Closed



Closed













http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Quite the cheery start for 2008 although volume is still a bit patchy. All Ords +0.5%, Property Trusts, +1.4%, is in the lead with a dead cat followed by Materials +0.9%. Most sectors have minor gains and IT is the only red, -0.2%.

In the miners, BHP stepping out, +1%, RIO +0.2%. Golds are mixed: Newcrest +1.8%, Newmont flat and Lihir -0.3%.

Oils looking like they may go somewhere: Woodside +0.6%, Santos +0.1% and Caltex -0.3%.

All Ords lost interest in the arvo closing +0.2%. Property Trusts went from leader to finish at the bottom of the pile -0.3%. Telecomms moved to the top, +1%.

Miners lost the plot: BHP +0.4% and RIO flat. Golds did a little better: Newcrest +2.1%, Newmont -0.2% and Lihir flat. Juniors were flat to up.

Oils moved on up: Woodside +1.1%, Santos +1.4% and Caltex +0.2%.

All red in Asia: Sth Korea -2.2%, Taiwan -2% and Honkers -0.9%. Looks like Nikkers is still closed.


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Which crisis are we in?

Published on Taipei Times
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials...1/01/2003395186

Three cures for three crises

By J. Bradford Delong

Tuesday, Jan 01, 2008, Page 9




A full-scale financial crisis is triggered by a sharp fall in the prices of a large set of assets that banks and other financial institutions own, or that make up their borrowers' financial reserves. The cure depends on which of three modes define the fall in asset prices.

The first -- and "easiest" -- mode is when investors refuse to buy at normal prices not because they know that economic fundamentals are suspect, but because they fear that others will panic, forcing everybody to sell at fire-sale prices.

The cure for this mode -- a liquidity crisis caused by declining confidence in the financial system -- is to ensure that banks and other financial institutions with cash liabilities can raise what they need by borrowing from others or from central banks.

This is the rule set out by Walter Bagehot more than a century ago: Calming the markets requires central banks to lend at a penalty rate to every distressed institution that would be able to put up reasonable collateral in normal times

From the same article pertaining to the second crisis:

"This kind of crisis cannot be solved simply by ensuring that solvent borrowers can borrow, because the problem is that banks aren't solvent at prevailing interest rates. Banks are highly leveraged institutions with relatively small capital bases, so even a relatively small decline in the prices of assets that they or their borrowers hold can leave them unable to pay off depositors, no matter how long the liquidation process."

Contrary Investor concurs:

"As we stand here today, we have four discount rate cuts and three Fed Funds rate cuts under our collective belts, but many a credit market relationship rests at a level of deterioration below what was seen in August of this year. In many respects, credit market conditions are worse today than before the Fed and global central banking friends began their current monetary easing cycle adventure. As we've stated a number of times, the basic credit market problem of the moment is not liquidity per se, it's solvency and ongoing deterioration of collateral values underpinning mountains of in place leverage originally built on faulty forward collateral value growth assumptions."





http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

Singapore's GDP Unexpectedly Shrinks on Weaker Output

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's economy unexpectedly contracted for the first time in 4 1/2 years as factory output slowed, suggesting Asia's export-dependent markets may face increased risks from weaker global growth.

Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 3.2 percent last quarter after adjusting for inflation, from a revised 4.4 percent expansion in the previous three-month period, the trade ministry said today. Economists expected a 3.1 percent gain.

Singapore is first in Asia this year to report fourth- quarter figures, giving analysts an insight into how turmoil in global markets and the subprime-mortgage crisis in the U.S., the region's biggest export destination, may affect Asian economic expansion. South Korea and Taiwan have already warned easing demand for semiconductors, mobile phones and computers portends weaker growth in 2008.

Centro Puts Itself Up for Sale as Debt Deadline Looms

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Centro Properties Group, the Australian owner of 700 U.S. shopping malls, put itself up for sale as a Feb. 15 deadline nears to refinance A$3.9 billion ($3.4 billion) of debt.

Chief Executive Officer Andrew Scott said he's also invited bids for stakes in his Australian and U.S. institutional funds, which Centro values at a combined A$3.7 billion. The Melbourne- based company said Dec. 17 it may have to sell assets to pay debt, sparking an 86 percent two-day slump in its shares.

Centro controls 700+ shopping malls, mostly in the USA, it's lead bank is JPM and it has given up on finding a lousy $3.4 Billion refi money?

Round numbers here, were talking about less than $5 Million per shopping mall and even JPM won't put up the money.

It was only a matter of time until the sub-prime mess became zootonic-like and jumped from affectiing liar loan bagholders to innocent-looking bystanders, like retail real estate managers/developers.

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Just checking the gold price, it woud appear we are in mode THREE.

after opening the pre market with a gap up, the qqqq drifted back down to near Monday's closing level. The turn came from the 5 day cycle MA, which is now at 51.45. The declining trend remains intact.

3 and 5 day cycle indicators are fibrillating. Buy signals have followed small price pops, only to whipsaw within hours. 3 day cycle may be in a sideways' up phase with price oscillating around 3 day cycle MA now at 51.34. The key to breaking the trend is the 5 day cycle MA and a 4 day trendline both now at 51.45.

Dow still below declining 3 day cycle MA at 13303, with 5 day above that at 13339. Trend resistance is between 13300 and 13315

DJ Fed Accepts $14.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $14.25 Bln
Total submitted: $27.15 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $6.186 Bln
Total submitted: $8.05 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.28%
Weighted Average: 4.32%
High-rate submitted: 4.35%
Low-rate submitted: 4.15%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.692 Bln
Total submitted: $12.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.98%
Weighted Average: 4%
High-rate submitted: 4.06%
Low-rate submitted: 3.7%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $5.372 Bln
Total submitted: $6.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.34%
Weighted Average: 4.38%
High-rate submitted: 4.4%
Low-rate submitted: 1.3%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

Not a clean breakout ...yet.

Whats mode 3? What did I miss?

BAHHHH rumpdump!

ISM lowest since April 2003.

Bombs away. TNX cracks the 4% barrier. now 3.956

lower channel supports on dow at 13170. spx at 1459.50. qqqq 51.08

Donged some SDS.

XXXXX New Year

Check posting 11 for article referenced.

Dow smashes the channel, then immediately recovers.

This is going to be an interesting year

BKX makes fresh new multiyear lows right out of the 2008 gate.

BWAHAHAHA

*DJ Euro Climbs To Intraday High Above $1.4700
Yen is flying
Commodities moving higher

dollar meltdown?........

Sheet, I forgot...


GO BULLZ DOW 360,000

My indicators just turned negative.....short with impunity

[attachmentid=94202]

Had a feeling we were going down hard when wrong way Carl flipped long on Thursday December 27th. It's been nothing but down down down.

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

That drop missed his stop by 4 ES points. Might get it later on today.
He's one of the BEST trader to fade out there.

Holding GS and ANF puts. They were giving it away last week.

Looking at AMZN feb 90 puts here.

WM up today. Odd?

ATH on GLD

They are giving you another chance.

Midcaps look like they are losing support....

[attachmentid=94204]

DJ Pakistan Pres To Seek Help From Scotland Yard In Bhutto Probe


ISLAMABAD (AP)--Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said Wednesday that he
had requested a team of investigators from Scotland Yard assist in the
investigation into the killing of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto to help
clear up any confusion.



aren't they still looking for Jack the Ripper?

What we do now?

Cramer touting AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG.
Also he is bad mouthing Helo Ben .
His tout of 08 is energy. The top must be near.

I would wait for a bigger bounce on the banks. Fed meets at the end of January. There should be a fed cut rally soon right?

Seeing some positive divergence on C.

Cramer is on CNBS now, demanding immediate big interest cuts. says Helo Ben is trying to punish speculators.

spx 5 hr cycle projection 1459

dow 13130

qqqq 51.02

will be doing a Radio Free Wall Street podcast for the next hour or so.

Off to NY for a couple of weeks. This promises to be the most interesting business trip in years. Trade safely. Or not.

whats this meeting at 2pm gonna bring us? a start to the new year slide?

Please place all buttwipes in the rubbish bin. - the Management

[attachmentid=94207]

Hi Ho

I believe we just set a new ATH for spot gold above $850.

It is a proud day indeed to be a stark, raving, foaming at the mouth, deranged gold kook. Like me.

I dunno.... What would Jesus do here?

[attachmentid=94208]

WOWSER!

*DJ Bear Stearns Director Novelly Sells $4.34M In Stock >BSC


GMTFO NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!