Snowstorm in the northeast. Bully seemed to like it...

Here are a couple of charts to chew on. They are up-to-date as of last week.
The first is a comparison of the DOW 1929 crash to the Nasdaq 2000 crash.
The second is the present on the Nasdaq v. the Dow in 1937
(compliments of the Chicago IBD group)
Of course, history never repeats itself, but it often ...

Looks like Doc needs to add some $99 price tags to his "Two Buck Chuck"!

http://www.news.com/8301-13580_3-9849949-39.html?tag=newsmap

That means this market will trend down for the next decade.

The scale on 1929 vs Nasdaq is inaccurate. The DOW advanced about 700% from 1915 to 1929, 54.63 to 380.33 on weekly close in 8/29.

Speak Thanx for the response on silver,Appreciate it very much..

And as a loyal infidelitous Gold shtunk I agree with your call on Big G for the following reason-

AS Gold is many things to many people--Standard of Value,Commodity,among a list of catagories too long to recite--it also serves as a "capacitor' or "reservoir" both of which smooth the flow of"current" in some sence..

By large overwhelming current.analogically, I mean the occasional violently disruptive selling that occurs from time to time.

So under he assumption we are in the naborhood of a violent downturn (notice I say assumption) there are those who are going to be glad they purchased gold for the reasons above and acting opposite to posessing it, because at the time, this group of sellers will be that portion of gold shtunks needing the cash desparately and having something salable..

In essence serving as a capacitor.

Subsequently it will bounce when everything else is descending

beardrech I do beleive in the baby and the bathwater phenomenae

OMG.

The economy is in even worse shape than I thought.

Now we have retailers giving 'pep' talks.

All we need now is for these guys to don the chicken suits and I have seen everything...

Meanwhile, economists are debating whether the United States is headed for a recession. Goldman Sachs said on Monday that it "now expects a further softening in consumption, which will likely tip the U.S. into a mild recession" during the middle of this year.

In the face of so many headwinds, Gymboree Corp's (GYMB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) CEO Matthew McCauley tried to give the crowd a pep talk during his keynote speech.

He told of a time during a high school football game when he got scared and ended up getting trampled by an opposing team member. He said his coach yelled at him, telling him to never ease up because, "when you ease up, you get hurt.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1441324320080114

Centro down another 30% today in OZ.

They bought a shitload of malls in the US right at the top of the property bubble.

They wanna hope the retailers 'pep' talks work well (and fast).

Malls will be the new ghost towns.

A capacitor or reservoir, that's it exactly! I was interested in cwd's comparisons today of the metal and miner indexes. I did up a crayon drawing just now and present for your consideration. I have been thinking of spending more time and capital on GLD because it felt like the metal was doing better than equities. But in fact, they do trade pretty much in tandem. GDX tends to overshoot thus there is more lever to it if you can grab the exact bottoms. I know that's what I do. Every once in a while, anyway.

From August, GLD looks to have completed a 5 wave up structure and I would expect either an abc or abcde correction somewhere in here to the 80-84 level then resume it's uptrend. On the weekly it appears to me that when this 5th wave finishes it will also be the terminus for wave 5 of 3, of the larger wave structure. If I'm wrong and this is my alternate count, this could be wave 5 of 5, which could entail a larger sort of correction. I'm trading both sides here but have more on the don'ts shortterm. I don't know what will happen next, just playing the %'s as I see 'em and being cautious. My new year's resolution is to keep more of what I make this year than last by taking more judicious profits instead of getting it ripped away, especially in miners.

There may come a time and it may be close where the PTB and associated Pigmen will be tooo busy saving their own booty(s) to bother helping to quash metals.

THE WORST OF THE WORST IN DECENDING ORDER

Home Builders - complete loss

Mortgage originators - complete loss

Banks - 30-50% haircut

Retailers -30% - 50% haircut

Building Materials - 30-50% haircut

I think CENTRO has it's picture in the new eCONomic DICKshunnery.

Gold appears over bought. Thinking about GDX puts. Any other ways to play a pull back?

TIA

everyone in OZ is talking about the housing affordability crisis and the resultant rental crisis.

It appears people cant afford to buy or rent a home.

something has to give.

I suspect the property market will implode under its own debt burden.

I do remember everyone talking about the water crisis in OZ,especially Queensland.

There were level 5 restrictions,talk of compulsory water tank installations,infact water tank suppliers were popping up like Starbuck stores.People were starting to panic.

Then what happened??

It started raining and hasn't bloody stopped.

Rainfall could smash records

BRISBANE has already exceeded its average January rainfall in the first two weeks of the month - as north Queensland continues to faces severe floods.

Locals in Airlie Beach in the Whitsundays are bracing for yet more heavy rain today after the monsoon conditions wreaked havoc across the region yesterday.


Brisbane has already recorded 124mm of rain in January - outstripping the monthly average for the entirety of January of 120mm.

And rain is forecast for the next six days until at least Monday of next week.

With more heavy falls, Brisbane could be on track to pass the highest recent January total of 280mm in 1995. The city received 279mm in 2004.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...753-952,00.html

Centros biggest problem is that most of their malls and shopping strips are 'b' grade.

The are anchored by cheap 'costless' chains and $1 type stores that sell absolute rubbish.

These shops selling cheap frivilous shit will be the first to go bust.

Not that it matters much as Centro is dead in the water.

Sorry, I guess I should have explained that the charts are scaled so that they both peak at the same time at 100%.
Look at the point your referencing in 1915 and then move out to where the bottom undercuts it in 1932. It is accurate.

CEF.A (CEF in Canada)

Canroys continue to show strength.

<<Mies van der Rump
post Today, 05:46 AM
Post #7

Futes up moderately here in the a.m. This could be a wonderful dump today with earnings on tap.>>

Like a modern day oracle, i am...now i remember why i position trade...yeesh.

GGP still has meat on it's bones...for now.

If you have five dollars and Chuck Norris has five dollars, Chuck Norris has more money than you.

There is no 'ctrl' button on Chuck Norris's computer. Chuck Norris is always in control.

When the Boogeyman goes to sleep every night, he checks his closet for Chuck Norris.

Chuck Norris doesn't read books. He stares them down until he gets the information he wants.

There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.

Outer space exists because it's afraid to be on the same planet with Chuck Norris.

Chuck Norris does not sleep. He waits.

http://www.chucknorrisfacts.com/

The whole Chuck Norris Internet thing is among the weirdest and funniest cultural phenomenon ever.

Future generations won't get it.

We'll not be able to explain it.

As Housing Slumps, Ream Estate Agents Quit the Business

In Cape Coral, Fla., where only 30 percent of agents sold even a single home last year, ream estate agents are "dropping out" daily, says local reamtor Ginette Young.

But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures.

"These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."

wonderful

Was looking at a long term chart of gold and noticed a decline/ consolidation from beginning of 1975 till the end of 1976. This was when the stock market started taking off after the major drop/ bottom in the 70's.
Heads up

PBT also doing well lately.

Gold bumping up against top at 910.
Bye the way www.netdania.com has made some improvements.

The Yen is really surging while the dollar continues to crumble. Whatever carry trade was or is happening in the dollar must be hitting the skids hard today. Will be watching closely!

31% of Shank MexDiego Beanie Baby Sales in December were Foreclosures
(compared to 4 percent in December 2006)

public soyvice reaminder: Limit Up is $75

temporary halt

then reamsumption of short blowouts

To me it seems sane to be cautious on gold and gold stocks, and by sane, I mean raising your stops with the trend, but leaving them loose enough for normal pullbacks. But, top calling, and selling your positions? That I don't get. I just don't get it. Whatever happened to "the trend is your friend." Whatever happened to "let your profits run?"

This is not rocket science. But some gold "timers" act like it is.

I was bearish on gold and gold stocks....

when they were going down.

When they stopped going down and turned up, I got bullish. Since they haven't stopped going up yet, I haven't turned bearish yet. I mean, at least let them form some kind of recognizable top pattern first, fergodsakes. All this top calling while this thing is still in the midst of a screaming upleg is just...

It's just...

Why, it's downright Moranick!

aGreed

dong or wrong

heh heh. I am feeling a little sheepish here. I just looked at the list of longs in the WSE Pro Precious Metals report and about 70% of them hit their upside price projections today. That would close those picks out. So either I didn't raise the projections fast enough, or maybe they are closing in on a short term peak. In the meantime, the first thing I will do when I post the next report on Thursday morning will be to look for any obvious re entry candidates. I added one in the report I posted Saturday. Admittedly, the pickens are gettin slimmer, but a pullback now should set up a whole bunch of new candidates. Unless of course intermediate indicators start throwing off sell signals. When that happens, I retreat to the sidelines to count my winnings until the next attractive setup presents itself.

Darn it Doc, I just got through a thorough soul searching self assessment and newfound realization that I wasn't Chuck Norris, and I shouldn't be trying to roundhouse time the market, and maybe I should be more willing to carry on with a trade, and then you write that last post, and now, well, maybe I'll just have a beer.

But seriously, it's scam week and I was way overweight on GG with stock and riding some call options, and I had a great run so I took profits in my IRAs and sold the options.

In my regular accounts I try to nurse stocks through to the long-term tax advantages you get for holding for a year or more and I still have all of that..

I did pick up some of the miner you added last week.

Hope your travels are going well.

LOA??

Buyers Will Prevail
by Mike Paulenoff


Tuesday morning ahead of the open, Citigroup © reports earnings, which needless to say, could be problematic for the company, the financial sector, and for the entire market.

On the other hand, based purely on my technical work, C is at or is very near to a major upside pivot reversal from within the 26.00-28.00 price zone. The bank will have to produce disastrous results acutely worse than the write-downs and losses currently built into the price. When I juxtapose the chart of C with the pending news, my conclusion is that a falling price from here will be subject to the "beachball effect," which means that a negative price reaction will not be able to be sustained -- and the buyers will prevail (from 26.00-28.00 area).


http://www.safehaven.com/article-9228.htm

Yeppers. We will be leaving Philly tomorrow AM heading for the Autotrain in Lorton VA, but of course, stopping to pick up Two Buck Chuck first! The highway was clear in upstate NY, but getting across Montreal, even after rush hour, was a nightmare. Next time, we move on the weekend only!

OK! Let the good times roll!

I just looked at this months options in C and the max pain looks to be somewhere around 33 to 35 a share.

Something else I sold too soon. I had a Jun 40 call option on this thing from when it got the bad news beatdown. I sold it a few weeks ago when stirring up cash.

Today they got a bunch of the old accounts back.

China Mobile Kills Crapple iPhoney Deal
Crapple needs China to hit its long-term sales goals of the iPhoney. And, China has told Crapple "no".

ain't that a shame!

what an absolute POS

BEWARE THE BOUNCE

I have a bouncy feeling in my bones

December and early Jan were give me's to bears but I feel a bounce coming on.

Specially if merrily lynch and Citi corpse get all that new capital from the sovereign wealth funds

I note that the Lampert keretsu appears to be good value

eg autonation, autozone and Sears - they do look Dover Sole.

Retailers will bounce feb better than banks, builders wont bounce.

Have you seen the new gourmet menu that
speaker of the House Pellosi has recently introduced to all of the congressonal diningrooms??

Its as misunderstandable as a set of heiroglyphics were prior to the discovery of the reosetta stone....so rapidly metabolising is our meatball earth that immediately after anything ocurs does it become an ancient paleolithic, egyptian or medeval ruin totally opaque to the haute couturiered fauna roaming the glens.

beardrech

beardrech Everything Human today is alien to me...