The Fed did a big drain today. I'm beginning to think they don't want the market to rally. Crazy.

The thing about the dull market-- tomorrow will be the tell, because today sure was dull.

who's downgrading whom?

are the Pigmen turning on each other?

Hey Doc ...
Did you come up with any ideas for shorts ... or should we just go with SpeakEasy's

[attachmentid=93317]
Guess I'll go with the Paisley Shorts ...

Swine at the trough

Hey ... Where's the TwoFers ???

The Donald doesn't bother with shorts.

inflation, ya know... cost cutting....

Tomorrow's action is going to be very important.
If we take out 1462 it might get ugly very quick. All major decline starts off innocently.

Very nize!

Maybe we'll get one of those MONSTER ROUND bottoms tomorrow.

you could not have said it any better.....thanks madness

looks like everything is going to be alllll right!!

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Abby Joseph Cohen, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist whose call for a year-end rally in U.S. stocks hasn't come true, predicted the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will rise 14 percent by the end of next year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...u.Mg&refer=home

this would be the worst gig since Baghdad Bobs..

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann turned down an opportunity to pursue the top job at Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...4TMU&refer=home

Wow.... the first crack in the Abby Jo facade?

Frying pan, meet fire.

Just looked at the put/call for OEX. This is the smart money, not to be faded.

They ended the day overwhelmingly buying calls.

*DJ Fannie Mae: Div Cut To Start With 1Q 2008>FNM

*DJ Fannie Mae Plans To Reduce Dividend By 30% In 1Q 2008



*DJ Fannie Mae Plans To Offer $7B Of Preferred Stk During Dec>FNM

*DJ Fannie Mae Shares Drop 3.8%; Company To Cut Dividend

That might be a reason to cut 50bps as the CNBSers led by Money Honey and Ron INsana are screaming for.

Surprise.

The last 3 rate cuts didn't do any good. Why would this one. Rate cuts aren't going to help, period. They won't solve the solvency problem. How are they going to solve solvency?

I be thinkin' ,not drinkin, but thinkin along these lines...

Years ago,William James, American Philospher,and psychologist, brought the public's interest towards Human consciousnes, which he referred to as being in general,a blooming ,buzzing confusion...

He called this "The Stream of Consciousness".

Stormy and confusing, For the most part at least; the minor portion remaining, was referred to as the focal point of Attention...Insulated, and surrounded by non-cognitive mental storms,our Attention,short and infirm, is under a constantant rhapsodic bombardment..

So, taking this into this into consideration, how does one manage to think, and keep on thinking attentively about the market amidst all these unconscious strenuosities.

I believe (notice the I not placing the blame on anyone else) the preservation of one's sanity requires an Ideational liferaft; a concept or master Idea, that momentarily, solidifies the mass of troubling anarchical stimuli penetrating our skulls..

Now all of us,within the interior portion of our skulls, are surrounded by a cloud of nebulous musings petaining to what is, paradoxically, "unthinkable",namely the multi-multi trillion dollar debt....

So off-putting in vastness is it, that it requires alll of one's strength in giving it any sort of attention at all; and the depth and time devoted to the problem reaches a point of diminishing returns very, very quickly....

So to shorten this post I'll tell you my master idea which will,Im sure, add years to my life, by summarising the ending scenario of the unfolding drama of our indebtedness---

In a word:

REPUDIATION....simple isn't it? ....think about it:we are simply not going to pay..and before you cry out "simple simonism" remember the good old uSA has a history od momentary and episodic deadbeatism....it is not unprecedented, and as the Philosophical Historians are wont to say:

What HAS happened before can very easily happen again...

Now when I look at Rushmore Paulson and Casino Bernanke acrobatically shenaninagising all I se is DISGUISED REPUDIATION...no more no less...

And like Dok have no Idea about how long this adventure in robbery will take to play out....

Enough for now.....What's the word? Thunderbird! What's the price? Twenty twice...

beardrech Believe it or Not...

Looking at 6 month daily and weekly charts for OEX, I see what looks to me to be a H and S forming with a very weak right shoulder and neckline 660-670ish.

Isn't a weak R shoulder sign of a possible severe downturn?

Am I in error?

Comments welcome...

For the years that had santa claus rallies, how does this year compare?

Where's the bunny, Benny? There needs to be one tomorrow morning.

CDE wasn't healthy today:

Maybe they think that they'll ram it back up around 710 or so first.

maybe a healthy pullback to gather energy for a blaSSt

Are these the faces that launched a thousand ships and burnt the topless towers of Ilium??...

beardrech One more crak like that, and Alice ....to the moons.....

Yeah, Ben is a closet neo-liberal... out to take down the power elite.


I agree with those saying that Paulson is being set up as the goat.

Bernanke seems to be distancing away from Greenspan, perhaps doing the opposite of 2001. He sees what the result of his helicopter theory has wrought and it has failed. He must know insolvency and the dollar's credibility is at stake.

Either that, or the PTB gave him his marching orders. But then, that means best bud Bob Rubin is gonna take a hit. Times like these, the PTB have to eat their own?

this is a great article.

Herding cats.

There is also the issue of "HERDING" cats as the homeowners are scattered everywhere, and the lenders are scattered around the world holding the "securities" in their investment portfolios. These aren't lenders in the traditional sense, they are investors and they bought what they believed were passive income streams serviced and maintained by the issuing investment or money center bank. What do you do? Call them up and say you have a choice, either take less return on your investment or face the task of working through the foreclosure process and see what you have left? Have you ever tried to herd cats? This is the definition of it!

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8952.htm

I like the writing style of many of the safehaven guys(preaching to the converted I know but what the heck..)

This line in particular is very telling,every man and his dog says the same thing publicly whilst privately they are selling everything and anything to get their hands on some cash.

I could have sworn Lennar's CEO was just in the news saying they were going to mothball properties (sit on them) until the market turns. Maybe I was imagining it.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8951.htm

Don't know whom is gonna win the battle.....Abby Joe Cohen and her contrary call or the OEX put/call ratio.......

[attachmentid=93324]

Truly a battle for the ages....

Every time oil moves up 10 dollar, OPEC meets and decides to INCREASE production.
Who are they trying to fool?

*DJ Venezuela's Cardon Refinery Suffers Power Outage - Worker

*DJ Venezuela's Cardon Refinery Units Down - Worker

GDX is in the right shoulder of a massive head and shoulders with a neckline at about 45. It's going to break down. The only question is when.

Be prepared. Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Precious Metals Daily, just $39 quarterly. Try it risk free for 30 days!

Uh, just as a point of order, of course, you forgot to cite where you got that pic.


rules, rules, rules, without 'em this place would be chaos!

More downgrades on MBS, Check the editor.

Subprime bond losses to climb to 20 pct -analysts
Tue Dec 4, 2007 3:44pm EST
By Walden Siew

DANA POINT, Calif., Dec 4 (Reuters) - Expected losses for troubled mortgages known as Alt-A loans are now more than double earlier forecasts and losses for subprime bonds originated in 2006 may climb to 20 percent or more, analysts said on Tuesday.

Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday raised its forecast for expected losses for U.S. mortgages known as "Alt-A" residential mortgage debt. Loss estimates for Alt-A bonds reviewed by Moody's increased by an average of 110 percent from initial expectations, with some loss estimates up by as much as 270 percent, Moody's said in a report.

Alt-A mortgages are made to borrowers with credit scores above subprime but who have other risky attributes, such as no proof of income or lack of an equity stake in the property.

"Alt-A performance has not been very good," said Jonathan Polansky, a managing director at Moody's Investors Service, during a panel discussion at a bond conference on Tuesday.

For subprime bonds, losses for those underlying securities for collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, are expected to be "well over 20 percent," said Kevin Kendra, managing director for structured credit at Derivative Fitch.

UBS AG has raised its expectations for subprime bond losses to about 20 percent, said Douglas Lucas, an executive director at UBS. As recently as this summer those losses were expected to be 16 percent, versus 11 percent at the beginning of the year, he said during a panel discussion on Tuesday at the Opal Financial Group CDO Summit.

Other financial firms have estimates of between 18 percent and about 23 percent, Lucas said. UBS last month said the U.S. subprime crisis could result in losses totaling between $380 billion to $480 billion, including $85 billion in losses due to the collapse of CDOs. (Editing by Leslie Adler)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/i...452941320071204

Aren't they talkin' about MONEY when they do that?

It always seems to work out that way...

From the same article,

Not to be left out of any vote-buying opportunity and secure stable 2008 reelection conditions, Public Servants Charles Schumer and Barney Frank expressed reservations about leaving anybody out of the BAILOUT. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is proposing a 90 day freeze on foreclosures, this would make the asset- backed securities even more worthless. I hope you all have stock in "printing press" makers? LOL. You can count on them printing the money, as we have seen it for the last several decades and you will see it here.

Where do we get such caring politians?

Do they have any more?

another great call, James

Doc, u iz mah new bes fren.

Nitely Bidness Report is interviewing someone who thinks the Xmas season will be okay for shoppers and the U.S. can avoid recession. His name is Michael MORAN.

I've seen him. Bung likes to post his picture all the time. His mullet has got to go.

Unable or unwilling to sell their stucco crapboxes at declining prices, homoaners in Riverslide and San Burndadino counties are CONverting them to rentals, glutting the market and causing rents to fall.

Denver said today a $300,000 house purchased with a 7 percent down payment would likely require a monthly mrotgouge payment of $2,500. The same house, he said, can be rented for $1,300 a month, "and the owner has to do the repairs."

(and tithe to the taxman)

Most property managers said they will not rent to delinquents who lost their homes in foreclosure if they also were delinquent on other bills.

Anyone following Canadian Royalty Trusts (energy sector)?

Check out 3 yr WEEKLY charts on HTE, PVX, but especially PWE (the largest energy Can Roy, I believe).

PWE's closing price today is LOWER than opening trade at trust's inception in Nov '05.

Same for HTE.

For someone looking to buy into an income stream at bargain prices, these may become even better values as the current oil decline continues.

Those guys are fighting a no win scenario. When they had big profits it was "all good".

Apparently citigroup is giving all their profits back right now. On a personal level I am having a hard time caring.

not real time or anything but i bought MU on the open and sold about hour later for a nice gain. then i went and hhit Vail for the day. was awesome. even dumped my QID this Am on the gap up.

good times !

i have been looking to go long some of tose for trades and they have gotten beaten up like they have no more oil to sell ... not sure whats up ... just wait for the technicals to get happy. could trade those for a couple days i bet and make some nice jack.