Closed

Closed















http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Oz still partying....

I'll just throw in the UK/Europe charts in case I don't get back..


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park'

Doom & gloom article from The Telegraph..

shoppertrak say retail was looking weak but then on Saturday a Christmas miracle happened...

I wonder if MEW will finally take a dive ???

One of Dylan Ratman's boys was on Crapvision this morning trying to convince the sheeple to get into the China market issues.


So I guess they're doomed.



http://pricepages.org/temp/disp_doomed.jpg

ShopperTrak after Thanksgiving (below) said there had been a Thanksgiving shopping miracle but didn't that later turn out ot be a flash in the pan, or even just BS ???





a lot of this years good retail news stories later turned out to be just due to price increases in gasoline and food price inflation and not actual sales


start of December shopping - yeah just a few days later they were saying that sales were down on last year
http://www.shoppertrak.com/news_retail_sales_120407.php

Morning Stooltown. I hope everybody had a fine Xmess full of love, libation and fine food. Bucky is either in a wave 4 of 5 up or has just completed an abc correction and resuming his slide, in wave 1 of 5 down me thinks. Gold is right at the top of the pennant. It has already slopped over the bottom pennant line and may do the same to the top without resolution, but the apex nears.

I've not been short miners for a week and bought some of my little burro HL last week when it got slammed down on it's perferred offering. We probably mill about until the new year? or not?

Retail signs look like margins will be squeezed dry this xmess, if profit is made at all.

DJ Fed Accepts $10.5 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $10.5 Bln
Total submitted: $57.5 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $4.3 Bln
Total submitted: $26.9 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.46%
Weighted Average: 4.49%
High-rate submitted: 4.5%
Low-rate submitted: 4.25%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $200 Mln
Total submitted: $18.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.32%
Weighted Average: 4.32%
High-rate submitted: 4.32%
Low-rate submitted: 3.9%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $11.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.52%
Weighted Average: 4.52%
High-rate submitted: 4.52%
Low-rate submitted: 4.37%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

9:52 (Dow Jones) The general perception is that central banks are injecting
liquidity into the system in an effort to prop it up. But are they really? No,
says John Hussman, president of Hussman Investment Trust. "At present, the Fed
has injected less than $20 billion in total 'liquidity' since March - nearly
all of which has been withdrawn from the banking system as currency in
circulation," he writes. "It may make people feel good that the Fed looks like
it's doing something, but these actions are being misrepresented to investors
as being far more than they actually are." (PJV)
(http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc071224.htm

Redbook's take on the last week of pre-Christmas sales is much different than ICSC-UBS. Redbook reports only a 1.2 percent year-on-year rise in sales for the Dec. 22 week, well under the 2.8 percent reported earlier this morning by ICSC-UBS.

link

Commercial construction spending still increasing



Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Credit Crunch Hitting CRE

From the WSJ: Credit Downturn Hits the Malls (hat tip Houston)

The credit crunch ... is creating problems in commercial real estate, driving down prices of office buildings, shopping malls and apartment complexes ...

For the past few months, the sector has been in a state of near-paralysis ... The number of major properties sold is down by half, and many worry that the market will continue to deteriorate as property sales remain slow, prices continue to drop and deals keep falling apart.
...
The CMBS market was the engine that drove the commercial real-estate boom. Over the past few years, the issuance of CMBS allowed banks to get rid of the risk on their books, lend with cheaper rates and looser terms and that made it easy for private-equity firms to do huge real-estate deals.
...
Real-estate investors aren't the only ones feeling the pain. Many big banks issued short-term loans to buyers and planned to sell them off later, much the way they do with loans made to private-equity buyout shops. But the banks have gotten stuck with an estimated $65 billion in fixed- and floating-rate loans on their books, according to J.P. Morgan.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

NEW YORK (AP) - U.S. home prices fell in October for the 10th consecutive
month, posting their biggest monthly decline since early 1991, according to the
Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index.

The record 6.7 percent drop marked the 23rd consecutive month of price
deceleration.

My little Beijing biodrech may be ready to try for 10, or not.


AP
Sinovac Vaccine Passes Midstage Study
Monday December 24, 10:10 am ET
Sinovac Biotech's Pandemic Flu Vaccine Candidate Prompts Immune Response in Midstage Study

NEW YORK (AP) -- Chinese vaccine maker Sinovac Biotech Ltd. said Monday its pandemic flu vaccine induced immune responses in a midstage study.
LINK

BTW, breadth is a neg. 9-5 on nyse.

Target Corp. warned on Monday that December sales at stores open at least one year were running well below its previous forecast and may actually decline, jeopardizing earnings growth at the No. 2 U.S. retailer.

Sold half of NDX 100 (QLD) long position....expecting a trip back down to close the gap around 2080.....

[attachmentid=94054]

Hi Y'all. Hope all had a wunnerful holiday as we did.

Today's add by the Fed looks like a net add of a paltry $500 million leaving the 5 day net still at a net drain of $10.95 billion compared to a 5 day net add of 12.3 billion on the day after Christmas last year. The 4 week net is currently a drain of $12.2 billion, compared with an ADD of $12 billion at this point last year.

Fed Funds were well below target Monday night at 4.0%. Today's repo auctions had stop out rates ranging from 4.32 on Treasury collateral to 4.52 on mortgage backed. If Fed Funds are below target this evening, look for a drain tomorrow. If they are above target, we should see an add.

Tomorrow is a big day with last week's $20 billion TAF settling as an add, but with a total of $38.5 billion in expiring repos and T bill redemptions. So the Fed will need to add at least $18.5 billion in the usual Thursday overnight, 7 day and 14 day repos just to stay even.

The Treasury raised $9 billion in new cash Monday in the 13 and 26 week bill auctions totaling $39 billion. This was $8 billion more than the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) had estimated back in May.

The Treasury will pay down $13 billion at today's 4 week bill auction totaling $15 billion. It appears that the Treasury is simply lengthening maturities. This auction is $4 billion greater than the May TBAC estimate, and the paydown is more than offset by the new cash to be raise at the 2 and 5 year note auctions scheduled for today and tomorrow.

The 13 week bills sold at a rate of 3.28% (vs. 3.0% last week) with a bid to cover of 2.32 (vs. 2.32 last week). The 26 week bills went at 3.49% with a bid to cover of 2.61 (vs. 3.28% with a bid to cover of 2.34 last week). Indirect bidders including FCBs took down $4.7 billion of the 13 week and $6.2 billion of the 26 week bills, for a reduction of $2 billion from the auctions of the expiring bills, more evidence that cash flowing out of the ABCP market into the Treasury market may be diminishing. The result should be higher interest rates.

The Treasury will auction $22,000 million of 2-year notes on Wednesday 12/26 and $13,000 million of 5-year notes on Thursday 12/27, to refund $19,512 million of publicly held securities maturing on December 31, 2007, and to raise approximately $15,488 million of new cash. The total of $35 billion in the 2 auctions was also $4 billion greater than the TBAC estimate.

Instead of a net paydown of $3.5 billion in the week, as estimated by the TBAC back in May, instead we will end up with new supply raising over $11 billion in net new cash.

Treasury supply continues to grow at a rate far higher than the government had expected back in May. It will be interesting to see how much of the new paper is absorbed by indirect bidders including foreign central banks. At Monday's auctions they took down $2 billion less than they had at the auctions of the bills that are now expiring. If indirect bidders reduce their purchases of the 4 week bills and the 2 and 5 year notes we may be in the early stages of the interest rate rise that I have been speculating about. There was a big move up in bill rates on Monday.

The complete Fed and Treasury Daily Report will return in the WSE Pro (subscribers only) tomorrow. Subscribe today and don't miss these critical daily updates. Click the link below to get in RIGHT NOW!.

In case anyone missed this yesterday.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2093

Over on the housing bubble blog site

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html

“Joe Berry moved from California to northwest Hillsborough County in 2004 for a job. Berry wanted to buy investment houses. A Realtor steered him to Live Oak, and Berry focused on a model home. He could buy it, full of upgrades and furniture, and immediately get a tenant, Transeastern. In summer 2004, Berry bought four models.”

“His first lenders balked because the prices were higher than Live Oak’s other houses. Transeastern suggested new lenders and new appraisers. Their numbers matched the deals perfectly.”

“‘That should have been a big red flag,’ Berry said.”

retail

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?M down 5%

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?JWN down 4%

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?SHLD down 3%

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?XLY down 1%

More on the T-bill auctions. This is material normally reported in the WSE Pro daily Fed report:

On the Treasury auction front, the Treasury auctioned $39 billion in 13 and 26 week bills this week, which was $8 billion more than the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) had estimated back in May. The bills raised $9 billion in new cash. This was offset by a paydown of $13 billion in the 4 week bills. The total size of that auction was $15 billion which was $4 billion more than the TBAC May estimate. The Treasury also auctioned $35 billion of 2 and 5 year notes, which was also $4 billion more than the TBAC estimate, and raised new cash of $15.5 billion. On the week, the Treasury auctions raised net new cash of $11.5 billion. The original TBAC estimate had called for a net paydown of $3.5 billion.

Government finances are rapidly worsening as the US economy weakens. Treasury supply continues to grow at a rate far higher than the government had expected back in May. It will be interesting to see in the days ahead how much of the new paper is absorbed by indirect bidders including foreign central banks.

On Monday, 12/24, the Treasury auctioned 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills totaling $39,000 million to refund an estimated $29,997 million of publicly held 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills maturing December 27, 2007, and to raise new cash of approximately $9,003 million. The Federal Reserve System holds $14,015 million of the Treasury bills maturing on December 27, 2007, in the System Open Market Account (SOMA). The Fed has announced that it will redeem those bills, forcing the Treasury to increase its public offerings. Indirect bidders including FCBs had taken down $6.4 billion of the expiring 4 week bills, $6.5 billion of the expiring 13 week bills and $4.1 billion of the expiring 26 week bills.

The 13 week bills sold at a rate of 3.28% (vs. 3.0% last week) with a bid to cover of 2.32 (vs. 2.32 last week). The 26 week bills went at 3.49% with a bid to cover of 2.61 (vs. 3.28% with a bid to cover of 2.34 last week). Indirect bidders including FCBs took down $4.7 billion of the 13 week and $6.2 billion of the 26 week bills, for a reduction of $2 billion from the auctions of the expiring bills, more evidence that cash flowing out of the ABCP market into the Treasury market may be diminishing. The result should be higher interest rates.

On Wednesday 12/26, the Treasury auctioned $15 billion of 4 week T-bills resulting in a paydown of $13 billion. The TBAC had originally estimated in May that the offering would total just $11 billion. The bills came at 3.04% with a bid to cover of 2.92, compared with 2.75% and 3.04 last week. Considering the $13 billion paydown, which should have pushed rates down and the bid/cover ratio up, I would characterize this result as “terrible,” and possible additional evidence of the growing pressure I expect to see in the US money market. Indirect bidders took $2.1 billion of the current auction, a drastic cut of $4.3 billion from the maturing bills.

The Treasury announces the results of the 2 year note auction in about 5 minutes. It and the 5 year note auction tomorrow raise $15.5 billion in new cash. Ouch.

The complete Fed and Treasury Daily Report will return in the WSE Pro (subscribers only) tomorrow. Subscribe today and don't miss these critical daily updates. Click the link below to get in RIGHT NOW!.

As Doc has said thse homies are going BK, Mr Markit has not figured it out yet.


Biggest Homebuilder Writedowns Are Yet to Come: Jonathan Weil

Commentary by Jonathan Weil


Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Look at almost any major homebuilder's balance sheet these days, and it practically screams at you: ``Don't believe Mr. Market. Trust me!''

Either homebuilders as a class are grossly undervalued, or their assets are worth much less than their financial statements say. Odds are it's the latter. Home prices still show no sign of bottoming. And next month may bring lots of new confessions, when most of the companies report year-end earnings.

Take Pulte Homes Inc., for instance. The Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, company showed $8.1 billion of inventory at Sept. 30, namely land and houses. The company's book value, or assets minus liabilities, was $5.2 billion. Yet Pulte's stock-market value is only $2.7 billion, after a 68 percent drop in its shares this year.

That raises the question: Is Pulte's inventory, by itself, really worth three times more than the company as a whole? Probably not.

Pulte spokesman Calvin Boyd says the company tests its asset values quarterly, though he declined to comment on whether it might write them down more this year. Pulte reported a $787.9 million net loss last quarter, including $1.2 billion of pretax writedowns, about half of which were for inventory.

Eight of the nine U.S. homebuilders with market values of at least $1 billion now trade for less than their book values. Some like Pulte already have taken large writedowns on everything from real estate and joint ventures to goodwill. Yet their plunging stock prices indicate bigger charges to earnings may be needed.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...IzUA&refer=home

Doc, I admit I am puzzled by the contradiction, but your data is invaluable.

I still wonder if they are using another channel to add liquidity, but in so far as we know, they are taking a quite moderate stance, especially given the alternate GSE channels and such are on the canvas. Its hard to project Ben as responsible in this circumstance.

10 year yield double top here. If they break out, look out above.

Five year yields have already broken out.

The Bears getting ready to play in the Red Zone again ... betting a retest of intraday lows here soon.

Still a lot more downtrend volume than upside volume. A lot of volume into the Thanksgiving break (downtrend), a lot less on this move up into Xmas.

Grandma and Grandpa Stool and the elves.

ESLR Schwangorama

Pretty big plate of blessings for a guy named Stool!

Wonderful!

GOOG 700 and AAPL 200 showprints

the top is near

pulled the trigger, let 'em have some AAPL 220 calls, suckers

That's a grandma?
Way too young and pretty, Doc.
Buying TWM here.

IIJI

AAPL: 2C or not 2C

let 'em have some GOOG 760 calls

lotta dreamers out there

AAPL 199.42

pitiful

limp

Even moreso in person!

Da boyz have managed get that POS, CFC green.

I remember when I thought they were dreamers for buying the 500s. Those were the days.

I remember when I bought puts on AAPL at 50.

Got scared straight a while back.

Looking Great, Doc!

Enjoy them, they grow up so fast. ( You too MD, and Congratulations, BTW )


Sold some of my SLW today for fear the Pigmen return and take back what i took.

( TRE just crossed at $6.75 ) Whoo Whoo!

Or as the word of the year peeps say, W00T!


I am begining reentry into SKF. The news is not coming in good. I'll sell for a profit SOONER than later.