Lots of good news today. A run on a government for government money market fund in FL. The tip of the iceberg.

Yeah!

______________

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/29/business...d-forecast.html

White House Issues Upbeat Economic Forecast

WASHINGTON, Nov. 29 — The White House issued an economic forecast today that calls for “solid growth” through next year, a prediction that is more optimistic than that of the Federal Reserve and far more optimistic than those of many analysts on Wall Street.

The administration predicted that the economy will expand by 2.7 percent in 2008, that unemployment would remain below 5 percent and that the outlook would be even better in 2009. By contrast, Fed officials are predicting “subpar” growth through next year, starting with a sharp slowdown over the next six months. The “central tendency” of forecasts by Fed policy makers is for growth to slow to between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent next year.

The positive attributes of a CEO-turned-US President.

- Lying to shareholders until the last minute.
- My way or the highway type of governance.


Let's have all our Presidents be former CEOs.

You forgot one elh.....valueing loyalty above competence...

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peix today ... wow

You're not channeling wndy by any chance, are you?

I think Michael Dell must have died in the middle of the conf.call.

The stock is down 10% after hours.

Yes, there's a move that seems well-grounded in fundamentals and excellent management. I'm sure all the people that bought it when it was basing at 9, and at 8, are happy. Not to mention the ones who bought at 15.

%#&@ I covered my short a long time ago around 13, and thought I had done well when it spiked to 15. #@&% &*#@

Here's a yearly chart.

I channel thee Windyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy...

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Someone channel me?

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"Dell reported net income of $766 million, or 34 cents a share, vs. $601 million, or 27 cents a share at this time last year.

Excluding items, the company earned 35 cents a share, meeting analysts' consensus estimate.

The company's operating profit only rose to 5.3% of revenue from 5.1% a year ago, while its income tax rate dropped in the quarter to 18.2% from 24.9% a year earlier."

"Dell Fails To Delight"

I guess that depends on your perspective. If I were short Dell, I'd be delighted.

I guess the gold Kryptonite did sap my powers. because I see things closed at about the same place as when I left for the afternoon.

So I guess it doesn't matter to anyone but me that I'll be gone most of tomorrow too.

the bulls are sounding a little shrill if you ask me.

Every bull and his dog is using the bad news/market rally thesis as proof of happy days being just around the corner.

Droke has even included newspaper clippings in his latest offering...

With the bullish signals piling up more and more, we can confidently ignore the gloom and doom being spread by the financial press. The message that matters most is not contained in the headlines but in the tape. And that message is saying: "Fear not, happier days are on the way!"

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8909.htm

Historical TED spread (spread between 3m T-bills & 3m LIBOR).

Today it hit a whopping 230 bps at one point.

1987

like I said a few months back, they were manipulating it down in preparation for a takeover

looks like the ethanol merger mania is underway now

maybe they take it out at 20

Anyone know when the text of heloben's speech will be released? Or in other words, when will the evening jam start? Is he talking before the lunchtime break for the Japanese market or during it?

Oh, I don't know about that! My old girlfriend was asking me about you....she's kinda ugly though...

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good call shorty .. are you long ?

You liked her better before the surgery?

All I know is that IF this market needs a "Wall of Worry" to climb....it sure has it!

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It's just a question of time.

LeeWhee always referred to him as "Joke."

It's easy to get carried away with sentiment. And I am clearly as bearish as I have ever been right now. So I double check the facts again and again ... and I come back even more bearish

Isn't that kind of a personal question?

okay the markets should be heading down from here. 200points on the dow at least.

thinks about dia 131

The bottom line is that we're seeing a massive credit crunch like I've never seen. And it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

Not to mention another oxymoron

PLS ~ did you figure out if that flag was bearish on the NAZ chart I posted it was pretty bullish. But that is exhausted now. Little down sde coming.

The initial drop in July is past us.

The October 15 warnings and events are past us.

The mid November decline is past us.

Citi thumbs its nose at reporting requirements with impunity.

I agree that seemingly things are getting worse day by day, but we are still above the bottom than we had in July and we have not even taken out those lows.

Just what is it going to take for reality to set in? Or is it not at bad as we portray it to be and the President's assessment today is correct? I do not believe so, but Wall Street does not see it my way.

I know that you can not answer it, but I just need some sort of reality check. Which of the two scenarios is really real?

It's the end of the world as we know it........ and I feel fine

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTOaxzG0GdU&feature=related

Q's down 0.20 after hours on DELL news.

...tell me about the rabbits.....

Just got a spammail entitled "It's time you became proud of your willy."

Is this what they had in mind?

I dunno... but I feel like I felt in early 2000 watching the Nasdaq @ 3800 keep going up, rechecking the facts, deciding this was absolutely nuts, then watching the Nasdaq go even higher to 4200, then rechecking and cross checking the facts, coming back even more bearish, seeing the Nasdaq keep going to 5000 ...questioning my sanity and almost throwing in the towel at the exact top.

In the short term, the market can go higher, but at some point, the sheer magnitude of the credit crisis is going to hit it. To me, it's a question of when, not if.

Indeed, you have to look at everything from a different perspective today. It's like the world has turned upside down.

Which, of course, is right side up in your part of the world.

Bungster

Imagine someone saying:I'm going to squeeze that Sunny Ball of Fire in the sky between my hands and wear it like a hat...

or

Make myself into a Yahrtzeit candle for the world

or

Heaven to Earth : Your Arterial System is OK but that Spinal Column| signifies that Your smoking to much!

So idiosyncratic are the images that translating them into appropriate words make one dangerously close to being put into an asylum...

beardrech: I really love Stoolie illustrations-Speak and Sudaca and others too numerous...keep em coming


EDIT--Furthermore the next time you hear a debate between theologians about the significance of one thing versus another, think of these expostulations of mine as a primitive attempt at an early form of worship---

So infinite are the perspectives of the universe...

Which why I flipped my avatar.

Every time I see a post with your new avatar I start to turn my head 90 degrees before I realize that I don't need to do that....

Sudaca

Lets give it a name--Asymptot-e-osis....the feeling one gets from apparently
unending drift towards a crash--( as the curve gets closer and closer to smashing into the ordinate without ever reaching it}...

beardrech

2faas,

Holy crap.

yes and I bought more today AH on the dip

Stocks move at their own pace. There's nothing new here. Too much attention to the news.

The Queen Mary doesn't turn on a dime.

But she would a trick for one.

I dont care if the Queen will turn for a nickle or a dime--a half a dollar or two bucks--We still know what she is:All we're doing is dickering over the price...

beardrech

It continues to stupefy me that just about everyone still tries to relate market movements to the news background and the economic data. Successful traders pay no attention to that stuff, except for entertainment purposes.

It's really very simple. The market follows two things, which are interrelated.

Liquidity and cycles.

I guess some people take pleasure in tearing their hair out everyday rather than reading the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition and relaxing.

it's over, git out

The markets (especially overnight futures) may respond positively to Bendover Ben's speech tonight...

But, we should remember that his stated intention is to "manage expectations", and whether or not the Fed actually subsequently follows through with a particular action is another matter.

With each passing day, events occur which further destabilize an already crumbling financial system.

The sheer number of developing crises and the complex inter-linkages between them will, IMHO, overwhelm government and Fed efforts to "contain" the collapse and minimalize the damage.

The developing run on governmental investment funds is just another example of un-anticipated outlier events to yet come.

Decades of overall prosperity and stability have led folks to be complacent and lax with their money affairs.

It's so very difficult to see any positives to the current outlook...

I dont care if the Queen will turn for a nickle or a dime--a half a dollar or two bucks--We still know what she is:All we're doing is dickering over the price...

beardrech

I don't think the futures like Ben's speech. Dunno why, he says the Fed has to stay vigilant to ensure the health of the markets. (translation: whatever Bankie wants, Bankie gets... the new version of the famous song from the aptly named musical "Damn Yankees")

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
National and regional economic overview
At the presentation of the Citizen of the Carolinas Award, Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, Charlotte, North Carolina
November 29, 2007

Good evening. I thank the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce for bestowing on me this year’s Citizen of the Carolinas Award. I deeply appreciate the honor, and I am grateful for the opportunity it gives me to speak to you this evening. I am also delighted to be here in Charlotte. My wife Anna and I are looking forward to visiting family and friends during our time here in the Queen City.

The focus of my brief remarks this evening will be the Charlotte region and how the area and the economy have changed since I regularly visited my grandparents here some four-and-a-half decades ago. First, though, I would like to share a few thoughts on the U.S. economy and the considerations that we at the Federal Reserve will be weighing as we prepare for our policy meeting on December 11, less than two weeks from now.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy making arm of the Federal Reserve System, last met on October 30-31. At that meeting, the Committee cut its target for the federal funds rate, the key policy interest rate, by 25 basis points (1/4 of a percentage point), following a cut of 50 basis points in September. Economic growth in the period leading up to the October meeting had proven quite strong, as confirmed by this morning’s figures on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). At its meeting, however, Committee members took the view that tightening credit conditions--the product of ongoing stresses in financial markets--and some intensification of the correction in the housing sector were likely to restrain economic activity going forward. Specifically, growth appeared likely to slow significantly in the fourth quarter from its rapid third-quarter rate and to remain sluggish in early 2008. The Committee expected that economic growth would thereafter gradually return to a pace approaching its long-run trend as the drag from housing subsided and financial conditions improved. Inflation was seen as edging down next year, approaching rates consistent with price stability; however, the Committee remained concerned about the possible effects of higher energy costs and the lower foreign exchange value of the dollar, especially the risk that they might lead to an increase in the public’s long-term inflation expectations.

How has the economic picture changed in the month since that meeting? As is often the case, the incoming economic data have been mixed. In the market for residential real estate, indicators of construction and home sales have continued to be weak. In contrast, the labor market remained solid in October, with some 130,000 new jobs added to private-sector payrolls and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.7 percent. Claims for unemployment insurance have drifted up a bit in recent weeks, although, on average, they have remained at a level consistent with moderate expansion in employment. We will, of course, have the labor market report for November next week, and in the coming days we will continue to draw on anecdotal reports, surveys, and other sources of information about employment and wages. Continued good performance by the labor market is important for maintaining the economic expansion, as growth in earnings helps to underpin household spending.

With respect to household spending, the data received over the past month have been on the soft side. The Committee will have considerable additional information on consumer purchases and sentiment to digest before its next meeting. I expect household income and spending to continue to grow, but the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter credit conditions, and declines in stock prices seem likely to create some headwinds for the consumer in the months ahead.

Core inflation--that is, inflation excluding the relatively more volatile prices of food and energy--has remained moderate. However, the price of crude oil has continued its rise over the past month, a rise that will be reflected in gasoline and heating oil prices and, of course, in the overall inflation rate in the near term. Moreover, increases in food prices and in the prices of some imported goods have the potential to put additional pressures on inflation and inflation expectations. The effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on maintaining the public’s confidence that inflation will be well controlled. We are accordingly monitoring inflation developments closely.

The incoming data on economic activity and prices will help to shape the Committee’s outlook for the economy; however, the outlook has also been importantly affected over the past month by renewed turbulence in financial markets, which has partially reversed the improvement that occurred in September and October. Investors have focused on continued credit losses and write-downs across a number of financial institutions, prompted in many cases by credit-rating agencies’ downgrades of securities backed by residential mortgages. The fresh wave of investor concern has contributed in recent weeks to a decline in equity values, a widening of risk spreads for many credit products (not only those related to housing), and increased short-term funding pressures. These developments have resulted in a further tightening in financial conditions, which has the potential to impose additional restraint on activity in housing markets and in other credit-sensitive sectors. Needless to say, the Federal Reserve is following the evolution of financial conditions carefully, with particular attention to the question of how strains in financial markets might affect the broader economy.

In sum, as I have indicated, we will be receiving a good deal of relevant information in the coming days. In making its policy decision, the Committee will have to judge whether the outlook for the economy or the balance of risks has shifted materially. In doing so, we will take full account of the implications for the outlook of both the incoming economic data and the ongoing developments in the financial markets.

Economic forecasting is always difficult, but the current stresses in financial markets make the uncertainty surrounding the outlook even greater than usual. We at the Federal Reserve will have to remain exceptionally alert and flexible as we continue to assess how best to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability in the United States.