Full Version: No Satisfaction
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Mark To Market - Stock Market Message Board
Bulls cain't git none.
Small error in today's Fed report. The rollover tomorrow is $43.75 billion, not $33.75 billion. I missed an expiring 8 day repo. You know there's a problem when a $10 billion error is small. 
Doc, in answer to your question on IDS...
TED spread is the difference between 3month LIBOR and 3 month t-bills.
What I find astonishing is how after Taffys, fed cuts, half-trillion injections, and what have you not, the spread is STILL above 200 bps, a level not seen since 1987.
TED spread is the difference between 3month LIBOR and 3 month t-bills.
What I find astonishing is how after Taffys, fed cuts, half-trillion injections, and what have you not, the spread is STILL above 200 bps, a level not seen since 1987.
Cornahol!
I'm almost tempted ta say I tol ya so.
Butt that wouldn't be polite.
I'm almost tempted ta say I tol ya so.
Butt that wouldn't be polite.
I tol ya so! 
QUOTE(shorty @ Dec 19 2007, 04:18 PM)
I tol ya so!
Shorty, one thing that has bothered me about this industry is why does it still rely on gov't subsidies?
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 19 2007, 04:12 PM)
That is some piece of work.
Benefits of Taffy seem to be the anonymity factor.
And can you say with absolute certainty that the collateral accepted under Taffy is the same as that under the DW?
Call me cynical, 'cuz I am.
And can you say with absolute certainty that the collateral accepted under Taffy is the same as that under the DW?
Call me cynical, 'cuz I am.
That Bernard seems to enjoy reading 10-Qs & 10-Ks.
This pessimism will spread like the plague..no turning back now.
Americans expecting recession: poll
A growing number of Americans expect a US recession in the next year as the housing slump and steep food and energy prices sour sentiment, a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday shows.
Of the likely voters surveyed, 43.4 per cent said they expect a recession, up from 40 per cent a month earlier. The worsening mood was apparent across nearly every age and ethnic group, and both sides of the political spectrum, pollster John Zogby said.
"The recession mentality has settled in. It's in the bloodstream now," he said. "It's an across-the-board funk."
http://news.theage.com.au/americans-expect...71219-1i4m.html
Americans expecting recession: poll
A growing number of Americans expect a US recession in the next year as the housing slump and steep food and energy prices sour sentiment, a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday shows.
Of the likely voters surveyed, 43.4 per cent said they expect a recession, up from 40 per cent a month earlier. The worsening mood was apparent across nearly every age and ethnic group, and both sides of the political spectrum, pollster John Zogby said.
"The recession mentality has settled in. It's in the bloodstream now," he said. "It's an across-the-board funk."
http://news.theage.com.au/americans-expect...71219-1i4m.html
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 19 2007, 04:12 PM)
great job, thanks,
QUOTE(elh @ Dec 19 2007, 04:39 PM)
That Bernard seems to enjoy reading 10-Qs & 10-Ks.
I am glad he does and shares because I don't.
QUOTE(cwd @ Dec 19 2007, 03:05 PM)
I am glad he does and shares because I don't.
Totally.
Reading bank 10-Q/10-K's are the worst. GSEs can only be many times worse.
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 19 2007, 04:16 PM)
Doc, in answer to your question on IDS...
TED spread is the difference between 3month LIBOR and 3 month t-bills.
TED spread is the difference between 3month LIBOR and 3 month t-bills.
Since t-bills are issued by the Fed, and the Fed will never default, t-bills enjoy status as the "risk free" rate.
Since LIBOR is based on inter-bank lending, there is necessarily a default premium that causes money of similar maturity to trade at a necessary spread to the risk free rate.
This way, the Ted Spread becomes one measure of perceived credit distress within the commercial banking system.
Which Suds' charts show is bumping up on some levels not seen for many, many years....
QUOTE(dogsie @ Dec 19 2007, 02:33 PM)
Shorty, one thing that has bothered me about this industry is why does it still rely on gov't subsidies?
some people claim the crude oil industry also receives unfair gov't aSSistance
of course President Rodham will put an end to that right quick, her first taSSk will be to punish Big Earl
QUOTE(Jimi @ Dec 19 2007, 03:07 PM)
Since t-bills are issued by the Fed, and the Fed will never default, t-bills enjoy status as the "risk free" rate.
That's funny. The Fed will never default, i.e., never fail to pay FRN's upon reamdemption of t-bills, because they can print FRN's fer free!
Whether them FRN's are worth anything is the real risk.
QUOTE(elh @ Dec 19 2007, 04:39 PM)
Benefits of Taffy seem to be the anonymity factor.
And can you say with absolute certainty that the collateral accepted under Taffy is the same as that under the DW?
Call me cynical, 'cuz I am.
And can you say with absolute certainty that the collateral accepted under Taffy is the same as that under the DW?
Call me cynical, 'cuz I am.
Absolute certainty is never an issue in investing or in life. It's about probabilities. The Fed rules say that the collateral is the same as allowed at the Discount Window. That's all that matters. According to the rules, if the collateral becomes insufficient, the borrower must put up more collateral. They can pledge no more than 50% of the collateral, in case there is a problem.
And since no one was using the DW before, what difference does it make?
What's the purpose of even asking the question?
Never for one second, not one iota of a second should anyone ever expect absolute certainty in this business. It's a pipedream. I do the best I can to ascertain the most probable facts and analyze them to ascertain what I consider to be the most likely outcome. That's the best I can do. I have never intimated that any of this implied absolute certainty. Not even close. I always have doubt. Anyone who doesn't is a nutcase.
Not that I'm not a nutcase.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 19 2007, 02:12 PM)
Let's be clear.
Fannie Mae is not a corporate business enterprise in the usual sense.
Their purpose is neither to produce anything of value, nor to earn a profit.
Their purpose is simply to loan Trillions of FRN's to people who are not qualified to pay them back.
To accomplish this, they naturally lie at first, filing false reports and/or no reports, until the lie is so obviously gigantic that it cannot be denied anymore.
Then, the gov't will just give them Trillions more FRN's, to pass out to more folks, who will never pay them back.
And so it goes.
That's all.
this Sally Mae dude got his ...and in the nick of time to boot.
Sallie Mae Posts Record Drop as Lord Lacks Details
Lord sold more than 1.2 million of his own shares on Dec. 14, the company reported last week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206....jdk&refer=home
Sallie Mae Posts Record Drop as Lord Lacks Details
Lord sold more than 1.2 million of his own shares on Dec. 14, the company reported last week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206....jdk&refer=home
This would be hilarious if it weren't so serious. No, actually, it's pretty hilarious.
the action was in SLM, commonly known as Sallie Mae, which fell 21% amid a contentious conference call that began with a long apology from the new CEO, Al Lord, and ended with him freaking out just about everybody. At one point analyst Bill Cavalier of Societe Generale, frustrated with the lack of information, said that “We’re trying to figure out what your stock is going to be worth, and you have got to give us some guidance, you’ve got to give us some numbers.” Mr. Lord suggested calling Steve McGarry in investor relations, and Mr. Cavalier responded, “But you’re the CEO,” but Mr. Lord declined to comment further. At the end of the call, he said to Mr. McGarry, “There’s no questions, let’s get the (expletive) out of here.” Which is exactly what investors did. They don’t call it the silly season for nothing.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/
the action was in SLM, commonly known as Sallie Mae, which fell 21% amid a contentious conference call that began with a long apology from the new CEO, Al Lord, and ended with him freaking out just about everybody. At one point analyst Bill Cavalier of Societe Generale, frustrated with the lack of information, said that “We’re trying to figure out what your stock is going to be worth, and you have got to give us some guidance, you’ve got to give us some numbers.” Mr. Lord suggested calling Steve McGarry in investor relations, and Mr. Cavalier responded, “But you’re the CEO,” but Mr. Lord declined to comment further. At the end of the call, he said to Mr. McGarry, “There’s no questions, let’s get the (expletive) out of here.” Which is exactly what investors did. They don’t call it the silly season for nothing.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 19 2007, 03:22 PM)
Absolute certainty is never an issue in investing or in life. It's about probabilities. The Fed rules say that the collateral is the same as allowed at the Discount Window. That's all that matters. According to the rules, if the collateral becomes insufficient, the borrower must put up more collateral. They can pledge no more than 50% of the collateral, in case there is a problem.
And since no one was using the DW before, what difference does it make?
What's the purpose of even asking the question?
Never for one second, not one iota of a second should anyone ever expect absolute certainty in this business. It's a pipedream. I do the best I can to ascertain the most probable facts and analyze them to ascertain what I consider to be the most likely outcome. That's the best I can do. I have never intimated that any of this implied absolute certainty. Not even close. I always have doubt. Anyone who doesn't is a nutcase.
Not that I'm not a nutcase.
And since no one was using the DW before, what difference does it make?
What's the purpose of even asking the question?
Never for one second, not one iota of a second should anyone ever expect absolute certainty in this business. It's a pipedream. I do the best I can to ascertain the most probable facts and analyze them to ascertain what I consider to be the most likely outcome. That's the best I can do. I have never intimated that any of this implied absolute certainty. Not even close. I always have doubt. Anyone who doesn't is a nutcase.
Not that I'm not a nutcase.
I guess what my paranoia is trying to say is that the Taffy is a chance for them to
1) Conceal the names of banks in deep S*t to avoid runs,
2) Accept garbage collateral without recognizing it.
Mish had a post on Fed collateral citing the same URL you did. It does mention some pretty ugly securities in there.
You did mention that Bernanke effectively offset the Taffy with other drains, so that's a fact no one can dispute.
Look at the UK. They pretty much blew 25 billion pounds on Northern Trust that will never be collected. Since it was created from nothing, no harm done if it just disappeared, right?
It's not unfathomable.
I suspect these guys sense that they *could be* facing extinction if a financial collapse ensues. They will do everything to ensure their survival including resorting to dirty tricks.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 19 2007, 04:12 PM)
Great work.
Today's credit mark-down of ACA from investment "A" to junk is pretty remarkable in this context. The bond insurers are going to blow up, and then all the securities they insure will have to be revalued.
Not good.
i think this should pop
On vacation and making it short and sweet.
We are days away from the golden cross (50 over the 200 dma).
Over the years, stocks/market tend to move back to the location of the cross.
I would not be surprise to see a rally starting late tomorrow to the 500/200 dma.
This latest move sure feels like May-July 2006...
Trade safe.
We are days away from the golden cross (50 over the 200 dma).
Over the years, stocks/market tend to move back to the location of the cross.
I would not be surprise to see a rally starting late tomorrow to the 500/200 dma.
This latest move sure feels like May-July 2006...
Trade safe.
QUOTE(elh @ Dec 19 2007, 03:27 PM)
Look at the UK. They pretty much blew 25 billion pounds on Northern Trust that will never be collected. Since it was created from nothing, no harm done if it just disappeared, right?
right!that's my pernt eggzactly
in our fiat fantasy world, life is just a Doritos commercial
don't worry, we'll print more!
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 19 2007, 05:27 PM)
This would be hilarious if it weren't so serious. No, actually, it's pretty hilarious.
the action was in SLM, commonly known as Sallie Mae, which fell 21% amid a contentious conference call that began with a long apology from the new CEO, Al Lord, and ended with him freaking out just about everybody. At one point analyst Bill Cavalier of Societe Generale, frustrated with the lack of information, said that “We’re trying to figure out what your stock is going to be worth, and you have got to give us some guidance, you’ve got to give us some numbers.” Mr. Lord suggested calling Steve McGarry in investor relations, and Mr. Cavalier responded, “But you’re the CEO,” but Mr. Lord declined to comment further. At the end of the call, he said to Mr. McGarry, “There’s no questions, let’s get the (expletive) out of here.” Which is exactly what investors did. They don’t call it the silly season for nothing.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/
the action was in SLM, commonly known as Sallie Mae, which fell 21% amid a contentious conference call that began with a long apology from the new CEO, Al Lord, and ended with him freaking out just about everybody. At one point analyst Bill Cavalier of Societe Generale, frustrated with the lack of information, said that “We’re trying to figure out what your stock is going to be worth, and you have got to give us some guidance, you’ve got to give us some numbers.” Mr. Lord suggested calling Steve McGarry in investor relations, and Mr. Cavalier responded, “But you’re the CEO,” but Mr. Lord declined to comment further. At the end of the call, he said to Mr. McGarry, “There’s no questions, let’s get the (expletive) out of here.” Which is exactly what investors did. They don’t call it the silly season for nothing.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/
I listened to the version of the call that SLM posted on its website. I didn't hear the expletive.
Then, later, CNBS reported that SLM had edited the version of the call on its website to remove Lord's swearing.
On that call, Lord also referenced getting a margin call toward the end of last week and being sold out of over 1 million shares of SLM he held.
Yeah, if that had happened to me, I'd likely be having a crappy week, too, this week, and would be anxious to get the hell off the phone with analysts as well.....
I think the Lord is going to jail
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Dec 19 2007, 06:29 PM)
On vacation and making it short and sweet.
We are days away from the golden cross (50 over the 200 dma).
Over the years, stocks/market tend to move back to the location of the cross.
I would not be surprise to see a rally starting late tomorrow to the 500/200 dma.
This latest move sure feels like May-July 2006...
Trade safe.
We are days away from the golden cross (50 over the 200 dma).
Over the years, stocks/market tend to move back to the location of the cross.
I would not be surprise to see a rally starting late tomorrow to the 500/200 dma.
This latest move sure feels like May-July 2006...
Trade safe.
i have been trying to think about building positions for the next run. i thought this pull back would be a tad deeper. maybe not this time.
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 19 2007, 05:35 PM)
I think the Lord is going to jail
I read about that happening once in a Dostoyevsky tome:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Grand_Inquisitor
are the US futures down big?
The ords is down a whopping 163 points.
SPI Futures 6,050.00 -163
The ords is down a whopping 163 points.
SPI Futures 6,050.00 -163
Actually, looks like 50-day about to cross under the 200-day; it may be a
matter of interpretation but the 200-day currently looks as though it's
turned flattish, vs maintaining a modest upward bias last spring. 50-day
moving under 200-day, esp. when the 200-day is turning downward, is
typically bearish from a weeks-to-months perspective. Of course, s-t
moves against such a trend can and will occur; otoh, market had every reason
to continue the rally that began 3+ weeks back and-apparantly-ended a little
over a week ago-when market doesn't(or stops) do what it 'should', it's often
a pretty pwerful, if often subtle, message.
Also, it's Northern ROCK, not Trust, that is the (unadmitted) insolvent UK
mortgage lender. There's enough real blemishes on Chicago's reputation!
matter of interpretation but the 200-day currently looks as though it's
turned flattish, vs maintaining a modest upward bias last spring. 50-day
moving under 200-day, esp. when the 200-day is turning downward, is
typically bearish from a weeks-to-months perspective. Of course, s-t
moves against such a trend can and will occur; otoh, market had every reason
to continue the rally that began 3+ weeks back and-apparantly-ended a little
over a week ago-when market doesn't(or stops) do what it 'should', it's often
a pretty pwerful, if often subtle, message.
Also, it's Northern ROCK, not Trust, that is the (unadmitted) insolvent UK
mortgage lender. There's enough real blemishes on Chicago's reputation!
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 19 2007, 05:35 PM)
I think the Lord is going to jail
You crack me up
QUOTE(shorty @ Dec 19 2007, 05:25 PM)
Let's be clear.
Fannie Mae is not a corporate business enterprise in the usual sense.
Their purpose is neither to produce anything of value, nor to earn a profit.
Their purpose is simply to loan Trillions of FRN's to people who are not qualified to pay them back.
To accomplish this, they naturally lie at first, filing false reports and/or no reports, until the lie is so obviously gigantic that it cannot be denied anymore.
Then, the gov't will just give them Trillions more FRN's, to pass out to more folks, who will never pay them back.
And so it goes.
That's all.
Fannie Mae is not a corporate business enterprise in the usual sense.
Their purpose is neither to produce anything of value, nor to earn a profit.
Their purpose is simply to loan Trillions of FRN's to people who are not qualified to pay them back.
To accomplish this, they naturally lie at first, filing false reports and/or no reports, until the lie is so obviously gigantic that it cannot be denied anymore.
Then, the gov't will just give them Trillions more FRN's, to pass out to more folks, who will never pay them back.
And so it goes.
That's all.
Stein's Law, : "Things that can't go on forever, don't."
QUOTE(Jimi @ Dec 19 2007, 05:34 PM)
I listened to the version of the call that SLM posted on its website. I didn't hear the expletive.
Then, later, CNBS reported that SLM had edited the version of the call on its website to remove Lord's swearing.
On that call, Lord also referenced getting a margin call toward the end of last week and being sold out of over 1 million shares of SLM he held.
Yeah, if that had happened to me, I'd likely be having a crappy week, too, this week, and would be anxious to get the hell off the phone with analysts as well.....
Then, later, CNBS reported that SLM had edited the version of the call on its website to remove Lord's swearing.
On that call, Lord also referenced getting a margin call toward the end of last week and being sold out of over 1 million shares of SLM he held.
Yeah, if that had happened to me, I'd likely be having a crappy week, too, this week, and would be anxious to get the hell off the phone with analysts as well.....
Now I feel sorry for the guy.
not.
QUOTE(shorty @ Dec 19 2007, 03:32 PM)
right!
that's my pernt eggzactly
in our fiat fantasy world, life is just a Doritos commercial
don't worry, we'll print more!
that's my pernt eggzactly
in our fiat fantasy world, life is just a Doritos commercial
don't worry, we'll print more!
Exactly. And for all the bitching about taxpayer bailouts, which taxpayers?
The ones fifty years from now paying with an effective rate of 2 pence on the pound. Or will that stuff be defaulted on too.
Life is grand now with the Tony Blair 50 year bonds.
QUOTE(shorty @ Dec 19 2007, 10:32 PM)
right!
that's my pernt eggzactly
in our fiat fantasy world, life is just a Doritos commercial
don't worry, we'll print more!
that's my pernt eggzactly
in our fiat fantasy world, life is just a Doritos commercial
don't worry, we'll print more!
To put it in perspective, the N.Rock bailout (and this is just one bank) will cost approx $3600 per UK taxpayer. This is equivalent to the UK's national education budget.
See ya in weimar Germany.
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Dec 19 2007, 05:29 PM)
On vacation and making it short and sweet.
We are days away from the golden cross (50 over the 200 dma).
Over the years, stocks/market tend to move back to the location of the cross.
We are days away from the golden cross (50 over the 200 dma).
Over the years, stocks/market tend to move back to the location of the cross.
That's just false. Stocks move in the direction of the broad trend (which, by the way is currently transitioning from up to down in a very major way). The golden cross is worthless. Look at the 2000 top.
QUOTE(bondtrader @ Dec 19 2007, 05:38 PM)
i have been trying to think about building positions for the next run. i thought this pull back would be a tad deeper. maybe not this time.
Pullback?
Building positions?
You are so incredibly full of crap it boggles my mind. You wouldn't know a pullback from a major market top if it sat on your face.
Why don't you shut the fornicate up and try to learn something from the people here who do know what they are talking about, you fraud.
I guess we need you to play the moran for comic relief.
Where'd all the peace and love go?
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 19 2007, 04:17 PM)
Pullback?
Building positions?
You are so incredibly full of crap it boggles my mind. You wouldn't know a pullback from a major market top if it sat on your face.
Why don't you shut the fornicate up and try to learn something from the people here who do know what they are talking about, you fraud.
I guess we need you to play the moran for comic relief.
Building positions?
You are so incredibly full of crap it boggles my mind. You wouldn't know a pullback from a major market top if it sat on your face.
Why don't you shut the fornicate up and try to learn something from the people here who do know what they are talking about, you fraud.
I guess we need you to play the moran for comic relief.
Doc!!! Someone phished your account password,logged in and started posting as you.
must be really cold up there.
I've had it with this troll. I don't know why I allow him to continue to post these IEDs on our board, but my patience has run out. This will be the last time I allow this passive aggressive crap, the sole purpose of which is to aggravate us. One more time and he's gone for good. Back to Yahoo boards where he can post with the other bombers.
Can I just say I was seriously about to pull the trigger on the SLM 35 puts at 4.50 a month ago?
DOH!
DOH!
I don't exactly know how,but this somehow sums up todays society.
Britney's mum's parenting book scrapped
A book about parenting by Britney Spears's mother has been delayed indefinitely, her publisher said.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/people/spear...7740423015.html
Britney's mum's parenting book scrapped
A book about parenting by Britney Spears's mother has been delayed indefinitely, her publisher said.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/people/spear...7740423015.html
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Dec 19 2007, 04:56 PM)
I don't exactly know how,but this somehow sums up todays society.
Britney's mum's parenting book scrapped
A book about parenting by Britney Spears's mother has been delayed indefinitely, her publisher said.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/people/spear...7740423015.html
Britney's mum's parenting book scrapped
A book about parenting by Britney Spears's mother has been delayed indefinitely, her publisher said.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/people/spear...7740423015.html
16 is quite an achievement for a rural Southern girl. Heck, she almost graduated high school in 8 more years.
Gee. I wonder why? I would think that it would be a best seller, just for laughs.
Well I have to to tentatively give the day to da bullz, they saved it right when things could have started to get real ugly....
Bears could still take the ball back...will be watching the 755 level on ER2 and 2050 on NQ....if we get back below those levels, we could see swift resumption of the downtrend.
Tomorrow could clear things up quite a bit...
Bears could still take the ball back...will be watching the 755 level on ER2 and 2050 on NQ....if we get back below those levels, we could see swift resumption of the downtrend.
Tomorrow could clear things up quite a bit...
KWave,
You totally ruined my Christmas.
Thanks.
You totally ruined my Christmas.
Thanks.
IT indicators that turned up a couple of weeks ago are now on the verge of turning back down
unless we get a miracle rally in the next couple of days, this is bearish
personally i didn't expect it
oh well
time to load up the short wagon
unless we get a miracle rally in the next couple of days, this is bearish
personally i didn't expect it
oh well
time to load up the short wagon
QUOTE(tdultima @ Dec 19 2007, 05:16 PM)
IT indicators that turned up a couple of weeks ago are now on the verge of turning back down
unless we get a miracle rally in the next couple of days, this is bearish
personally i didn't expect it
oh well
time to load up the short wagon
unless we get a miracle rally in the next couple of days, this is bearish
personally i didn't expect it
oh well
time to load up the short wagon
You too?
Great, now you're gonna tell me no one believes in the Easter Bunny either.
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