Closed





Closed







http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Initially it looked like the market might hold up but then came the swoosh. All Ords -1.3%, all sectors red with IT once again leading the way, -3.1% followed by Energy -2%. Metals & Mining is down the least, -0.6%.

BHP -0.3% and RIO -1.4% are holding back the mining sector. Golds are up, Newcrest and Newmont both +1.7% and Lihir +0.8%.

Oils are all down: Woodside -1.4%, Santos and Caltex -0.5%.

Not exactly the definition of an exciting day. All Ords managed to drag itself off the intraday lows to close -0.2%. A few sectors turned green with only Consumer Staples showing a gain worth noting, +1.4%. IT, -2.4%, continued to lead on the downside and Property Trusts moved into the next slot, -1.2%.

The big miners had a spell in the green but couldn't hold it: BHP -0.2%, RIO -0.5%. Golds continued to do reasonably well: Newcrest +1.3%, Newmont +3.2% and Lihir +1%. Juniors mostly down.

The major oils closed up: Woodside +0.5%, Santos +0.4% and Caltex +1%.

Asia mixed: Taiwan +1.8%, Sth Korea -1.3%, Honkers and India flat, Singers and Nikkers closed for the day.


On to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

New Zealand's Record-High Interest Rate Damps Housing

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's home-building approvals fell in November and home prices rose the least in nine months, adding to signs record-high interest rates are damping demand for property.

Permits granted to build new houses and apartments slipped 0.1 percent from October, the third straight decline, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington today. House prices rose 10 percent in December from a year earlier, according to Quotable Value New Zealand Ltd., a government valuation agency.

Australia's Job Advertisements Climb 7.1% to Record

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's job-vacancy advertisements surged to a record in December, suggesting a labor shortage that has fueled wage inflation is worsening.

Jobs advertised in newspapers and on the Internet climbed 7.1 percent from November to an average 274,653 a week, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in Melbourne today. Advertisements soared 31 percent from a year ago.

Companies including Rio Tinto Group are hiring more workers as they expand operations to meet Chinese demand for raw materials, pushing Australia's unemployment down to the lowest in more than three decades. Jobs growth may drive a pickup in wages, increasing pressure on the nation's central bank to raise interest rates to cool inflation.

Futes up moderately here in the a.m. This could be a wonderful dump today with earnings on tap.

2008 is going to be the year they unleash 401(k)'s without penalties. But it will backfire as Joe won't be spending it on consumer goods...he will be using it to make ends meet.

Good Morning!

We'll be hitting the road this AM for my hometown, Philly, where we visit with my relatives for a few hours, but will wait until 9AM for the rush here in Montreal to subside. This city has among the worst traffic I have seen anywhere including NY and DC.

Tomorrow, we'll again leave Philly after the rush hour, and head for the Autotrain in suburban DC. This year we are starting a new tradition. We'll be stopping at Trader Joes in Springfield Va to pick up a couple cases of Two Buck Chuck to take home with us, one for my cousins in St. Augustine, and the other for us. We'll be back home in sunny South FLA Wednesday PM, when I will get right to work posting the market update for after the close Wednesday. Should be an interesting report.

I love these trips. It's a long time to spend in the car, but it's really a nice ride, and getting to spend time to stop and hold the kids close to your heart and then visit with beloved family members I grew up with is the sweetest pleasure in life. For me, these are the best vacations of all.

Of course I am always a bit sad to leave our quiet country lane to head back to the hustle and bustle of life in South Florida, but the vision of returning in the spring to the land and home up north that I have come to love so much, renews that little thrill of anticipation that we get when looking forward to something we love.

The forecast for the trip calls for snow all the way down from here through the Adirondacks and Catskills. It will probably take us an hour or two longer than usual, but seeing the beauty of the mountains covered in white will be a new experience. I am looking forward to. Our car, an Acura RDX with electronic 4 wheel drive, outfitted with extreme snow tires, has handled ice and snow covered roads with absolute aplomb. A great winter car indeed, in addition to being a hoot to drive on dry roads when you can really air out the turbo!

I'll be logging on again tonight. Have a fun day today! And remember to annoint someone to open M2M this afternoon.

Au Revior! I'll see ya later!

Love,

Doc

From InteractiveBrokers' direct bulletin (no link available):


Interactive Brokers Bulletin Board

To GLOBEX traders:
Mon Jan 14 07:07:50 2008 EST

UPDATE:

GLOBEX is currently reviewing future option trades on the equity index futures which occurred earlier this morning, and in particular, trades done between 01:01 and 01:05 Chicago time which resulted in a large number of trade cancellations in the equity index futures (NQ, YM, ER, SP, ES, ND, ZD, DD, ER2, EMD). The clients affected by these cancellations have been informed directly by bulletin and the trades have been removed.

Check out this 100 point 5 minute candle in overnight action.
They ran all the stops and jammed it right back up.

MEW, I guess finally it must be getting harder to get home loans to pay off credit cards...


Americans Cut Back Sharply on Spending

At the same time, the number of overdue payments on American Express cards is surging, the company said — and this among well-heeled cardholders who charge up to $12,000 a year, on average, on each card. American Express has called some cardholders in the last few weeks to ask if they will have trouble paying their bills.

“We are seeing a correlation with housing prices,” said Michael O’Neill, a spokesman for American Express. “The falloff in spending is everywhere in the country, but it is greatest in those areas like south Florida and California, where home prices have fallen the most.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/business...=2&ref=business


LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Sears Holdings Corp. warned on Monday that fourth-quarter earnings per share may fall as much as 51% from last year's levels.

Not a lot of followthrough to the morning futures ramp. Financials, as judged by SKF, are continuing down despite the hoopla. If they're depending on tech to carry this, they're using up their best stuff with IBM's earnings surprise ( due mainly to weak dooler ), Apple's big show kicking off this week, CES afterglow, etc...


I don't quite get the weak follow-up by gold. I sold my GG apr 30 calls this morning.


Have a good scam week everyone.

Getting very close for re-entering my GS puts.

I think we're going up the next few days.... Things started to change there on Friday...

[attachmentid=94615]

DJ Fed Accepts $1.75 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $1.75 Bln
Total submitted: $63.5 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.75 Bln
Total submitted: $33.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.35%
Weighted Average: 4.35%
High-rate submitted: 4.35%
Low-rate submitted: 4.2%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $7.95 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.11%
Low-rate submitted: 3.9%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $22.25 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.36%
Low-rate submitted: 4.3%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

I still can't decode this thing. Anyone know where that nets out as an add or drain.

TIA.

Slap,

Slosh Report

Edit: It's a drain of $1.5 B for today, unless you include Treasury action, in which case it's an add of $5.1 B.

Edit #2: I think there's also the TAF scheduled for today as well...

Bucky looking weak. Didn't hold local closing low and longterm MACD has crossed to the downside as bond yields continue down. I may look to reenter some miner positions if it doesn't turn back up quickly.

I also harvested my SAKS (sks) short from 21 this morning as it tagged 15, the rough McHuge target.

Big down day with no volume prior to scam week should always raise a red flag.

[attachmentid=94618]





I'm with you guys. There were 3 upside reversals last week signaling that the brakes went on. Volume fell on Friday's down day which to me reflects just some residual selling that needed to burn off before the market can move higher. Notice on the chart the volume on the 3 upside reversals is greater than the volume on the 3 most recent down days. Buying pressure is greater. Also, I think the chart of the SP500 is now showing a downtrend channel. If that channel holds, then we should bounce from here. If the pattern plays out, watch to short again anywhere from 1452 (LeeWhee) - 1480.

Citigroup CEO To Announce Layoffs Of 17,000-24,000 - Crapvision
Last update: 1/14/2008 11:13:16 AM(MORE TO FOLLOW)
Dow Jones Newswires

24,000 - Is that a lot?
Throw customer service out the window.

Maybe now I and some of my clients will not be hassled by Citi's cold credit card calls and other predatory practices.

This is turning out to be the slowest day I can ever remember on IDS.

Worth noting - while we are anticipating a bounce here, the Fed is still draining and Doc's FCB indicator has turned to a sell. When both are pulling back together, the effect can be a serious impairment. The taffy money doesn't hit the street until it settles on Thursday. And besdies the fact that I think Doc has pointed out the TAF was drained pre-emptively through open market operations, that money is not going to the primary dealers (who would normally be the ones to pump into the markets). It is going to other financial oganizations that need the loans just to shore up their balance sheets. I don't think the taffy is finding its way into the stock market.
I think any bounce here might be short-lived (pun intended).

Same thing on M2M last night. We must be near a major top.

I thought it was because our MVP was on the sidelines

More than one are missing.

I didn't know that Tom Brady was a stoolie!

Wouldn't a partial explanation of the relatively underpopulated stool be the total devotion of the USA to the Cavalcade of pigskineers????

Flying through the air with the amazing ease of the flying young man on the oscillating trapeze, a diversion bordering on the obsessive, might be an additional motivation towards avoiding the sorrowful tales of economic woe...

beardrech... :ph34r:If you're impoverished there's something joyful about witnessing multi-millionaires crippling themselves left and right...Its almost as exhilerating as watching a racing car fly headlong and out of control smashing into a concrete wall ,the parts flying in all directions, the exploding farragoe including both a loose liver and spleen..

My goodness what hath God wrought???

My thoughts exactly.

Like Willie Sutton going where the money is I suspect that the major portion of te World's wealth lies within millions and millions of overstuffed mattresses.


beardrech--BD Why do you need a raise???

---My spinal column cant get used to $$USD's; Euros are better soporifics..and besides, so much bending and scraping for Yen & Renminbi are giving many amerikans like myself,hyper-scholiosis...

Bloombox: "Deutsch Bank CEO says housing crisis may not be over." That's why he gets the big bucks.

The problem is that a pretty big chunk was apparently stowed into water mattresses.

That's the way it feels. This is some lame ass action and internals are beginning to weaken as well.

CDE seems to be getting it's act together.



And PAAS is doing well.




BUT...




Things that make you go Hmmmmm...

True, and I doubt that IBs want to buy any more equities! I think the FED is cooperating and simply draining outstanding repos. However, I do expect massive liquidity infusion to the banks that---like you point out, will not necessarily find its way into the stock market.

Yeah, HL is lagging as well. I think of HL and SLW as the smarter more cautious miner money and still feel there is larger risk to the downside for the miners here. I put a short on cde an hour ago with a tight stop for some scalp action. No action at all yet though.

Lack of follow-through (so far, anyway) in this morning's 'pop' is perhaps a result of Market's wariness of probable (?) NASTY retail and other numbers tomorrow through Friday.

Bad retail numbers may provide the catalyst for a healthy downhill stampede Tuesday (and Wednesday).

How far might prices fall? Who knows...

At any rate, a severe slide over one or two days would give Benny and the Boys at the Fed perfect 'cover' for an emergency rate cut, perhaps resulting in a fierce rally into OpEx.

Whipsaw...

[attachmentid=94622]

Moving up from Dover Sole condition, today at 25. Note, it did not get as deeply Dover Sole as in August and November.

I was looking at the maxpain situation on the QQQQ's over the weekend and it looks like it could run up around that gap at 50 before things balance out.



Looking at the action this morning, it still looks like SARS is is the big play, and this thing isn't going up with any conviction any time soon.

I'm holding some QQQQ 48 calls that haven't made enough to pay the commission to get rid of them, so I guess I'm hedged, but this sure feels like a very weak market.

.... and just like that, the QQQQ calls are makin' some cashe.


It's gotta be 'The power of Chuck'

Suds, are you back home from the Big Apple?

Speak

Let us suppose you and I disagree about the immediate future of Silver stocks in general and CDE in particular...How would you play it both waays, and as inexpensively as possible.....

Nothing like a gedankniss experiment to idle the hours away...

beardrech Neurobiologist reccomend that people my age try to learn about things much much more complicated than they normally handle in order to take advantage of the perpetual neuroplaticity of the human brain. Use it or lose it..

Done Coxe, who has been right for 5 years on commods and the ags think that mining has become a very expensive, not very profitable, and risky investment especially in the 3rd world countries, thus bullion may actually out perform the miners this time around.

The least expensive play I'd guess, would be to buy both puts and calls for March on CDe. 55 cents a contract for mar 5 calls, and 47 cents for mar 5 puts. With stops on both at half value say, if it runs or falls very far, you should make a nice profit. I'm relatively new at options so other's feel free to chime in on a solution.

My son's mother keeps urging me to keep up with crossword puzzles for mental crispness.

An interesting piece from Eric Sprott on derivatives and counterparty risk.

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/12_2007.pdf

From cwd's article. Astounding really.

jam jam

option jam

pump it up

ride the Big Dawg and the ShowPumpers

they picked IBM this morning to be ShowPumper O' Day

they'll pick another one tomorrow

the monthly scam week option jam advertising run

like Doc says, Wall Street is in the business of distributing stock

gotta advertise to move inventory

"Wow, look at that honey, IBM is up 6 dollars! We better get in!"

"OK, I'll call Ditech."

[attachmentid=94623]

I wanted to post this chart because, its very rare to find a chart like this with weekly close and volume from that era. Note how volume increases in upward moves and then declines after periods of short explosive moves to the downside. Bear markets feed on anemic volume and any upside move not made on increasing volume is quickly corrected.

Note the volume peaks on declines during weeks of 10/31/29 and 7/22/33 of 8% and 17% respectively.

The year 1942 marked the beginning of DOW relentless ascend from 104, matching volume of what it was 20 years earlier.

You were right again Shorty.

They shook me out of my amzn shorts today. Made good money on that recently. Today I had to give a little back.