Interesting little comeback in the last hour.

I can't recall a time where the 'powers that be', have fought so hard to avoid a recession??

Some of the 'older' heads seem non plussed as well.

Maybe things are even worse than we imagine.

Recessions are very healthy for the overall economy.

Are depressions

looks like the UK real estate bubble is deflating.

The idea that a slowdown is 'good' because it will allow 'poorer' people a chance to 'get in' is absolute crap...

U.K. Housing Market Outlook Is Gloomiest Since 1998


Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. real-estate agents and surveyors became the most pessimistic about house prices since at least 1998 last month as a property-market decline spread to London, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.

Investors are betting on a 10 percent drop in property prices next year, and it's no ``bad thing'' because it would help poorer Britons afford a home, Morgan Stanley Chief U.K. Economist David Miles said this week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...nwfQ&refer=home

OK, let's whip out our dongs:

JBLU is a genuine bargain here, plus now with the $300 Mil fresh caSSh their survival is aSSured. Should be good for a run to 20 next year.

TASR is a heavily over-shorted powder keg that will rocket higher when giant international orders are booked. Likely double.

JAVA is a solid company and the stock is about as cheap as it's gonna get. KKR has incentive to goose it because of the convertibles. New consumer products could make it the next AAPL-like super-monbacker.

Anyone using Scottrade data streams have trouble with them locking-up from time to time during market volatility, over the last three days?

I have.

Nothing more aggravating than trying to place a trade with the on-line broker windows locked-up.

Just wondering.

My computer functioned normally with other internal programs and files, and I could access other websites; just the Scottrade windows were inoperative..

Anyone have any experience (pro or con) with ThinkorSwim, trading options in particular?

TIA.

OK, but those of you in the front row are gonna hafta lean back a bit...

Buy/Sell signals I monitor are giving the red caution here.....lightening up on longs and looking to short soon...

The second largest shopping centre owner is OZ is about to be walloped.

Fancy buying Malls in the US.

I have been stalking our biggest shopping centre owner Westfield for years.It will be the short of the century when the shite hits the fan...

Centro feels pinch of subprime crisis

INVESTORS in Centro Properties Group, the country's second- biggest owner of shopping centres, are bracing for an earnings downgrade of more than 10% caused by a large debt bill and exposure to the US subprime mortgage meltdown.

Yesterday morning, the directors, led by Andrew Scott, requested a trading halt, saying they would soon make an announcement "regarding revised earnings guidance as a result of likely increased interest margins on some loan facilities, the terms of which are currently under negotiation".

Property trust analysts have interpreted that as a possible slashing of earnings and a potential share price plunge. The stock was trading at $6.05 before the halt was requested and analysts predicted it could fall lower than $5 when trading resumes.

http://business.theage.com.au/centro-feels...71213-1gya.html

There is no doubt that scottrade data breaks down for me in fast markets.
I noticed something new this morning.

My iBook announces the hourly chime, which syncs accurately with television cuts to programming.

So I happened to look at the scottrade streamer to see if they kept the same time. I'm talking about the clock in the top righthand corner of the basic interface right.

It indicates just a few seconds before 10am... about 09:59:55.

It abruptly rolls to several seconds past 10am. This doesn't surprise me, because I've seen their data feeds on prices sort of "catch up" before, as if it's processing through about 10 seconds of data through a 1 second time frame.

Then, it does the weird thing.

The clock rolls back to indicate a time before 10am... 09:59:56. Scottrade went back in time! I watched the clock for about a minute, and it was bouncing around erratically - sort of like a drunk playing hopscotch.

Not encouraging.

it seems more and more people are saying the same thing.

If we are going to have a recession, lets bring it on and get it over with.

from todays DR.


But what America – and the world – needs is not a boom, but a correction.

So, Feds – wherever you are – listen up: While a central bank clearly has the ability to trigger a recession, it may not have the ability to stop one. Like a hitman, a central banker can always kill a boom; but he can’t necessarily bring his victim back from the dead.

You’re better off pulling the trigger on a boom that needs to die...rather than pretending to heal the poor thing with your voodoo medicine. At least, you’ll look as though you know what you are doing. More tomorrow.

Cubist (CBST) is my best long idea on the horizon. They make cubicin, the only FDA approved drug for treatment of penicillin-resistant staph infections (aka. superbugs). EPS growth has ranged from 140-367% over the past 6 qtrs; sales growth has ranged from 45-69% over the past 8 qtrs; ROE is a beefy 56%. And yet, with a p/e of 23, the stock price has been in the parking lot for 2 yrs. DYODD. (I don't own it now; been stopped out once already )

Looks like the yield on the 10 year note is at 4.20 according to the Bloomberg website. You see that Doc?

That's really funny! 3 days after he lead a march on Wall St. to protest the subprime debacle, his finances get audited!
I think in the south they call that "a back-handed beeyoch smack-down"

http://www.observer.com/2007/wall-street-f...you-cant-afford

Today was the bears best chance for a crash, IMO, before 2008. The bulls stick saved it. As volume lightens up in the coming weeks, I could see a 5% dip and ramp - or vice versa - to close out the year. Maybe a decent volume day tommorow and next Monday and Tuesday. A year end close at 1492 - 1500 is in the cards.

All cash now. Got my Bad Santa hat on and headed to Victoria's Secret. Put my trading profits to good use.

OH NO!!!

Greater returns usually ends up costing someone a lotta money...

California Pension May Move $29 Billion Out of Stocks and Bonds

By Michael B. Marois

Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The California Public Employees' Retirement System, the largest U.S. public pension, may shift as much as $29 billion out of stocks and bonds and into private equity, real estate, commodities and other investments as it seeks to broaden its holdings.

The fund's board will consider a plan on Dec. 17 to cut its bond positions to less than one-fifth of its $260.7 billion of assets and pare back its stock allocation by 4 percentage points to the lowest in 13 years, according to a meeting agenda posted on the retirement system's Web site.

The proposed shifts are part of a plan to change how the fund, known as Calpers, parcels out its money amid pressure from local governments that contribute to the retirement system to generate greater returns. The strategy helped Calpers post returns of 19.1 percent during the 12 months ended June 30, its best gain in a decade and more than the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's 17.4 increase during that period.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...HC90&refer=home

I wonder how many people are under water on their house price now ? It's little wonder house prices aren't falling, there must be lots of people who cannot afford to sell for less than the bubble price...




nytimes.com

I don't see 19% next year unless the don't have to mark-to-market. A lot of sub-primes swimming in the water.

But $260B can talk real loudly. Bet they get some kind of break ...

Briarberry,

It used to be called 'Negative equity'...you don't hear that term used much...YET!!!!

Calpers has been strong into West Coast RE the past 5 years, found them up in Oregon this summer holding 600 acres of pinot grapes that they plan to subdivide into estate wineries, not sure how that will go but they are the largest wine grape grower in Or, I imagine they are into many non stock investments that get little or no attention from the media.

I'm expecting a GMTFO signal during the next week...

[attachmentid=93763]

Bung,

Your calls have been pretty darn good in recent months.

Kudos to you..

Thanx for the reply, Jimi...

Knowing that you're having problems too is comforting, I was worried that I was doing something wrong.

I watch CNBS, via Comcast cable, during the trading day, and have noticed a few seconds lag on the TV programming (ie. the computer clock is ahead a few).

I've been basically satisfied with Scottrade's on-line service during typical market activity, but having everything freeze (where I can't even place an order) during a market panic really pisses me off.

I have to cut power and re-start my computer and then re-log onto the Scottrade site.

Very expensive seconds when the markets are moving...

I'm ready to move my account if another broker has better server capacity.

If you don't mind, I'll give you a shout when I'm having trouble to see if you're having same.

CITI TO CONSOLIDATE SIV's

I had to dong it for this to happen.

Citigroup to Consolidate Assets of Seven SIVs on Balance Sheet

By Emma Moody
Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the largest manager
of structured investment vehicles, said it will consolidate its
seven SIVs onto its balance sheet.
``After considering a full range of funding options, this
commitment is the best outcome for Citi and the SIVs,'' Chief
Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said in an e-mailed statement
today.

Doesn't this seem inevitable for a lot of the off-balance sheet crap the banks were engineering?

Take that ABU DHABI

They had been banging the table saying they didn't have to do this. So I guess "after considering a full range of options" means "we ran out of options and got stuck with the worst one"

Laughter Hours crowd doesn't know how to interpret this.

As if I did.

Definitely, fire away if you see some goofyness. I'm also on comcast, and have noticed some failed chrono-syncs among my iBook, the Scottrade & the television.

I know from a telecom analyst pal that the cable boxes have a cache functionality that can cause different homes to get the same programming at slightly different delays. I've seen this in action: there's a guy who has a HUGE widescreen about 150 yards in a window I naturally see when I'm watching TV. When we're both watching MNF, I see the action about 5 seconds before he does.

Now, if only I could collateralize my advance knowledge of play outcomes....

and right on cue!

UBS hit with shareholder lawsuit over subprime

a shareholder sued UBS, contending the Swiss bank misled investors about write-downs related to securities linked to U.S. subprime mortgages.

William Wesner sued the bank and certain individuals, including former Chief Executive Peter Wuffli and former Chief Financial Officer Clive Standish, according to the complaint filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan.

http://business.theage.com.au/ubs-hit-with...71214-1h1e.html

I think it's a disaster.
Participants had been sort of pretending that they'd be able to keep those losses off balance-sheet.

This suggests they won't succeed at that, and in the same way we had rolling confessionals about subprime exposure in the Fall, Citi's gonna be the first among all to consolidate....

Had a Come to Jesus moment today.

Was transferring funds along a chain, and there could be a weak link in the chain. Potentially my credit union.

In this environment, trust no one.

House prices aren't falling? That's news to me. The stats I look at show year to year change of over -5% nationally, up to double that in former bubble markets and economically weak areas.

And the thing is, the stats don't reflect the true extent of the damage because they do not include bulk sales and foreclosures. There are much lower prices ahead as individual properties from these sales come on the market.




I'm surprised to hear this about Scottrade. I have never had a problem with them. Did you call them about it?

A little earlier in this thread someone posted a deliberately misleading and slanderous lie about a public figure by changing the name of the person in the headline.

I found that absolutely disgusting. I don't care who it is. We don't do that kind of thing on this website. I suggest to the person who did it that he consider not doing things like this in the future. It's not right and it's not ok with me.

I sincerely apologize to anyone who saw the post.

You know, I haven't, because my trading account with them is mainly for-amusement porpoises.

"Flipper" was a for-amusement porpoise.



I also noticed the problem on my iBook which, if general computer speed & responsiveness is any indication, is otherwise in desperate need of a reformat/reinstall. So, to be fair to Scottrade, I should really make sure it's their problem, not my hardware's.

I also enter limit trades to exit new positions as soon as I open them, just in case my ISP goes down, or I can't get access to Scotttrade during volatile periods, or I'm otherwise detained.

Otherwise, I'd describe myself as a satisfied customer.

Right at multiple time frame resistance...

I'd give it one more day before you throw in the towel...if they can't take it down hard tomorrow, then I think you're prolly right.....

Australia and China may give some clues tonight...

OZ getting beaten with a lead pipe.....

We were only down a couple of points and I leave for an hour and we are down 68.

Someone must have read my bearish rants...

Congress working on a law that will allow bankruptcy judges reset home prices.


Contracts won't matter anymore if this is passed.

No more sticky prices, Judge Judy to decide what's a fair price for the stucco home on the coast. Overpriced neighborhoods may not have to wait years for prices to come down to reality! just a bang of the gavel and affordability has arrived...

I 2nd that, only been with them one month, but you have to admit its been a great month to test a system...not one problem

here is the downside of the property boom.

Rentals and mortgages are thru the roof.

Most working folks are being priced out of society.

This is rapidly developing into one hell of a major problem.

This is unheard of in OZ.

Homeless Coast families forced to live in cars

Homelessness on the Sunshine Coast has reached crisis point, with hundreds of families forced to live in their cars because they cannot find affordable accommodation.


http://www.thedaily.com.au/news/2007/dec/1...rced-live-cars/

Lots of reindeer games AH. Globex gunners ran the MAR ES stops up to 1505.25 on the "good news" from C. Trading with tight stops over the holidays is definitely a no-no.

I don't agree that today was the best chance for a crash. Not even close. In fact the opposite. Almost no chance. Markets typically do not crash when 13 week cycle indicators are in an up phase. Won't say it can't happen, but probability of it happening before the 13 week cycle rolls over is effectively nil.

The chances of a crash are never very high, but there are periods which are cyclically more conducive to the possibility of a crash developing. Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition, and know exactly when the next, higher probability crash window is. Click the link below to get in RIGHT NOW!

The beating down under continues...just took out the 12/4 swing low

the death of the consumer has apparently been greatly exaggerated...

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipS...DZtKA1of1gU.asf

Hooray for the 12/4 swing low!!
We wish it & all the other swing lows ill!!

The equity beatings will continue until the credit realities are acknowledged.
-- THE MANAGEMENT

Greenspam says we're "getting close to stall speed" and "odds rising for a Recession."

Can you imagine greeny being an Honest Abe or just being forced to admit the obvious.

dont forget he works for PimpCo