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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

A shortened trading day and the punters are making the most of it. All Ords +1.2% with all sectors green. Energy is the one today, +2.4% followed by Metals and Mining, +1.9%. Telecomms has the least gain, +0.5%.

Miners on the move: BHP +1.7%, RIO +1.8% and in the golds, Newcrest +1.8%, Newmont +1.1% and Lihir +2.7%.

Oils well up but volume somewhat lacking: Woodside and Santos +2.2% and Caltex +1%.

Some interesting thoughts fron Don Coxe.

So, if you’ve got a situation where the banks collectively don’t believe in each other, why should the
stock market? That’s what makes this so much different than previous crises. Because the fact that a
UBS, which we think is outside this spangled mess, that they could have a ten billion dollar write down just
like that, shows you that the Basel group now, is a battered Basel group. And when they meet together, you
can imagine how careful they are about talking to their bankerly brethren, because they’re collectively refusing
to lend to the rest of their brethren. That didn’t happen in all the past crises. What you had was the Basel
crowd working with each other and largely trusting each other. And certainly trusting each others balance
sheets which is what the Basel Accords delivered: balance sheets you could believe in. And one of the big
things that blew that, of course, was the SIVs.
Now the SIVs have leaked, as you might have expected. And what you’ve got then, is a situation that if the
banks are required - one way or another - to add those SIVs on to their balance sheets, they’re nowhere near
their Tier One capital ratios for Basel.
So, there is no easy way out of this except massive infusions of equity, massive dilution, and what has
been demonstrated is that the willingness of the central banks to lend on increasingly favorable terms
doesn't deal with the fundamental problem that you don't know the solvency of the collective system.
We can afford to lose a few full-scale hedge funds. I appreciate the help we got from Stephen Miller on this,
the former manager of the Harvard Endowment Fund, a brilliant guy, but his hedge fund that he set up after
leaving Harvard was down like 50% or so in a matter of a few weeks. So that, the very best are getting beaten
up in this. And if it happens to people of that level of brilliance and proven excellence you can imagine that a
lot of these big banks out there have got worse problems.
Remember that the hedge funds who specialized in the structured credits and figuring out how these sliced and
diced CDOs work, are largely populated by former bankers http://www.beearly.com/pdfFiles/Coxe%2022122007.pdf

It turned out to be a rollercoaster day. All Ords closed +1.2%, Energy continued to lead, +2.6% followed by Metals & Mining, +2.4% and Utilities dropped into last place, +0.2%.

Miners did a surge: BHP +2.2%, RIO +3%. Golds also did well: Newcrest +1%, Newmont +2.2% and Lihir +2.7%. Juniors also rose.

Caltex was the big mover in the oils, +4.3%. Woodside and Santos both finished +1.9%.

Over in Asia, Nikkers and Singers closed and among those open, Honkers +1.9%, Sth Korea +2.1%, Taiwan +2% and China +1.4%.


Over to UK/Europe:



Closed




http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Ah, the Christmas "spirit"...

Drunken Santas Rampage Through New Zealand City

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- More than 30 drunks dressed in Santa Claus costumes rampaged through the New Zealand city of Christchurch at the weekend, ripping down posters and scaring patrons in a movie theater.

The Santas ran screaming and cursing into the Hoyts Cinemas Group building in central Christchurch on Dec. 22, many carrying beer bottles, Derek Rive, the Moorhouse Avenue cinema's manager, said by telephone.

``They ran right past and into one of the theaters that had a movie in session and then started knocking down movie posters and then our Christmas tree,'' Rive said from the South Island city. ``Then they set off the fire alarm, which just stopped everything. They're a bunch of hooligans.''

Copper Surges in Shanghai as China Stockpiles at 10-Month Low

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Copper in Shanghai rose by the exchange-imposed daily limit for a second day as stockpiles in China slumped to a 10-month low, signaling that the world's biggest consumer of the metal may need to step up buying.

Shanghai copper stockpiles fell 2.5 percent to 25,722 metric tons last week, the lowest since Feb. 1, the exchange said Dec. 21. London Metal Exchange copper, not trading today, jumped 4.1 percent to $6,795 a ton after the inventory report.

Here are some stocks I will be watching .... all to the long side.

bcs
bmy
cfc
eca
gm
gmkt
gs
lqdt
mesa
mtu
pdc
sndk
tlab

U.S. 30yr Debentures CONtinue to weaken

Mar futures 114'12 -20

DJ Fed Accepts $10 Bln In 2-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 2-Day RPs
Total accepted: $10 Bln
Total submitted: $47.1 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.4 Bln
Total submitted: $22.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.45%
Weighted Average: 4.45%
High-rate submitted: 4.45%
Low-rate submitted: 4.2%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.6 Bln
Total submitted: $11.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.25%
Weighted Average: 4.29%
High-rate submitted: 4.35%
Low-rate submitted: 4.05%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $4 Bln
Total submitted: $13 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.55%
Weighted Average: 4.55%
High-rate submitted: 4.55%
Low-rate submitted: 4.3%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

Can the Fraudsters pull this off?

BILL DONOGHUE
Remember the Y2K overreaction
Commentary: Fed's subprime rescue could trigger a bear market
By Bill Donoghue, MarketWatch
Last update: 9:03 p.m. EST Dec. 23, 2007
SEATTLE (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve's answer to subprime woes may not be the panacea that some would hope for. Remember when the Federal Reserve Board flooded the banking system with liquidity in the hope of assuaging Y2K fears?
That action ignited a bear market. Some banks receiving all this unanticipated liquidity chose to lend money to their best borrowers, who pursued "easy" profits in the high-tech, high-potential world of the Internet

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bill...e&dist=printTop

What do you see that makes you want to buy CFC?

I wonder what longer term means?

Canadian Commercial Paper Investors Reach Agreement (Update3)

By Sean B. Pasternak and Doug Alexander

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Investors holding about C$33 billion ($33.3 billion) of short-term debt in Canada agreed to swap it for longer-term notes, ending a four-month freeze in trading of the securities.

``I am confident that this plan will provide most holders of outstanding commercial paper with the opportunity to receive the full repayment of principal by holding restructured notes to maturity,'' said Toronto lawyer Purdy Crawford, who heads an investors' group charged with the restructuring, in an e-mailed statement today.

The group didn't say how much investors will receive on the dollar, according to spokesman Mark Boutet.

The commercial paper will be restructured differently depending on the type of asset that backs it, the statement said


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...zwa0&refer=home

30 yr. debentures indeed!

I was expecting a spike low in yields which never took place. Maybe still to come.

Hi everyone! Just wanted to drop in and again wish you a joyous and safe Christmas with family and friends!

Joyeux Noel!

He has his facts wrong, his assumptions are wrong, and his conclusions are wrong. Other than that, it wasn't bad.

I mean, jeez, the guy is promoting the safety of money market funds here. C'mon!

Same to youse, buddy! I was hoping for a white xmas here in ohio, but alas.

btw, we had a hindenburger Friday and it appears another such omen today.

Who can you trust if you can't trust the experts?

I really like this guy, been a listener for several years, except when BMO took him "private" for a few months.

Is this newsletter/transcript published/posted anywhere after the weekly call ?

TIA.

... adding to SPX puts and CNH

My 30 year DEbeNTURES are also looking really bad ...

Will this be the last Credit Christmas?




AP
Unpaid Credit Cards Bedevil Americans
Monday December 24, 8:22 am ET
By Rachel Konrad and Bob Porterfield, Associated Press Writers
AP Impact: Americans' See Their Debt Woes Expand As Unpaid Credit Card Bills Are on Rise

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Americans are falling behind on their credit card payments at an alarming rate, sending delinquencies and defaults surging by double-digit percentages in the last year and prompting warnings of worse to come.

An Associated Press analysis of financial data from the country's largest card issuers also found that the greatest rise was among accounts more than 90 days in arrears.

=========

The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP. That represented more than 4 percent of the total outstanding principal balances owed to the trusts on credit cards that were issued by banks such as Bank of America and Capital One and for retailers like Home Depot and Wal-Mart.

At the same time, defaults -- when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt -- rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Serious delinquencies also are up sharply: Some of the nation's biggest lenders -- including Advanta, GE Money Bank and HSBC -- reported increases of 50 percent or more in the value of accounts that were at least 90 days delinquent when compared with the same period a year ago.

The AP analyzed data representing about 325 million individual accounts held in trusts that were created by credit card issuers in order to sell the debt to investors -- similar to how many banks packaged and sold subprime mortgage loans. Together, they represent about 45 percent of the $920 billion the Federal Reserve counts as credit card debt owed by Americans.

Credit Crunchy

Try this site. They have some good stuff. They usually post the transcripts within a week.

http://beearly.com/

This is classic consumer recessionary data. A generation has passed since the last REAL recession. Maybe the PTB will quit stoking the furnace and just let it happen. Recessions are necessary, right? Then the borrowing can resume.

It amazes me how talk of profits, deals, high finance,etc. is predominantly Wall Street-centric, while recession talk is always J6P/CONsumer-centric. Consumer credit card debt, although unsecured, is largely unleveraged (ie, used as collateral for further debt). Granted, a few private investor-idiots borrow off of cards to fund margin accounts or the like, but not nearly on the level as during the .com era, and never coming close to the amounts and 90+% leverage that the big guys can throw money at.

The "credit card" data of Merrill, YouBS, ShittyCorpse, etc. is still off the books. The US financial system will be Japanized, inflicting pain over years as the real credit card culprits nickle and dime their write-offs, and front page their "rescues", for the next 2 decades.

Once the Boomers are all dead, things will get better. I know I won't see the day.

Here is a really big buck job, holding on to it maybe a different story.

http://beearly.com/pdfFiles/Putin21122007.pdf

How much of this credit card debt has been securitized into levered vehicles?