aussiebear
Jan 9 2008, 11:36 PM
aussiebear
Jan 9 2008, 11:44 PM
aussiebear
Jan 9 2008, 11:48 PM

Live feed dead as a doornail, not sure whether it's the vendor or the east-west cable.
Think I'll just wander off to the gym and check in later....
aussiebear
Jan 10 2008, 05:36 AM

A teetery sort of day with sectors very much mixed. All Ords closed -0.2%, doing almost a round trip. IT did a desperate little surge, +2.4% with Telecomms next at +1.2%. At the red end, Property Trusts plunged deeper into the abyss, -1.6% and Consumer Discretionary wasn't far behind, -1.2%.
The mining sector was mixed: BHP -0.3%, RIO +1%. Golds pulled back: Newcrest -2.6%, Newmont -0.7% and Lihir -0.8%. Juniors were all over the place.
Oils generally down: Woodside -0.9%, Santos -1.3% and Caltex +0.5%.
Asia not doing a lot: India +1.2%, Honkers -0.9%, Nikkers -0.3%, China +0.2%.
On to UK/Europe:


http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
aussiebear
Jan 10 2008, 05:42 AM
Goldman Says Japan Recession Risk at `Danger Level' Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group cut its economic growth estimate for Japan and said there's a 50 percent chance of a recession in the world's second-largest economy.
``We estimate the probability of a recession in Japan has risen to the `danger level,''' Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japan economist at Goldman, said in a report to clients today. ``We project weaker-than-expected growth in Japan.''
Yamakawa cut his 2008 growth estimate to 1 percent from 1.2 percent and said the central bank may have to forego raising rates this year, citing slower demand from emerging markets.
aussiebear
Jan 10 2008, 05:46 AM
South African Vehicle Sales Fell 15.1% Last Month Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- South African vehicle sales fell an annual 15.1 percent last month, the most in more than five years, as rising interest rates and fuel prices eroded demand, an industry body said.
Passenger car sales fell an annual 19 percent last month, while purchases of light commercial vehicles, such as minivans and pick-up trucks dropped 11 percent, the association said.
EZ_Money
Jan 10 2008, 08:32 AM
QUOTE(aussiebear @ Jan 9 2008, 10:42 PM)
Goldman Says Japan Recession Risk at `Danger Level' Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group cut its economic growth estimate for Japan and said there's a 50 percent chance of a recession in the world's second-largest economy.
``We estimate the probability of a recession in Japan has risen to the `danger level,''' Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japan economist at Goldman, said in a report to clients today. ``We project weaker-than-expected growth in Japan.''
Yamakawa cut his 2008 growth estimate to 1 percent from 1.2 percent and said the central bank may have to forego raising rates this year, citing
slower demand from emerging markets.
Any talking head on CNBS who claims Asian and other EM economies will 'de-couple' (and be unaffected) by a severe US recession is simply prospecting for 'suckers' to unload EM shares upon (before the global economy crashes and share prices everywhere plummet).
IMHO, when the US 'catches cold', the rest of the world will get 'pneumonia'... as foreign economies fall into difficulty, foreign demand for US assets and the USD will increase.
Both the above referenced post and aussiebear's subsequent post refer to Bloomberg stories that validate how foreign economies everywhere dependent on US consumption (directly or indirectly) will begin to unravel as the US economy slides into severe recession in 2008.
alceringa
Jan 10 2008, 10:02 AM
The hard working, disciplined Chinesse factory worker is now in charge of the world's economy.
Not the slothy, self-centered American J6P consumer.
J6P only "consumes".
He doesn't make, build, farm, mine or fish anything. He produces nothing.
He just consumes.
The disciplined Chinesse factory man is going to win the war of the world economy, not slothy J6P, the consuming, self-centered non-producer.
And the biggest problem the Chinesse factory worker has is food inflation.
The quickest/easiest solution to that is for China to export that inflation rather than absorb it.
The American consumer has screwed himself/herself because he/she can't produce.
Collapsing finacials due to liar loan fall out and soaring inflation because the Chinesse have to eat-that's what j6P going to get.
Story
aussiebear
Jan 10 2008, 11:23 AM
India's Tata Motors Unveils $2,500 CarNEW DELHI (AP) -- India's Tata Motors on Thursday unveiled its much anticipated $2,500 car, an ultra-cheap price tag that brings car ownership into the reach of tens of millions of people.
Chief U.N. climate scientist Rajendra Pachauri, who shared last year's Nobel Peace Prize, said last month that "I am having nightmares" about the prospect of the low-cost car.
While the price has created a buzz, critics say the Nano could lead to possibly millions more automobiles hitting already clogged Indian roads, adding to mounting air and noise pollution problems. Others have said Tata will have to sacrifice quality and safety standards to meet the target price.
The chairman, though, insists the car will meet safety standards and pollute even less than motorcycles, passing domestic and European emission standards and averaging about 50 miles per gallon (20 kilometers per liter).
briarberry
Jan 10 2008, 11:39 AM
If the USA catches cold

aussiebear
Jan 10 2008, 11:50 AM
QUOTE(EZ_Money @ Jan 10 2008, 05:32 PM)
IMHO, when the US 'catches cold', the rest of the world will get 'pneumonia'... as foreign economies fall into difficulty, foreign demand for US assets and the USD will increase.
Well in MY humble opinion, the US is an empire in decline, remember Rome and England? It will probably take decades but the seeds have been sown.
aussiebear
Jan 10 2008, 12:26 PM
Bank of England Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate at 5.5%Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged today as policy makers assessed the effects of last month's reduction on the economy.
Economists predict the Bank of England will wait until next month before lowering rates again as banks rein in lending, damping consumer spending and deepening a slowdown in the housing market.
aussiebear
Jan 10 2008, 12:29 PM
German Unions, Eying `Mega-Wage Year,' Begin Talks Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- German public workers seeking the biggest pay raise in 16 years enter talks with government mediators today, rejecting business pleas for ``measured'' wage claims to avoid undermining the economy.
Ver.di, Germany's second-biggest labor union, wants 8 percent more pay for about 1.3 million workers on federal and local government payrolls, the biggest wage demand since 1992. With steel workers also looking for 8 percent and chemical staff seeking a 7 percent raise, 2008 will be a ``mega-wage year,'' said Berthold Huber, head of IG Metall, Germany's largest union.
``The mood among workers is explosive,'' Ver.di chairman Frank Bsirske told reporters today in Potsdam, near Berlin, before going into the talks. ``We are willing and able to strike at any time. At the end of this wage round what matters is people will have noticeably more pay in their pockets.''
aussiebear
Jan 10 2008, 12:49 PM
A bit more on the subject, "The American Consumer: a legend
only in his own mind"
Consumer tidal wave on the way: China's middle class"But now, say business analysts and economists, China is poised for a consumer-products revolution. Whereas the burgeoning elite in China's major industrial cities has spent the last several years cashing in on an export boom, an emerging middle class in the country's interior has only recently begun to see the fruits of economic liberalization. As government policies shift to encourage consumer spending, businessmen may finally realize their fantasies of an enormous, untapped consumer marketing frontier.
"We have to increase the number of people with a microwave oven from 200 million to 1.2 billion," says Ms. Chen, a gleam in her eye as she measures the prospect. "That's where our future lies." [exactly how many microwaves are there in the US? not 1.2 billion that's for sure]
"
At the moment, China's consumer economy is about the size of Italy's, but in two years' time it is going to start adding an Italy every year," says Mr. Grant, noting that while the average Italian spends $11,511 on consumer goods each year to China's $543, the middle kingdom's enormous population makes up for the difference.
...and so on...
briarberry
Jan 10 2008, 01:00 PM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc on Thursday reported a 2.4 percent rise in December sales at U.S. stores open at least a year, helped by strong sales of food.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWNAS611420080110(no mention of food price inflation)
hokahay
Jan 10 2008, 01:08 PM
QUOTE(aussiebear @ Jan 10 2008, 06:50 AM)
Well in MY humble opinion, the US is an empire in decline, remember Rome and England? It will probably take decades but the seeds have been sown.

More opinion on that thought may be found here:
http://survivingpeakoil.com/article.php?id=soviet_lessons
itiswhatitis
Jan 10 2008, 01:28 PM
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jan 10 2008, 09:00 AM)
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc on Thursday reported a 2.4 percent rise in December sales at U.S. stores open at least a year, helped by strong sales of food.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWNAS611420080110(no mention of food price inflation)
Does this mean that Whole Foods and other pricey places are losing their customer base for those seeking less expensive options? Me think so...
DrStool
Jan 10 2008, 01:51 PM
I've never seen things as deathly quiet as they were on M2M last night. To me that suggests more downside ahead. A lot more.
Anchors away!
briarberry
Jan 10 2008, 01:53 PM
cheese prices in Japan (they're always claiming to have low/no inflation)...
From The TimesJanuary 10, 2008
Japan’s Cheese Cake Factory forced to close by churning price of milk
Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent
Japan’s biggest chain of cheesecake restaurants has collapsed with huge debts as East Asian dairies try to cope with the soaring cost of milk.
The collapse of the Tokyo-based Cheese Cake Factory (CCF) chain makes it the first big victim of a predicament that analysts believe will get worse through 2008.
Buckling under 1.3 billion yen (£6 million) in debts, CCF was forced to close its doors because the price that it pays for cheese has almost doubled in a year.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3162457.ece
hokahay
Jan 10 2008, 01:53 PM
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jan 10 2008, 08:51 AM)
I've never seen things as deathly quiet as they were on M2M last night. To me that suggests more downside ahead. A lot more.
Anchors away!
I was starting to wonder if this thing was plugged in and turned on!
fanatic
Jan 10 2008, 01:54 PM
This, I believe, will be setting up for a real firestorm--if Congress gets involved:
Citi, Merrill, in talks for more foreign capital
Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are in talks to receive additional capital infusions from investors, primarily foreign governments, after recently raising billions of dollars from outside investors, reports the Wall Street Journal. Merrill is aiming for $3bn-$4bn, much of it from a Middle Eastern government investment fund. Citi could get as much as $10bn, most likely all from foreign governments. Both Citi and Merrill are scrambling to nail down the details before they report earnings next week that are expected to include additional losses related to mortgage-related investments, and could reach as much as $25bn combined. Already, foreign governments have invested about $27bn in Merrill, Citi, UBS and Morgan Stanley. The new investments are sure to complicate the so-far successful efforts of Wall Street firms to keep these purchases below the Washington radar screen, notes the Journal. Multiple investments from government funds will get closer scrutiny from regulators for signs the funds could work together and exercise control.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/10...merrill-in-talk
potatohead
Jan 10 2008, 02:16 PM
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jan 10 2008, 07:51 AM)
I've never seen things as deathly quiet as they were on M2M last night. To me that suggests more downside ahead. A lot more.
Anchors away!
From Carl Futia........
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1391 and have brought my stop up to 1383 and am working it as I write this. The positive divergences I see in the advancing issues numbers are telling me that a big advance is underway.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
ChicagoBear
Jan 10 2008, 02:17 PM
Normally when I see a day like yesterday it means the brakes went on and we are about to bottom. Upside reversals a/o churning when volume explodes is a great indicator for trend changes. 3/14/07 and 8/16/07 on the SP are good examples. This may be the case this time.
However, from today's IBD newspaper:
"...the Nasdaq's nine biggest price percentage gains in its history all occurred during the bear market of 2000 to 2003. During that time, the major indexes would often reel off a string of losses, rebound briefly, and then skid lower."
While I don't want to throw caution to the wind, I think trying to hold tight to your shorts right now could really pay off. If this is the first leg of a bear market (and I think it is), then we should have a lot more to go on the downside and we can expect it to be a wild ride.
There is going to be a fine line here between having balls of steel and being an idiot. Better put-on your kevlar jock straps!
I_Am_Madness
Jan 10 2008, 02:19 PM
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jan 10 2008, 09:16 AM)
From Carl Futia........
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1391 and have brought my stop up to 1383 and am working it as I write this. The positive divergences I see in the advancing issues numbers are telling me that a big advance is underway.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/LOL
I'll give him credit for nailing yesterday's move. It's obvious he didn't take the gains since he's looking for a big advance to new highs.
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:19 PM
Watching FXI 170 level today...if that gives way, we may on the verge of Global chaos...
I_Am_Madness
Jan 10 2008, 02:20 PM
QUOTE(ChicagoBear @ Jan 10 2008, 09:17 AM)
Normally when I see a day like yesterday it means the brakes went on and we are about to bottom. Upside reversals a/o churning when volume explodes is a great indicator for trend changes. 3/14/07 and 8/16/07 on the SP are good examples. This may be the case this time.
However, from today's IBD newspaper:
"...the Nasdaq's nine biggest price percentage gains in its history all occurred during the bear market of 2000 to 2003. During that time, the major indexes would often reel off a string of losses, rebound briefly, and then skid lower."
While I don't want to throw caution to the wind, I think trying to hold tight to your shorts right now could really pay off. If this is the first leg of a bear market (and I think it is), then we should have a lot more to go on the downside and we can expect it to be a wild ride.
There is going to be a fine line here between having balls of steel and being an idiot. Better put-on your kevlar jock straps!
Can't argue with that. Just make sure you know where to draw your line and exit.
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:21 PM
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jan 10 2008, 08:19 AM)
LOL
I'll give him credit for nailing yesterday's move. It's obvious he didn't take the gains since he's looking for a big advance to new highs.
Yep, always one last bounce before big crashes...if we take out yesterday's low
LOBIf we don't, then bears need to exercise extreme caution...
Today could be for all da marbles....
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:23 PM
Swiss Franc tryin to bust outta bull flag here...
Yen in similar config
ChicagoBear
Jan 10 2008, 02:23 PM
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jan 10 2008, 09:16 AM)
From Carl Futia........
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1391 and have brought my stop up to 1383 and am working it as I write this. The positive divergences I see in the advancing issues numbers are telling me that a big advance is underway.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/WTF?
Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks yesterday on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. He's on the wrong side of that divergence! Yesterday's ramp was pumped into selective names. Good luck to Carl.
I_Am_Madness
Jan 10 2008, 02:24 PM
Check out this double top head and shoulder action on PCU. Who's going to want all those copper if we get into a recession.
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:25 PM
Swissy starting to move out
Peek Paper
Jan 10 2008, 02:25 PM
QUOTE(ChicagoBear @ Jan 10 2008, 09:17 AM)
There is going to be a fine line here between having balls of steel and being an idiot. Better put-on your kevlar jock straps!
How about the balls of an idiot?
We don't get no respect ...
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:26 PM
Euro back above 1.47...
I got this bad feelin' about Uncle Buck
potatohead
Jan 10 2008, 02:27 PM
1300 est Fed Chmn Bernanke speaks on "Financial Markets, the
Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy" in Washington
I_Am_Madness
Jan 10 2008, 02:28 PM
I doubt they'll give us another chance at an entry at 200.
I_Am_Madness
Jan 10 2008, 02:29 PM
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jan 10 2008, 09:27 AM)
1300 est Fed Chmn Bernanke speaks on "Financial Markets, the
Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy" in Washington
Oh.....Ben is speaking today. Why do i get this feeling the whole "rate" cut hint stuff is going to hit the press over the next few days.
DrStool
Jan 10 2008, 02:35 PM
In spite of the opening downtick, 3 and 5 day cycle indicators on spx and dow remain on the buy side for now. QQQQ 3 day cycle indicators have edged to sell side. 5 day on the cusp.
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:36 PM
IF we go back below that pivot line on FXI.....................
ChicagoBear
Jan 10 2008, 02:40 PM
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jan 10 2008, 09:24 AM)
Check out this double top head and shoulder action on PCU. Who's going to want all those copper if we get into a recession.
Same for iron ore and nickel.
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:40 PM
If that trendline goes on EEM.......GIT OUT!
potatohead
Jan 10 2008, 02:41 PM
DJ Fed Accepts $9 Bln In 7-Day RPs
Type of transaction: 7-Day RPs
Total accepted: $9 Bln
Total submitted: $75.3 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.108 Bln
Total submitted: $28.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.29%
Weighted Average: 4.29%
High-rate submitted: 4.29%
Low-rate submitted: 4.2%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $5.122 Bln
Total submitted: $23.2 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.06%
Weighted Average: 4.07%
High-rate submitted: 4.1%
Low-rate submitted: 3.8%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $2.77 Bln
Total submitted: $23.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.32%
Weighted Average: 4.32%
High-rate submitted: 4.32%
Low-rate submitted: 4.25%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
briarberry
Jan 10 2008, 02:44 PM
US retail, results not so good so far...
About two-thirds of 29 retailers to have reported sales results missed forecast, according to Thomson Financial.
No. 1 retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and No. 1 wholesale club Costco Wholesale Corp. were rare bright spots, benefiting from budget-conscious consumers seeking bargain electronics and buying bulk-food items.
(even the good results are suspect)
Costco Wholesale Corp. said Thursday its December sales at stores open at least one year rose 7%. Sales of gasoline, where prices shot up 27% in the five-week period, benefited Costco. Analysts, on average, had expected its same-store sales to rise 5.7%, according to Thomson Financial.
ATLANTA, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Retailer Kohl's Corp on Thursday reported an 11.4 percent drop in December sales at stores open at least a year and cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast.
NEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - AnnTaylor Stores Corp cut its full-year profit forecast on Thursday, after December same-store sales fell a worse-than-expected 9.4 percent, hurt by declines at both its namesake and LOFT chains
CHICAGO, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Barnes & Noble Inc on Thursday reported a 0.4 percent decline in sales at stores open at least a year during the nine-week holiday selling season as recorded music sales fell significantly below expectations.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Discount retailer Target Corp on Thursday said December sales at stores open at least a year rose 0.6 percent, adjusted for a calendar shift.
Macy's posted a 7.9 percent drop in same-store sales, worse than the 6.5 percent decline anticipated. For the November-December period combined, Macy's same-store sales were down 1.1 percent.
Maternity apparel retailer Mothers Work Inc. reported that same-store sales fell 7.6 percent, worse than the 0.5 percent analyst estimate.
Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. posted a 2.8 percent decline in same-store sales, a little bit better than the 3.1 percent forecast.
Upscale department store retailer Nordstrom Inc. reported that same-store sales fell 4 percent, slightly beating expectations for a 4.2 percent decline.
Limited posted a 8 percent drop in same-store sales, worse than the 4 percent Wall Street expected. Based on weak sales, it said it is likely that fourth-quarter earnings will fall toward the low-to-midpoint of its previously announced projections.
Men's Wearhouse slashed its fourth-quarter profit by more than half after "substantially lower traffic levels" at all of its stores led to a sales miss.
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:44 PM
EURO.......................
I_Am_Madness
Jan 10 2008, 02:46 PM
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Jan 10 2008, 09:44 AM)
EURO.......................
ECB left rates along...
There's talk of 50 basis in 2 weeks here. hmm...
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:47 PM
Gold power reverse........
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:51 PM
gold building monster power candle on the hourly chart.....
potatohead
Jan 10 2008, 02:51 PM
DJ Fed Accepts $6 Bln In Overnight RPs
Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $51.7 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.345 Bln
Total submitted: $33.15 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.31%
Weighted Average: 4.31%
High-rate submitted: 4.32%
Low-rate submitted: 4.2%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.655 Bln
Total submitted: $12.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.19%
Weighted Average: 4.24%
High-rate submitted: 4.25%
Low-rate submitted: 4%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $1 Bln
Total submitted: $6.25 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.35%
Weighted Average: 4.35%
High-rate submitted: 4.35%
Low-rate submitted: 4.28%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:53 PM
Euro power move off the hourly 900...this is how the big moves begin....above 1.48 and no lookin' back....
should it fail here, and take out the hourly 900, that would be extremely bearish...we should know either way real soon
K Wave Rider
Jan 10 2008, 02:56 PM
YM 12675 area is the big pivot now.....
DrStool
Jan 10 2008, 02:56 PM
spx and dow pulled back to and bounced from their 3 day cycle MAs now flat at 12640 and 1395.63.
qqqq oscillating around flat 5 day cycle MA at 47.47. 3 day is above it at 47.65.
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