http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

No irrational exuberance today in spite of the US rise. All Ords up a modest 0.5% led by Energy, Financials and Healthcare, all +0.9%. At the other end Consumer Staples and Telecomms are both +0.1%.

In the miners, BHP +0.7% and RIO -1.3%. Golds are also mixed: Newcrest flat, Newmont -0.3% and Lihir +1.6%.

Oils looking ok: Woodside +1.3%, Santos +1.9% and Caltex -0.7%.

South African Central Bank Raises Key Rate to 11%

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, the fourth increase this year, as it forecast that inflation will stay outside of the target range until the second half of 2008.

The repurchase rate was increased to 11 percent, the bank's Governor Tito Mboweni said in a televised speech from Pretoria today.

Inflation, which exceeded the central bank's 3 percent to 6 percent target range for a seventh consecutive month in October, is now expected to peak at an average of 7.8 percent in the first quarter, Mboweni said, up from a previous forecast of 6.8 percent.

More free money...

Kuwaiti Emir Orders $1 Billion Fund to Help Debtors

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Kuwait's ruling Emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, ordered the government to set up a $1 billion fund to help insolvent citizens, the state-run KUNA news agency reported, citing the Gulf state's prime minister.

About 90 million dinars ($328 million) of bad debts are subject to legal proceedings in Kuwait, Finance Minister Mustafa al-Shimali said after the prime minister's announcement, according to KUNA. Defaulting citizens helped by the fund would repay their debt at a later stage, he was quoted saying.

Ukrainian Inflation Accelerated to 15.2% in November

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Ukrainian inflation accelerated to 15.2 percent in November, the fastest since May 2001, the state statistics office reported.

The inflation rate surged in November from 14.8 percent the month before, the state statistics office reported today on its Web site. Consumer prices rose a monthly 2.2 percent, led by prices for food and manufactured products.

Inflation is the biggest challenge for all Eastern European governments, according to the International Monetary Fund. Consumer price growth is picking up because of worldwide increases in food costs, making it harder for some governments to stick to euro adoption plans and others to control their economic expansion.

Bank of England Cuts Rates, Says Inflation Will Slow

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in two years, casting aside inflation concerns as the surging cost of credit threatens to derail economic growth.

The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, reduced the bank rate by a quarter-point to 5.5 percent. The central bank said in a statement that ``conditions in financial markets have deteriorated,'' adding to ``downside risks'' to consumer prices and the economy.

looks good for another assblast ehhh

Futures have turned up already from being down a "huge" couple of points.

By the way, I'll be gone all day. Since I lost my powers, it's up to Doc to leave if bears are to have any mojo.

All Ords continued to move up thru the day and at this stage I think there's a challenge coming up for those all-time highs. All Ords closed +0.8% with Healthcare taking the lead, +1.2% followed by Utilities, +1.1%. IT dropped into the rear, +0.1%.

Not much joy in the big miners, BHP +0.3% and RIO flat. Golds shuffled around, Newcrest +1.2%, Newmont -0.7% and Lihir +0.3%.

Oils bogged down: Woodside +1.3%, Santos +0.2% and Caltex -0.7%.

Asia fading as the day progresses: Singers +1.8%, China +1%, Honkers +0.6% and Nikkers +0.9%.


On to UK/Europe:







http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Backlash to mortgage bailout noted in front page Washington Post story. The pols are in the hotseat now!

Tip of the old iceberg.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ST2007120600734

Turns out the plan is purely voluntary.

Much adoodoo about nothing.

WSJ poll:

Will Bush's mortgage plan have an impact on the housing crisis?






Yes, it will make matters better...............(20%) 177 votes
Yes, it will make matters worse............. (44%) 382 votes
No, it won’t make a difference.................(36%) 320 votes

CEO of the year, and finalists. Is this like the Barron's cover curse?

http://www.marketwatch.com/ceooftheyear/20...MailMWCEOWinner

Or, is the Readers' Choice CEO of the year the real fade?

http://community.marketwatch.com/featured/...eadersCEOWinner

8 charts added to the Chart Pick list in today's Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Precious Metals Report. Worth a look.

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Good Morning!

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The least popular option in last night's poll was to sell all longs at the open. The second least popular was to go long at the open. I guess the contrary view would be to both. A little rotation music please.

The most popular options were to do nothing, or make like Alfred E. Newman.

That suggests that something really big is going to happen today. Those who wanted to go short, outnumbered those who wanted to go long by 2 to 1.

From all that I would deduce that the market will go straight up all day, but that yesterday's winners will be today's laggards, and yesterday's laggards will be today's winners.



Keep in mind that yesterday the market did exactly the opposite of what the most popular strategy was, and was exactly in line with the least popular strategy. If that keeps up, we are going to have to learn how to fade ourselves. Won't that be confusing.

But it's good fun.

Holy CRAP. What was that all about.

Bonds are collapsing.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-n...D&dist=hplatest

Over half the added jobs were a WAG.

The CES birth death model is 51 mill, which is 15 mill more than the number last year.

Skeptical, yes. Convenient, yes.

Does it matter, no.

If price is an indicator of psychology and liquidity, all is good and better than it was some time ago and almost as good as in June or July before the crisis.

Well if this is a major reversal in the bond market, the gummit bailout plan isn't going to make a dam bit of difference now, is it?

As I discussed in yesterday's Fed report, there's plenty of excess liquidity at the moment. That will not be the case in the not too distant future as the flows I was talking about reverse. This is the final setup for the crash.

So the futures upmove on the news was about 4 points? Where are the pre-market moonshots of yesteryear -- I mean yesterday.....?

EDIT: oh, it was just a little later than instantaneous. Bleah.

Not that this matters to market price, but I am curious about the phenomenon.

When "economists" estimate/predict the emplyement numbers before the release, do they also make a prediction about how many jobs will re revised lower for the previous reporting periods.

For example, today's release said the prior two months were revised lower by 48 mill. So, when the exonomics pre-survey said an increase of 88 mill, did they include in that number the fact that the prior numbers would be revised lower. Or did the economists really over-estimate Novembers released numbers after taking into accounts the prior months revisions.

CES Net Birth/Death Model

Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 94K

Payrolls - surprise surprise, the model added more than last year, so even in the face of Christmas hiring, the job market was weak

So, the jobs model is assuming that small businesses are hiring more than ever but small business manager confidence is hitting lows normally seen at the start of a recession

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

added 51K (36K last year)



(edit) very mixed picture

However, a separate survey of households showed the strongest job growth in nearly six years, with 696,000 more people saying they had jobs in November.

ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment: 189K


ISM Non-Mfg Survey: the non-manufacturing employment index dipped 1 point to 50.8 in a reading, in contrast to this morning's ADP report, that confirms only modest expectations for payroll growth.

Initial jobless claims: 338K, the 4 week moving average is on the verge of breaking out to the upside...
http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/reports/US/...y/49/index.html

we got the Home bailout,
we better get a Credit Card bailout next

8:50[COF] Credit card firms weak after Merrill's sector downgrade
8:50[COF] Capital One shares fall 5.6% to $49.50 in pre-open trade
8:50[COF] American Express shares fall 1.8% to $58.48 in pre-open

Something is happening in the Market, huge blocks were privately traded outside of exchangers in black box anonymous trading. Such trades do not affect price directly; however, they circumvent what the public knows about price.

Adjusting chairs on the Titanic?

How do you get that info?

As I mentioned yesterday the fallout from the credit mess may not be shared equally by all institutions. In today's Globe and Mail.

At CIBC, the bad old days are back

Ahhh....
Just as i expected. No matter what the numbers are we were going to jam.
Was that it?

I've always just seen you guys refer to it as the CIBC. I didn't realize that it was the Imperial bank, of the Canadian Empire.

The angle of ascend on every rally is getting steeper and steeper. It's gone completely vertical on this one. The Dow is up over 900+ points in 8 trading days with all of it's gains in 4 days!!!

These trades are over a billion, and that is just a fraction of the stock universe I am looking at. And all these are concentrated in beaten down sectors such as financials, construction, REITs, homebuilders.

are you still short?

embarrassingly sloppy gov't gold slapdown and crude buckoff fer show right before stocks open

please at least try to make it look real, sheesh

I wonder how many of us think this market will reach new highs soon (2-3 weeks).
Most bears don't believe it....almost all the bulls i know don't believe it.....

Doc, can you create a poll?

as LEEWHEE said look at the time compression of these rallies off their lows....time is getting shorter....about half the time it takes from the lows to the highs on every previous rally... we may not be very far away from the big one....

It shows up as pre-opening volume. But, I do not know reporting rules on these.

Yes sir....
Average about 1508 on ES.

So much for those commentators that I have seen over the years who say that the market goes down faster than it goes up.

Actually a reference to the British Empire. Still, a bit anachronistic, don't you think, old chap?






Any registered user can add a poll to the thread. Just click the ADD POLL button.

Why should they? Free markets and all, that is freely manipulated without constraints of antitrust or the like.

As I have pointed out, the opposite is true in bear markets.

Compressed for? A move up or down?

After yesterday, two comments.

One - how do you use the term bear market as you did in this post? If there is a definition, then again my question from yesterday is when would the bear market (if that is what we are in) change back to the bull market?

Second - my feeble reptile mind is telling me that we have been in a bull market forever. (At least it feels that way today.)

qqqq 3 day cycle indicators again on the cusp, as qqqq pulls back to the 3 day cycle MA at 52.19 and holds.

DJ Fed Accepts $12 Bln In 3-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 3-Day RPs
Total accepted: $12 Bln
Total submitted: $57.5 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $25.35 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.48%
Low-rate submitted: 4.31%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $12 Bln
Total submitted: $26.8 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.37%
Weighted Average: 4.37%
High-rate submitted: 4.4%
Low-rate submitted: 4.25%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $5.35 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.48%
Low-rate submitted: 4.42%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).