DrStool
Dec 10 2007, 08:48 PM
The circus comes to town tomorrow.
shorty
Dec 10 2007, 09:02 PM
I don't think the rate cut will run stocks up
I think we're on the verge of a crash, led by China
Hong Kong was down 716 points Friday, down another 341 last night
wouldn't be surprised to see it down 5,000 points this week
shorty
Dec 10 2007, 09:07 PM
U.S. gov't debentures down again today
Slothrop
Dec 10 2007, 09:21 PM
I think that's an a-b-c down on the U-S bond chart, Shorty. Likely support there at 113/114 and another longer-term trend line exists at that level.
Global investors dumping stocks this week will be going for the, uh, "safety" of Treasuries.
Bungster
Dec 10 2007, 09:37 PM
Brought my GF...where's the popcorn?
[attachmentid=93571]
Sudaca
Dec 10 2007, 09:43 PM
TNX:IRX ratio going up reflects a steepening of the government yield curve.
Thye real problem today is not the shape of the government's yield curve, but the shape of the swap curve, which remains inverted, and by the highest margin on record. This is not a trivial issue, as the swap curve reflects the difference between a bank's funding cost and its lending rate. Each time this has happened, there was a period of bank lending contraction, which had recessionary effects. The fact that this curve is the most inverted it has been in 20 years, even as the Fed has already cut 75bps means that the problem is much worse than in the past and the Fed needs to cut aggressively in order to try and pull the swap curve back into shape to get the transmission mechanism going again. So far, it has accomplished nothing.
mdporter
Dec 10 2007, 09:47 PM
AAV is up to a 17.8% dividend according to yahoo finance. I am thinking of adding to my position here with a stop around $9.75.
mdporter
Dec 10 2007, 09:57 PM
Derivative Trades Jump 27% to Record $681 Trillion (Update1)
By Hamish Risk
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Derivatives traded on exchanges surged 27 percent to a record $681 trillion in the third quarter, the biggest increase in three years, the Bank for International Settlements said.
Interest-rate futures, contracts designed to speculate on or hedge against moves in borrowing rates, led the increase with a 31 percent increase to $594 trillion during the three months ended Sept. 30, the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said today in its quarterly review. The amounts are based on the notional amount underlying the contracts.
Trading surged as investors bet on losses linked to record U.S. mortgage foreclosures and policy changes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to offset the credit slump. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by half a point to 4.75 percent in September, the central bank's first reduction in four years.BloombergHow is it possible the derivative market can get larger and larger without consequence?
phatbubble
Dec 10 2007, 09:58 PM
NAR spokesman Lawrence Yun on Crapvision talking about 'significant pent-up demand' driving the housing market higher going into next year. Not even the reporters believed it.
I really feel for that guy. He may as well come on in vaudevillian dress and strum and moan through a Pent Up Demand Revue like a witless minstrel.
Sudaca
Dec 10 2007, 10:05 PM
QUOTE(mdporter @ Dec 10 2007, 04:57 PM)
How is it possible the derivative market can get larger and larger without consequence?
How is it possible that the article is written by a dude called
Amish Risk ?
cwd
Dec 10 2007, 10:07 PM
QUOTE(shorty @ Dec 10 2007, 04:02 PM)
I don't think the rate cut will run stocks up
I think we're on the verge of a crash, led by China
Hong Kong was down
716 points Friday, down another
341 last night
wouldn't be surprised to see it down 5,000 points this week
CNBSer, it is the global growth story.
alceringa
Dec 10 2007, 10:08 PM
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 11 2007, 08:43 AM)
TNX:IRX ratio going up reflects a steepening of the government yield curve.
Thye real problem today is not the shape of the government's yield curve, but the shape of the swap curve, which remains inverted, and by the highest margin on record. This is not a trivial issue, as the swap curve reflects the difference between a bank's funding cost and its lending rate. Each time this has happened, there was a period of bank lending contraction, which had recessionary effects. The fact that this curve is the most inverted it has been in 20 years, even as the Fed has already cut 75bps means that the problem is much worse than in the past and the Fed needs to cut aggressively in order to try and pull the swap curve back into shape to get the transmission mechanism going again. So far, it has accomplished nothing.
Sudsy-
Wow! Believe you and can't recall hearing about that before.
Got a link to chart of swap curve?
TIA
cwd
Dec 10 2007, 10:12 PM
QUOTE(mdporter @ Dec 10 2007, 04:57 PM)
Derivative Trades Jump 27% to Record $681 Trillion (Update1)
By Hamish Risk
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Derivatives traded on exchanges surged 27 percent to a record $681 trillion in the third quarter, the biggest increase in three years, the Bank for International Settlements said.
Interest-rate futures, contracts designed to speculate on or hedge against moves in borrowing rates, led the increase with a 31 percent increase to $594 trillion during the three months ended Sept. 30, the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said today in its quarterly review. The amounts are based on the notional amount underlying the contracts.
Trading surged as investors bet on losses linked to record U.S. mortgage foreclosures and policy changes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to offset the credit slump. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by half a point to 4.75 percent in September, the central bank's first reduction in four years.BloombergHow is it possible the derivative market can get larger and larger without consequence?
As long as things don't change, The sellers collect the premium and the buyers get protection and can lever higher.
cwd
Dec 10 2007, 10:14 PM
QUOTE(phatbubble @ Dec 10 2007, 04:58 PM)
NAR spokesman Lawrence Yun on Crapvision talking about 'significant pent-up demand' driving the housing market higher going into next year. Not even the reporters believed it.
I really feel for that guy. He may as well come on in vaudevillian dress and strum and moan through a Pent Up Demand Revue like a witless minstrel.
You haven't seen his paycheck,
Bungster
Dec 10 2007, 10:17 PM
I continue to monitor the buy/sell signals....still seeing many more buys than sells here - by 5 to 1.... until that changes we gots ourselves demand here...
cwd
Dec 10 2007, 10:19 PM
Things are still cooking in Florida.
Posted on Mon, Dec. 10, 2007
Sour state investments jolt local governments
BY GARY FINEOUT AND MARTHA BRANNIGAN
The head of the agency that manages billions of dollars for the state dropped a bomb on his bosses in a mid-November meeting: About $2.28 billion in investments were going sour.
Some of the investments, all of which had fallen below purchase guidelines, were in a fund where local governments and school boards stashed operating funds until they were needed.
Over the following two weeks, as word got out, Florida municipalities yanked $10 billion from the Local Government Investment Pool in a classic run-on-the-bank scenario. Only an emergency freeze on Nov. 29 stopped the stampede for the exits.
Last week, the executive director of the State Board of Administration, Coleman Stipanovich, resigned under pressure. The state hired BlackRock, a Wall Street investment management firm, to guide the state out of the mess by segregating the troubled investments into a separate fund and limiting withdrawals from the healthy fund while it works out the problems.
And the problem is far from over: Alex Sink, the state's chief financial officer, who had pressed Stipanovich for the Nov. 14 finacial update that triggered the run, plans to ask auditors to probe what happened.
http://www.miamiherald.com/business/v-prin...ory/338691.html
I_Am_Madness
Dec 10 2007, 10:20 PM
QUOTE(Bungster @ Dec 10 2007, 05:17 PM)
I continue to monitor the buy/sell signals....still seeing many more buys than sells here - by 5 to 1.... until that changes we gots ourselves demand here...

Bung,
Is this a leading indicator? On the last top back in October, did this rollover first or did the market correct first? If the market did correct first, how many DOW points have the market dropped before this signal rolled over to more sells than buys?
Just trying to see how this signal can be used effectively.
Sudaca
Dec 10 2007, 10:21 PM
QUOTE(alceringa @ Dec 10 2007, 05:08 PM)
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 11 2007, 08:43 AM)
TNX:IRX ratio going up reflects a steepening of the government yield curve.
Thye real problem today is not the shape of the government's yield curve, but the shape of the swap curve, which remains inverted, and by the highest margin on record. This is not a trivial issue, as the swap curve reflects the difference between a bank's funding cost and its lending rate. Each time this has happened, there was a period of bank lending contraction, which had recessionary effects. The fact that this curve is the most inverted it has been in 20 years, even as the Fed has already cut 75bps means that the problem is much worse than in the past and the Fed needs to cut aggressively in order to try and pull the swap curve back into shape to get the transmission mechanism going again. So far, it has accomplished nothing.
Sudsy-
Wow! Believe you and can't recall hearing about that before.
Got a link to chart of swap curve?
TIA
5yr swap rate (where banks lend) - 6 month LIBOR (where banks get funding):
Drano
Dec 10 2007, 10:23 PM
QUOTE(Brick Stoolhouse @ Dec 10 2007, 02:50 PM)
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 10 2007, 02:42 PM)
out for the rest of the day.
In that case I'll be loading up on the puts!
Alas, my powers have inverted. Did you notice how things solidified and went UP after I left?
You'd better hope I stick around all day tomorrow.
DrStool
Dec 10 2007, 10:36 PM
QUOTE(cwd @ Dec 10 2007, 05:19 PM)
Things are still cooking Florida.
Posted on Mon, Dec. 10, 2007
Sour state investments jolt local governments
BY GARY FINEOUT AND MARTHA BRANNIGAN
The head of the agency that manages billions of dollars for the state dropped a bomb on his bosses in a mid-November meeting: About $2.28 billion in investments were going sour.
Some of the investments, all of which had fallen below purchase guidelines, were in a fund where local governments and school boards stashed operating funds until they were needed.
Over the following two weeks, as word got out, Florida municipalities yanked $10 billion from the Local Government Investment Pool in a classic run-on-the-bank scenario. Only an emergency freeze on Nov. 29 stopped the stampede for the exits.
Last week, the executive director of the State Board of Administration, Coleman Stipanovich, resigned under pressure. The state hired BlackRock, a Wall Street investment management firm, to guide the state out of the mess by segregating the troubled investments into a separate fund and limiting withdrawals from the healthy fund while it works out the problems.
And the problem is far from over: Alex Sink, the state's chief financial officer, who had pressed Stipanovich for the Nov. 14 finacial update that triggered the run, plans to ask auditors to probe what happened.
http://www.miamiherald.com/business/v-prin...ory/338691.htmlTwo weeks after this story was first reported, it is finally making it to the front pages of Florida's major media outlets. What a goddamn joke.
DrStool
Dec 10 2007, 10:40 PM
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 10 2007, 05:05 PM)
QUOTE(mdporter @ Dec 10 2007, 04:57 PM)
How is it possible the derivative market can get larger and larger without consequence?
How is it possible that the article is written by a dude called
Amish Risk ?

Actually, his name is Hamish Risk. Hamish (heymish), is what you say when you want to get
Mish's attention.
Hamish is also Yiddish for: domestic, home-made, cozy, snug, familiar, intimate, informal
That works. The guy writes about risk. I suspect it is a pen name.
elh
Dec 10 2007, 10:43 PM
Lee,
After so many years in the game, you still get upset about the b.s. you're fully aware of. Sigh.
Reminds me of myself getting agitated when I have to listen to your socialist rants.
Scorpio rage.
mdporter
Dec 10 2007, 10:43 PM
MORTGAGE MELTDOWN
Interest rate 'freeze' - the real story is fraud
Bankers pay lip service to families while scurrying to avert suits, prison
Sean Olender
Sunday, December 9, 2007
New proposals to ease our great mortgage meltdown keep rolling in. First the Treasury Department urged the creation of a new fund that would buy risky mortgage bonds as a tactic to hide what those bonds were really worth. (Not much.) Then the idea was to use Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy the risky loans, even if it was clear that U.S. taxpayers would eventually be stuck with the bill. But that plan went south after Fannie suffered a new accounting scandal, and Freddie's existing loan losses shot up more than expected.
Now, just unveiled Thursday, comes the "freeze," the brainchild of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. It sounds good: For five years, mortgage lenders will freeze interest rates on a limited number of "teaser" subprime loans. Other homeowners facing foreclosure will be offered assistance from the Federal Housing Administration.
But unfortunately, the "freeze" is just another fraud - and like the other bailout proposals, it has nothing to do with U.S. house prices, with "working families," keeping people in their homes or any of that nonsense.San Francisco ChronicleWow, maybe journalism isn't completely dead after all! How refreshing to see fraud called out for what it really is.
elh
Dec 10 2007, 10:44 PM
Posted an update to today's blogpost.
WaMoo dropped a bomb. Ho-hum.
elh
Dec 10 2007, 10:50 PM
I'm probably gonna unload my Wa-Moo puts tomorrow.
Should be fun.
Private Skidmark
Dec 10 2007, 10:54 PM
I smell the elephants. Which way to the egress?
And speaking of circuses, the supporters of a certain presidential candidate launch a blimp in his name later this week. I've been looking forward to this week more than most.
Sudaca
Dec 10 2007, 10:56 PM
Summation Index tuned up, confirming the short term uptrend.
Looks like the market ship still has wind in its sails.
Drano
Dec 10 2007, 10:57 PM
QUOTE(Private Skidmark @ Dec 10 2007, 05:54 PM)
I smell the elephants. Which way to the egress?
That gal on the right in the zebra-skin skirt could really use a make-over.
K Wave Rider
Dec 10 2007, 10:59 PM
Well da bullz may have held it up long enough to turn the tide IT...
We are still in an area where the bears could turn it back down, but it would pretty much need to be hard and immediate, like after Fed Head tomorrow (or even before)....
Dow futs are in an area where a sell signal could certainly come, but I don't have one yet....and we are now far enough above the 13,500 area, that it could easily become support now on a decline...
Will be watching things like GS and FXI tomorrow..we got some pre-explosion/implosion patterns here......
Am looking for some very tradable action tomorrow...
Bungster
Dec 10 2007, 11:11 PM
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Dec 10 2007, 05:20 PM)
QUOTE(Bungster @ Dec 10 2007, 05:17 PM)
I continue to monitor the buy/sell signals....still seeing many more buys than sells here - by 5 to 1.... until that changes we gots ourselves demand here...

Bung,
Is this a leading indicator? On the last top back in October, did this rollover first or did the market correct first? If the market did correct first, how many DOW points have the market dropped before this signal rolled over to more sells than buys?
Just trying to see how this signal can be used effectively.
I get the numbers from a service that scans on a daily basis...so I don't have the numbers to go back in time. These numbers can be used on a 5, 10 and 20 DMA basis. The last turn was predicted early (Nov 23) on the 20DMA...but the day to day signal didn't reflect this until EOD on the 27th of November....It's kinda odd that the 20DMA gave an early indication but I think it served as an effective filter and effectively filtered out short term signal abberations.
My experience is that it shows the turn and sometimes shows weakness before a turn.
Here's a list of the most recent turns the 20DMA of this signal has detected....Aug 17, Oct 18, and Nov 23...not too bad a track record.
cwd
Dec 10 2007, 11:12 PM
Bank of America to Liquidate $12 Billion Cash Fund (Update3)
By Shannon D. Harrington and Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. will liquidate a $12 billion cash fund for wealthy clients and institutions, the largest investment of its type to close because of losses tied to the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market.
The fund, Columbia Strategic Cash Portfolio, was sold as an alternative to money-market funds, offering a higher yield by taking more risk. It was the biggest so-called enhanced cash fund, with $33 billion in assets two weeks ago before an investor pulled more than $20 billion, said Peter Crane, founder of Crane Data LLC, the Westborough, Massachusetts-based publisher of the Money Fund Intelligence.
``This could be the death of enhanced cash funds,'' Crane said. Such funds hold about $850 billion in assets.
Some Bank of America investors will get their money back at net asset value, which fluctuates and currently is 99.4 cents on the dollar, Robert Stickler, a spokesman for the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company, said today in an interview. Other investors may get control of specific assets.
I like the last sentence.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...l_0&refer=home#
cwd
Dec 10 2007, 11:13 PM
QUOTE(elh @ Dec 10 2007, 05:43 PM)
Lee,
After so many years in the game, you still get upset about the b.s. you're fully aware of. Sigh.
Reminds me of myself getting agitated when I have to listen to your socialist rants.
Scorpio rage.
Touche
Brisbane Bear
Dec 10 2007, 11:14 PM
how the mighty fall.
Conrad Black sentenced to 6.5 yrs jail today.
UFB
Drano
Dec 10 2007, 11:20 PM
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Dec 10 2007, 06:14 PM)
how the mighty fall.
Conrad Black sentenced to 6.5 yrs jail today.
UFB
What was Martha Stewart's sentence for the lousy 200K she scalped with her insider information?
Why isn't this guy in jail forever?
Brisbane Bear
Dec 10 2007, 11:27 PM
He was pretty lucky from the sounds of things,it could have been much worse.
Greed gets them all in the end...
elh
Dec 10 2007, 11:42 PM
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Dec 10 2007, 04:27 PM)
He was pretty lucky from the sounds of things,it could have been much worse.
Greed gets them all in the end...

All I care about is whether he goes to Club Fed, or whether he becomes Bubba's wife.
Peek Paper
Dec 10 2007, 11:49 PM
QUOTE(Private Skidmark @ Dec 10 2007, 05:54 PM)
I smell the elephants. Which way to the egress?
And speaking of circuses, the supporters of a certain presidential candidate launch a blimp in his name later this week. I've been looking forward to this week more than most.

Brings a tear to my eye ... strange days, indeed. Where's TE (Jimmy Morrison avatar) ? Remember when albums actually had covers?
Get used to the street scene. Midget carnivals will be a prime revenue stream for increasingly unemployed/work-released I banksters.
Drano
Dec 11 2007, 12:21 AM
Did someone say they could smell the elephants?
alceringa
Dec 11 2007, 12:30 AM
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Dec 11 2007, 10:14 AM)
how the mighty fall.
Conrad Black sentenced to 6.5 yrs jail today.
UFB
Please, please, please.
He may be guilty of wire fraud and racketeering, but it is still
The Right Honourable Lord Black, Baron of Crossharbour member Her Majesty's Privy Council and Life Peer of the Realm.
Brisbane Bear
Dec 11 2007, 12:34 AM
and inmate number 3453243256723.
I suspect he will top himself before he ever steps foot in a prison.
No Einstein
Dec 11 2007, 12:44 AM
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 10 2007, 06:20 PM)
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Dec 10 2007, 06:14 PM)
how the mighty fall.
Conrad Black sentenced to 6.5 yrs jail today.
UFB
What was Martha Stewart's sentence for the lousy 200K she scalped with her insider information?
Why isn't this guy in jail forever?
I believe Martha Stewart's was convicted of lying not insider trading
DrStool
Dec 11 2007, 12:47 AM
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 10 2007, 06:20 PM)
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Dec 10 2007, 06:14 PM)
how the mighty fall.
Conrad Black sentenced to 6.5 yrs jail today.
UFB
What was Martha Stewart's sentence for the lousy 200K she scalped with her insider information?
Why isn't this guy in jail forever?
What is it with you and Martha? You got a thing for her?
Black's sentence is 10 times what she got. The administration of justice is relative, capricious, and more often than not, unfair.
elh
Dec 11 2007, 12:54 AM
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Dec 10 2007, 05:34 PM)
I suspect he will top himself before he ever steps foot in a prison.
Would save taxpayer resources.
But I'd be willing to shell another 2 cents in gas tax to see him in Pelican Bay.
Drano
Dec 11 2007, 12:56 AM
I never thought Martha should go to prison for what she did. We see all these guys doing truly horrible things that cost innocent people their retirement money, their whole futures... and what Martha reaped for her insider trading was bupkis. Martha gleaned a couple hundred thou, while these creeps who oversaw Merrill and Citi walked away with hundreds of millions on the backs of the shareholders and all taxpayers who will end up bailing out these companies.
Makes me want to puke.
And I don't even like Martha Stewart. Shall I re-post that "Martha Stewart holiday calendar" again?
Bungster
Dec 11 2007, 12:57 AM
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 10 2007, 07:47 PM)
QUOTE(Drano @ Dec 10 2007, 06:20 PM)
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Dec 10 2007, 06:14 PM)
how the mighty fall.
Conrad Black sentenced to 6.5 yrs jail today.
UFB
What was Martha Stewart's sentence for the lousy 200K she scalped with her insider information?
Why isn't this guy in jail forever?
What is it with you and Martha? You got a thing for her?
Black's sentence is 10 times what she got. The administration of justice is relative, capricious, and more often than not, unfair.
Maybe it's not Martha Stewart....but rather her daughter Alexis??
[attachmentid=93582] [attachmentid=93583]
Drano
Dec 11 2007, 12:58 AM
Forgot to mention the CEO of United Healthcare, McGuire, who is now repaying 600 effing MILLLION dollars from his options backdating scandal. Why isn't he going to asspounding prison? He didn't even have to plead guilty to anything. Meanwhile people like me have paid grossly higher health insurance premiums than we should have had to pay, to support these criminals in their thievery.
Brisbane Bear
Dec 11 2007, 01:19 AM
I don't know how you can discern one crook being more deserving than another crook.
The bottom line with all of these crooks is that they were greedy.
These people like Martha and Conrad lived like Kings and Queens,yet they still wanted more.
They are like polticians, they have no idea how ordinary folk live.
It will be an amazing culture shock for someone like Conrad Black to go from butlers,mansions,penthouses,private jets,holidays and spending sprees to prison.
Most folks are enjoying a sense of schedenfreude with Blacks demise because he was such a pompous ass whose arrogance knew no bounds.
Then there is his wife...
elh
Dec 11 2007, 01:24 AM
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Dec 10 2007, 06:19 PM)
I don't know how you can decern one crook being more deserving than another crook.
The bottom line with all of these crooks is that they were greedy.
These people like Martha and Conrad lived like Kings and Queens,yet they still wanted more.
They are like polticians, they have no idea how ordinary folk live.
It will be an amazing culture shock for someone like Conrad Black to go from butlers,mansions,penthouses,private jets,holidays and spending sprees to prison.
Most folks are enjoying a sense of schedenfreude with Blacks demise because he was such a pompous ass whose arrogance knew no bounds.
Then there is his wife...

Word.
Applying political correctness to billionaire white-collar criminals is an exercise in wasted energy and thought.
Think of all that mental energy and dead brain cells you can't get back.
elh
Dec 11 2007, 01:27 AM
I'm starting to suspect that Drano is a woman.

I'm putting away my locker room humor now.
elh
Dec 11 2007, 01:34 AM
C'mon fellas. Vote for the most electable Republican.
[attachmentid=93584]
=====================
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/10/us/polit...nd-poll.html?hpG.O.P. Voters Are Uninspired by Candidates
Three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, Republicans voters across the country appear uninspired by their field of presidential candidates, with a vast majority saying they have not made a final decision about who to support, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
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