http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

An opening thunk today with scarcely a green on the screen. All Ords -1.8% with the star red, Property Trusts, once again leading the way at -2.7%. IT is next at -2.5%. Utilities is down the least, -0.6%.

Miners are pulling back: BHP -2.5% and RIO -1.7%. Golds also down: Newcrest -1.3%, Newmont -0.7% and Lihir -3.1%.

Caltex is the worst off in the oils, -4.1%, Woodside -1.6% and Santos -1.3%.

Some realistic thoughts on the Credit debacle. It sounds like something from a stoolie.

If the largest banks deal with the asset valuation issue and the related need to raise capital, most of these organizations can survive the coming year. The answer to that question for particular institutions, as we said last year, depends upon the height of the oncoming credit default wave. Our view is that if 2007 was about market risk, 2008 will be the year if credit risk. Moody's (NYSE:MCO) predicts that corporate debt defaults will rise from 1% in 2007 to 5% by the end of 2008, a change which implies that the US economy is going to crater large and that corporate credit spreads must widen further from current levels.

As dealers mark down inventories of structured assets, the same process must occur for the clients of the dealers, or at least one would think. Thus if 2007 was the year of the dealer losses, 2008 may be the year when losses to funds of all types are especially prominent. After all, the only difference between a hedge fund and a SIV is that one vehicle pretends to be at arms length from its sponsoring broker, while the other does not even bother to pretend. In both cases, the sponsor dealer financing the assets via margin loans effectively sets the "fair value."

One of the key drivers of the markdown process are auditors, internal and external, who a preparing to certify the financial statements of thousands of funds, dealers and banks. In almost every case, the audit professional has clients who have spent the past six months trying to avoid massive losses on structured assets of all sorts and now are asking audit firms to certify their financial statements. Whether you are auditing a public company or a private hedge fund, the risk of litigation is enormous and the value of potential claims extend far beyond whatever professional fees are involved.

http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAMain.asp

All Ords closed down -2.3% which leaves the index clinging precariously to support on the daily chart with an awful lot of empty space below the support. IT plummeted the most, -3.4% with Property Trusts a mere blip behind at -3.3%. Seven sectors closed down 2% or more. Telecomms ended with the least damage, -1.3%.

Miners sold off although volume was relatively muted: BHP -2% and RIO -2.2%. In the golds, Newcrest -2.1%, Newmont -1.8% and Lihir -4.6%. Juniors sustained light losses.

Oils followed the action: Woodside -1.5%, Santos -1.7% and Caltex -3.8%.

Asia bearish: Taiwan -4%, Honkers -2.7% and Nikkers -1.3%.


On to UK/Europe:





Closed


http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Europe Confidence Falls to Lowest in Almost Two Years

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- European economic confidence fell in December to the lowest in almost two years, as orders weakened and soaring prices for food and energy pushed up inflation.

An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the euro area slipped to 104.7, the lowest since March 2006, from 104.8 in November, the European Commission in Brussels said today. A separate report showed producer-price inflation accelerated in November to the highest in almost a year.

Producer prices increased an annual 4.1 percent in November, according to today's data, the most since they rose by the same margin in December 2006. The increase was above the 3.3 percent of October and the 4 percent median forecast in a survey of 21 economists by Bloomberg News.

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The bellwethers report which that was linked to emphasizes the 13 week cycle. In the bigger picture, it may not be too late to short, but there should be much better, lower risk entries than right now. Likewise there are a few stocks and groups that haven't had their turn in the barrel, but because they are still in uptrends, that makes the timing trickier. As a rule I don't like to short strong stocks or sectors, but there are exceptions. Maybe now? That's one of the issues I deal with in the WSE Pro nightly market updates. And in fact, I did pick a few more shorts on Friday.

The Plot Thickens

It’s the stuff of pulp fiction, but, in this case, all too true: Bill Ash, the man who’s come forward to assert that hedge fund millionaire and Crapvision commentator Seth Tobias did not die resulting from an accident, but a deliberate attempt on his life, has passed his polygraph test, ripping the lid off what is likely to be a painful and dramatic battle among potential heirs of the Tobias fortune – including his wife, now being accused of murder. http://www.traderdaily.com/news/item/13869.html

WSE Pro Precious Metals Update posted.

UK - Credit woes 'hit finance firms'

Business levels at UK financial services firms fell at their fastest rate in almost 17 years during the last three months of 2007, says the CBI.
A sign that the global credit crunch has started to bite, the fall marked the end of a two-year run of continuing growth, the business organisation said.

The level of business volumes is now its lowest since March 1991, said the CBI, which conducted the survey in association with accountancy giant PricewaterhouseCoopers.


http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7174424.stm
Last Updated: Monday, 7 January 2008, 07:02 GMT

qqqq beginning to roll over after hugging the declining 3 day cycle MA for the duration of the premarket.

dow and spx uptick at the open, moving toward 3 day cycle MAs at 12899 and 1425.62

There are a a couple dozen old support projections on the QQQQ between 46 and 48. Makes things interesting. If they hold, we get a bounce. If they start cutting through them like they're not there, look out.

GDX holding in the vicinity of the merged 3 and 5 day cycle MAs around 49.94. Next support is the 8 day, still rising at 49.07. If they start turning up from here, look for a move to test Thursday's high around 51.25. Otherwise they should pull back to the 8 day.

On the broads, as long as they remain at or below the 3 day cycle MAs the steepest downtrend remains intact.

DJ Fed Accepts $2.5 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $2.5 Bln
Total submitted: $47.35 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.85 Bln
Total submitted: $26.4 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.21%
Weighted Average: 4.21%
High-rate submitted: 4.21%
Low-rate submitted: 4.1%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $650 Mln
Total submitted: $6.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4%
Weighted Average: 4%
High-rate submitted: 4%
Low-rate submitted: 3.85%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $14.1 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.23%
Low-rate submitted: 4.18%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

Big Blew 99.99

gov't crude buckoff

96.39 -1.30

Thanks Doc, I like to trade the SPX and NDX only but I took profits on Friday's close and looking for a chance to short again.

Yet another drain by the Fed.

I count no fewer than 14 old support projections between qqqq 48.13 and 47.

Here comes the test of the first. If they start giving it up easily, this could be one of the biggest down days yet.

gdx heads for the 8 day cycle MA at 49.13.

Interesting comment on why ABCP rates have fallen sharply.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2131#comment-72917

qqqq just took out the first 3 shport lines. sitting on the fourth at 47.89. They come in every 10-15 cents.

That was a pretty weak boner. All the major indexes now RED

RIMMsucker slapped back to double digits 99.99

just like Big Blew

It looks like 25bps baked in. When are they going to make it official?

Close to a bounce yet?

[attachmentid=94378]

next line 47.72, then a pair at 47.59.

wow!
check out VMW....what a collapse today.

They don't seem to be making much effort to keep the rate at 4.25. They'd have to drain even more to do so, and they are headed for zero growth in the SOMA as it is.

It's a bizarre spectacle, that's for sure.

Whiskey Haines looks like he is ready for a mid morning bracer. He can't believe the indexes are now RED. Where is the PPT?

Like a hot knife through buddah.

next lines 47.45, .35, .25

What do they do?

They just broke the last descending channel line at 47.72. That signals downside acceleration.

Better stop things here or "Houston....we have a problem"

[attachmentid=94379]

5 hr cycle projection looks 47.40

spx 5 day cycle projection 1398.

Serious barsoap action on the less than prom indexes.

SPY & DIA at key level. We shall see.....

5 hr cycle projection 1402-03 hit.

Dow is through 3 day cycle projection of 12775.

SOX freefall....

[attachmentid=94380]

gdx hits 3 day cycle projection of 49, and 5 hr projection of 48.75 after piercing 8 day cycle MA at 49.14. They need to hold it here. There's an air pocket to the 48-47.75 area.

A certain windsurfer was caught on tape looking for a bounce....

This is pretty consistent with theory that monetary policy is effectively useless now.

NDX low: 1929

2 of the 3 short etf's added to the WSE Pro Charts as of the open this AM already down more than 2% since the open. The lagger is down fractionally.

This is like shooting oxygen deprived fish in a barrel.

Maybe too easy. hmmmm.....

Pushing on a string.