The weakend thread for all!

Mortgage industry needs to cut jobs by a third in 2008 -- analyst
December 14, 2007: 01:30 PM EST

SAN FRANCISCO, Dec. 14, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- The mortgage industry will continue to feel the impact of the deflationary housing market and rising credit costs and needs to shed a third of its roughly 400,000 jobs in the next year if it is to generate a profit, an analyst said Friday.

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. Research Analyst Paul J. Miller lowered his 2008 mortgage origination forecast to around $1.8 trillion from $2.2 trillion, citing the ongoing tightening of credit guidelines in the industry.

'Bottom line, too many loan brokers are chasing too few loans!' he said in a research note. 'Until the mortgage industry eliminates back-office personnel and loan officers, which could take several quarters, we believe the mortgage industry will not generate an economic profit.'

That estimate may be too low!

Kwave, do you think we'll make it back to $120 on SRS?

why risk your money in naSSty financial stocks?

just relax and baSSk in the glow of solar energy stocks

This appears to be a massive two year H$S formation on the IYR, so if it breaks SRS should blast off.

The latest from Herb Greenberg. The bottom is not in.

Extrapolating Downey to WaMu, others
8:49:39 AM December 14th, 2007

Permalink | Comments (29)
Last time I did an extrapolation like this, taking a charge at Wells Fargo and applying it to what might happen at Washington Mutual, I faced a near-mutiny among readers, especially those who thought WaMu had bottomed. Now that Washington Mutual has confirmed the data, let’s do this little exercise again, this time extrapolating what Downey Financial disclosed today to WaMu and others.

First, what Downey said: That non-performing loans (mostly among its loans held for investment) increased by $105.4 million, or 27% from a month earlier. That’s up from a 20% increase the month before and more than 15% the month before that. Most of these are Option ARMs.

Now, the extrapolation: If Downey is boosting non-performing loans (mostly Option ARMs) by such a large amount, on a rapidly rising rate of increase — and if Downey was considered among the best underwriters — other lenders with high Option Arm exposure become vulnerable. At WaMu, for example, 27% (the biggest chunk behind home-equity lines) of loans held for investment were Option ARMs. Other big Option ARM lenders include Wachovia Bank, FirstFed Financial, BankUnited Financial and Guaranty Financial Group, which is being spun off from Temple-Inland. (It’s unclear whether the recent rise in WaMu’s expected loan losses for next year, to as much as nearly $8 billion, includes an l increase in non-performing loans, relatively speaking, that Downey has disclosed.)

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/greenberg/200...to-wamu-others/

I posted this on IDS. How tough is it to make big bucks,when you peddle fraudulent paper to your customers and then turn around and short this TP?
How dumb are your customers, and how long do it take them to figure out that they are going to get skinned when they do business with GS?





A Team's Bearish Bets
Netted Firm Billions;
A Nudge From the CFO
By KATE KELLY
December 14, 2007; Page A1

The subprime-mortgage crisis has been a financial catastrophe for much of Wall Street. At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., thanks to a tiny group of traders, it has generated one of the biggest windfalls the securities industry has seen in years.

The group's big bet that securities backed by risky home loans would fall in value generated nearly $4 billion of profits during the year ended Nov. 30, according to people familiar with the firm's finances. Those gains erased $1.5 billion to $2 billion of mortgage-related losses elsewhere in the firm. On Tuesday, despite a terrible November and some of the worst market conditions in decades, analysts expect Goldman to report record net annual income of more than $11 billion.


Goldman's trading home run was blasted from an obscure corner of the firm's mortgage department -- the structured-products trading group, which now numbers about 16 traders. Two of them, Michael Swenson, 40 years old, and Josh Birnbaum, 35, pushed Goldman to wager that the subprime market was heading for trouble. Their boss, mortgage-department head Dan Sparks, 40, backed them up during heated debates about how much money the firm should risk. This year, the three men are expected to be paid between $5 million and $15 million apiece, people familiar with the matter say.

Under Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman has stood out on Wall Street for its penchant for rolling the dice with its own money. The upside of that approach was obvious in the third quarter: Despite credit-market turmoil, Goldman earned $2.9 billion, its second-best three-month period ever. Mr. Blankfein is set to be paid close to $70 million this year, according to one person familiar with the matter.

Goldman's success at wringing profits out of the subprime fiasco, however, raises questions about how the firm balances its responsibilities to its shareholders and to its clients. Goldman's mortgage department underwrote collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, complex securities created from pools of subprime mortgages and other debt. When those securities plunged in value this year, Goldman's customers suffered major losses, as did units within Goldman itself, thanks to their CDO holdings. The question now being raised: Why did Goldman continue to peddle CDOs to customers early this year while its own traders were betting that CDO values would fall? A spokesman for Goldman Sachs declined to comment on the issue.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1197597140...nonsub_page_one

vicissitudinous

i.e., them's da breaks!

git out, git over it, moooooooooooooooooooove on

Haven't seen Drano in a while...Hope he is OK...

[attachmentid=93795]

The buy/sell signals I monitor I starting to yell like shorty...GIT OUT....but that dang put/call ratio hasn't yet triggered a short yet....whattodohere...

On another front....I think I'll have my ex-mortgage broker over for a barbeque.....

[attachmentid=93796]

Never mess with the apex predator.

buy and hold

patience......

CONventional wisdumb frantically proclaims that Ethanol is dead.

I disagree, and I see real opportunity here.

By the way, if the facts were as claimed by detractors, they wouldn't have to aSSert them so loudly.

The truth is, they're simply wrong.

And the marketplace will prove them so.

Thank you in advance to anyone who keeps shorting this stock.

"Fuel cells? Nah, that'll never work and even if it did it's too expensive and it will never be a mass market and they'll never make a profit and blah blah blah....."

straw hats on sale now!

What I don't understand is why all the big boys weren't doing this as a hedge. It's pretty silly to be outraged by this since trading against their customers is the founding principal of The Street. It's almost painfull to view the naivety in questions about "responsibilities" to its clients. It's buyer beware sucker. Sheesh.

I'll grant that some clients are treated better than others. Let's say your a Senator or a CEO. Your likely to be treated pretty well. On the other hand your a state agency or a foreign bank. Haahhaahaa.

Amass $500 million and you too can be Treasury Secretary.

A certain presidential candidate with a pimped-out blimp was on Mad Money with Creamer tonight. Discussion centered on investigating or eliminating the Fed.

The Fed is not the real problem.

The real problem is the incomprehenisvely massive debt of the USA, both individual debt and government debt.

The Fed is just the clown juggling all the balls in the center ring of the American Debtor's Mad Max Circus.

To solve the real problem, the USA needs to quit being a debtor nation and start adding to the world's wealth rather than destroying it.

California is headed into the crapper faster than expected. The state's finances must really be stretched tight with no margin for error. The "public servants" screwed up anyways. The $10 billion shortfall grew to $14 billion in about a month. I'll bet it gets even larger soon. How do you miss revenues by $10-20 billion?

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said Friday he will declare a "fiscal emergency" in January to give him and the Legislature more power to deal with the state's growing deficit.

Schwarzenegger made the announcement Friday after meeting with lawmakers and interest groups this week to tell them California's budget deficit is worse -- far worse -- than economists predicted just a few weeks ago.

The shortfall is not $10 billion, but more than $14 billion -- a 40 percent jump that would put it in orbit with some of the state's worst fiscal crisis, those who have met with him said.

source


What is worse for the state is that they've been using screwy wall street accounting for the last 3 budget cycles and selling bonds to cover the shortfalls (which by law is not legal, but they don't care). Now it is blowing up in their faces.

You think the FED had nothing to do with that debt accumulation?

Or to ask another way...would we have all this debt without the FED to facilitate it?

Interesting day. Wish I could run my charts, but alas...

I'll be checking in from time to time. Keep up the stellar work!

Hasty Bananas!

Alc, I think you better stick with the Humboldt or British Columbia variety of pot. That Australian strain is clearly affecting your thinking.

This is no chicken-or-egg dilemma here.

I'll discuss the public debt first...............

Debt is a result of fiscal policy, not monetary policy.

The Republicrats control fiscal policy, not the Fed.

Ultimately, the Republicrats do what the American voter wants.

And the American voter (of which I am one, by the way) wants to consume now and pay later, or preferrably never.

The Republicrats have cooperated with each other to run the government on debt for decades, to keep the American voter happy.

The Republicrats have been spending money that they don't have in one giant pork-barrel scheme.

The Treasury issues the paper that keeps the pork barrel full, not the Fed.

The Fed wouldn't have to print money if there was no Treasury paper.

It's easy to blame the Fed, because they end up having to execute the net result of fiscal policy, even though they do not control it.

So, in my opinion, all that the Fed had to do with that massive debt accumulation by the American people was to make sure that there were enough American dollars/dollar credits in the World so that the foreigners could buy all that Treasury paper.

That is a real problem. I am afraid it will not come about except under duress.

(never mind).

On the private debt..........

The Republicrats, through banking regulations and tax and other laws, control what makes sense economically to individuals and companies, not the Fed.

For example, home owners in the USA are allowed to deduct mortgage interest expenses against income when doing their USA Federal taxes (with some restrictions.)

Therefore, the more interest you pay on your home loan, the less you pay in taxes.

That is fiscal policy, not monetary policy.

And, that fiscal policy helped drive the liar-loan/sub-prime fiasco.

The Banks were allowed to hide the liar-loan/sub-prime mess for a while through off balance sheet entities, near criminal collusion with rating agencies and other assorted smoke and mirror tricks.

But that was a result of fiscal policy (ie banking, lending, taxation and reporting regulations) not monetary policy.

Personal credit card debt in the USA?

Is that the result of Fed monetary policy, or is that the result of banking regulations?

I can agree with the concept that monetary and fiscal policies worked hand-in-hand to produce the current credit mega-bubble.

I disagree with you on two points. First, regulation of the subprime fiasco was entrusted to the Fed, who under Darwinist Alan Greenspan, chose not to regulate the banks. That may not be monetary policy, but you can still blame the Fed for refusing to regulate the banks.

Second, the fundamental issue is about pricing money. Pricing money ultimately influences individual decisions to save or consume. When you under-price money through the manipulation of interest rates, you distort people's decisions to take on excessive debt and not save. Regardless of 10 year Treasury yields or LIBOR, most banks price their savings rates they pay to consumers based on the fed funds rate.

Fiscal policy influences, but ultimately doesn't determine the price of money. In a truly free market with no Fed intervention, there would be no endless fiscal policy expansion because interest rates would have jacked up sooner and choked off everybody, and influenced people to save over consuming or borrowing/investing.

Some may say the 10 year Treasury yield is driven by "market forces." It hasn't seemed that way this decade as FCBs played their shell game of interest rate and exchange rate coordination.

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and, in re Debt, and just Who is Responsible, is a topic that is very Dear to the Heart of your jickiss,

for sure.

to understand debt, think of the Long Wave, Con-drott-tea-av.

If the last peak in Debt was 1929, then where or when is the next
debt Peak?

once you have the correct answer, you shall be able to make Huge Coin.

First of all, as Mr. George Ure (http://www.urbansurvival.com) has proven, 1987 was not the peak of the Long Wave Cycle in which we are living. Sure, there was a big hit to Equities in the 1987 crash, but the debt expansion just kept on rolling stoned, as it were.

The Key Concept is to Recognize when Debt, as a total amount in US Dollars, actually stops growing. Interest rates, especially on the 10 to 30 year part of the curve really matter, for lower rates tend to increase the value of most collateral. Suppose that you own a 10 year Zombie. Well, at 6% yield to maturity it has one market value. The very same instrument has a different and much higher market value when the yield is 3%. This is the increase in collateral Value that enables more debt to be floated safely, when the system is in an interest rate decline period like the one that we have had since around 1980 in the US.

For many years, the Wise Guys said that a dollar created will not be Destroyed....the idea was that if some bank lends your jickiss, lets say, $100,000 and your jickiss spends it, but fails to repay, it really does not matter, for the money will be in the accounts of X,Y,Z, A, B etc. As long as Velocity stays stable, and as long as the collateral values stay stable, the idea that a dollar created can endure seems to be a sound idea.

(This is "the Force" behind the Famous Buddha Idea that, "So Far, Nothing Has Happened.")

Now, however, Enter the Dragons of Derivatives that have to date Hidden the disappearence of "Money" Instruments.....It has been said here, and in other places, that a lot of the funny paper is really worth only 3 cents or 10 cents on the dollar, but for sure is not now worth 90 cents or 100 cents.

Something is Finally Happening.

Run this movie backwards for a few more months, and the Average Financed House which has a Value today of 100 and Mortgage Debt of 50 will be moved to a position where the Value will be 50 or less and then there is going to be a Very Nasty Situation wherein it will enter what is left of the Brains of da Sheeple that it will not make sense to keep paying the mortgage.


Then What?


Well, as Doc said, when the value of collateral drops, then liquidations start...of all assets....your jickiss says that since da Sheeple have really -0- Gold and Silver, Gold and Silver will not be liquidated. Cars are dropping already, and who wants to buy more, as most households have 2 or more. Houses will be Very Difficult to Sell, and da Sheeple will just Park at Home, for who is going to force millions of mad sheeple to move out, anyway? Stocks spring to mind, Don't They??????????

your jickiss repeats,

Only a Moran would not be genuinely Afraid of the current situation in the Asset Markets and in the Financial Asset Market specifically in the United States tonight.

Reason with your jickiss one final step, please; namely, as long as Any Person thinks that the Future Value of any item will be greater than the interest carry on the outstanding, they will finance, finance and finance like mad. In this world, there is never a curtail, debt is good, and the more, the better, it is thought. This has been going on from mid 1990s to 2005-6 in RE in the USA, (and in other places, too.) One and all thought that the Future Value would be greater than the present value extended into the future at some rate of interest. Marginal untility and all that feelings stuff entered the Game interms of cars (toys) trips (fun trips) and goodies in general, which only were bought as items that increased, at the margin, the personal happiness feelings that sprung from expected increases in RE and, of course, stocks, as well.

NOW, the Descent into the Dropping Velocity Dark Pit of "hold on to my cash because I will need it to buy stuff in the future to stop form starving" idea approaches. oooo, what is that about???? Survival, bay-bee.

yup, does any here dare to look outside of the house into the Darkness Tonight?
don't go out, however, there is a Dragon outside. a hungry mean and terrible creature. it can not be fought. one and all will do everything they can to hide from this creature. When one and all Hide, they will stop spending.

Thimk!

jickiss!

In the end, only the Gold and Silver and Miners and Miners Related Longs,
and
the Broads Shorts can win this game.

It happened 1929 to 1933-38
It will happen again. No body, no group, no combination of Central Banks, No Inner or Hidden Agreements, no military, no media, no Above, and no Below

can stop now the forces that will make "what they said was money" disappear.

It disappears when Everyman hides from the Dragon,
In economic terms, it means that the velocity of money is going toward -0-
In Plain English it spells Big Trouble, as in Disaster Ahead.


waaaa, waaaaa, waaaaaaaaaaaaa..................

LAW OF THE FALL STREET JUNGLE



When game is scarce in this finanical winter the fall street pack will turn on its weakest members and devour them.

They have to feed on something



YES - ITS THE SILENCE OF THE WOLVES

Point 1-Won't argue with you cause I'm not familiar with what you are referring to. But let me say that the thought of the Federal Reseve Bank have regulatory responsibility for any significant part of the banking system is downright scary to me. If Greenspan said "No", then good on him.

Point 2-Suppose there were no 10 Year Treasuries because the US Government had no debt? That's really my point. The problem isn't the Fed, per se. The Fed's power is enhanced by that there IS debt that has to be dealt with. If there wasn't US government paper, THERE WOULD BE NO SHELL GAME.

That's the point about Fiscal vs Monetary policy.

Fiscal policy allows for the game. The Fed is just the dealer. If there was no debt, that shell game wouldn't exist.

Well said, I too believe that we are facing very hard times,but it is certainly not the first time. My greatgrand parents lived with their children, my grand parents. I know the greatgrand parents has little money as they were small farmers whose land passed to the children in the old way, but as a child I knew nothing of it and never discussed it with my parents unfortunately.
One hundred years ago most people in this country were poor and may be so again.

The analysis certainly gets more complicated when you factor foreign savings funding U.S. debt in exchange for holding the reserve currency. How much of that is real savings? How much of that is counterfeited through FCB intervention?

I can't argue with the second counterpoint. Both sets of criminals need the other.

Ok, so, let's get rid of the Fed

Then, who/what is going to be in charge of monetary policy?

Who is going to decide if more money needs to be printed, when it needs to be printed and how much to print?

Some faceless bureaucratic committee at the US Treasury? (No way the Republicrats would allow that, IMO.)

How about all those nice bankers on Wall Street? Sure let's give them the keys to the printing press.

So, that leaves either the Congress or the President, ie the Republicrats of the day.

Anybody actually like the idea of the Republicrats of the day being directly in charge of both monetary and fiscal policy?

Just about every monetary system has its advantages and disadvantages. Commodity money could also lead to inflation, but never to the degree that fiat money does.

The boom-bust phenomenon is not associated exclusively with fiat money, but fiat money does magnify the maximum size of the potential bust.

If you don't want boom-bust cycles, you have to get rid of fractional reserve banking. If you got rid of fractional reserve banking, your economy would be hostage to slow growth because there would never be enough money to supply real legitimate growth.

The problem with the Federal Reserve is that it is ultimately beholden to the interests of the government, Wall Street, and the bankers. So, the current system is no better than Congress, JP Morgan, or some other oligopolists controlling money. Doc may disagree, but how many bailouts have we seen during the BenSpan era?

Central banking came about from the need to fund government debt in an efficient manner, as well as to be the lender of last resort in financial crises. The problem with fiat money is that it transfers purchasing power away from savers and to the government and the financial elite.

I don't care about whether there is a Federal Reserve, as long as it doesn't steal money from one set of people to give to another.

well it had to stop sometime in SoCal, why not at 500K

we started with mini-stucco crapboxes that can be slapped together for about 50K each

not McMansions with slab granite and expensive landscaping, just typical 3BR/1.5B 1100 sq ft crapboxes with the standard gravel front lawn and concrete back lawn

why would someone pay 100K? well, gotta squat 'N' fart somewhere, and it always goes up, so as long as they'll loan me the money what the hell

why 150K? well, look, Joe's up 50K on his, I better get in the game

and so on, until millions of 50K stucco crapboxes are trading hands at 500K, which is still being financed with 100% loans, then cash-out refi'd at 125%

of course nobody really wants to pay 500K for a 50K stucco crapbox, especially one that's located on a 5,000 sq ft lot on a crappy little street full of identical crapboxes and no fresh air

but it's a Guaranteed Easy Way to make big money, ya gotta be in it ta win it, gotta be in the game

and it's not 500K of hard-earned savings, it's all borrowed money, OPM

when the game ends for whatever reason, and the 500K crapboxes cannot be sold for 550K, or even 350K all hell breaks loose

those that can walk away, walk away

others try to weasle out with a short sale, and beg the gov't to forgive their tax obligation

others get foreclosed on and trash their places, ripping out the fixtures, doors, windows, plumbing, wiring, etc.

some burn 'em down and try to pocket the insurance money, especially if they have a friend in the insurance business, they can pocket 90% of it, kick back 10% and not get investigated

millions scream for the gov't to force their taxpyaing neighbors to bail them out

less than 1% voluntarily reduce their standard of living, work three jobs, and try to actually honor their obligations honestly

in any event, it's still just a 50K stucco crapbox, and anybody who paid 500K for it got screwed out of 450K

somebody has to make up the difference

somebody has to take that loss

all the whining and moaning and angling and fighting is simply about who's gonna pay

Think somebody here made the observation about lower rates=bear market earlier this week. (Was it Doc?)

Thought the commentary below was interesting. Guy doesn't discuss "normal" vs "inverted" yield curve eras, which is also relevant to this subject, but still an interesting piece.

Lower Interest Rates = Lower Stock Market - The Double Failure of the So-Called Fed Model

Link

Reader's digest version-What the Fed does with interest rates has little impact on stock market pricing.

I think 10 million vacant houses, that is, 10 million unwanted tax and maintenance and Debt negative cashflow liabilities, is an understatement

easily another 10 million could be vacated by people moving in with parents or other relatives John-Boy Walton style like was done in the last Depression

and another 5 million by people moving back to apartments, doubling and tripling up with roommates

so I'd guess we got about 25 million Beanie Baby obligations that nobody wants to aSSume

and nobody can afford to aSSume

it's checkmate, game over for the middle claSS

the top 1% have won

the middle claSS is trapped hopelessly in Debt with their wages (if they're still lucky enough to have any) being pounded down to 3rd-world levels while their basic costs of living skyrocket

that's why fraud is exploding, it's impossible for most people to survive, in the style they feel entitled to, by just working a job

their last great hope was RE, and now that's dead

they have no hope now, except to dramatically reduce their living standards to what they can truly afford without borrowing, by working in competition with 3rd-world labor pools, which means 3rd-world living standards

few will accept this historic slapdown gracefully

that's why you see so much anger around in your daily interactions, in case you haven't noticed

it's slowly dawning on the general populace that they're royally screwed and there's nothing they can do about it

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


the fed will be made to disappear for the reason that so much of usa Debt is held in the hands of those Offshore that they will revolt.

this will lead to a partial gold cover for the us dollar, which Sinclair has term the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio.

your jickiss can not Stress Enough the Idea that most Debt, and to a greater and greater degree every year since the gold window was shut by Nixon and the dollar became totally fiat,

the Idea that debt is to be rolled (re-fied) and Never Paid Off has taken hold for them with Brains know that the longer you wait, the cheaper it is to pay off.

GET IT???

Back in the 60s, for instance, you could buy shares in Corporations that had essentially -0- long term debt.

Who has a list of such firms today???

Other than MSFT and GOOG, who are these firms???

MSFT and GOOD and DELL for instance (CSCO) have been conduits to pay cash to the Founders, Without paying Cash to the Shareholders, who have been trained by O'neil to want to own Mo-Mo not dividend paying entiites, yeah, your jickiss knows all about the Tax Code and double taxation of dividends, etc, but the Whole Point is that

Please Write this next part down and Thimk,
Please,

Since the gold window shut, the Smartest have done nothing But take Cash out of the Key Corporations as insiders, whilst da Sheeple have played the Gambler Spec Capital Gains William O'Neil Mo Mo game. BY THIS NIGHT, DECEMBER 14, 2007, ALL OF THE KEY INSIDERS HAVE GOTTEN ALL OF THEIR MONEY OUT OF THE CORPORATIONS THAT COMPRISE THE EQUITY MARKETS AND THEY DO NOT CARE ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT, EXCEPT TO PLACE MONEY SHORT, AND TO OWN GOLD AND SILVER.

DA BOYZ AND THE KEY INSIDERS ARE LONG GOLD AND ARE BUYING ALL THEY CAN UNDER THE COVER OF THE SPREAD TRADE, LONG THE METAL SHORT AND SHORTING THE MINERS, TO STEAL THE GREATEST NUMBER OF SHARES FROM THE HOPEFULL SHEEPLE.

think, yourselves, about Velocity. here is how: How long now do properties Sit For Sale in your hoods??? (means velocity is dropping....)

How long do nice almost new used cars sit on lots near your hoods without selling?? (means velocity if dropping....)

How deeply must merchandise (non-food, that is) be discounted before it leaves the Stores in your hood? (means velocity is dropping....)

Go out at Midnight and listen to the Taffic Noise level in you hood and see if it is lower than you recall from a year or two ago. (a Real Sign that velocity is dropping)


Velocity

When veolcity drops to zero
You'll have to fight to be a hero

Nasty men will steal with Pleasure
All the things you've come to treasure

When the money quits its running
Mobs appear and they'll be gunning

For the men that caused such woe
To string them up, this will be so

Thimk!
jickiss!!!!!!!

if only people had invested all that that Ditech money, and their time, in learning world-class skills and purchasing their own tools, means of production, and survival necessities

(and sold out of their Beanie Babies at the top)

instead of squandering all the borrowed money, and their time, on hookers and booze and SUV's and $1,000 Ladainian Tomlinson Official GameDay GameWear LookAtMeBaby Genuine Pro NFL Jerseys, and tummy tucks and wax jobs and teeth whitening and breast augmentation and nose jobs

(and being trapped in their Beanie Babies on the way down)

oh well, too late now

LIGHTS OUT, MORANS!

QCOM

millions of people will flee that grossly overpopulated and bankrupt socialist state rather than stick around to get stuck with the bills

if these agents can't make money now,god help them when the shite hits the fan in OZ.

All flash but little cash for agents

IT IS meant to be all about fast cars, flash suits and a wallet bulging with cash.

But, instead, many of Melbourne's real estate sales agents get paid more poorly than you think, with nearly one in five earning less than $50,000 a year.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/all...7568264945.html

Tax the Googlers before GOOG heads into the toilet.

The real estate seize ups are getting closer and closer to silicon valley. The far out suburbs are already hurting. Now a story in the San Jose Mercury says that foreclosures are coming to east San Jose.

"I love my house," she said. "I'm going to do whatever I can to hold onto it."

Wilfred Perez, a real estate agent and loan officer for Alvarez & Alvarez, said about 50 people came to him for help last month, and he expects three times that many this month. "They don't know where to go," Perez said. "They are afraid to call the lender, or they say no one answers, or nobody there speaks Spanish and they just put you on hold."

Perez himself lost the house he bought for $650,000 in 2005 - "at the top of the market." The value of the property dropped $100,000 when it was foreclosed on and put up for auction, he said. "How do you think the neighbors feel?"

"People don't want to lose their homes," added Robert Aldana, a real estate agent who has a Spanish-language radio show on real estate. "They are saying, 'Help us,' but lenders are not helping."
Basic financial analysis would have told them they could not afford it.


cfo.com is reporting more and more people are using their 401k money to ay their mortgages. Destruction of money. They'll never be able to repay their 401k money and they might still lose the house or at least lose alot of money on it.

from the article:

'Take the house'

Girlie Bass, a registered nurse whose husband drives for the Valley Transportation Authority, is trying to get her lender to take back the "fixer-upper" on Aetna Way in San Jose she bought for a borrowed $615,000 in 2004. "I just want them to release me from the mortgage. Take the house. I don't care if I get a dime out of it," said Bass, who is 61. She said her loan payment is now $6,497 a month, far outstripping her and her husband's ability to pay.

Neighborhood Housing Services Silicon Valley says it is getting an average of seven requests for help a day from homeowners worried about making their mortgage payments or losing their homes. These are largely Spanish-only speakers with an average loan balance of $475,000 to $575,000 typically earning an average of $3,300 or less a month per household, according to Marlene Santiago, the agency's bilingual foreclosure counselor.


I saw some of these homes for sale earlier this year... asking prices from $700k to $850k! We're talking places with aluminum siding and cheap white rocks in the front yard instead of grass or plants. Wishing prices.

Maybe I'll go back out there in the old car and take some pictures in the next few weeks.

Re the Fed: its existence as a private entity has facilitated the massive increase in public debt. This is at the heart of both Jefferson's warning about allowing the creation of money to fall into private hands, as well as Wilson's lament about being "a most unhappy man" and having "unwittingly ruined" his country.

Losses are socialized, profits are privatized. It's just taken 90 years for it to come into full flower, prompting the 'are we Rome?' comparisons after the endless orgy of pork and defense skimming.

The most intriguing idea, mentioned earlier by jickiss and some years ago in parody form by machinehead, is a return to a partially gold-backed system. This would be an absolute bonanza for those well positioned.

<<These are largely Spanish-only speakers with an average loan balance of $475,000 to $575,000 typically earning an average of $3,300 or less a month per household, according to Marlene Santiago, the agency's bilingual foreclosure counselor>>

WTF????...no wonder the Bar is chomping at the bit. The class actions against the lenders and originators are going to be enormous.

Forty grand a year and they are getting leveraged out to 10 to 1? It's nothing but a consumer based derivative...judas priest, in what world were lenders living that they were OK-ing these!?!?!

the chart looks good if it breaks out. buying here when the doubt is greatest is a good time to buy.

To add to what shorty was saying ....

Shorty

I dont need no coal fired heat by my bed

I got somethin' there to keep me mighty red..

Comon, Solar, shake your boogie,

Shake your boogie NOw...

Beardrech :ph34r:From Presidential Report on Alternative Energy

Actually, the most intriguing idea would be for us to actually make things that other people want. This would be a bonanza for everybody, which is why it won't happen. Maybe when we become desperate and our survival instincts kick in things will start to change.

Even with the so-called credit crunch, people still haven't had to change their ways. Twenty-somethings with little or no income are still spending north of $100 a month on their cell phones so that they can text meaningless messages back and forth to each other every 2 or 3 minutes.

My wife says that all the new 20-something hires at the airport can't be without their cell phones for more than 10 minutes. Its a good thing for her as they are so desperate for money that they pick up her shifts often.

We've got a long way to go. When we get there, we are going look back and say, My God, did we squander everything or what. It will all seem so obvious then.