begin to pay for. The avalanche-like fall of US house prices will be closely followed by the same in linked economies worldwide, and presage a harsh and very different world than the one we have lived in. In short, the party is over.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/28/...rid=theage:top5

See other comment about the CNBSers starting the ball rolling to get the idea out that the FED will guarantee the GSE paper.

So how far can this bounce go ? It looks and feels like it could go quite a bit like at previous IT lows.

But if there was ever a time for this kind of setup to fail, it's now.

How long can this "hide the salami" cr_p continue?

Citi thumbs their noses at reporting requirements without even a comment by the SEC. These guys create a new (likely) off the books entity and they are miraculously healed of all past sins.

This charade should be good to pump up any paper of Cheyene's.

When is the music going to finally stop in this game of musical chairs and when are they going to stop adding empty chairs?

In that case I'm absolutely petrified about tomorrow.

No, no, NO! They need to guarantee the dividend!! At least until I get a chance to dump my misbegotten FNM dong at the top of the gap ~36.75.

I think that if Drano is gonna' be gone all of the time, he shouldn't be in charge of the Markets anymore.

The latest from Bill Gross

Beware our shadow banking system
We have a secret banking system built on derivatives and untouched by regulation, says Pimco's Bill Gross. Here's how to protect your pocketbook.
By Bill Gross, founder and chief investment officer of Pimco
(Fortune Magazine) -- The tangled web of subprimes has claimed more than its share of victims in recent months: homeowners by the hundreds of thousands, to be sure, but also those who created, packaged, insured, distributed, and ultimately bought what should have been labeled "junk mortgages" but which by a masterstroke of marketing genius received a more respectable imprimatur.

"Skim milk masquerades as cream," warned Gilbert and Sullivan over a century ago, and sure enough, today's subprimes, packaged into financial conduits with monikers such as SIVs and CDOs, pretended to be AAA-rated cubes of butter.

Financial institutions fell for the ruse, and now we all suffer the consequences. Defaults are rising, the dollar's sinking, and -- good Lord! -- even Google's (Charts, Fortune 500) stock price is going down. Something must really be wrong.

It is. What we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern-day banking system, a complex of leveraged lending so hard to understand that Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke required a face-to-face refresher course from hedge fund managers in mid-August.

My Pimco colleague Paul McCulley has labeled it the "shadow banking system" because it has lain hidden for years, untouched by regulation, yet free to magically and mystically create and then package subprime loans into a host of three-letter conduits that only Wall Street wizards could explain.

It is certainly true that this shadow system, with its derivatives circling the globe, has democratized credit. And as the benefits of cheaper financing became available to the many as opposed to the few, placating and calming waves of higher productivity and widespread diversification led to accelerating economic growth, incomes, and corporate profits.

http://cnnmoney.printthis.clickability.com...&partnerID=2200

Cramer on CNBS, Arabs are saving C just like 1990. More bank mergers are coming. FED is fully engaged just like 1990. The bottom is in just like 1990 Buy the banks. Buy teck, Buy GS:blink:
The operative guestion is, will the same play work again.

Here is Bill Gross' answer.
How does one protect during a run "deposits" that no one can see? To be blunt, what does it mean for your pocketbook?

To understand where future losses may lie, it makes sense to ask which investments did especially well during the shadow's formation. Home prices have been the obvious first hit -- down 5% nationwide already, with perhaps another 10% to go over the next several years.

Following in lockstep have been financial stocks with subprime exposure, to be joined in short order by consumer-based equities, as jobs and disposable income falter. These investments thrived as the shadow worked its voodoo; now its curse will sap money from the pockets of any and all who believed in its black magic.

Importantly, add to the list of investment victims the strength and viability of our national currency. The SIVs and CDOs of years past supported the dollar at unrealistic levels as foreign investment in the hundreds of billions poured into our markets.

Now, with confidence waning, the visible but unphotographable run from George Washington into the euro, the yen, and other currencies is under way. Protecting an American-made pocketbook should begin by seeing that purchasing power is more likely to be enhanced via investments in strong currencies, not weak ones. More than ever, your portfolio should have a international perspective and include non-dollar-denominated assets.

Investors should anticipate that the shadow's successor will be a more conservative, less risk-oriented banking system. The shadow writes, and having writ will move on to new sources of wealth creation in faraway corners of the globe. Go with it.


http://cnnmoney.printthis.clickability.com...&partnerID=2200

Could of fooled me, I think Suds is a wizard

Subprime breaks
Rates are rosy

Doesn't anyone ever go to jail for all the lies in the marketplace?

Do not have the link but thought this was interesting...there is a reason oil is this high

November 28, 2007: CHINESE TIGER HAS NOTHING IN TANK by Rowan Callick, China correspondent, The Australian

CHINA is running out of fuel. Police are guarding petrol stations in several inland provinces to prevent fights, as shortages of petrol and diesel are causing huge queues of trucks, buses and cars.
In Kunming, capital of the southwestern province of Yunnan, 1000 trucks are stranded.
A truck driver named Li told the Chuncheng Evening News he had been stranded at the Stone Tiger Gate petrol station for three days after searching for fuel in other places, but failing. He said his delivery date was way overdue.
Another driver, at Geiju city, said a job that would have taken one day in the past, now took three: one on the road, two queuing for fuel.
Nine days ago, a truck driver was reported to have been stabbed to death in central Anhui province after a row about queuing.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...80-2703,00.html

If you are a teenager pimping penny stocks thru the internet, then yes the SEC will nail your arse.

If you are the failed CEO of a large multinational company, then you get a $100 million golden parachute for screwing up.

Nothing has changed.

I wasn't familiar with all those new-fangled Kryptonites. I guess they got me with the GOLD stuff.

I knew I should have closed those positions sooner....

Finally a ray of hope for bears.

this could be a short worth 20 points

??

The system normally only comes into effect when the market or stock goes down and the longs lose money.

For example the Hunt brothers and their control of the silver markets only mattered when the market started going down. Did not matter so long as the market was going up in price.

Only exception seems to be when some clerk gets inside information and makes money using the information. The pigmen then think that the clerk took the profits from them and the clerk goes to jail.

It is the nature of people not to care so long as the shenanigans increase market prices. After all the "bears" seem to be in a distinct minority of the populace.

this one is about to lose it as well

[attachmentid=93085]

AA is a stock that I plan to buy a lot of puts on. Since 2004 it has gone absolutely nowhere despite metals boom and high Chinese demand. The stock has been been trading in a range between $26 and $37 until rumors of a buyout send it way above its upward resistance last July. But here we are again at the $37 resistance level as Alcoa retraced about 62% of its move from $30 and turned down. I would expect it to re- test that $30 level again.

Last quarter AA broke even before reporting proceeds from its sale of "investment assets" of $1.7 billion that created illusion of profitability. Also they had pre-announced some $800 million of restructuring costs of which I could only find 1/2 or about 400 million that they actually took. I have no doubt that before next quarter, investors won't be so kind as to overlook this buffoonery again.

But just as importantly, the price of aluminum from same period LY has declined by about 10% from 120 to 112.

I almost forgot the best part. Alcoa is one of those companies that greatly relied on expertise of MBAs and consultants who advised it that they could save a lot of money by moving their production overseas. The only problem with that is that it works very well when dollar is rising. However when cost of labor and material is rising faster than prices in US dollars while prices go down, they are screwed.

Oh now I get it............the C deal

we'll give you $7.5 Bil cash,

and we'll let oil prices drop 10 bucks

you kick us back $3 Bil in interest over 4 years and set us up with some convertibles we can make a killing on by shamtrade-circlejerk-goosing the stock back up when the time comes,

and you agree to fire 40,000 American workers

deal?

deal

Maybe they also came to an understanding about not yapping so loudly about dropping the dollar peg.

Since the retailers and banksters couldn't put an even remotely believable spin on their news, The Boyz had to line the SM planets up using seasonality, EOM, rate cut noise and bond-shorting. Pretty impressive show, I must admit.

A 3-6 week rally seems to fit.

From my perspective, the two actions are not related.

What is it? I can't read the chart as it is very blurry.

Doc Is this in the local papers? I can't get the link to open

Florida School Fund Rocked by $8 Billion Pullout Amid Defaults

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Florida local governments and school districts pulled $8 billion out of a state-run investment pool, or 30 percent of its assets, after learning that the money- market fund contained more than $700 million of defaulted debt

Gloomberg
Gee, I wonder if the ratings people could have required funds to be set aside for such future events and then granted a high rating.

Q: How will the lost $700 Million be made up?

1. The sellers of the fraudulent securities will publicly apologize and refund the losses

2. The fund manager who knowingly flushed the public money in exchange for kickbacks from the sellers will be sent to arse pounding prison until he pays it all back out of his own pocket, by earning money turning tricks

3. It will not be made up, the public employees' pensions will be reduced by an equivalent amount

4. An additional $700 million will be ripped outta the taxpayers' arses

Record layoff is coming to financial service industry.

Spoke with a guy at Citi today, who commented on GS's situation. GS basically says that they did not lose money in credit turmoil. The Citi guy said "Bullsh*t. Wait for them to confess like WFC, who said the similiar thing not too long ago". The credit market group the Citi guy worked in is going to cut two-thirds of its staff.

it still amazes me how our culture prefers denial to reality, and how quickly we'll embrace false hopes of an easy way out

case in point, today's stock market rally

all is well?

sure it is

just buy GOOG and AAPL right here

or even better, buy some GM common, it's rock-solid

and IBM's books are clean as a whistle, no problems there at all

meanwhile, over in the real world, hundreds of thousands of underwater homoaners are depleting the last of their Ditech funds hiring foreclosure lawyers in a desperate attempt to avoid losing their homes

bullish

Top new carears for laid off bankers

1. Starbucks Barista

2. Grocery store bagger
"Paper or plastic, ma'am?"

3. Walmart Greeter
"Good evening and welcome to Walmart."
"Good evening and welcome to Walmart."
"Good evening and welcome to Walmart."
(repeat 25,000 times per day)

4. McDonald's night shift drive-thru window target gettin' coca-cola splashed in their face by drunk teenagers, or burger flipper gettin' bitch-slapped by a pimple-faced 19-year-old illegal immigrant manager for not keepin' the grill shiny clean

5. emini daytrader

EFII broke through resistance, RSI went over 50.