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Full Version: IDS World Markets Thurs 6th December 07
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
Looks like the only direction is up. All Ords +1.2% with all sectors green. It's back to the old faves leading, Energy +1.6% and Materials +1.5%. IT is up the least, +0.5%.
The big miners up of course: BHP +2.2% and RIO +0.6%. Golds looking uncertain, Newcrest -0.7%, Newmont flat and Lihir +0.8%.
Oils green: Woodside +1.3%, Santos +1.8% and Caltex +0.9%.
South African Business Confidence Drops to Lowest in 3 Years
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- South African business confidence fell to its lowest in more than three years last month as higher interest rates and gasoline prices boosted business costs, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry said.
The Business Confidence Index declined to 95.8 in November from 96.9 in the previous month, the Johannesburg-based chamber said in an e-mailed statement today. November's level is the lowest since February 2004.
South Africa's central bank has increased its benchmark interest rate three times this year to 10.5 percent to curb spending and inflation, which has exceeded its 3 percent to 6 percent target range since April. The bank will probably raise the rate by half a percentage point tomorrow, according to all 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- South African business confidence fell to its lowest in more than three years last month as higher interest rates and gasoline prices boosted business costs, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry said.
The Business Confidence Index declined to 95.8 in November from 96.9 in the previous month, the Johannesburg-based chamber said in an e-mailed statement today. November's level is the lowest since February 2004.
South Africa's central bank has increased its benchmark interest rate three times this year to 10.5 percent to curb spending and inflation, which has exceeded its 3 percent to 6 percent target range since April. The bank will probably raise the rate by half a percentage point tomorrow, according to all 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
U.K. House Prices Decline, Worst Streak Since 1995
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell for a third month in November, the worst performance in more than a decade, and services growth slowed, increasing speculation the Bank of England will cut interest rates tomorrow.
The average cost of a home in Britain declined 1.1 percent to 194,895 pounds ($400,000) from a month earlier, a report by HBOS Plc showed today. Prices last fell for three months in a row in 1995. Services from banking to travel grew at the slowest pace in four years last month, according to an index by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply.
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Pound Drops to 4-Year Low Against Euro
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The pound dropped to the lowest in more than four years against the euro after industry reports indicating slower U.K. economic growth prompted some banks to forecast a cut in interest rates tomorrow.
The pound also fell to a six-week low versus the dollar as data showed U.K. services growth slowed, house prices fell for a third month in November and consumer confidence slipped the most in at least three years.
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell for a third month in November, the worst performance in more than a decade, and services growth slowed, increasing speculation the Bank of England will cut interest rates tomorrow.
The average cost of a home in Britain declined 1.1 percent to 194,895 pounds ($400,000) from a month earlier, a report by HBOS Plc showed today. Prices last fell for three months in a row in 1995. Services from banking to travel grew at the slowest pace in four years last month, according to an index by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply.
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Pound Drops to 4-Year Low Against Euro
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The pound dropped to the lowest in more than four years against the euro after industry reports indicating slower U.K. economic growth prompted some banks to forecast a cut in interest rates tomorrow.
The pound also fell to a six-week low versus the dollar as data showed U.K. services growth slowed, house prices fell for a third month in November and consumer confidence slipped the most in at least three years.
Tokyo Office Vacancy Rate Fell to Six-Year Low in November
Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Tokyo office vacancies fell in November to the lowest in at least six years, real estate brokerage Miki Shoji Co. said.
The vacancy rate in Tokyo's five central districts of Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku and Shibuya fell to 2.49 percent, from 2.55 percent in October. Miki Shoji's report was released today through the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation.
Tokyo office vacancies may not have been this low since December 1991, when they fell to 1.79 percent, according to Miki Shoji, which started compiling monthly data in 2001.
Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Tokyo office vacancies fell in November to the lowest in at least six years, real estate brokerage Miki Shoji Co. said.
The vacancy rate in Tokyo's five central districts of Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku and Shibuya fell to 2.49 percent, from 2.55 percent in October. Miki Shoji's report was released today through the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation.
Tokyo office vacancies may not have been this low since December 1991, when they fell to 1.79 percent, according to Miki Shoji, which started compiling monthly data in 2001.
It's a done deal. now for the unintended consequences. 
Subprime Rate Five-Year Fix Agreed by U.S. Regulators (Update8)
By Alison Vekshin
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal regulators and U.S. lenders agreed to freeze interest rates on subprime mortgages for five years to stem rising foreclosures, said a person familiar with the measure
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...o&refer=economy
Subprime Rate Five-Year Fix Agreed by U.S. Regulators (Update8)
By Alison Vekshin
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal regulators and U.S. lenders agreed to freeze interest rates on subprime mortgages for five years to stem rising foreclosures, said a person familiar with the measure
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...o&refer=economy
Quite a bounce today which looks bullish on the daily chart and merely a dead cat bounce on the weekly. All Ords closed +1.4% with Property Trusts taking over the lead, +3% followed by Healthcare +2.2%. IT continued to lag, +0.3%.
Miners failed to follow up on the morning lead: BHP +1.6%, RIO +0.6% and golds remained a bit this and that, Newcrest +1.6%, Newmont -0.5% and Lihir -0.8%. Juniors were flat to down.
Oils looked reasonable: Woodside +1.4%, Santos +1.8% and Caltex +1.4%.
Over in Asia, only China in the red, -0.5%, India and Singers +1.3%, Nikkers +1.2% and Honkers +0.9%.
On to UK/Europe:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
QUOTE(cwd @ Dec 5 2007, 10:06 PM)
It's a done deal. now for the unintended consequences.
Subprime Rate Five-Year Fix Agreed by U.S. Regulators (Update8)
By Alison Vekshin
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal regulators and U.S. lenders agreed to freeze interest rates on subprime mortgages for five years to stem rising foreclosures, said a person familiar with the measure
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...o&refer=economy
Subprime Rate Five-Year Fix Agreed by U.S. Regulators (Update8)
By Alison Vekshin
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal regulators and U.S. lenders agreed to freeze interest rates on subprime mortgages for five years to stem rising foreclosures, said a person familiar with the measure
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...o&refer=economy
The Administration may be able to muscle U.S. banks and U.S.-based investors holding CDO paper, but what control can they exert over foreign creditors holding same that don't agree to go along with the program?
Will foreign creditors claim exemption from U.S. law and declare that a default/acceleration event has occurred?
I doubt anyone entity can control the credit markets, domestic or global.
IMHO, a lack of clarity, and the inability to quantify risk will result in investors demanding much higher yields, and/or a substantial reduction of capital available to the credit markets.
In the name of political expediency, I believe a giant monkey-wrench has been thrown into the gearbox of the credit machinery.
Also, what about the political blow-back from outraged, responsible citizens (who struggle to meet their obligations in a timely manner) who are furious to see less responsible neighbors receive special privileged treatment?
Indeed, the Law of Unintended Consequences is now in play...
The few who are outraged know that nothing they do, say, or write their congresspeople about will stop the juggernaut from going ahead, so they are shrugging their shoulders and burning inside. Just something else to complain to their friends about.
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 6 2007, 08:42 PM)
The few who are outraged know that nothing they do, say, or write their congresspeople about will stop the juggernaut from going ahead, so they are shrugging their shoulders and burning inside. Just something else to complain to their friends about.
Al, who's your avatar?
This part from the bloomberg article caused 5 minutes of hysterical laugh:
"...Those with scores above 660 will be more closely scrutinized to determine whether they are eligible or must continue making payments under existing terms, said the person..."
Now everyone with adjustable arm and credit score above 660 just have to work HARD to lower their credit score and they will get the benefit too, problem solved in unconventional way
"...Those with scores above 660 will be more closely scrutinized to determine whether they are eligible or must continue making payments under existing terms, said the person..."
Now everyone with adjustable arm and credit score above 660 just have to work HARD to lower their credit score and they will get the benefit too, problem solved in unconventional way
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 6 2007, 09:35 PM)
Al, who's your avatar?
Da Bama Bear.
QUOTE(alceringa @ Dec 6 2007, 06:55 AM)
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 6 2007, 09:35 PM)
Al, who's your avatar?
Da Bama Bear.
Oh.
Great. An utter bastard.
Appropriate for what's about to happen this morning.
QUOTE(curious @ Dec 6 2007, 07:48 AM)
This part from the bloomberg article caused 5 minutes of hysterical laugh:
"...Those with scores above 660 will be more closely scrutinized to determine whether they are eligible or must continue making payments under existing terms, said the person..."
Now everyone with adjustable arm and credit score above 660 just have to work HARD to lower their credit score and they will get the benefit too, problem solved in unconventional way
"...Those with scores above 660 will be more closely scrutinized to determine whether they are eligible or must continue making payments under existing terms, said the person..."
Now everyone with adjustable arm and credit score above 660 just have to work HARD to lower their credit score and they will get the benefit too, problem solved in unconventional way
Additionally while working on reducing FICO score below 660 these folks will save US from consumer recession ! What a plan !
QUOTE(curious @ Dec 6 2007, 06:48 AM)
This part from the bloomberg article caused 5 minutes of hysterical laugh:
"...Those with scores above 660 will be more closely scrutinized to determine whether they are eligible or must continue making payments under existing terms, said the person..."
Now everyone with adjustable arm and credit score above 660 just have to work HARD to lower their credit score and they will get the benefit too, problem solved in unconventional way
"...Those with scores above 660 will be more closely scrutinized to determine whether they are eligible or must continue making payments under existing terms, said the person..."
Now everyone with adjustable arm and credit score above 660 just have to work HARD to lower their credit score and they will get the benefit too, problem solved in unconventional way
Better stop making those auto payments to lower your score real quick. Then the government will issue a 5-year freeze on auto payments and all the deadbeats can have free automobiles. The New Deal: Not for the poor, but for the dead beats. What a country!
This jam may just fail before the open....
Much ado about nothing. The deal will fall apart within days. It's unenforceable, will result in additional writedowns, trigger countless lawsuits, and the simple announcement of this deal will reduce the mortgage market to a shambles. The secondary mortgage market will cease to function. How do you price this stuff if the government can force a change of terms at will?
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 07:56 AM)
Much ado about nothing. The deal will fall apart within days. It's unenforceable, will result in additional writedowns, trigger countless lawsuits, and the simple announcement of this deal will reduce the mortgage market to a shambles. The secondary mortgage market will cease to function. How do you price this stuff if the government can force a change of terms at will?
Surely Paulson knows this. So what's the angle of his dangle in all of this? What's his real goal? A high-ranking officer of the US government really suggesting we repudiate 200 years of contract law (2000 years really)?
EUR/JPY on the edge of a giant cliff here....
QUOTE(FauxCaster @ Dec 6 2007, 08:58 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 07:56 AM)
Much ado about nothing. The deal will fall apart within days. It's unenforceable, will result in additional writedowns, trigger countless lawsuits, and the simple announcement of this deal will reduce the mortgage market to a shambles. The secondary mortgage market will cease to function. How do you price this stuff if the government can force a change of terms at will?
Surely Paulson knows this. So what's the angle of his dangle in all of this? What's his real goal? A high-ranking officer of the US government really suggesting we repudiate 200 years of contract law (2000 years really)?
They already made an irreversible damage just by announcing this utmost idiocy. So I second the question - what is the real plan guys ?
I would say this. Anyone who sold paper that carried a 13% coupon obviously knew that they were fleecing the borrower.
Anyone who bought this paper deserves whatever losses they suffer. The whole process of suckering weak credits into this toxic garbage was a crime. Mass theft on the greatest scale in history.
The mortgage bankers who created, sold and packaged this crap should all go to jail.
Morally, modifying the terms to reverse the devastating effects of this crime is the right thing to do. The creators and holders of this toxic junk deserve whatever losses they suffer. Willful ignorance is not an excuse. The practical effect--everybody loses and the markets have been and will continue to be devastated-- is simple proof of the maxim, "What goes around, comes around", or even better, "You get what you pay for."
Let the prosecutions begin. Hopefully, the bankers who originally created this stuff will not get off scot-free.
Anyone who bought this paper deserves whatever losses they suffer. The whole process of suckering weak credits into this toxic garbage was a crime. Mass theft on the greatest scale in history.
The mortgage bankers who created, sold and packaged this crap should all go to jail.
Morally, modifying the terms to reverse the devastating effects of this crime is the right thing to do. The creators and holders of this toxic junk deserve whatever losses they suffer. Willful ignorance is not an excuse. The practical effect--everybody loses and the markets have been and will continue to be devastated-- is simple proof of the maxim, "What goes around, comes around", or even better, "You get what you pay for."
Let the prosecutions begin. Hopefully, the bankers who originally created this stuff will not get off scot-free.
The most popular option in last night's poll was "I will wait to go short." The least popular for a tie were "I will short the open," and "I will wait for a pullback to go long."
From a contrarian standpoint, the market should be shorted at the open, covered and reversed on the pullback, with the market finishing higher on the day.
From a contrarian standpoint, the market should be shorted at the open, covered and reversed on the pullback, with the market finishing higher on the day.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 06:06 AM)
Anyone who bought this paper deserves whatever losses they suffer. The whole process of suckering weak credits into this toxic garbage was a crime. Mass theft on the greatest scale in history.
Morally, modifying the terms to reverse the devastating effects of this crime is the right thing to do. The creators and holders of this toxic junk deserve whatever losses they suffer. Willful ignorance is not an excuse. The practical effect--everybody loses and the markets have been and will continue to be devastated-- is simple proof of the maxim, "What goes around, comes around", or even better, "You get what you pay for."
Morally, modifying the terms to reverse the devastating effects of this crime is the right thing to do. The creators and holders of this toxic junk deserve whatever losses they suffer. Willful ignorance is not an excuse. The practical effect--everybody loses and the markets have been and will continue to be devastated-- is simple proof of the maxim, "What goes around, comes around", or even better, "You get what you pay for."
I disagree. There are laws that disallow some contracts from being valid. In this case, that paper and terms were sold under valid law. A contract is the basis of the rule of law.
I can't see how you can justify this as the right thing to do. Right for whom? Willful ignorance extends both ways, including the idiot borrowers who just signed on the dotted line. People talk about fiduciary responsibility of agents, but that doesn't give people carte blanche to sign loan documents without a freaking clue.
These buyers of paper deserve the losses they will get - which is when borrowers default and make their paper worthless. Then they get whatever the house sells at firesale prices. Willful ignorance on the part of buyers guarantee their losses.
The FCBs, they deserve all the shaft they are getting up the rear except they can just re-print their losses.
Perspective:
"By many measures, fiscal 2007 was the most challenging of the forty years that Toll Brothers has been in business," said a statement from Chairman Robert Toll. "1974 was perhaps rougher, but the difficult times only lasted one year."
http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/06/news/compa.../toll/index.htm
"By many measures, fiscal 2007 was the most challenging of the forty years that Toll Brothers has been in business," said a statement from Chairman Robert Toll. "1974 was perhaps rougher, but the difficult times only lasted one year."
http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/06/news/compa.../toll/index.htm
QUOTE(elh @ Dec 6 2007, 08:16 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 06:06 AM)
Anyone who bought this paper deserves whatever losses they suffer. The whole process of suckering weak credits into this toxic garbage was a crime. Mass theft on the greatest scale in history.
Morally, modifying the terms to reverse the devastating effects of this crime is the right thing to do. The creators and holders of this toxic junk deserve whatever losses they suffer. Willful ignorance is not an excuse. The practical effect--everybody loses and the markets have been and will continue to be devastated-- is simple proof of the maxim, "What goes around, comes around", or even better, "You get what you pay for."
Morally, modifying the terms to reverse the devastating effects of this crime is the right thing to do. The creators and holders of this toxic junk deserve whatever losses they suffer. Willful ignorance is not an excuse. The practical effect--everybody loses and the markets have been and will continue to be devastated-- is simple proof of the maxim, "What goes around, comes around", or even better, "You get what you pay for."
I disagree. There are laws that disallow some contracts from being valid. In this case, that paper and terms were sold under valid law. A contract is the basis of the rule of law.
I can't see how you can justify this as the right thing to do. Right for whom? Willful ignorance extends both ways, including the idiot borrowers who just signed on the dotted line. People talk about fiduciary responsibility of agents, but that doesn't give people carte blanche to sign loan documents without a freaking clue.
These buyers of paper deserve the losses they will get - which is when borrowers default and make their paper worthless. Then they get whatever the house sells at firesale prices. Willful ignorance on the part of buyers guarantee their losses.
The FCBs, they deserve all the shaft they are getting up the rear except they can just re-print their losses.
I think that's why he began the paragraph with "morally".
QLGC was a nice one yesterday to bad i did not take a trade in it. I am in CRESY for the time being ...
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 07:15 AM)
The most popular option in last night's poll was "I will wait to go short." The least popular for a tie were "I will short the open," and "I will wait for a pullback to go long."
From a contrarian standpoint, the market should be shorted at the open, covered and reversed on the pullback, with the market finishing higher on the day.
From a contrarian standpoint, the market should be shorted at the open, covered and reversed on the pullback, with the market finishing higher on the day.
We hit the target range overnight...it is possible that that was all she wrote. I don't think anyone expects that....every board I read last night, most everyone was looking for higher prices first...including me
Maybe we all get a big surprise....If that EUR/JPY breaks down, all hell could break loose....
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 08:15 AM)
The most popular option in last night's poll was "I will wait to go short." The least popular for a tie were "I will short the open," and "I will wait for a pullback to go long."
From a contrarian standpoint, the market should be shorted at the open, covered and reversed on the pullback, with the market finishing higher on the day.
From a contrarian standpoint, the market should be shorted at the open, covered and reversed on the pullback, with the market finishing higher on the day.
This board has the best and brightest contrarian thinkers on it... if you want the contrarian standpoint to that just turn on Crapvision.
spoos red
i think i may get some puts on this one .... going to monitor. OIH looks bearish. Just waiting to see if price action confirms
What is the purported reason for the reversal into the red? TOL? How is that news a surprise to anyone?
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Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!
You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.
Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply.
If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page.
If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.
Many tanks for joining us!
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Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don't find the information helpful, I'll give you a full refund. It's that simple!Click here for more information.
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Dog eats dog.
Morgan downgrades Goldman.
How bout that!
Morgan downgrades Goldman.
How bout that!
qqqq has pulled back to the 5 day cycle MA at 51.56, putting 3 day cycle indicators on the sell side, and 5 day on the cusp. 5 hr cycle projection looks 51.50-.55
spy 5 hr cycle projection looks 148.33.
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 6 2007, 02:13 PM)
What is the purported reason for the reversal into the red? TOL? How is that news a surprise to anyone?
Nice to see a bit of red. I had to scramble yesterday to get out of my FSLR short but I kept my AMZN short. Still short the Euro and the GBP here also.
dia 5 hr projection looks 133.90
All of which suggests just a slightly lower open.
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 6 2007, 04:42 AM)
The few who are outraged know that nothing they do, say, or write their congresspeople about will stop the juggernaut from going ahead, so they are shrugging their shoulders and burning inside. Just something else to complain to their friends about.
Isn't that the purpose of this site? How do we make money from the prevailing situation of which we have no input or control?
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 07:56 AM)
Much ado about nothing. The deal will fall apart within days. It's unenforceable, will result in additional writedowns, trigger countless lawsuits, and the simple announcement of this deal will reduce the mortgage market to a shambles. The secondary mortgage market will cease to function. How do you price this stuff if the government can force a change of terms at will?
I echo your sentiments, but you touched on a personal sore point for me.
My experience has been that the "government" can force a change of terms at will on many financial related contracts. It has happened to me several times when the other party to a contract either goes into bankruptcy or is bought out. The fine print on most sophisticated financial contracts is that the side with all the power can change terms with little or no notice to the other side. Banks can certainly jack up interest rates on credit cards when one bank takes out another, for example.
Knock on wood, as I said I have experienced these one sided changes, but have had the flexibility to dodge the bullets.
I do not in any way disagree with anything else you said and am not suggesting that they can do anything similar in this much larger situation.
QUOTE(Mies van der Rump @ Dec 6 2007, 07:22 AM)
Let the cutting begin. Nobody wants a strong currency.
qqqq should have shport in the 51.50-.57 area. small air pocket below to the 8 day cycle MA at 51.32.
Every time they smack gold overnight, it comes back with a vengeance.
Very bullish action.
Very bullish action.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 6 2007, 07:56 AM)
Much ado about nothing. The deal will fall apart within days. It's unenforceable, will result in additional writedowns, trigger countless lawsuits, and the simple announcement of this deal will reduce the mortgage market to a shambles. The secondary mortgage market will cease to function. How do you price this stuff if the government can force a change of terms at will?
How do you undo the deal?
Looks like stick save on EUR/JPY
A deal is just words. Meaningless. But the damage is done and can't be undone. No doubt about it.
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Dec 6 2007, 08:29 AM)
Every time they smack gold overnight, it comes back with a vengeance.
Very bullish action.
Very bullish action.
isn't this whole mess the reason you buy gold? that is what irks me....
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