Well, now that I have covered all the shorts in the WSE Pro ETF Chart Picks, the market is now free to crash.

But I hope it gives us time to load up again first.

Holding my ammo... will wait for the 20DMA on the indecies to reload

Bears.....try to ignore the bull....

[attachmentid=94539]

Futures plunging faster than you can hit the flush button.

Imagine 'owning' a house in one of these developments..aye carumba!!

Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lennar Corp.'s November sale of 11,000 properties in eight states set a price that may mark the bottom for the U.S. housing market: 40 cents on the dollar.

That's how much Morgan Stanley Real Estate paid for an 80 percent stake in the 32 communities, 60 percent less than the price at which the properties were valued just two months earlier. That's also what some investors say they would pay for distressed land, condominiums, homes and whole developments, whether it's now or later this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206....Jww&refer=home

I'm seeing green but I've got a 20 min delay....

and apparently we won't escape the effects of the US recession regardless of what our newly appointed Treasurer says.

If our housing market falls anywhere near the falls that the US has experienced, we will have a depression in OZ.

The debt levels here are unprecedented.

Recession will hit Australia, says Goldman

INVESTMENT giant Goldman Sachs has downgraded its forecast for Australia's economic growth by almost $100 billion over two years. Goldman Sachs is also the second Wall Street bank in a week to warn of an impending US recession.

It said the latest figures indicated "recession has now arrived, or will very shortly". Economists at Merrill Lynch warned clients on Monday of a 100% likelihood that the US would fall into recession within a year.

http://business.theage.com.au/recession-wi...80110-1lb2.html

Oops...my bad....I see now!

Yesterday's rally off the lows ended with a 50% retracement in the early morning.

I wonder if that was it in AH for this pullback.

Appears AmEx borrowers strained as well.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080110/amex_warning.html?.v=1

440 million charge.
That isn't so bad.

I am, bulz!!!! there's no, ReCESSION. an I wannatrade ,the BIGG buy but, this BUTTON not working

My employer laid a huge turd in the bowl and the stock price crashed today. I am underwater on all my options.

Gary Dvorchak
Electronics For Imaging - A Different Kind of Tell
1/9/2008 5:01 PM EST
MW and AEO will steal the headlines tonight, creating consternation about the consumer
(and rightly so!), but another economic tell reared its negative head too. Electronics
For Imaging (EFII), a small tech company, preannounced pretty ugly results, indicating
Q4 EPS would come in at barely over half the consensus.

I've followed EFII since the early 1990s, and I will tell you, without fail
EFII blows up before significant economic slowdowns. The first couple times I didn't
believe it, but they are leveraged to very economically sensitive spending, and
slowdowns just seem to show up early in their numbers.

sorry doc no link for that.

Sorry to hear the news, MD

Sympathies, MD.

Sorry to hear that MD.
Any SEC rules and regulation that prevents you from selling call options or buy put options against it as a hedge?

No problem, but what was the source?

I had extended comments on this in this morning's IDS thread. In essence, there's less here than meets the eye. From the information in the article, we really have no clue whatsoever what the actual discount from market value was. There's a huge difference between Total Sellout Value and Market Value of the property. Could be that there really is a discount, or could be that there's no discount whatsoever. We really don't know who the bagholder is in this deal. A 60% discount from Total Sellout may, in fact, be market value. A 60% discount from market value would be an impossible deal from the standpoint of the seller's lenders. They just wouldn't allow it. Unless of course Morgan was the lender, which would throw the deal into a whole different light. I am especially suspicious of the fact that it was an 80% interest. This may very well have been the lender's position.

In short, this article is a bunch of meaningless media pap. I'd like to investigate the facts and tell you what it really means, but I just don't have time.

Leaving tomorrow to go back to FL.

by options I meant all my employee stock options, which are priced at $16/share.

Just heard that all discretionary spending has been completely slashed for Q1. EFII also announced a 5% headcount reduction, total employee base is 2,000.

Last month all systems were go and management was very optimistic. We had asked upper management about the possibility of recession and the impact that would have on the business and we were basically told to not listen to the conspiracy theories and bears. Funny.

My department is slashing all spending in an effort to avoid headcount reductions.

The only problem I see in this is, what will happen two quarters from now when the economy is in even worse condition?

Sorry, I had clipped that out. It was from thestreet.com

Beats me, I am not smart enough to play with options.

That sucks.

Look for this pattern to repeat itself literally hundreds of times with rutty components.

Cramer's monoloque today was very interesting. He said it was shades of 1990 which I remember well. I thought C was going broke at under $2/share split adjusted..
Then the fed started cutting interest rates and it went up 20x.
Of course he said if Helo Ben had done what he screamed for in August things wouldn't be so bad now, but better late than never and Ben is getting the picture now. Apparently he is expecting a cut ofa minimum of 50 bps.
He thought that BAC taking over CFC was great since he assumed there is an agreement for the FED to assume some of the bad loands like in 90.
He also said that WM would be the next takeover target. He also said don't buy the common, but the preferred.
That ought to be great for gold and the miners.

I agree with you on both counts.

IDSers weren't the only ones who noted the Helo Ben's promise to cut interest rates at least 50 bps got to Da Boyz even before Ben's lips began to move.


Thursday, January 10, 2008
Bernanke The Tool, And More "Leaks"

Amazing stuff today....

BenDover Bernanke basically promises the market 50 bips.

But the story wasn't his speech. It was the early break of the embargo ONCE AGAIN to certain "favored" market participants who put on trades AHEAD OF THE RELEASE, which itself was made BEFORE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE DONE.

Again - WHERE ARE THE COPS?

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

I'm surprised GG is still trading under 50 with gold almost at $900.

Butt aSS expected, even at this level there is little excitement for gold. Everyone that missed the rally is certain it will end soon. Like they were at $500, $600, $700, and $800.

I expect $1,111 by end of 2008, minimum.

right on schedule, no surprise here at all

those of us who've been reamed by literally dozens of scam week option jams smelled another gov't goose angle comin' yesturday, covered and donged

nuthin' new under the sun, it's just that time of the month again

the reamin' train is buildin' up steam fer opex next Friday

all aboard

dong with impunity

like I said yesturday

pump it up

option jam

Probably too busy making sure Martha Stewart isn't sneaking in a trade. She's real sneaky ya know.


I like the way the guy in the link thinks. Excuse me while I adjust my AFDB. I hope it starts working. cuz the stinky piles are multiplying fast.

wow, what a chart

warning shank thru the 50/200 crossover in October

creepin' below the 50 fer months

now, the finisher shank part II

that stock is cheap and ripe fer dongin'

tradin' at book value

they're givin' it away

Jan '09 12.50 calls closed at 2.50, seems like a good deal

wonder if I can git 'em even a little cheaper if I wait

night session Feb Gold 899.9

The ords is having trouble getting the rallies to stick.

It may be starting to dawn on some folks that we are not immune from the mess in the US.

We have had a huge run up over the past few years.

upside down that's...... rut row George! You better put your AFDB on with extra tape too.



Good news is that there is a wiki!

http://wiki.newspeakdictionary.com/wiki/Ca...:Newspeak_words

One of these days I am going to figure it out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four
Not my latest projection for the SPY's



In other news today all the major ISPs are wanting to sniff the packets for "content".

http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/01/10/att-n...tect-copyright/

Doc. If I am getting outa line let me know. But, options jams are one thing.......


hahahaha, might have to change my handle to "Winston".

What is especially concerning is all these Option ARM reamsets in 2010 and 2011.

Most of these homoaners are selecting the minimum payments (negatively amortizing) and many homoaners will be upside down when the ARM reamsets.

And we still have all those resets in 2008 to get through.

It's only january. The FED won't have anything left to panic with in 2010.

They don't call it Shank Diego fer nuthin'

CONdo Unit No. 1703 sold last month as a bank-owned property for $595,000
That same unit sold in June 2005 for $983,000. That's a 40 percent difference.

40% haircut?

is that a lot?

oh, I guess he made it up in positive $caSShflow while holding it fer 30 months

NOT

Laying in my hospital bed this morning waiting for my screening colonscopy I watched the BB speech and the reaction later on some program called street something, anyway, Merrill and Citi are out hunting new money to help paper over more huge losses and CFC a company without a business model but lots of debt and bad paper is going BK and Mr. BB with a straight face stated that the banking industry was in good shape. He also keeps talking about inflation expectations but never actual inflation, if inflation expections get out of hand well that might be a problem otherwise nothing to worry about. Not one word about the falling dollar or lower purchasing power for basic food and energy.
The weird Wall Street crowd on aftwerwards was even worse, all they could talk about was how cheap stocks were at this time blah blah...
I got the feeling the financial world was in much worse shape then I could imagine!

60% haircut? is that a lot?

Lennar's New Homes Fetch 60% Less as U.S. Market Slump Deepens
"They sold land at 40 cents on the dollar and they're happy to get it,'' Bryan said. "The value of land is eroding by the minute.''

It looks like a Polish Military barracks!

Probably a selling point!

Faced with foreclosure on her Russellville, Indiana home, Christina Snyder allegedly concocted the kind of plan that now has insurance executives on edge.

According to the county prosecutor, the 31-year-old Snyder allegedly offered to pay a neighbor $5,000 to help her burn down her house and make it look like a botched rape attempt - all in order to claim $80,000 in insurance money. Snyder wanted the neighbor to bind her hands in duct tape, write "whore" on her shirt, and then help her escape once the blaze was set, the prosecutor says. The neighbor demurred, instead reporting Snyder to police.

that's what ya git fer bein' cheap.....shoulda offered $40,000 (50/50 split)

imagine the poor smucks who paid top dollar for a house in a Lennar development.

You would be vomiting blood as you make mortgage payments on a house worth 50% less than you paid for it.

Even if you had a good job and could afford your mortgage, you would be filthy on these bastards.

Holy Crap! Now I know why this is the Anals of Stock Proctology!

Hope the results of the screening are good news and all is well.

I have a feeling these are the proles that B-52 Ben et al are volunteering to "help out" with 'Hope now". hahaha. newspeak at it's best.

I was watching Crapvision at the end of the day and after about an hour I realized that all the BAC-CFC hoopla is nothing more than a RUMOR of talks of a buyout. That's is not the same as an actual deal.

To me, this doesn't pass the chuckle test. Why would BAC, one of the few big bonkers that may be strong enough to survive the current situation, even consider the annexation of a cur like CFC? What member of the BAC board would want to have to answer for this travesty this time next year?

I don't get it. But what other possible explanation could there be?


[attachmentid=94548]

Shorty, you did it again.

I suspect that there are plenty of folks who are not in any kind of financial pressure,but just happen to own one of these houses that have plunged in value.

You may have decided that this is where you intend to live the rest of your life and can easily afford the mortgage,but you will be as surly as shit for years.

Your whole life will take on a horrible bitter feel.

You will become known as a property curmudgeon.

it is a bit like being a full time bear...

According to Cramer, the Feds are going to care of the bad paper. WTF, over

the 'warren buffet is gonna buy the company' rumour is so last year.

Hey Bris,

I hope you have full-time bear positions on the ASX200. It's vomiting blood right now, like it doesn't believe the bonerizing activities on wall street. All Ords is -1.2% now, getting closer to the magic 6000 level. Somebody is liquidating quietly.

One of the peculiar aspects of real estate as an asset class is it's fixed location. And in this case it's location in a neighborhood full of other 'owners' that are similarly stuck in a big way.

The human cost of all this will be staggering.