Happy New Year. Health and Happiness to all goldbugs. That's all I really have to start the new year off with. I'll be watching CDE.

Indeed,

It will be a Happy half a New Year for the bugs.

I suspect it will be another "Sell in May" year like 2006.

If my count is correct, we're in a very tiny wave 2 of 3 of a possible 5.

The downdraft should be short and sweet---not more than a week or so.

Then buckle up for a real ride up.

Get ready to get long in a big way.

XAU 195.50? We're not going to head there and re-test several times.

We're going to catch our breath in the next week and leave all the onlookers in the dust

CDE:

I have a large position in CDE.

Price and on balance volume are out of sync.

One or the other requires correction.

Happy New Year to all

I agree with you Bearvest but make it Sell in April

2007 was the first year my 3 Canadians outperformed overwhelmingly my
3 Souths Africans ( probably because of the exchange rate ) anyway no complaints on 2007

For my own benefit, I've taken stock of my long positions in the miners.

I'll share my thoughts with you.

AEM is a market outperformer. A $2.00 daily move in this stock is commonplace.

If you look at a longer term chart, you'll se that it bottomed in late May of 2007, not August 16th.

Between May and August, MACD rose sharply in wave 1 (and what I believed was also waves 2 and 3).

I added long on August 16th, in what I thought was wave 4 or a large irregular correction.

I sold in late Seprember as price had reached into the 50's but MACD had merely reached its July highs.

I put on 2 successful short trades in November at $52 on the 2 unsuccessful attempts to fill the gap. Wach was covered at $48.

Last Wednesday, when Gold broke out, I had my wish list in place.

AEM was first on my list due to the positive MACD divergence.

I had to chase it and was ultimately filled at 52.50.

It fell on Thursday and my Fib time counts called for a market peak on Thurday of Friday. I sld an "in the money call" at 3.60 capturing what I believe will be a significant time premium.

I expect the stock to retace to the low $51 range. It looks like 5 waves are in. Although it and CDE were the only 2 HUI components to rise Monday, I find comfort in the doji in support of my planned execution.

I'll buy back the calls there.

GG:

GG has always been my core holding. I've owned it for several years and got more when it merged with GLG.

On the November 14th gap fill I sold December 35's against part of my position.

I covered the balance of my position in late November.

I was disappointed with MACD, so I sold the stock and bought back all the options in early December at $34. I made 1.57 per option and faced a large capital gain on my core sale.

I relaced it last Wednesday at 34.10. Under Canadian tax law, a sale will be ignored if the security is re-purchased within 30 days.

On Friday, I wrote January 35's on my stock position at an average $1.17.

I expect to re-purchase the calls for 25 cents.

EGO:

It was on my watch list due to its positive MACD divergence.

I simply bought it above its downtrend lne on a breakout.

I'm less enthusiastic about it now that I'm an owner.

My view of CDE is simply that anything inside a large trading range between $3 and $7 can be out of wack with volume and price as it gets manipulated. What is notable is a supply line break in early November with volume and price. If it was just short covering, then I'd expect a pullback, but if supply was exhausted back in mid August, then it has the potential to rise back to $7 with price and volume out of wack.

That's why I'm a Wackoff trader.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1199209880.png

Doesn't anyone chart spot or future gold? Or the US$? This precious metal bull could run for years in parallel with a commodities' bull.

Only three months ago we had a decisive move and came back down and below for a retest. Good trading weather with all the movement.

If you hold bullion like me (or an ETF like GLD) and pay US taxes, you probably detest the fact that realized gains, long and short-term, are taxed federally at 28% like other collectibles, art and antiques, for instance.

Well, there are bills in both the US House and Senate that would have bullion treated no differently than equities for capital gains tax purposes. These bills have been introduced before and not gotten far but maybe if we make a concerted effort to give 'em an earful, this time could be different.

The bill is worded identically in each house. It's called the Fair Treatment for Precious Metals Investors Act.

The US House bill is H.R. 2883, sponsored by Rep. Shelley Berkley of Nevada. (Is that a mining state? )

The US Senate bill is S. 1546, sponsored by Sen. Michael Crapo of Idaho. (I've heard something about mines there, too. )

With the gains we bugs anticipate over the next few years, it sure would be a nice time to get this relief.

So, if it's important to you, contact your representative and senators and let them know you care about the issue and want these bills passed.

Please feel free to spread this around to other metals forums.

NEM:

It powers the indices, although ABX now has a significant weight in both XAU and HUI, having closed out its forward book.

Like the indices, it has found that the 50 sma has been a significant challenge.

Like the indices, it has an apparent 5 wave structure since the December lows (an apparent opening diagonal as 4 overlapped 1--not the most bullish of starters.).

A doji for Monday's close.

GOLD and the Miners:

The Miners are, in my opinion, at a very early stage of a correction which, I believe, is wave 2 of 5 up.

GOLD, by contrast, appears to be in a 4th wave correction of an impulse up. In other words, it has not, like the Miners, completed an impulse up.

It could result in an extension of the rally in the Miners.

Or it could result in a small correction to GOLD to the $820- 25 level followed by a huge 5th wave in GOLD and a corresponding rally in wave 3 for the Miners. No one in the Miners is anticipating this. But I've posted my warnings about 5 waves in, a 61.8% correction in many stocks, and the upper resistance at the 50 day line.

Show me anyone who hasn't predicted in his or her 2008 forecasts that GOLD will exceed $850.00 this year.

We Canadians know how to paddle a canoe. And the fisrt thing that you learn is that when everyone leans to the same side, the canoe is succeptible to tipping.

Nice jump in spot gold this early morning.

US rocket opening on HUI and XAU after the official stick save on the monthly slow stochs
(note on the chart made yesterday that somebody traded on the first of january starting a red candle

Weekly doing nicely too

I wish the daily would start a new parallel channel above 850

P&F's:

The miners are closing in on important levels here.

ageka, i too am looking for an april top. april marks the 89th month of the bull market. a significant fib #. after that i look for a multi month correction which has the potential to bring gold back into the 500s, for a wave 4. dharma

I didn't think we'd get close to 870 this quickly and with relative strength today in the gold shares.

Crisis coming?

The price of GOLD is at all time highs and the DOW's down 200 points.

What calamity does this portend?

1970's style stagflation?

I was more thinking of going to 1200 and then falling back to 850 like

I am looking at gold and shares in dollars and euro and rand
and for the moment in any currency the shares are neutral on the RSI 14 and
RSI 50 so they have nice headroom to go up

For non Americans the dollar may make a lot of difference

Yes. I think so.

Stagflation to boot.

Blame it on Gold Majestic... lol

Early to rise.. late to bed

Are we having divergence?

Stagflation: Where things you don't need go down in price and the things you do need go up in price.

Looks like we're heading for a Japanese style economy.....He who hesitates is lost.

Crisis coming? Yes, we've been in a HUGE credit crisis that continues to get worse. We've been discussing that for the past 9 months.

Stagflation, yes, that too. Go back and check out some of the charts and commentary discussed over the past years.

AEM Jan 50 Calls are asking $7.30 today. You were warned.

I think these green monster candles are analogous. Looking for mid 500s on HUI before wave 4.

28 years in the making. Some corks should be popping today.

Looks like stair stepping, a very strong pattern.

Kinross gave me 9% today that is more like the old days (1980) when a share would give 5% on monday and 5 on tuesday and 10 on wednesday when you sold it to buy back 25% lower

GDX Fills the Nov 12th Gap!

G.M.

To add to my misery, my only unhedged position is CDE. There was no time premium.

So, taking stock, I'm a seller of AEM at 53.60 and GG at 36.17.

My loss, so far, is only an opportunity loss if my stock is called away at OPEX.

And, this writer adds with a hint of defiance, there are now 5 waves up on both the GOLD and indices charts.

For the goobers that missed a major piece of the GOLD BULLISH fundamentals pie that illuminates the world's present CREDIT CRISIS that has been rearing its ugly head SINCE EARLY 2007:

Take a moment from your ABCs to REVIEW some old news that has been constantly updated throughout 2007:

Derivative Trades Jump 27% to Record $681 Trillion

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Derivatives traded on exchanges surged 27 percent to a record $681 trillion in the third quarter, the biggest increase in three years, the Bank for International Settlements said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...0EbM&refer=home

My loss, so far is only an opportunity loss.

Bearvest, I'm happy to hear it was a small position!

I was hoping you hadn't sold short the remaining 75% for a full position.

Give this galloping gold market some reins until weakness develops. You'll get your 2 of 5 soon enough. Charts are getting Dover Sole now and due for some consolidation.

I'm still nervous about the broad markets and a potential crash. I was happy to see the gold stocks decouple today. I hope this develops into a pattern and that the world's CB enormous liquidity injections continue to keep Humpty Dumpty from taking his great fall off the wall. In that event, everything would get trashed, including the PM stocks. I'm actually more concerned with monitoring the broad markets at this juncture. In the mean time, continue riding the bull.

gooberout

I'd like to congratulate Coin Guy and the other Rodeo Stars on this board, Meta, etc., that stepped up to the plate to continue accumulating their favorites within a few days of the recent Dec low. Despite the criticism from members such as TraderFromHell, you guys once again called it right and prospered!

Congratulations!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Okay, now back to the secular Bull Ride.
We've entered the year that will be known as the YEAR of EXTREME VOLATILITY.
Keep yours ears to the ground for any sounds of an imminent stampede!

Hey don't blame it on me goobs!!!

Blame it on

Art Art who loaded the cart!

And
Lee Lee who turned the key!

And
Hank Hank who turned the crank!

And especially don't forget the pilot
Ace Ace who blasted it into space!

i didnt think wave 2 would last long, but i didnt think it would be one day. which is why i buy and hold this market. we started wave 3 today w/a powerful move. buckle up! and you better get a neck brace. dharma
slw, gg, and grs were standouts today.

Beside the large bars the only other silver play is SLW. Today that was all I needed.

You are an ace pilot with golden wings. Thanks for taking us on the ride. I'll forget about CDE now.

Heading into the new year, 2008 — A few Big Picture Gold fundamentals to take note of.

Aside from all the obvious Gold Bullish Factors related to the troubled U.S. dollar, petrodollars seeking shelter from the storm into gold, geopolitical risks, etc., we have:

A Tightening Supply/Demand for Gold:

According to the World Gold Council data, despite the world's gold mines production, producer hedging, world CB selling, and gold scrap selling, the total supply of gold is failing to keep up with demand as increasing demand from CHINDIA continues unabated. According to GFMS, world gold production fell to 2,477 metric tonnes in 2006, down over 3% representing a 10-year low. A final tally from 2007 is projected to be down as well. Looking ahead, industry analysts see production falling off 15% or more over the next several years. (RSA production has dropped a third since 2002.)

Next, take into consideration investment demand revving its engines, up 618% from the 3rd quarter '06 at 19.2 tonnes rising to 138 metric tonnes in third quarter '07. Impressive! and we're only in the beginning stages.

Then we have the ETFs such as GLD (US), GLD (Johannesburg), IAU, GBS, CEF, DGL, GOLD (Australia), etc., that have been increasing physical gold holdings and are up a whopping 700 plus tonnes since the 39 tonnes in '03 to the current 741 metric tonnes of gold since the end of November '07. And of course by now we're all aware of the anticipated PM ETFs/Mutual Funds to open in gold-hungry, 2 BILLION-plus-population, middle-class-burgeoning CHINDIA.

Putting it altogether goobers, we take into account the world's top gold producers focused less on new exploration and more on working their ever dwindling, existing mines are/will be forced to buy up the limited, quality, highly-leveraged juniors.

Hope you have your Call Option Juniors on gold/silver for 2008-2009. My .35¢, FREE Shares/Never Expiring Call Options on Arizona Star, were cashed out in my TD Ameritrade account on Dec 24th 15:32:26 at @ US$18.226. It took a whole 8 years for that to happen, but definitely worth the wait. Aside from taking off my initial capital after the first double, never traded it through all the ups and downs. I can say the same about many of the stocks I had owned from the commencement of the PM Bull market that were bought out over the years.

slw, gg, and grs were standouts today.

Hey dharma, don't forget our MGN, up 17.35%!

Aw, shucks,

Charmin,

'tweren't nuthin,

I'm speechless . . .

P&F's:

Someone's gotta be wrong.

I can't recall a crash in the broads that was unaccompanied by a decline in the miners.

Stocks are stocks.

Jon Nadler:

Spokesperson for Kitco.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/jan012008B.html

Here's the Hulbert article that Nadler referred to.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cont...40D2339064BA%7D

BV: 600 points a crash?
Surely sans crash, the two can and have had serious divergences in recent years

Not the traders. The buy and holders.

14,200 to 12,400 is an 8% decline. It ecceeds a normal 4% to 7% correction.

Maybe not a "crash" in the broads.

Since 2002, when the broads peaked so did the miners.

Spot on the move again, maybe I should day trade at the open. Wonder if RGLD is gonna play catchup. China may help out when it starts buying in a few days.

I subscribe to a service telling me what the Joburg goldmine index does
I set the alert at 2% and got alerts when I switched on my puter
I reset my alert at 4% and got alerts just now
Joburg seems in good fettel today

Another 21% and I might consider reducing my positions

Well 10% ain't bad Master Goober. I am a master of fading myself. I have maintained and have always stated that I continue to hold despite any short term corrections. I think time has proven dharma correct in his assumption that the Hunt attempt to corner Silver was a one time event and am looking to dump Silver sometime in the first half of this year April-May timeframe sounds right. As for Coinguy a one and a two.

Using some kind of one on one godmode is still predicting 1020 dollar an ounce

see halfway down attachement the blue zig zag

http://www.godmode-trader.de/front/index.p...da=756718&idc=8

If one was considering a bear market in stocks for 2008, then it may be that they as a whole should follow the financials and anticipate setting their prices at least back to the July 2006 level. The XLF has been reset to the April 2005 level.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1199358982.png