It's my wife's and my anniversary today. Going out to dinner. Market update will be late tonight.

If at all.

just announced AH

DJ Bush Exploring Stimulus Package To Boost US Econ -Press Secy


  WASHINGTON (AP)--Amid new worries about a possible recession, the housing
slump and rising oil prices, President George W. Bush is exploring an economic
stimulus package to reinforce the U.S. economy.

  White House press secretary Dana Perino said Thursday that Bush is closely
monitoring economic trends and is seeking input from his economic advisers on
the pros and cons of such a package.

its over

git out

I remember that in May 06 you said:

Sell everything.

It was a day or two after May rate increase.
It was a nice ride down for a few weeks - gold stocks rode the hardest.

just announced AH

DJ Bush Exploring Stimulus Package To Boost US Econ -Press Secy


  WASHINGTON (AP)--Amid new worries about a possible recession, the housing
slump and rising oil prices, President George W. Bush is exploring an economic
stimulus package to reinforce the U.S. economy.

  White House press secretary Dana Perino said Thursday that Bush is closely
monitoring economic trends and is seeking input from his economic advisers on
the pros and cons of such a package.

Speaking of tourism, sadly, our most popular ski area, located about 10 minutes from my house has closed, a victim of crushing energy costs, declining sales, and weird capricious warm winter weather. No snow here last year until mid January, then 30 below zero temperatures for a couple weeks in February.

Other ski areas are offering deep discount packages to try to generate revenue, but we hear that they are losing a ton of money as result of cost squeeze. 

Sad.

Ron Insana on CNBS, this is not commodity inflation, but flight from fiat money. I would think he will get a talking to.

Ron Insana on CNBS, this is not commodity inflation, but flight from fiat money. I would think he will get a talking to.

I wonder where Drano's got himself off to.  Maybe he's Here.
TOKYO, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond futures jumped to a one-month high on Friday, boosted as domestic stocks took a beating, while U.S. Treasuries posted slight gains ahead of crucial employment data due later in the day.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB slipped to its lowest in a month while the two-year yield hit a 15-month low in the first trading session of the new year, after the Nikkei average .N225 tumbled about 3.5 percent.

----

The 10-year yield <JP10YTN=JBTC> slipped as much as 3.5 basis points to 1.465 percent, its lowest since early December, while the two-year yield <JP2YTN=JBTC> fell 1.5 basis points to 0.690 percent, its lowest since October 2006.
Maybe they haven't quite come out of their 17 yr. deflationary nightmare just yet.

sweeeeeeeet.

I wonder where Drano's got himself off to.  Maybe he's Here.
TOKYO, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond futures jumped to a one-month high on Friday, boosted as domestic stocks took a beating, while U.S. Treasuries posted slight gains ahead of crucial employment data due later in the day.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB slipped to its lowest in a month while the two-year yield hit a 15-month low in the first trading session of the new year, after the Nikkei average .N225 tumbled about 3.5 percent.

----

The 10-year yield <JP10YTN=JBTC> slipped as much as 3.5 basis points to 1.465 percent, its lowest since early December, while the two-year yield <JP2YTN=JBTC> fell 1.5 basis points to 0.690 percent, its lowest since October 2006.
Maybe they haven't quite come out of their 17 yr. deflationary nightmare just yet.

According to Altman’s data there may be $3 trillion in outstanding high yield bonds and leveraged loans. If we were to repeat the default experience of 2001 and 2002, combined defaults over two years encompassing a mild recession would be equal to 22% of total outstandings. That would encompass $660 billion of such low grade loans. Altman calculates that, over the last 36 years, loans that go into default experience only 40% recoveries. That translates into a dead weight loss of $400 billion from defaults on low grade corporate obligations over a two year period.

Nikme getting beaten like Rodney King!

Woes mount for Mexico's state oil titan

Output is declining rapidly, but national pride and politics may block possible fixes.
By Marla Dickerson, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
January 2, 2008

MEXICO CITY -- With crude oil topping $95 a barrel, these should be heady days for Petroleos Mexicanos. Mexico's state-owned oil monopoly, known as Pemex, generated record revenue of about $100 billion in 2007.

But at a ceremony marking the 69th anniversary of the nationalization of Mexico's oil industry last year, Pemex General Director Jesus Reyes Heroles wasn't in a celebratory mood.

"The situation of Petroleos Mexicanos is critical and merits immediate attention," the company's top executive said.

...

Pemex managed to lose $1.2 billion in the third quarter. Output is declining, as are exports and proven reserves. Mexican Energy Secretary Georgina Kessel said last month that Mexico's crude production, which averaged about 3.1 million barrels a day in 2007, could fall as much as one-third in less than a decade if the nation didn't move fast to reverse the slide.

The consequences could be painful, not only for Mexico, which relies on oil revenue to fund about 40% of its federal spending, but also for world markets, which are feeling the pinch of tight supplies. Mexico is the No. 2 provider of petroleum to the United States, behind Canada.
....

Much of the trouble stems from Cantarell, Mexico's largest oil field. Located in shallow waters off Campeche state in the Gulf of Mexico, Cantarell supplied about 60% of Mexico's output until recently. The field's production peaked in 2004, when it averaged more than 2 million barrels a day. Output has tumbled since then, down about 30% to an average of 1.46 million barrels a day through the first 10 months of 2007.

Analysts for years have predicted the decline of this aging workhorse, which has been pumping for nearly three decades. The real shocker, they say, is that Mexico's government did so little to prepare for its inevitable demise. Geologists believe there is plenty more oil to be found in the deep waters of the gulf. Pemex simply doesn't have the tools to go after it.

That's because deep-water drilling requires specialized knowledge, advanced technology and piles of money -- none of which Pemex has. Cantarell's oil was so plentiful and so easy to extract for so long that spending big bucks on tough drilling elsewhere wasn't a priority.

The lawmakers who approve Pemex's budget instead channeled oil wealth into roads, schools and social programs. Pemex is far and away the nation's biggest taxpayer, turning over more than half its revenue to the government.

....

Some deep-water experts, including Brazil's Petrobras, have expressed interest in helping Mexico tap its hard-to-reach crude in exchange for a share of production. That's currently impossible under Mexican law, which grants Pemex a monopoly on all aspects of oil production, refining, transport and sales and forbids outside investment in its energy sector.

That leaves borrowing. But Pemex has hocked itself to the hilt. The company ended 2006 with $52.3 billion in debt on its books, making it the most-indebted oil company on the planet. Time is running out. Pemex's proven reserves fell by nearly 30% to 15.5 billion barrels from 2001 to 2006. The company last year replaced only 4 barrels out of every 10 produced. Yet public officials continue to spend. The recent run-up in oil prices produced windfall revenue that paid for baseball stadiums, fancy government offices and other gimcracks.

"It's a scandal," said David Shields, a Mexico City energy analyst who has written two books on Pemex. "Pemex's money is being divided up among politicians with no control on how it's spent."

la link...

WASHINGTON - Millions of $40 government coupons became available Tuesday to help low-tech television owners buy special converter boxes for older TVs that might not work after the switch to digital broadcasting.

Beginning Feb. 18, 2009, anyone who does not own a digital set and still gets their programming via over-the-air antennas will no longer receive a picture.

That's the day the television industry completes its transition from old-style analog broadcasting to digital.

The converter boxes are expected to cost between $50 and $70 and will be available at most major electronics retail stores. Starting Tuesday, the National Telecommunications and Information Administration will begin accepting requests for two $40 coupons per household to be used toward the purchase of the boxes.



linky poo

That leaves borrowing. But Pemex has hocked itself to the hilt. The company ended 2006 with $52.3 billion in debt on its books, making it the most-indebted oil company on the planet. Time is running out. Pemex's proven reserves fell by nearly 30% to 15.5 billion barrels from 2001 to 2006. The company last year replaced only 4 barrels out of every 10 produced. Yet public officials continue to spend. The recent run-up in oil prices produced windfall revenue that paid for baseball stadiums, fancy government offices and other gimcracks.

from the "in case you didnt look department"::
 
From: wndysrf  Replying To : jumanji0881 (post 439295)  Jan 3 2008 6:53PM
Title: Translation:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Amid collapsing stock prices of financial companies, retail establishments, and an imploding housing market, President George W. Bush, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Louis Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs (group otherwise known as the Plunge Protection Team) are closely monitoring the performance of the stock market.

White House press secretary Dana Perino said Thursday that the PPT is "talking down the stock market" in order to build record short positions among the speculative community and create a high degree of negativism in the financial community.

President Bush and the PPT are close to "announcing a gigantic stimulus package and a series of large scale interest rate cuts and liquidity injections" to provide a "shock" to the Wall Street bears and launch a huge rally in stocks.

"Higher stock prices is the only medicine available at the present time to get consumers back into the spending mode and boost confidence in our financial markets", quipped Perino.

News of the stimulus package is scheduled to be announced immediately after the jobs report Friday morning.

Being merged with PWE - details have been in the works for some time.

Link

Excerpted from a scrupulously researched and documented 18-page PDF cited by one of the commenters on Russ Winter's blog.  If you're wondering whether/why Rutty will continue to lead to the downside, this is mandatory reading.  Also, if you're thinking about shorting Trashuries anywhere near their current level, this analysis will give you a better appreciation of the real risks inherent in such a trade.