Closed







http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Whoa, a vertical drop on open and now the index is fairly close to the August lows. All Ords -2.3% with all sectors deeply in the red. Property Trusts has the honour of first place, -3.2% followed by Metals & Mining, -3.1%. Utilities is down the least, -1%.

Big miners slammed: BHP -3.7%, RIO -2.9% and ditto for the golds, Newcrest -3.2%, Lihir -5% and Newmont -0.2%.

Oils in a selloff: Woodside -2.5%, Santos -3.2% and Caltex -2.5%.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Declines in Longest Selloff in 7 Years

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell for an eighth day in its longest selloff in more than seven years. The index has lost 7.9 percent over the past eight days and slipped 15 percent from its Nov. 1 record.

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Australian Consumer Confidence Fell Most in 14 Months

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Australian consumer confidence fell in January by the most in 14 months after banks increased home-loan rates, gasoline prices jumped and the stock market plunged.

The sentiment index slumped 8.3 percent from December to a seasonally adjusted 103.1, according to a Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne Institute survey of 1,200 people released today in Sydney.

Households are paying more for mortgages this month after the nation's five largest banks, including Commonwealth Bank of Australia, raised interest rates on home loans as the global credit slump pushed up their borrowing costs. Optimism was also damped by a 10 percent jump in gasoline prices in the past two months and a 14 percent slide in the stock market since November.

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Australian November Home-Loan Approvals Rise on Jobs

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's home-loan approvals rose four times as much as economists forecast in November as surging jobs growth stoked demand for housing.

The number of loans granted to people to build or buy houses or apartments climbed 4 percent to 65,831 from October, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1 percent gain. It was the first increase in three months.

Lending to owner-occupiers rose 2 percent to A$15.6 billion in November. The value of lending to investors who plan to rent or resell homes declined 2.8 to A$6.74 billion.

Loans to build new houses were unchanged in November from October, today's report showed. The number of loans to buy newly built dwellings declined 7.3 percent.

Australians outlaid almost 37 percent of their family income to pay an average home loan in September, the largest proportion since the institute began measuring affordability 22 year ago.

U.K. Inflation Holds Above Bank of England Target

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. inflation was above the Bank of England's 2 percent target for a third month in December, adding to the case for fewer interest-rate cuts this year.

Consumer prices rose 2.1 percent from a year earlier, the same as in November, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Economists expected a rate of 2 percent, the median forecast of 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News showed. In the month, prices increased 0.6 percent, the most in a year.

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U.K. Housing Market Was Worst Since 1992 in December

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. real-estate professionals said December was the worst month for the housing market since the aftermath of Britain's last recession in 1992.

The number of real-estate agents and surveyors saying prices fell exceeded those reporting gains by 49.1 percentage points, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said today in London. That compares with 40.6 points the previous month. In the capital, confidence in prices fell to the lowest since 2003.

Down and sideways, hmmm might be more to come... All Ords closed -2.5% with most sectors hit hard. IT finished -4.6%, Consumer Staples -3.3%, Miners -3.1% and Financials -3%. Property Trusts had the smallest loss, -0.4%.

Miners looked like they might come off the lows at one point but no go: BHP -3.1%, RIO -3% and in the golds, Newcrest -3.5% and Lihir -5.8%. Newmont squeaked out a gain, +0.8%.

Oils weren't too badly off, considering: Woodside -1.5%, Santos -3.3% and Caltex -1.6%.

Big losses in Asia: Honkers -4%, Taiwan -3%, Nikkers -2.7% and China -2.4%.


Looks like the last session UK/Europe was a bloodbath, see what happens this time around:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

This calls for a decent breakfast today.

JPM not cratering on miss.

Not going up either, but not cratering.

Rest of market still sucks.

hello?

how about gold and silver?

Hong Kong Phooey crapped down to its 200 dma, which is also the 61.8% retracement of the move up from August.

Looks like that descending triangle broke down. Things certainly have changed.

I haven't been playing'em in this last move up, but looks to me like they want to consolidate a bit here.

Nice chart. "Number one super-guy!"

I can't believe NQ is going to open above 1890....

a Sea of Red...

enough to take a Bear's breathe away...

Australian-Asian market indexes this ay-em...

http://new.quote.com/global/stocks/asia_australia.action

C calls are looking cheap, but that one's a falling knife...

"Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I got stopped out at 1396 yesterday and today I will be a buyer at 1365 using a 25 point stop initially. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs."

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

We'll need a nice afternoon plunge for him to enter.

Here is a CPI article without the Crapvision spin.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080116/economy.html?.v=8

I think we find support today in everything... at least short term

DJ Fed Accepts $13 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $13 Bln
Total submitted: $58.3 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $13 Bln
Total submitted: $40.4 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.32%
Weighted Average: 4.34%
High-rate submitted: 4.34%
Low-rate submitted: 4.2%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $5.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.9%
Low-rate submitted: 3.7%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $12.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.34%
Low-rate submitted: 4.3%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

Strange so far...

Check my numbers, but today the Fed added $6.25b and yesterday they added $5b.
Tomorrow they have $30b expiring at the same time the $30b taffy settles. Coincidence? Tomorrow should be interesting.
I'm still watching for ST bounce.
Doc, I hope your trip is going smooth. If you get a chance, could you verify these numbers? TIA

or maybe not

When Blackstone Goes Private, It's Time to Buy: Matthew Lynn

Commentary by Matthew Lynn



Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- In March last year, this column had the headline ``If Blackstone Is Selling, Why Are You Buying?''

The argument was simple. If the private-equity guys at Blackstone Group LP were selling their stock, then maybe we were at the top of the market, or at least very close to it.

And so it turned out. The bull market in easy credit ran for a few more months, and then collapsed when the subprime mortgage crisis began. Blackstone and the other alternative investment managers who listed their shares early last year look a lot less healthy now.

The point of recalling that column isn't to blow my trumpet. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Some of us find even that record of accuracy hard to match.

The reason was rather to say that if the argument was valid then, it is still so today, except the other way around. If the Blackstone initial public offering marked the top of the market in easy credit and smart, innovative financial engineering, then where's the bottom? Probably when the people running Blackstone take it private again.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aBW0t6oX4YHA

Was that just the pigmen making a cheeky attempt to shake shorts out before they let it go? well, I added lots of shorts during that pop. Bring it on boys.

Yup.
Clueless here.

The Giggler has max-pain at 600. Will it get there, or will the option writers get into a race to hedge out and run it up?

well that Crapple sure has got beat up lately

whacked hard again yesterday

wonder how much of a bounce they gettin' this mornin'......



oh my

down another 4 pernts!

what an absolute POS

PEIX getting Rodney-Kinged...

Is the A/d line really even?

I show 1440 Adv
1447 dec

1374 is the Feb. low on the SP500. We're there now. Let see what happens.

Just put SDS back on . Was that the HOD?

I have not a bit of a doubt that Blackstone will go single digits.There performance last few years was mainly so good becasue of cheap credit. The days of cheap credit are gone. So whre are the alternatives for PE firms like Blackstone to make money? Mainly thru restructuring their portfolio companies, but in dong that they are not unique, McKinsey does it better.

One also has to know that PE is not an "old" business. It goes back to the 80s, back then we had the junk bond era, during that time KKR bought RJR Nabisco (i think it was in 87), till today one of the biggest LBO's. PE really started going thru the roof lets say 10 years ago or so. It took some years to got the best deals done, there were target companies, which were something like a role model for a LBO. But now, all does good deals have already been made. The number of secondary sales (that is a sale of a portfolio company of a PE funds to another PE fund) is surging. Sure, there will always be firms which need restructuring and so, and there maybe are some good firms out there which have good and stable cash flows what makes them obvious candidates for a LBO, but this becomes less and less. So the EBITDA multiples went up and up and more and more money was paid in auctions by PE firms like Blackstone, KKR and others to sign new portfolio companies.

Ah well, all i wanted to say is that Blacksotne will go down more.

In these types of market, i need to constantly remind myself.

Don't get caught..
Don't get hurt...
There's always another trade...

It looks like the EMs are not decoupling. Punching through the 200 sma:o

Sounds a bit like relationships Madness.

Are you heavily short here?

The only short I have on here thats making me a little uncomfortable is AMZN. It does not seem to want to join the downside party.

Yes, Sir! The double inverse has had two big days in a row. I wonder how far it'll get, the moon? Thanks K. Where's Doc. Wasn't he supposed to get into Flawduh on Tuesday?

Is my VIX ticker broke? I have the VIX down .04 with the market down 50 pernts! No fear whatsoever!

No...
Holding only GS put options. Added some more on this morning's frantic bounce.

FSLR on meltdown.
Below 190 now.

PCU losin' it

It looks like the energy bulls are getting a little gut check.

SLB also losin' it

So many thing looks like it's ready to crash.

Madness, you are missing the fun.

I shorted aggressively this morning on that bounce. Gota take these opportunities when they present themselves.

I am kicking myself though for missing FSLR. I had shorted that one so many times but then missed the meltdown. Dang! Dang!

At least Amzn seems to be going now. I am also short NEM from the Monday highs.

Mickey Mouse losin' it.

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Drillers are doing worst than the oilers.