The bulls took it to the bears with an in your face open, but the bears kept pushing, pushing, pushing. In the end it was still a victory for the bovines, but they were bloodied.

Dumped some puts over the last few days to reload.

This will be fun. I wouldn't be shocked if the ATH gets taken out on the indexes.

I read Roubini's free stuff. What I have been impressed with is his analysis of the situation. He was on this Ponzi loan stuff about the same time some of the sharper stoolies were.

The tip of the iceburgh?

Friday, November 30, 2007
Montana Fund Withdrawals

From MarketWatch: Florida's investment woes spark subprime fears in other states

Florida halted withdrawals from a $15 billion local-government fund on Thursday after concerns over losses related to subprime mortgages prompted investors to pull roughly $10 billion out of the fund in recent weeks.

Other states are experiencing similar problems on a smaller scale.

The Montana Board of Investments, which manages the state's money, has seen $247 million withdrawn by local governments in the past three days from a $2.5 billion money-market-like fund called the Short Term Investment Pool.

"We've had some local government withdrawals in the past few days because of reports about Florida's problems," Carroll South, executive director at the Montana Board of Investments, said in an interview on Thursday.

Rating agency Standard & Poor's warned last month that it could downgrade a $4.8 billion investment pool run by King County, Wash., because of potential subprime exposures.
In addition to potential "bank runs" on these funds, another key concern is if other funds stop investing in asset backed CP - making the credit crunch worse

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

Those shock waves could travel overseas and circle the globe a couple of times.

Except for tech, I've decided that today was an unqualified victory for the bulls. The last short on the WSE Pro chart pick list hit its trailing stop, so there are no shorts on the list for the first time in a few months. The one long appears poised for an epic upside breakout. Stay tuned for tonight's update in the WSE Pro!

Many tanks to the many of you who do subscribe! I sincerely appreciate it, and because of your help and support our subscriber community is steadily growing!

Been raining in San Diego all day. Storm is out of the south and a warm steady light rain. I can't remember any decent rain in the past six months.

i just want to see if some of the gap gets filled.

The stories on the FL state run money market fund shut down are not important enough to make the front pages of the local papers in S. FL. They are buried in the State news section.

These people have no clue.

Hey Doc,

Did you hear about CIBC's $10B subprime exposure today. Wasn't it just a few months ago they were saying, "Our subprime exposure is minimal". These Canadian banks kill me. I hear that Royal Bank's exposure may be the worst. They sure know how to keep things under wraps up here.

Credit Suisse is out pushing a bid list to liquidate a 500 million dollar CDO. They just tried to dump Adams Square a couple weeks ago. Would love to know what the bids on these things are...if any. I can't find if Deutsche even got bids on Carina.

*DJ Venezuela Chavez Threatens To Cut Off Oil To US

*DJ Venezuela Chavez: PdVSA Could Stop US Oil Shipments Monday


*DJ Venezuela Chavez: Military And Workers To Guard Oil Fields

evil kneivel dies at 69


cant post link....on my pda

Doc, I have seen the WSE quoted in a couple of different places recently. You are making progress.

My guess is the newsmedia has been told to play this down. They don't want to be accused of CRYING FIRE in a theater.

Oh, it's gonna be filled...just give it some time.

It sounds like he is trying to pump the crude price. I sold my last oil stocks yesterday.

LeeWhee's fav Wrong Way Carl Futile says he is "confident that new bull market highs lay ahead."

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

I guess when your own people turn against you, it's time to amp up the "yanqui go home" rhetoric. I must say that he and Mahmoud make a charming couple.

Yea, and I'm still long... Maybe it is time for Carl to be right??

Hey, I'll flip the other way when I gets me signal.....no bear signal yet....

*DJ Poole: Fed Doesn't Follow Mkts; Must Be Willing To Surprise

*DJ Poole: Fed, Mkts Usually In Line With Rate Expectations

*DJ Poole:Financial Healing Stopped Or Reversed In Recent Weeks

*DJ Poole: Conditions Aren't The Same As They Were In Late Oct


*DJ Poole Says 'Puzzled' By Recent Stock Mkt Volatility


*DJ Poole: Sees Caution But No Evidence Of Active Credit Crunch

if these clowns were Pinnochio, their noses would be miles long by now.

Man o Man...there are so many bearish monthly charts after the close today that I don't even know where to begin...

Here's a classic Falling 3 Methods on the Monthly RUT.....just as we get a double MACD cross....While anything is possible in these crazy markets, it just really doesn't get setup any better than this gang...

This is a formation which shows the market taking a breather before continuing it's downtrend. Notice that a new high is not seen during the 4 remaining days of this formation. This gives little confidence to the bulls, making way for the short sellers.

If crude prices continue to fall I'd suspect the pigmen will generate lots of news articles on how its going to provide better corporate earnings even if there ain't much of story for earnings now. Add a little dollar deliverance and they probably got a better story.

Now lets add up the good stories and technical data that will spin higher stock prices for some holiday cheer.

Bargain Basement stock prices on sale
Oil falling
Bankster bailouts
Rate cuts
Shorts covering

Anything else?

DEJA VU???

Month 1 of the "18 months of Hell" in the books on the REITs

They hafta respect mah authoritah.

If you would give me the name of the reporter on that I will send them an email proving, in the Fed's own words posted on the NY Fed website, that either Poole is a fool, or a damned liar.

The Fed's Open Market trading desk has a conference call with the 21 primary dealers EVERY SINGLE MORNING to determine--

HOW THE DAY MIGHT UNFOLD IN THE SECURITIES MARKET AND HOW THE DEALERS' TASK OF FINANCING THEIR SECURITIES POSITIONS IS PROGRESSING.




Liar Liar, pants on fire!



This is a direct quote from the NY Fed website.

Well, not the liar, liar part.

Doc do you still think there will be no rate cut at the next fed meeting?

Been raining here in Ireland too. Feels like its been raining all year. Wish it would stop. Been much wetter here than normal (due to the jet stream hading further south than usual). If only I could move some of this water cheaply to San Diego.

speakin' o' fools and damnation liars,

let's see how Crammer's latest touts are doin',

another big up day on the stock market....

hey, what the ???

not from a reporter but a direct quote from Poole himself

I tell ya Doc I cant take this crap much longer....

Hi Doc,

I can't tell if I am still paying or not? I've been away for a while. Can you check on my subscription? It's says I am still subscribed when I try to sign up but won't accept my log in?

Sorry to bug ya.

IJ

we are rapidly approaching the point of no return if you ask me.

As Doc said earlier most people are clueless.

This is akin to a huge bushfire about to engulf the whole world,but because the average smuck can't see the fire on TV he doesn't realise the danger.

Here in OZ the most senior politicians were shocked by the recent election bloodbath.

As were most of the media and the general public.

I often say that if you don't make the hard decisions yourself,someone else will.

Overpaid teachers (insert any govt paid employee)will have their wages and conditions slashed by market forces.

Inflation is like a huge wrecking ball just smashing the system to pieces.

It is the ultimate vicious circle.

Higher costs lead to higher wages which lead to higher costs until the whole system implodes.


Florida Schools Struggle to Pay Teachers Amid Freeze (Update2)

By David Evans

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- School districts, counties and cities across Florida sought to raise cash after being denied access to their deposits in a $15 billion state-run investment fund.

The Jefferson County school district was forced to take out a short-term loan to cover payroll for the 220 teachers and other employees in the system after $2.7 million it held in the pool was frozen yesterday. At least five other districts also obtained last-minute loans, said Wayne Blanton, executive director of the Florida School Boards Association.

``The unthinkable and the unimaginable have just happened here in Florida,'' said Hal Wilson, chief financial officer of the Jefferson County school district, located 30 miles (48 kilometers) east of the state capital Tallahassee. ``What we just experienced here is a classic run-on-the bank meltdown.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...8p3g&refer=home

I generally don't have an opinion on that. Did I give that impression somewhere? If so, I should correct it.

I honestly don't know. So far, they are still trying to defend the 4.50 rate. Before the first cut, they were telegraphing 1/4 and then went 1/2.

The money markets are so disjointed and screwed up, T-bill rates so low while other rates seemingly under some upward pressure. If they cut, they won't have to tighten liquidity so much. But obviously there are downsides to a cut.

I don't think it's a good idea to try to guess, but if there are low risk ways to structure trades based on what you think that they will do, and how the market will react, then by all means it's worth a try. But I think it's better to stick with the charts and then react to the market reaction if it calls for a fade.

I understand that the reporter was quoting Poole. But doesn't the article have a byline? I want to contact the reporter. There's a story there, and I want the reporter to have it.

Tanks!

Well, BBY Bestbuy needs your help, but I don't think they're going to save you 30% off the price of an HP laptop computer.

If you didn't know it, you could shave 30% off the price of a HP Pavillion laptop by using a coupon code before December 8th. Skip the stores and forget ebay.

30% off $999+ HP Pavilion Notebook PCs coupon code NB3075 [Exp 12/8]

I used the code today and it worked.

http://www.shopping.hp.com/webapp/shopping...m/psg/notebooks

Lucy, your email address bounced.

Reference Scottrade system vs Etrade

I guess I just look at it as an inconvience...I have to take the time to learn a new layout... once I get acclimated it won't make a difference.

My son has had Scottrade for years and he loves it and recomends both system and company

I too had a few problems getting my system setup, linked and approved , But.... I really do have to give Scottrade the benifit of the doubt...They had a huge influx of new customers from Etrade ( and I bet some from Schawb as there were rumers about them having bad Morgage paper too) They probably had to add a buch of new servers and I bet their IT staff was working triple time setting up those servers, setting up new accounts and communicating with Etrade to transfer all those accounts..

I have already found some new trading tools that I find interesting.

I'm No Einstein but it seems to me that any personal short term discomfort is worth it. Etrade is a poorly run company in my opinion, and I have worked for some good ones.

Etrade may come out of this or they may be the next enron, better to be safe than sorry.

FYI the Manager/Broker(s) at the local office here very open to spending some quality one on one time reviewing/training on their system. I suggest you call your team and ask.


NE

Boy, it sure depends on your local office. There are 2 Scottrade offices here that I've visited. One was great, very helpful. The other could hardly be bothered to say hello as they reluctantly gave me papers to open an account and couldn't take the time to answer any questions.

There weren't any other customers there, either.

I've found a portrait of Dr. Poole, an obvious paragon of selfless public service.

Shorty- you are always good for at least one hearty belly laugh per day! I must thank you my friend!

Did someone say belly?

here's the article


DJ Fed's Poole: Moral Hazard Wouldn't Prevent Large Rate Cut


By Brian Blackstone

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William
Poole on Friday said "moral hazard" concerns that rate reductions might spur
risky investor behavior wouldn't prevent him from cutting rates aggressively
if he thought it was warranted.

"I wouldn't want people in the markets to believe that I, at any rate, would
be so concerned about the moral hazard argument that I wouldn't possibly
advocate a 25-basis-point or a 50-basis-point cut (in the federal-funds rate)
or whatever might be on the table," Poole told reporters following a speech at
the Cato Institute, a think tank.

He also said some of the past improvement in financial market conditions has
reversed since the Fed's meeting in late October, echoing recent comments by
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn.

Financial conditions "are not the same as they were" when the Fed met on
Oct. 30-31, Poole said.

The Fed lowered the target fed-funds rate 25 basis points at that meeting
and has lowered it a total of 75 basis points since September. But at the
October meeting, officials said they saw the risks between growth and
inflation as roughly balanced, which usually signals that they aren't likely
to lower interest rates again soon.

But remarks this week by Bernanke and Kohn dwelling on recent financial
turmoil and its potential effect on the economy have spurred hopes that the
Fed will slash rates again when it meets on Dec. 11.

There had been "genuine evidence" that markets were settling down when the
Fed met in October, Poole said, adding that some of that progress has
"stopped" or reversed in the most recent weeks.

Poole also defended the Fed's decisions to lower interest rates in recent
months even as the economy grew at rapid rates.

"I think monetary policy has to operate on the basis of forecasts," Poole
said.

Poole was asked why the Fed has lowered the discount and fed funds rates
even though the economy grew 3.8% in the second quarter and 4.9% in the third.

Poole said he expects "somewhat softer conditions" in the fourth quarter,
but that the Fed can't do anything to affect conditions so quickly since
policy works with a lag. Policy, instead, has been aimed at preventing a
"cumulating problem" next year.

Speaking about the housing market, Poole noted that problems there have
shaved about one percentage point off gross domestic product growth on an
annualized basis since the middle of last year. He said it "makes sense" for
the Fed to try and prevent "collateral damage" on the rest of the economy.

Poole also dismissed any idea that the Fed follows markets when it comes to
setting monetary policy. Markets and the Fed usually align ahead of Fed
meetings, Poole said, citing research he has done at the St. Louis Fed. But
the Fed, he added, must be willing to take actions that are contrary to market
hopes.

Poole said it is conceivable that data between now and the Dec. 11 Fed
meeting - such as the November employment report due next week - could jar
those expectations if they were to come in strong, though he noted he was
speaking hypothetically.

"You could have a string of such (strong) reports," Poole said, which is why
he said he reserves his final judgment on rates until the day of the meeting.

Poole also said markets should set exchange rates, not central banks.


-By Brian Blackstone, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-828-3397;
brian.blackstone@dowjones.com

I was trying to verify claims made here about Scottrade's capital ratios and and relative safety.

I was not able to find Scottrade's SEC filings that would provide this information. As such, I'm stumped about the claims made here.

Yes, we got a solid rain in LA first time in a long while. Feels lovely and came just 4 days after I put in my winter vegetable garden. A real blessing.

Excellent! I have more good news, Bill Rempelstiltskin has surfaced on Safehaven saying:



I will sleep better this weekend knowing we have not one but two almost infalible contrarian signals.

Actually, our favorite Venezuelan Jimmy Hoffa has won 3 elections with 60+% mandates. A humorous though locally serious claim, in the current campaign by one of Chavez govmint ministers, is that a certain sector (read CIA backed elites) has been hoarding toilet paper in an attempt to create shortages and discontent among voters.

I read Genesis at Market Ticker and Sinclair at his site, Mish's and others. some say the situation is fixable while others say noway. I'm referring to liquidity and lack thereof which translates to no credit available which is where we are now between the banks themselves. It's looking as if there is not enough currency on God's green earth to pay the debt accumulated to date and with declining values in worth, debt grows daily. This means that the total loss of all bad investments can't be covered conventionally and the controlled implosion continues. Gotta hand it to the Fed, so far, for tip toeing through a mine field with blinders on and living to talk about it.

Some say write your Congressman other's say Congress is the problem other's just report what they see.

The Fed are acting like the major banks must be saved to save the Fed itself for without the major banks there is no Fed. If the Fed pumps only to supply the major banks I don't expect it to trickle down except for their pet stock picks. Middle Land is allowed to rot with cheap short term rates and high long term rates which gives you what......hyperstagflation?

Some say the dollar will become wanted and others say become toast like in deflationary and inflationary respectively. Since it is on a global agenda I'm leaning towards the dollar becoming trash. I think the Fed will try to drag the whole world bank system down to save themselves but I doubt the whole world bank system will allow it.

Elh: I hope you diversified a bit using an assortment of holdings.

True story...

Walked into the local Scottrade office on the Tuesday afternoon before Thanksgiving and requested a 5 digit partial withdrawal of funds to be mailed to the house.

The check, dated Friday the 23rd, arrived from St. Louis and was in the mailbox on Saturday afternoon,Thanksgiving weekend...

(Edited this post, as the little lady corrected my faulty memory as to the correct dates-- in any event, I just wanted to convey that I am to date pleased with Scottrade's service).