What an unsatisfying day for everyone today. I have a suspicion that the end of day indications may be negative. See you in the WSE Pro tonight, and we'll see.

Crapple two-time Loser

again today they showfraudprinted it over 200

butt it FAILED at the close, again

199.83

no ceeegar

AAPL is 10% of the Qubes. That one is gonna be the last to fall.

I think the top may come some time before the AppleOrgy in mid-January.

Another failed bear market sucker rally.

Bulls sucker-punched.

Santa Claus Rally chasers get coal in their trousers.

Hey everyone.....Have not been around,workin lots for the holidays and dealing with all kinds of problems.....

This is the latest problem...... my girlfriend did some bodywork on my almost new A4

She is fine,Amazingly......just a scraped elbow.....Audi saved her life.

NDX 100 bounced right off the 20 DMA today....I must assume that is still support...put/call ratio is not giving any trend changing indications...uptrend is still intact for now I'm guessing...nervously

[attachmentid=94125]

'scuse me, butt fer the Nardsaq100 that war Oct 31 at 2,238.98

it's over

Git Out

Yikes! I'm hoping that you're getting someone else to finish the bodywork?

[attachmentid=94128]

I was referring to 'da top for Apple.

But you maybe right on Apple as well.

I think it will buff right out...no biggie.



If You look closely at the pic,you'll see the side near the rear is all crushed too.It's a real mess






By the way,I have a slightly used A4 for sale if anyone is interested.....

Here's another chart of the NYSE A/D.....

[attachmentid=94132]

I think the top fer Crapple wuz Turdsday mornin'.

Apple was 7 bucks a share in 2003, people!

their laptops are about to be obsoleted by superior processors with 24-hour battery life

their music players are overpriced by 10x

their phone flat-out sucks

their stock valuation is absurd

nice divvy though nil

bottom line, this is so over-owned by Joe Twelve Pack, and so overpriced, it's nothing more than a nice big fat juicy short sale target

pro's will pile-drive it down into oblivion in 2008

Expecting a bounce in the SOX....If we don't get it - Bar the door!

[attachmentid=94134]

280.

reality check:

crude is $96 a barrel

gold is $844 an ounce

wages are spiraling down to third-world levels

CONsumers are hopelessly, permanently trapped in Ditech Debt and underwater tax targets

there are 4 million vacant unwanted abandoned tax targets rotting away

there will be 10 million abandoned soon

Notice the close on ER2 -- LoD and 1.24 premium over cash. Hmmmmmmmm.

I love the smell of program selling on Monday mornings.

overheard in the Shank MexDiego Zoning Dept. line:

"this house is eating me alive.....it's killing me."

Maybe they'll turn those homes into soft prisons once the crime spirals out of control.

Seems appropriate to see financial prisons becoming community prisons.

From the Just Nesting blog:

Christmas morning we woke up a little later than we planned. I popped my strata in the oven thinking it needed like 15 minutes but it needed 45 minutes. I called my mom and told her we were running about a half hour late. The house was still a disaster. We did manage to grab something every trip upstairs and I did finish the laundry. My mom arrived and we had a lovely breakfast, my strata was closer to perfect this year, still needed about 5 more minutes in the oven. My mom had brought some tiny presents for us, Christmas ornaments and such and surprised me with an electric bill sized check (enough for our house bill anyway) that I totally wasn't expecting. The first year Brian and I were together it was a mortgage sized check and man if I had just saved that or was able to switch the checks, I didn't need it then like I do now, but I probably would have started crying if it was, that would buy a lot of time for us. But the real estate industry affects the stock market too and my mom is freaking out about her investments. I don't mean to sound greedy, I hope it doesn't come off that way, it's just she's the only person in my life who could do that, buy me time, and it was not to be.

Why in the world do people want to argue with Doc’s work? If you don’t appreciate it, then don’t use it. But there is no need to argue over statistical analysis if you don’t care anyway. That would be nothing more than fighting for the hell of it. I was pointing out that I do see the value in it and I do use it to help make decisions. I’m sure there are other students of the markets on this sight that would benefit also.

I don’t think anyone really wants to argue over statistics. That is nothing more than a weak-ass provocation because this question is just stupid. Do you really think I’m sitting here with the latest R-square for my regression analysis? Get real. And furthermore, if you know anything about statistics, the R-square will tell you different things depending on the time frame (i.e. number of observations) and number of IV’s you want to throw into the equation. If you want to talk about 1-3 decades of market and money supply data, then it’s close to 1. Don’t you realize the markets are nothing more than an inflation barometer? Money supply goes up and so do the stock markets, period. If want to talk about shorter time periods, then R-square will be lower. The variance explained by Fed and FCB actions will not account for all the variance in the markets on shorter time frames because during shorter time frames other variables have effects (e.g. interest rates for variance in credit expansion or contraction, sentiment, etc.). So what good is an R-square for trading day-to-day? Zip-nada.

I don’t trade day-to-day like some of you. I trade with trends and only change long/short a few times a year. I was long going into the summer, but sold as the markets became extremely extended relative to the SOMA (see chart from 7/18/07). When the markets are extended v. the SOMA AND the index charts start showing distribution and churning, then it’s time to switch gears. Notice also that the SOMA had been flat all year – that alone was a reason to be watching for a correction. R-square would have been low at this point for 7 months of so of data, so to use it would necessitate understanding the variables predictive validity (not their reliability). At the very least, visual knowledge of the SOMA chart was very useful when combined with other analysis. However, I doubt this is what is being asked.

If you really want to dig into the statistics, then let’s do it in the name of discovery. I’ve been collecting Lee’s data for 2 years now and have toyed with this idea before, but never put the effort into it because the relationships become self-evident if you’re studying it daily. I have an MS in psychology and am proficient with SPSS. Perhaps Lee would even be interested in supporting this effort?

I’m on vacation at the in-laws in Studio City, but we could start when I get back. In the meantime, grab a beer, put on some loose underwear, and go enjoy a safe and happy New Years Eve. Peace out!

Well, I just think that there are different variables that carry different weight at different times. I don't think that that would lend itself to statistical analysis. It's more an intuitive thing. I try to read the graphs jointly and also independently, to see what the current drivers are. It's pretty nuanced. Most engineer would never get it because it's not black and white and doesn't fit into a nice neat mathematical black box.

The shrinks would get it, though. And the artists, musicians, writers. All the more right brained people.

You either get it or you don't, and those who think in strictly linear terms probably aren't going to get it. That's absolutely ok. Not everyone is going to be able to get in the flow of what I am presenting. Different strokes for different folks.

Perfectly ok.

But I am smart enough to know when someone is lobbing passive-aggressive hand grenades, and then playing all innocent.

And that's not ok.

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and Doc is correct with respect to Passive/Agressive Behaviour.
This concept Explains Plenty!

It arises from being exposed to corporate/institutional work spaces when the trapped individual can not strike Directly at them that are holding the vic down on the waterboards, so to say.

your jickiss encourages everyone to try to work/trade/live purely for themselves if they can, and to stop struggling, for struggling only hurts the SELF.

then, back to Broken Record ville,
CDE, just start Buying CDE with Both Hands!

da Boyz are going run out of ammunition/will power/ and Passive Agressive Ha HA that powers the effort that has been made over the last few years to hold down Gold and Silver and Miners and Miners Related.

2008 will be the year when da Boyz Dong, yes, Virginia, DONG all the PM s and related to make a Giant Killing. you know, Dong GG, the GG da Boyz bot from the Sheeple not so long ago at 23-24. Da Boyz will sell it all back at $66.

Dont become afraid to build a PM portfolio Now.
GG, RGLD, NEM, AAUK, ABX, AUY, TRE, CDE, SLW.

start with the known names. they are all cheep.

CDE will be the trigger. WATCH CDE every tic for the NEXT 2 WEEKS.

and remember in 2008,
god helps them that help themselves.
in other words,
THIMK!

jickiss!!!!!!!

Never let a woman drive your ride!

Glad to hear everyone is ok.

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!

and

the Main Reason your jickiss loves CDE now, is for the Basic Reason that the CDE item is making positive inroads against SLV (the silver tracker whatever item).

To like an item like CDE, it Better be doing better than the metal it produces (ok, it also does Gold but not enough....That Kensington Gold Mine owned by CDE will happen some day, for sure, once the right money finds the right wallets, meanwhile..)

so just take a good look at the Ratio Chart that follows:

please. with enough CDE and 50 tp 100 doolar Silver, we will all have Bentleys for sure! plenty of shares to go around, just wait till the Wise Guys have to cover!

love, jickiss!!!!!!!

I read that it's the time of year when the performance lists come out on mutual funds and stocks. Tis the season to trash the under performers and chase the good stuff for 2008. I also think there may be some reason not to chase 2007 performers and that is overextended price. Just ask Shorty about AAPL. If smart money seeks Dover Sole assets then the obvious would be banks and builders. I'd wait to see if a weak sector is under accumulation before taking on an opinion.

You can read more about it at Sy Hardings webpage

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and, Charmin, Exactly!

of course your jickiss is not going to parse that article linked above,
except to note the following idea; to wit (quoted from the article)

"the most obvious rule for successful investing is to buy low and sell high"


whooooa. Mr. Oneil never said that. Mr. O neil said to buy High and to Sell HIGHER and HIGHER and HIGHer, after you doubled and tripled your positon on the way up by buying more! HooHa indeed!!!!! momomomo!

THIS IS THE REASON why of all the commentators, O Neil is best and most loved by da Boyz!

just buy CDE, for you can not take a bath in an empty tub!

in support of Shortys warnings on AAPL take a look at the next ratio chart.

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!

then, to offer, (if that is the term), one more look at AAPL,

keeping in mind Bedrock jickiss logic that the formation for 2008 is Three Peaks, followed by a Domed House, Followed by a crash,

ask the Mirror Mirror on the Wall if, if, if, and just maybe,
Because the yield on the Zombie is still quite low
Because the rumours of a Credit Facilitly at 4% Something for any and all RE might come to be Fact in 2008
Because da Boyz have access to PPT money
Because da Bearz have had a problem with calling da Tops tooooooo sooooooon.

and because it is hard to id the "count" on AAPL, to find the 5th wave.....

can't AAPL, (rotten to the core though it may be),
be walked up to 260 or so by da Boyz ??????

you decide....here next is a jickiss-style point and figure chart for AAPL.

APPLE. it will fall to the earth, but upon what day????? who will send that special WIND, to shake that tree real bad and terrible, too?

jickiss!!!!!!!

What is SPSS?

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!



is this count on goog a sensible count?

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and

Dear cwd, your jickiss thinks that the following might be an answer to the question you posed earlier....

SPSS ---- statistical analysis tools and software

Gas prices in Silicon Valley are still quite high, even in the middle of winter. Most prices for unleaded regular are $3.30 a gallon or more.

I am willing to bet we will be at $4 a gallon by summer 2008 unless "something happens" to bring prices down.

It is amazing to remember that we were at $1.20 a gallon in 2000.

Thanks

Engineers and statesticles overANALize... everything...

WSE Pro, daily market update and long term outlook update have been posted.

This may have been posted earlier, if so, my apologies:

SAXO BANK: UK RECESSION TO PROMPT AIR OF 'FORCED SAVINGS' IN A TOUGHER 2008

David Karsbøl, head of strategy, Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank, the Danish online investment bank, issues a cautionary 2008 outlook - warning investors of the end of cheap money, tighter lending conditions, rising inflation and a UK recession ushering in a new mood of "forced savings" for Western consumers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...08/2008saxo.xml

Happy New Year to all on this great board.


-Pegasus

Today's Winter Watch is fantastic. A discussion of option-arms, based on an LA Times article.

In fact, more than 75% of option ARM borrowers have been making only the minimum payments, analysts at Standard & Poor’s Corp. said last week.

Yes.

Whooooooooossssssse gots their New Year '08 IRA/RRSP picks ready?

You know...those buy and forget candidates that can ride for awhile...tax free?

....besides QID and DOG etc.

I got about a half-dozen candidates for a nice basket of possibilities.

I'll post technicolor charts sometime this weekend, probably in the late hours tonight or tomorrow. A little patience please...

I'd sure like to see some other candidates from others. Some nice ones have already been suggested. Perhaps an amalgam of stoolie dongs for a winner '08 buy and forget 'folio.

Yah... 'cause ya gotta have that!

....and the riverboating stuff for short term compounding.

Along the same theme, this year-end tax-loss selling and new year buying is occuring at a time when many winning picks are salivating over booking the profit in the new year to defer tax 'til '09, and the year end sellers want to book their '07 tax loss, el pronto.

This is occurring conveniently at a time when so many different suctor charts and individual issues are displaying possible bottoms of a long term nature, and yet many suctors and individual issues have held up in the stratosheric zone....ripe for new year profit taking by monied whiteshoes and big money players.

I'm expecting a whole lot of convenient tax related mashed potatoes moving around the plate.

Cash is not trash.

From a marketmarket free e-mail.

Keep Some Cash on Hand

"Tonight's show is all about teaching you to invest like a pro," Jim Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Friday. "There are all of these money- losing mistakes that people, who don't invest for a living, make when they try to manage their money and I want to help you avoid them." First, from what Cramer's seen, amateurs are almost always fully invested, "meaning that all the money in their portfolios is invested in stocks and no cash is left on the side." Professional money managers, on the other hand, always have cash in their portfolios, he said. Market players should always want to have cash and if they don't, they need to sell something, Cramer said. "This is one of the most alien and difficult concepts for most ordinary investors to understand," he said. "Nonprofessionals think it's right to be fully invested. I'm a champion of stocks, but that's totally, 100% wrong." People need a reserve so that they can profit from declines in the market, Cramer explained. As the market will always have pullbacks, people will always need cash. "It's there so that you can take advantage of a selloff by purchasing your favorite stocks at much lower prices," he said.

Some people may get the impression that CWD values Cramer's opinion. I know CWD. CWD is a friend of mine. And CWD is no friend of Cramer's.

Lest anyone out there get the wrong impression. Actually someone already has.


Actually, the truth is that most professional investors only hold the bare minimum of cash necessary to meet redemptions. Other than that in many cases, particularly most mutual funds they are mandated to remain fully invested.

As usual, Cramer is full of crap. Most pros don't hold significant amounts of cash. And most non professionals don't have any.

But I do, therefore I thought Cramer and I might be on the same page.
I don't buy Cramer's recommendations, but he has lot more money than I or probably anybody on this board with a couple of exceptions.
I thought these dipsters must have some cash or how do they buy the dips?

Thanks Doc, but I can defend myself if someone wants to fun a comment I made.

Ahead of the crowd, something Doc has been warning about since last summer.

Legg Mason Shores Up Cash Funds With $1.12 Billion (Update2)

By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Legg Mason Inc. pumped $1.12 billion into two non-U.S. cash funds to prevent losses, the biggest bailout by a money manager tied to asset-backed debt sold by structured investment vehicles.

The move, along with an earlier cash infusion, will reduce earnings per share by 15 cents in the quarter ending Dec. 31, the Baltimore-based company said today in a statement. Legg Mason has provided $1.47 billion to support money funds and other cash- management portfolios since November.

SIVs were popular investments for money funds looking to increase yields. The vehicles sold commercial paper or medium- term debt, some backed by subprime mortgages, that has plunged in value on fears that they will be hurt by rising home loan defaults. Bank of America Corp., Federated Investors Inc. and SunTrust Banks Inc. propped up funds with SIV-issued debt in the past month to prevent losses for investors.

``This action is consistent with our ongoing efforts to reduce the ABCP exposure in our liquidity funds in light of current stresses in the credit markets,'' Raymond ``Chip'' Mason, Legg Mason's chief executive officer, said today in a statement, referring to asset-backed commercial paper.

To raise the capital, Legg Mason entered a total-return swap with Barclays Plc, which purchased SIV securities from Legg Mason.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...8_V0&refer=home

It's all yours, Captain!

Umm... no.

This is a bogus claim, and not one I'd hang naked call selling on.

You must never have used one.

Because it flat-out effing rules.

Two things I started seeing in the sillycon valley recently:

- there are lots of "space available" signs in front of smaller commercial buildings lately. I am also seeing more for sale signs in front of small commercial properties.

- There are more "toy" vehicles for sale now, like tricked out pickup trucks of the 2003-2006 vintages. I am seeing more used vehicles for sale in general, and many don't seem to be too old.

Here in the Valley I think we'll finally start seeing some action in real estate again, to the downside. All those neg am/pay option arms are going to start resetting.

There is a still a high level of activity in the mall areas. Plenty of people at "babies r us" buying stuff for their kids.

Wow.
Whaddachart!
Gonna watch this. Thanks!

Go Giants!
Go '72 Dolphins!