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aussiebear
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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices


aussiebear
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In the red today. All Ords -0.5% with most sectors down around that amount. Property Trusts has gone into a swoon after the past couple of up days, -1.6%. Materials is down the least, -0.1%.

Miners are doing relatively well: BHP -0.2%, RIO +1.2%. Golds are ok too, Newcrest and Newmont +1.1% and Lihir +0.3%.

Oils are mixed: Woodside -1.2%, Santos +1.7% and Caltex -2%.




aussiebear
U.K. Consumer Confidence Falls Most Since 2004

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. consumer confidence fell the most in at least three years in November as higher borrowing costs and rising prices discouraged spending, Nationwide Building Society said.

An index of sentiment taken from a survey of 1,001 people declined 12 points to 86, the largest drop since the gauge was introduced in May 2004, Britain's fourth-biggest mortgage lender said today in an e-mailed statement. A measure showing willingness to spend fell 14 points to 63, the lowest recorded.


aussiebear
South Africa Miners Hold First National Safety Strike

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- South African miners held their first national safety strike, curtailing operations that produce three- quarters of the world's platinum and more than a 10th of its gold.

The National Union of Mineworkers, South Africa's biggest labor union, called the strike as mine deaths rose this year, reversing a decade of progress. The action will involve 240,000 workers and affect 60 companies, it said.

--------------

South African Vehicle Sales Drop Most in More Than Five Years

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- South African vehicle sales fell 13.8 percent in November, the biggest drop in more than five years, as three interest rate increases curbed consumer spending.

Sales declined to 47,707 units last month from 55,354 in November 2006, the Pretoria-based National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa said in an e-mailed statement today.

``Trading conditions generally, particularly in the new car market, remained under severe pressure,'' the association said. ``NAAMSA expects substantial pressure on new vehicle sales throughout 2008'' if interest rates continue to rise.


aussiebear
Kuwaiti Inflation Rate Increases to Record on Housing

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Kuwait's inflation rate surged to a record 6.2 percent in September as the cost of housing increased, offsetting a rally in the dinar since the central bank ended its peg to the dollar.

Inflation accelerated from 4.8 percent the month before, the Planning Ministry said in a faxed statement today.

The pick-up in inflation highlights the limited role that the weaker dollar has played in stoking inflation in the Gulf. The leaders of six Gulf Arab states, including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, have debated dropping their currency pegs to the dollar at a meeting over the past two days, Qatar's al-Sharq newspaper reported yesterday, citing Oman's foreign affairs minister.


aussiebear
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Today's action could only be described as lethargic. All Ords closed -0.3% with little movement in the sectors apart from Property Trusts, -1.1%. There were two marginal greens, Energy +0.2% and Healthcare +0.1%.

Miners messed around: BHP -0.9%, RIO +0.5% and in the golds, Newcrest -0.2%, Newmont +0.9% and Lihir -0.5%. Juniors looked interesting, flat to up.

In the oils, Santos shot up +3.5%, Woodside -1.4% and Caltex -1.6%.

Mostly up in Asia: China +1.2%, Nikkers +0.7% and Sth Korea +1.1%.


Over to UK/Europe:

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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe






cwd
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The credit crunch continues. unsure.gif
fxfox
"Equity is soft, debt hard. Equity is forgiving, debt insistent. Equity is a pillow, debt a sword."
DrStool
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Dec 4 2007, 10:14 PM)
INTERESTING VIEW ON WHAT JUST HAPPENED IN OZ..

Back to Australia, for which economic conditions had been literally perfect in recent years and which had also been managed admirably by Mr. Howard: the country will now most definitely proceed along a different course, one which will likely change which of its industries will be most attractive for investment purposes and perhaps take some of the luster off of its currency.

The age-old adage of, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," was roundly ignored by Australian voters. We will soon find out at what cost.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8956.htm
*




The guy obviously never met a bubble he didn't like.
Sudaca
Legg Mason chief sees dire credit market

By Deborah Brewster in New York

Published: December 4 2007 23:36 | Last updated: December 4 2007 23:36

Chip Mason, chief executive and founder of Legg Mason, one of the world’s largest money managers, said on Tuesday that the credit markets are in the worst state he has seen in his 47 years in the business.

“It is a very unusual situation. I have not seen anything like this, where nothing is traded,” said Mr Mason.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/567cb7cc-a2be-11...00779fd2ac.html

Geez, I'm only 37 and already I thought it was the worst I'd ever seen it in my 15 years in the business.
DrStool
Good Morning!

Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!

You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.

Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply.

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Many tanks for joining us!

Doc


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Sudaca
I googled "Libor" and "Swap" to search for some news, and this came out:

Babies swapped at birth go home

PRAGUE Two baby girls mistakenly swapped at birth have been returned to their biological parents in time for their first birthdays.

The two sets of parents had taken the wrong baby home from a clinic in Trebic, southeast of Prague, nearly a year ago. The mix-up was realised when one of the fathers, Libor Broza, became suspicious that his daughter, Nikola, did not resemble him.


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle3001618.ece

With a dad called "Libor", I guess you could see this one coming laugh.gif
DrStool
Don't the Canadian Energy Trusts represent wasting assets? Isn't that why their dividend is so high? As the oil gets depleted in the property, doesn't the dividend represent both return on and return of investment. Isn't that why the prices always downtrend? Does the trust have a finite life, or does the price simply continue to decline over time as the trust property produces less and less?

If that's how it works, wouldn't it behoove the holder to trade in and out, rather than buy and hold? I know nothing about these things, but they seem like complicated instruments, with especially extreme negative leverage during periods of declining energy prices.

Just wondering.
bondtrader
check out MU this am looks like i sold a bit to early .... oh well
bondtrader
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 5 2007, 09:20 AM)
Don't the Canadian Energy Trusts represent wasting assets? Isn't that why their dividend is so high? As the oil gets depleted in the property, doesn't the dividend represent both return on and return of investment. Isn't that why the prices always downtrend? Does the trust have a finite life, or does the price simply continue to decline over time as the trust property produces less and less?

If that's how it works, wouldn't it behoove the holder to trade in and out, rather than buy and hold? I know nothing about these things, but they seem like complicated instruments, with especially extreme negative leverage during periods of declining energy prices.

Just wondering.
*




no doubt the charts of those appear to look like the homies !!! short them to zero ?
alceringa
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 12:20 AM)
Don't the Canadian Energy Trusts represent wasting assets? Isn't that why their dividend is so high? As the oil gets depleted in the property, doesn't the dividend represent both return on and return of investment. Isn't that why the prices always downtrend? Does the trust have a finite life, or does the price simply continue to decline over time as the trust property produces less and less?

If that's how it works, wouldn't it behoove the holder to trade in and out, rather than buy and hold? I know nothing about these things, but they seem like complicated instruments, with especially extreme negative leverage during periods of declining energy prices.

Just wondering.
*



You are describing USA Energy Trusts, like BPT which has no employees and just a banker/trustee to collect and distribute the money flow from the Prudhoe Bay Pipeline.

The Canadian Trusts are not "instruments". They are operating companies with assets, employees and the ability to make new investments and sell old ones. They can renew and expand business as old assests play out.

High yield=high risk and the risk in Canada is of more broken promises from the politicians there about taxation.








Drano
"Unit labor costs in the second quarter were also revised much lower, from a 2.2% gain to a 1.1% decline, reflecting more up-to-date compensation information.
The revised data show inflationary pressures from tight labor markets are much milder than previously believed, giving Federal Reserve officials more cover to cut interest rates without fearing that inflation could spike higher."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-t...4%7D&siteid=bnb

K Wave Rider
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Dec 4 2007, 08:11 PM)
Very short term charts look like we may possibly have some more upside. Touched some support on the open today and then couldn't take it out the rest of the day. As long as that holds, another leg up still possible...

Will be watching YM 13,300 overnight. If that gets taken out, we may see gap and go upwards tomorrow...below today's low and the opposite might occur...gotta feeling the decision will be made overnight though.
*


Looks the da charts was right.....

I luv it when a plan comes together!
linrom
QUOTE(alceringa @ Dec 5 2007, 09:42 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 12:20 AM)
Don't the Canadian Energy Trusts represent wasting assets? Isn't that why their dividend is so high? As the oil gets depleted in the property, doesn't the dividend represent both return on and return of investment. Isn't that why the prices always downtrend? Does the trust have a finite life, or does the price simply continue to decline over time as the trust property produces less and less?

If that's how it works, wouldn't it behoove the holder to trade in and out, rather than buy and hold? I know nothing about these things, but they seem like complicated instruments, with especially extreme negative leverage during periods of declining energy prices.

Just wondering.
*



You are describing USA Energy Trusts, like BPT which has no employees and just a banker/trustee to collect and distribute the money flow from the Prudhoe Bay Pipeline.

The Canadian Trusts are not "instruments". They are operating companies with assets, employees and the ability to make new investments and sell old ones. They can renew and expand business as old assests play out.

High yield=high risk and the risk in Canada is of more broken promises from the politicians there about taxation.
*



They might be operating companies but the assets they hold have limited life span as they don't INVEST in expansion: they pay all income as return on investment. Eventually, they''ll all sell for pennies unless they re-raise new capital to start a new TRUST.

K Wave Rider
And in other Kaching! action....the Pound jumps out of the alligator's mouth into the abyss...


This may be the start of something really big here......
K Wave Rider
I really oughtta move somewhere where I can trade at reasonable hours....all the big money seems to be made in the wee hours nowadays laugh.gif
Lemur
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 5 2007, 01:44 PM)
"Unit labor costs in the second quarter were also revised much lower, from a 2.2% gain to a 1.1% decline, reflecting more up-to-date compensation information.
The revised data show inflationary pressures from tight labor markets are much milder than previously believed, giving Federal Reserve officials more cover to cut interest rates without fearing that inflation could spike higher."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-t...4%7D&siteid=bnb
*




Looks like a real bear hunt today on these numbers. Yet the dollar seems to be doing well especially against the cable (british pound). (The bad housing data from the UK is getting the blame for that).
linrom
+200, GS rally in progress. Watch financials, there were rumors of huge Dec, Jan puts buying yesterday--- a premium is a wasting asset. laugh.gif Everyone is positioned for a deflationary collapse. laugh.gif
potatohead

*DJ US 3Q Unit Labor Costs Revised To -2.0% From -0.2%

*DJ US 3Q Non-Farm Productivity Revised To +6.3% From +4.9%

*DJ US 3Q Productivity Rise Fastest Since 3Q '03

yes we only need 2 employees to operate an office depot
we only need 3 checkstands to operate at a Walmart
Drano
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Dec 5 2007, 08:58 AM)
I really oughtta move somewhere where I can trade at reasonable hours....all the big money seems to be made in the wee hours nowadays laugh.gif
*


You just need to turn yourself into a third-shift worker -- get up at midnight, have a leisurely breakfast, see what happens at the European market opening, then go long for the liar statistics rocket launches.
Lemur
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Dec 5 2007, 01:56 PM)
And in other Kaching! action....the Pound jumps out of the alligator's mouth into the abyss...


This may be the start of something really big here......
*




Great call Kwave. I went short GBP/USD monday. Have scaled out one third already.

The BOE interest rate decision is tomorrow. If they don't cut then we should see a bounce. If they do cut, then I plan to hold the two thirds for a nice ride down.
Drano
Lem, what vehicle do you use for such a trade? (the pound/dollar one)
Lemur
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 5 2007, 02:03 PM)
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Dec 5 2007, 08:58 AM)
I really oughtta move somewhere where I can trade at reasonable hours....all the big money seems to be made in the wee hours nowadays laugh.gif
*


You just need to turn yourself into a third-shift worker -- get up at midnight, have a leisurely breakfast, see what happens at the European market opening, then go long for the liar statistics rocket launches.
*




I am planning a trip to the South of France soon (NICE) to check it out as a winter base. That would allow time for a quiet breakfast in a local cafe, a stroll along the beach in the balmy winter weather and then back to the casino..........and the stool.
patents
QUOTE(potatohead @ Dec 5 2007, 09:02 AM)
*DJ US 3Q Unit Labor Costs Revised To -2.0% From -0.2%

*DJ US 3Q Non-Farm Productivity Revised To +6.3% From +4.9%

*DJ US 3Q Productivity Rise Fastest Since 3Q '03

yes we only need 2 employees to operate an office depot
we only need 3 checkstands to operate at a Walmart
*


And those 3 checkstands at Walmart are self-checking with one low paid employee overseeing 10 of hte computerized self check lanes while doing other tasks.
patents
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 5 2007, 09:03 AM)
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Dec 5 2007, 08:58 AM)
I really oughtta move somewhere where I can trade at reasonable hours....all the big money seems to be made in the wee hours nowadays laugh.gif
*


You just need to turn yourself into a third-shift worker -- get up at midnight, have a leisurely breakfast, see what happens at the European market opening, then go long for the liar statistics rocket launches.
*


But such a change in lifestyle may bring with it an increased cancer risk. Perhaps better to change timezones if one wants to live longer to enjoy the rewards. (But I am sure that one's spouse would not mind one way or the other since they will benefit either way.)
Lemur
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 5 2007, 02:10 PM)
Lem, what vehicle do you use for such a trade? (the pound/dollar one)
*




I use IGmarkets.com, the same place I do my CFD share trades. However, since you are US based, I don't think you can use this vechicle.

You could use a forex broker. I used to have an FXDD forex account but closed it for a number of reasons (would not recommend them). FXCM seems to be better.

Careful with forex trading though. The action seems to fall the news rather the technicals. Forex trading is certainly more challenging than stock trading.
alceringa
QUOTE(linrom @ Dec 6 2007, 12:55 AM)
QUOTE(alceringa @ Dec 5 2007, 09:42 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 12:20 AM)
Don't the Canadian Energy Trusts represent wasting assets? Isn't that why their dividend is so high? As the oil gets depleted in the property, doesn't the dividend represent both return on and return of investment. Isn't that why the prices always downtrend? Does the trust have a finite life, or does the price simply continue to decline over time as the trust property produces less and less?

If that's how it works, wouldn't it behoove the holder to trade in and out, rather than buy and hold? I know nothing about these things, but they seem like complicated instruments, with especially extreme negative leverage during periods of declining energy prices.

Just wondering.
*



You are describing USA Energy Trusts, like BPT which has no employees and just a banker/trustee to collect and distribute the money flow from the Prudhoe Bay Pipeline.

The Canadian Trusts are not "instruments". They are operating companies with assets, employees and the ability to make new investments and sell old ones. They can renew and expand business as old assests play out.

High yield=high risk and the risk in Canada is of more broken promises from the politicians there about taxation.
*



They might be operating companies but the assets they hold have limited life span as they don't INVEST in expansion: they pay all income as return on investment. Eventually, they''ll all sell for pennies unless they re-raise new capital to start a new TRUST.
*



Hmmmm...... interesting comments. Not sure if they apply to very many of the Canadian Oil and Gas Trusts, if any. They could apply to some of the Canadian REIT's but I don't follow them.

Certainly the "sweet spot" for payout ratio is less than 100%, more like 60-80.

In any case, McDep tends to dig really deep into payout ratios and their impact on valuations. Here's a link to some of the free stuff.

http://www.mcdep.com/energyincome.htm
linrom
Semiconductors are on fire. Some of those companies were trading at recessionary levels last seen at the bottom of 9/11/01.
bondtrader
im so happy i dumped my qid yesterday .... close call .... on the flipside .... i may enter into QID this am
bondtrader
QUOTE(linrom @ Dec 5 2007, 10:20 AM)
Semiconductors are on fire. Some of those companies were trading at recessionary levels last seen at the bottom of 9/11/01.
*




and i was mocked yesterday for buying MU ... lol

anyhow check out QLGC this am ... i like the chart.
cwd
CD Z07 98860 99190 97920 98580 -1460 blink.gif

This has something to do with royalty trusts. both oil and the Canuck buck are trending down,
Great calls from Doc and KW. biggrin.gif
alceringa
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Dec 6 2007, 12:58 AM)
I really oughtta move somewhere where I can trade at reasonable hours....all the big money seems to be made in the wee hours nowadays laugh.gif
*




Wellington, New Zealand.

USA Market closes at 8AM local time during the Southern Hemisphere Summer, 10AM during the Winter.

cwd
QUOTE(Lemur @ Dec 5 2007, 09:01 AM)
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 5 2007, 01:44 PM)
"Unit labor costs in the second quarter were also revised much lower, from a 2.2% gain to a 1.1% decline, reflecting more up-to-date compensation information.
The revised data show inflationary pressures from tight labor markets are much milder than previously believed, giving Federal Reserve officials more cover to cut interest rates without fearing that inflation could spike higher."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-t...4%7D&siteid=bnb
*




Looks like a real bear hunt today on these numbers. Yet the dollar seems to be doing well especially against the cable (british pound). (The bad housing data from the UK is getting the blame for that).
*




It doesn't make any difference what the numbers are. They are spun to show that we need at least 50bps cut. It is all in the presentation. cool.gif
bondtrader
okay long CRESY
DrStool
qqqq 3 day cycle projection 51.50

5 hr projection 51.25 was exceeded
DrStool
didn't quite make it to a cluster of resistance trendlines at 51.38. support line on a pullback should be around 51.07.
DrStool
spx 5 hr cycle projection 1480
DrStool
dow 5 hr cycle projection 13390
K Wave Rider
Since it still seems to be all about the yen.....ES and USD/JPY look nearly identical here... you can argue about the chicken/egg thing all you like, the correlation is simply amazing. laugh.gif

Could see Uncle Buck mount a charge to 112+ area, which would prolly take ES towards 1495-1500ish

A break of da blue line (1460 ES) could spell disaster fur da bullz now....

potatohead

DJ Fed Accepts $13 Bln In 7-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 7-Day RPs
Total accepted: $13 Bln
Total submitted: $60.2 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $8.22 Bln
Total submitted: $21.1 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.52%
Weighted Average: 4.55%
High-rate submitted: 4.58%
Low-rate submitted: 4.2%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.1 Bln
Total submitted: $12.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.32%
Weighted Average: 4.34%
High-rate submitted: 4.4%
Low-rate submitted: 4%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $2.68 Bln
Total submitted: $26.8 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.65%
Weighted Average: 4.65%
High-rate submitted: 4.67%
Low-rate submitted: 4.45%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
DrStool
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Dec 5 2007, 08:58 AM)
I really oughtta move somewhere where I can trade at reasonable hours....all the big money seems to be made in the wee hours nowadays laugh.gif
*




Russ loves Ipanema and Brazil in general. He's 3 hours ahead of US ET, and a couple hours behind GMT. Not a bad place to be. At 9 AM in London, it's 7 AM his time. At 9 AM in NY, it's noon there.

Of course, you might have a slight problem with the Asian markets. They'd start trading around 11:00 in Australia I think, then midnight or 1 AM for Japan. SOmething like that. That stuff always confuses me. laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
I_Am_Madness
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 5 2007, 09:41 AM)
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Dec 5 2007, 08:58 AM)
I really oughtta move somewhere where I can trade at reasonable hours....all the big money seems to be made in the wee hours nowadays laugh.gif
*




Russ loves Ipanema and Brazil in general. He's 3 hours ahead of US ET, and a couple hours behind GMT. Not a bad place to be. At 9 AM in London, it's 7 AM his time. At 9 AM in NY, it's noon there.

Of course, you might have a slight problem with the Asian markets. They'd start trading around 11:00 in Australia I think, then midnight or 1 AM for Japan. SOmething like that. That stuff always confuses me. laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
*



I love Brazil. Beautiful women everywhere. Natural or not. laugh.gif
K Wave Rider
SOX blows the downtrend...this may last fur a bit....
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