http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

The US rollercoaster action has left the Oz punters bothered and bewildered. All Ords +0.2% and the action is mixed. Healthcare is in the lead, +1.8% followed by Property Trusts +1.4%. Metals & Mining/Materials are the only red sectors, -0.7%.

Miners drooping: BHP -1.5% and RIO -0.9%. Golds are doing better, Newcrest +1.9%, Newmont -1% and Lihir +1.3%.

Oils mixed: Woodside -0.6%, Santos flat and Caltex +0.1%.

It ended up being a general vote for down. All Ords -0.6% which puts us through the daily chart support by a few points. However it wasn't a convincing break so tomorrow's action should tell the story. There were only a few green sectors left standing led by Healthcare, +1%. At the other end the mining sector continued to slide finishing -1.5%.

The two biggies stayed red: BHP -2.5% and RIO -1.3%. Golds fumbled around: Newcrest +1.7%, Newmont -0.2% and Lihir -1.1%. Juniors were mixed.

Oils came up a touch: Woodside flat, Santos -0.7% and Caltex +1.7%.

Asia doing the roller coaster: China +1.4%, Honkers +1%, Nikkers -0.5%.


On to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Australian Building Approvals Unexpectedly Surge 8.9%

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's home-building approvals unexpectedly surged in November by the most in nine months as higher employment, wages and immigration spurred investment.

The number of approvals to build or renovate houses and apartments rose 8.9 percent from October when they slipped 3.6 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for no change. The increase was driven by apartment building.

An acceleration in construction increases pressure on the central bank to raise borrowing costs to stem inflation, already above its 3 percent ceiling. Today's report also suggests investors may be switching into property amid stock market volatility that saw Australia's benchmark index drop almost 10 percent since the start of November.

---------------

Australia's Construction Industry Growth Accelerates on Demand

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- An expansion in Australia's construction industry accelerated in December, boosted by new infrastructure projects and commercial property building.

The construction index rose 6 points to 59.2, according to a report by the Australian Industry Group and Housing Industry Association released in Sydney today. A reading above 50 indicates the building industry is expanding.

``The non-residential markets in particular are providing a major stimulus to activity, highlighting the considerable backlog of work in infrastructure products,'' said Tony Pensabene, associate director of economics and research at the Australian Industry Group.

U.K. Retail Sales Gains Slow, HBOS House Prices Fall

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. retail sales rose at the slowest pace since March 2006, and house prices declined for the first quarter in seven years, adding to the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates again.

Revenue at stores open at least 12 months increased 0.3 percent from a year earlier in December, the British Retail Consortium said in London today. Home values fell 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the first drop since 2000, according the HBOS Plc, the country's biggest mortgage lender.

Retail sales in the 13 countries sharing the euro fell 0.5 percent in November, the second month of declines, data from the European Union's statistics agency showed today.

Looks like everyones setting to cover their shorts.
You could hear a pin drop, but every things up.
Got gold

Yes. Our gold stocks are going to enjoy a pop this morning. If it sticks it will be great. If not...

Meanwhile. the Qs have pulled back from the 8 day cycle MA and several resistance lines at 48.65. They will need to power through that to get any real upside going.

SPY is above its 8 day cycle MA at 141.94. That's the line they need to hold for any chance of a real rally. DIA is below its 8 day cycle MA at 128.95

on the spx the key is the 5 day cycle MA coming down at 1423.19 and on the dow at 12876.69

qqqq 5 hr cycle indicators have gone to sell side as the Qs pull back to the convergence of the 3 and 8 day cycle MAs at 48.28. If they break that, could retest the low. If they hold, the 3 and 5 day cycles' up phases are still intact.

The up phases actually began at the first low yesterday AM. They are still sideways unless they can take out yesterday's highs, which they are on the verge of doing right here. But the QQQQ is still slipping.

DJ Fed Accepts $1.5 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $1.5 Bln
Total submitted: $59.3 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.5 Bln
Total submitted: $28.2 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.24%
Weighted Average: 4.24%
High-rate submitted: 4.24%
Low-rate submitted: 4.1%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $10 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4%
Low-rate submitted: 3.9%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $21.1 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.25%
Low-rate submitted: 4.15%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

KB Home reported Tuesday a fourth-quarter loss of about $773 million

Total quarterly revenue fell to $2.07 billion from the prior year's $3.01 billion, as housing revenue dropped 31% to $2.02 billion. Home deliveries declined 22% to 8,132 in the fourth quarter, while the average selling price fell 12% from the previous year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/kb-h...ist=morenews_ts

That must be good and the bottom is near. The stock is down 12c/sh.

dow and spx break the highs.

All the chatter from the shills and fumble managers on CNBS is that the FED will cut minimum 25pbs min and we need 50 bps. Forget about the dollar.

Correction: KBH now green.I wonder what bad news looks like.

Pulling back to the b.o. may not hold. Katy bar the door if it doesn't.

The Qs didn't join the fun.

Geez- The Fed wouldn't even roll over the $2.5 billion expiring. Another drain.

Today feels important, for some reason. How many more times can they pump this overinflated elephant? Maybe today will be the slap in the face these plutocrats need.

qqqq 3 day cycle indicators getting perilously close to a sell signal here.

No inflation worries, new ATH on Gold. Got GOLD?

What choice do they have if they want to maintain any semblance of a stable monetary policy?

QQQQ turns up, 3 day cycle indicators stay on buy side. price crosses 8 day cycle MA. at 48.62.

spx 3 day cycle projection 1440-42.

dow initial 3 day cycle projection 12940.

Whiskey Haines, Where is Hammering Hank? He is running late,. trying to figure out the new stimulus package.

qqqq 3 day cycle projection 48.90

Pending home sales worse than expected. BUY!

He is on camera now. Guess what. Everything is going to be OK.

Press Release - National Ass of Reamtors

WASHINGTON, January 08, 2008 -

Over the next few months, existing-home sales are expected to hold fairly steady as indicated by pending sales activity, then rise later in the year and continue to improve in 2009, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is a pull and tug exerting itself on the market. “On the one hand, we have a pent-up demand from the four million jobs added to our economy over the past two years of sales decline,” he said. “On the other, consumers continue to wait for additional signs of market stabilization. There are more people with financial capacity now than in 2005, but many are trying to market-time their purchase. As a result, the exact timing and the strength of a home sales recovery is a bit uncertain. A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008.”

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 2.6 percent to a reading of 87.6 from a strong upward revision of 89.9 in October, but remains above the August and September readings and indicates a broad stabilization. The index was 19.2 percent below the November 2006 level of 108.4. “Although there could be some minor slippage in the first quarter, existing-home sales should hold in a narrow range before trending up,” Yun said.

The PHSI in the South rose 2.3 percent in November to 100.7 but is 19.8 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index slipped 2.1 percent to 86.6 but is 18.5 percent lower than November 2006. The index in the Midwest fell 4.1 percent in November to 82.1 and is 18.6 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast, the index dropped 13.0 percent in November to 70.1 from a spike in October, and is 19.1 percent below November 2006.

Existing-home sales for 2007 will probably total 5.66 million, the fifth highest on record, then edge up to 5.70 million this year and 5.91 million in 2009, compared with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices for 2007 are likely to be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600, hold even this year and then rise 3.1 percent in 2009 to $224,400.

“Rising home prices in the affordable midsection of the country are likely to offset declines in some of the previously hot markets,” Yun said.

There are wide variations in housing market conditions around the country, with nearly two-thirds of the metropolitan areas showing price gains. Healthy increases in metro prices are occurring in places such as Pittsburgh; Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas; San Jose, Calif.; and Bismarck, N.D.

“Our consumer survey shows buyers today are in it for the long-haul, planning to stay in their home for a median of 10 years. This is a wise approach to housing because the data shows the longer you own, the better your investment,” Yun said.

New-home sales are projected at 773,000 for 2007, and declining to 669,000 this year before rising to 730,000 in 2009, but well below the 1.05 million 2006. With an appropriate slowdown in production, housing starts, including multifamily units, are forecast at 1.36 million for 2007 and 1.09 million this year before edging up to 1.10 million in 2009; starts totaled 1.80 million in 2006. The median new-home price should drop 2.1 percent to $241,400 for 2007, and then rise 0.4 percent to $242,200 this year and gain another 5.9 percent in 2009.

“Some policy changes, such as raising the loan limit on conventional mortgages, would provide a significant boost to home sales, increase liquidity, strengthen home prices and lessen foreclosures, but it is unclear as to if and when the measure will be implemented,” Yun said. NAR strongly supports raising the Government-Sponsored Enterprise loan limit to at least $625,000 from the current $417,000 so that more consumers will have access to lower interest rates on safe conforming mortgages. “NAR estimates that raising the GSE loan limit will result in interest rates savings for an additional 330,000 homeowners,” he said.

NAR also encourages the Fed to make a single lump-sum cut in the Fed funds rate to 3.5 percent at the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting, rather than a series of modest cuts throughout the year. “Consumers are also looking to market-time interest rates, and the expectations of further rate cuts are pushing some home buyers to delay. Monetary policy will be much more effective with a one-time large cut, rather than a series of small cuts,” Yun added.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is expected to rise slowly to the 6.3 percent range by the end of this year, but an additional cut in the Fed funds rate would lower short-term interest rates.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is seen at 2.1 percent in 2007, below the 2.9 percent growth rate in 2006; GDP growth will probably be 2.0 percent this year.

After averaging 4.6 percent for both 2006 and 2007, the unemployment rate is estimated to rise to 5.3 percent in the second half of 2008. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is projected at 2.9 percent for 2007 and 3.1 percent this year; it was 3.2 percent in 2006. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 3.1 percent for 2007, the same as in 2006, and then grow 1.6 percent this year.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_rel...home_sales.html

Pent up demand?

Existing-home prices for 2007 are likely to be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600, hold even this year and then rise 3.1 percent in 2009 to $224,400.

An unbelievable statement, He obviously needs a job..

Er, uh, just a snippet and a link will do.

I just posted the number to my charts. Atrocious is the best word I can come up with. New record high in the inventory to contracts ratio.

I was waiting for that.

It was a press release. So I just posted it. Didn't even finish reading it. I had to wipe the vomit off my screen.

sow ran into downtrend line at 12910

Some sanity has returned to the SM, KBH now down 5% after initialing shaking out a few weak shorts.

Bucky's just drooling out the side of his mouth as gold and silver and earl ramp. 50 ma is 76.24, 20 ma is 76.74, and dtl is at 77.3.

good luck to all one-trick ponies dip-donging busted scams like Crapple

they gonna end up with their arses stuffed full of unwanted shares

that Ass o' Reamtors propaganda is some seriously funny sheet

delusional

An interesting piece from Barry Ritholtz

5 Stages of Market Grief
posted on: January 07, 2008 Print Email
One of the most intriguing things I find about the market is how the collective psyche sometimes resembles a singular entity. In particular, I have been fascinated by the commentary we have heard from some quarters regarding deep and obvious flaws in the present macro environment. I spent a lot of time over the holidays (skeptically) reading commentary from various pundits. There was something strangely familiar in the absurdly erroneous observations, but I couldn't place my finger on what it was.

Until Friday. I don't know who or what actually triggered my memory, but it finally dawned on me what the parallel was: The Kübler-Ross model of 5 stages of grief.

For those of you who never took any psych in college, that is the process by which humans deal with grief and tragedy. It was introduced by Elisabeth Kübler-Ross in her 1969 book "On Death and Dying". This has become well-known as the "Five Stages of Grief". They are:

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

Reviewing recent market commentary, it appears that the investors, traders and pundits alike have been working their way through each of these 5 stages. Consider:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/59270-5-st...of-market-grief

delusional would appear to be the operative word.

Trannies are now RED.

Doc why does Acrobat Reamer always load itself when I browse the Stool?

Election years are supposed to be positive for the markets. This one has gotten off to a negative start. Do folks think that will change by November?

This being an election year, of course somehow that fact is going to have a huge effect on the markets, but what? Any guesses? Here are my rambling thoughts about this below, but I could be way off base here.

I wonder if the time has come when Goldman Sachs is no longer the ruler of the universe and can not have what it wants. Looks like their fave presidential candidate may not make it through the primaries-- whether due to voting machines rigged by Diebold employees who support the current White House, or due to actual votes. If the least electable candidate (in the general election) wins the Dem primary, then the Repub would get elected, without anything having to be done in the general election by his supporters. Americans often vote against someone, not for someone, so whoever appears to most folks to be the lesser of the 2 evils will get the most votes.

Goldman and the other big brokers do a lot of manipulation of money and stocks of course. But voting machines are not their area of influence. So looks likely that they may get stuck with a president that they don't want next time. I suppose they could bring down the markets in order to try to let the non-incumbent party win. Do folks think that is what is happening?

If not, what DO folks think is happening here? And why is the Fed draining? Someone pointed out on this board that Bernanke stays in no matter who gets into the White House, so he has the freedom to do whatever he thinks is best for the country-- or for his closest political friends or allies-- or whatever he wants to do.

2000 was an election year too

So did the powers that be manipulate it in 2000 because they didn't want a Dem president to win who might raise their taxes? Or what? These ultrapowerful financial organizations are unlikely to stand by passively and let things happen. They try to control things. But how?