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Full Version: IDS World Markets Tues 4th December 07
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
Gloom and doom so far today. All Ords -0.4% with only one lonely green sector, Property Trusts, +0.8%. Most sectors are down slightly apart from Telecomms, -0.9% and Materials -1%.
The big miners pulling back: BHP -1% and RIO -2.7%. Golds are slightly better off, Newcrest -1.1%, Newmont -0.4% and Lihir -0.5%.
Oils mostly down on low volume: Woodside -0.8%, Santos -1.3% and Caltex flat.
One-Month Pound Libor Soars
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing pounds for a month surged by the most in more than 13 years as banks sought funds to cover their commitments to the start of 2008 amid a credit squeeze.
The London interbank offered rate that banks charge each other for such loans due after the end of the year rose 63 basis points to 6.72 percent today, the highest since December 1998, according to the British Bankers' Association.
Soaring bank lending rates reflect growing concern about the strength of financial institutions facing billions of dollars of writedowns this year linked to U.S. subprime-mortgage defaults.
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U.K. Manufacturing Growth Unexpectedly Quickens
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. manufacturing growth unexpectedly rebounded in November, weakening the case for an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England this week.
An index based on a survey of more than 600 manufacturers rose to 54.4, compared with 52.8 in October, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said today.
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U.K. November Retail Sales Rise as Stores Cut Prices
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. retail sales increased at a faster pace in November as stores attracted customers with price cuts, the British Retail Consortium said.
Revenue at outlets open at least a year climbed 1.2 percent from the same month in 2006, compared with a 1 percent gain in October, the lobby group, which represents 80 percent of U.K. retailers, said in London today. Total purchases rose an annual 3.1 percent. The survey was conducted from Oct. 28 to Nov. 24.
``Much of this modest growth came in the fourth week of the month thanks to an upsurge in discounting activity,'' said Kevin Hawkins, director general of the BRC, in an e-mailed statement. ``This points yet again to a very price-conscious Christmas for many consumers.''
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing pounds for a month surged by the most in more than 13 years as banks sought funds to cover their commitments to the start of 2008 amid a credit squeeze.
The London interbank offered rate that banks charge each other for such loans due after the end of the year rose 63 basis points to 6.72 percent today, the highest since December 1998, according to the British Bankers' Association.
Soaring bank lending rates reflect growing concern about the strength of financial institutions facing billions of dollars of writedowns this year linked to U.S. subprime-mortgage defaults.
----------------
U.K. Manufacturing Growth Unexpectedly Quickens
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. manufacturing growth unexpectedly rebounded in November, weakening the case for an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England this week.
An index based on a survey of more than 600 manufacturers rose to 54.4, compared with 52.8 in October, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said today.
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U.K. November Retail Sales Rise as Stores Cut Prices
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. retail sales increased at a faster pace in November as stores attracted customers with price cuts, the British Retail Consortium said.
Revenue at outlets open at least a year climbed 1.2 percent from the same month in 2006, compared with a 1 percent gain in October, the lobby group, which represents 80 percent of U.K. retailers, said in London today. Total purchases rose an annual 3.1 percent. The survey was conducted from Oct. 28 to Nov. 24.
``Much of this modest growth came in the fourth week of the month thanks to an upsurge in discounting activity,'' said Kevin Hawkins, director general of the BRC, in an e-mailed statement. ``This points yet again to a very price-conscious Christmas for many consumers.''
Australian Retail Sales Growth Slows to 0.2% on Rates
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's retail sales growth slowed for a second month, reinforcing expectations the central bank will refrain from raising interest rates tomorrow.
Sales advanced 0.2 percent in October from September, when they climbed a revised 0.7 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.6 percent increase.
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's retail sales growth slowed for a second month, reinforcing expectations the central bank will refrain from raising interest rates tomorrow.
Sales advanced 0.2 percent in October from September, when they climbed a revised 0.7 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.6 percent increase.
India's Exports Increase at Fastest Pace in 15 Months
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- India's exports grew in October at the fastest pace in 15 months as companies filled old orders and used hedging to cope with the impact of rupee appreciation.
Shipments of manufactured goods including gems and petroleum products rose 35.7 percent from a year earlier to $13.3 billion, following a 19.2 percent gain in September, the commerce ministry said today in New Delhi. Imports increased 24.3 percent to $20.8 billion, widening the trade deficit to $7.5 billion from $7 billion a year earlier.
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- India's exports grew in October at the fastest pace in 15 months as companies filled old orders and used hedging to cope with the impact of rupee appreciation.
Shipments of manufactured goods including gems and petroleum products rose 35.7 percent from a year earlier to $13.3 billion, following a 19.2 percent gain in September, the commerce ministry said today in New Delhi. Imports increased 24.3 percent to $20.8 billion, widening the trade deficit to $7.5 billion from $7 billion a year earlier.
A churn 'n burn day, basicallly sideways. All Ords closed -0.1% with sectors evenly split between gains and losses. At the red end, Telecomms finished down the most, -0.9% and Property Trusts shared the green lead with Healthcare, both +0.6%.
Miners failed to levitate: BHP -0.2%, RIO -2.6%. Golds ditto, Newcrest -3.3%, Newmont flat and Lihir -2.3%.
Oils also floundered: Woodside -0.7%, Santos -2.3% and Caltex flat.
Asia mixed: China +1.5%, Honkers +0.9%, Nikkers -0.7%.
Over to UK/Europe:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
[Oz] lender first to skip ahead of leader
THE prospect of home owners being hit with another interest rate rise increased yesterday after the newly merged Bendigo and Adelaide Bank became the first lender to push up borrowing costs by an extra 0.25 percentage points.
The increase, which takes effect today, is the first to be applied by a mainstream bank outside the current cycle of Reserve Bank rises and comes in response to the global liquidity crisis.
Yesterday's move by the wholesale funding arm of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is being closely watched by the big four, Commonwealth, National Australia Bank, ANZ and Westpac, which could follow suit by raising rates in the next couple of weeks.
All four major banks are facing the same problem as its regional competitor which, through its Adelaide Bank operation, has been a significant borrower from international credit markets to help fund the mortgages it offers to its customers.
The cost of these loans has soared in recent weeks after the financial damage caused by the subprime loans meltdown in the US. In particular, the Commonwealth and NAB have both warned they will soon pass on these higher costs to customers in the shape of a rate rise between 0.15 and 0.25 percentage points over and above that imposed by the Reserve Bank a month ago.
The banks had been hoping money market pressure would have eased by now but, after an initial falling back in interest rate spreads, borrowing costs have started to blow out again.
That forced the RBA to intervene yet again in money markets overnight and late last week by injecting additional liquidity to prevent lending between the banks from freezing up.
THE prospect of home owners being hit with another interest rate rise increased yesterday after the newly merged Bendigo and Adelaide Bank became the first lender to push up borrowing costs by an extra 0.25 percentage points.
The increase, which takes effect today, is the first to be applied by a mainstream bank outside the current cycle of Reserve Bank rises and comes in response to the global liquidity crisis.
Yesterday's move by the wholesale funding arm of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is being closely watched by the big four, Commonwealth, National Australia Bank, ANZ and Westpac, which could follow suit by raising rates in the next couple of weeks.
All four major banks are facing the same problem as its regional competitor which, through its Adelaide Bank operation, has been a significant borrower from international credit markets to help fund the mortgages it offers to its customers.
The cost of these loans has soared in recent weeks after the financial damage caused by the subprime loans meltdown in the US. In particular, the Commonwealth and NAB have both warned they will soon pass on these higher costs to customers in the shape of a rate rise between 0.15 and 0.25 percentage points over and above that imposed by the Reserve Bank a month ago.
The banks had been hoping money market pressure would have eased by now but, after an initial falling back in interest rate spreads, borrowing costs have started to blow out again.
That forced the RBA to intervene yet again in money markets overnight and late last week by injecting additional liquidity to prevent lending between the banks from freezing up.
Europe is mel-l-l-l-l-ting MELL-L-L-L-L-L-TING!
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SOZADOOLER:
You guys just guaranteed a big reversal. No Bear Cheering ! ! ! ! 
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 4 2007, 09:52 AM)
You guys just guaranteed a big reversal. No Bear Cheering ! ! ! !
yup. gap downs for the most part get filled.
I contended last week that it seemed like the ramp job could have been a major window dressing to camoflouge a very bad month for the sheeple. No way they were gonna let 'em see a bad statement print and getting em all panicky.
I felt if the 1st trading day of the month was down, my theory may have had some soundness to it.
The big question is as we retrace the gains, will support hold or be breached? If the don't, maybe it accelerates and doc tells us the 13 week cycle has simply petered out. He said it could last 2 to 5 weeks or be done fast....if I can recall.
I felt if the 1st trading day of the month was down, my theory may have had some soundness to it.
The big question is as we retrace the gains, will support hold or be breached? If the don't, maybe it accelerates and doc tells us the 13 week cycle has simply petered out. He said it could last 2 to 5 weeks or be done fast....if I can recall.
Though I have to admit it does appear Santa may be a little late this year.
We are now below Ben's rate cut hint. If 1462 goes on the futures, it's going to be kachingo! Still holding all my ES shorts from 1492.....
GS back below the 50 and very weak in Prehour.
Loonie tried to reclaim par all night, and was unable to do so...now getting abused.
Pound on the verge of breakdown again...this one is ready to bust a big move soon....below 2.0550 and wheels likely to come off....
Pound on the verge of breakdown again...this one is ready to bust a big move soon....below 2.0550 and wheels likely to come off....
Nice gap up on SRS.....let's see if they can run with it now
ABBEY JO IS BACK ! ! ! ! !
2008 is going to be GREAT as recession fears fade ! ! ! !
Fasten your seatbelts.
2008 is going to be GREAT as recession fears fade ! ! ! !
Fasten your seatbelts.
qqqq has hit a 3 day cycle projection of 50.42
Kwave whats your take on the yen euro. Ive got a long yen short euro pair trade on here. Was looking great till the euro busted a move overnite....tia
spx 3 day cycle projection 1450
dow 3 day cycle projection 13240
qqqq heading for cluster of resistance lines 50.73-.83 and 3 day cycle MA 50.81, 5 day 51.04 as they try to turn the 3 day cycle up.
BIDU added to QQQQ
up another 10. Is this a double top 400ish or....
up another 10. Is this a double top 400ish or....
spx 5 hr cycle projection 1460-61
So far so good on NYA target short zone.....
I have not researched this, but I vaguely remember that stocks usually go down after being added to the Nas 100. Can anyone verify?
We, as always, need LeeWhee.
We, as always, need LeeWhee.
Ape Woman!!
Goldman's Cohen Sees S&P 500 Rising 14% by 2008's End (Update2)
By Alexis Xydias and Eric Martin
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Chief Investment Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen forecast the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will rise 14 percent by the end of next year to 1,675 ``as recession fears fade.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...KeDU&refer=home
Geez, only 14% ??? I guess that's a downgrade from her usual 15%.
Goldman's Cohen Sees S&P 500 Rising 14% by 2008's End (Update2)
By Alexis Xydias and Eric Martin
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Chief Investment Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen forecast the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will rise 14 percent by the end of next year to 1,675 ``as recession fears fade.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...KeDU&refer=home
Geez, only 14% ??? I guess that's a downgrade from her usual 15%.
QUOTE(summoner @ Dec 4 2007, 08:36 AM)
Kwave whats your take on the yen euro. Ive got a long yen short euro pair trade on here. Was looking great till the euro busted a move overnite....tia
At a huge pivot area.....
Hourly chart still in your favor, especially if 161 falls....
Daily at the cliff edge......
Drano, you beat me to it.... should we short with impunity now?
that may have been both a 5 hr and 3 day cycle low. I expect the up phase to try to get back to resistance at 13310, 1472, and 50.80. Then we'll see.
Tanks 
Bounced off of 1462......
Should go for a retest soon.
Should go for a retest soon.
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 4 2007, 09:51 AM)
Drano, you beat me to it.... should we short with impunity now?
Normally I'd say the bear cheering obviated that.... but....
ABBEY JO IS BACK ! ! ! !
She's often good for a short-term pop.... maybe those with iron tummies can take this as the all clear....
I mean, of course not, bullz rule, Santa's on the way, buy stocks with both fists and be sure to pick up homebuilders and banks.
FWIW, I closed out my long Euro and NZD positions yesterday (established in 2003), and rolled all proceeds into Japanese yen.
LIBOR keeps inching up as 2yr UST yield makes new lows.
Reminds me of that Police song: Da Doo Doo Doo, Da Da Da Da
Reminds me of that Police song: Da Doo Doo Doo, Da Da Da Da
GS popped up on Friday(11/30) as one of my indicators. The last time this happened was during the week that we had those huge intra-day reversals before post Tks Day rally.This should indicate a huge day coming up soon.....but, if don't get it soon, maybe GS is positioning itself for a selloff?
Horsemen rampaging again. GOOG up 6 and a half, RIMMjob up 2, AAPL up uh uh uh... a penny.
I guess we gotta add BIDU to the horsemen now. Up 10
I guess we gotta add BIDU to the horsemen now. Up 10
Quick heads up on the latest news on the Iran front. The price of crude is heading for the woodshed.
Nice trade Jimi
The NDX constituents should be re-weighted around now, it means AAPL won't be the 12.5% behemoth but reflect its truer valuation. Will be interesting to see how this effects trading of QQQ's going forward
I was hoping for a swift resolution of this mess via sharply lower prices of everything across the board.
But it's looking more and more like it's gonna be a loooong, drawn-out process.
Bummer.
But it's looking more and more like it's gonna be a loooong, drawn-out process.
Bummer.
qqqq 3 day cycle indicators edge to buy side as the price tries to get through 3 day cycle MA 50.79 and resistance lines at same level. Next target is the 5 day at 51.02, along with 2 day downtrend line at same level.
GE takes last weeks spike low..
QUOTE(dogsie @ Dec 4 2007, 10:02 AM)
The NDX constituents should be re-weighted around now, it means AAPL won't be the 12.5% behemoth but reflect its truer valuation. Will be interesting to see how this effects trading of QQQ's going forward
I didn't see what happened to the NDX constituents ... Did they Add/Subtract some constituents ??? tia
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 4 2007, 10:07 AM)
I was hoping for a swift resolution of this mess via sharply lower prices of everything across the board.
But it's looking more and more like it's gonna be a loooong, drawn-out process.
Bummer.
But it's looking more and more like it's gonna be a loooong, drawn-out process.
Bummer.
They are following the Japan route. Hide and bury all the losses and spend the next 20 years trying to get whole. I expect 10-20 years of deflation in real estate, and a 10-20 year bear market in stocks. Due to the lack of liquidity, the stock market will be extremely volatile in both directions, but the up phases will be shorter than the down.
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