Or just sound & fury? Either way, a few nimble stoolies scored big in the chop.

But, what of Carl F.?

finally got a dead cat bounce in JAVA this morning, fizzled out though

one of my worst dead dogs teasing me with signs of life today

Count on the rating agencies to show the way!

NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Wednesday cut its credit ratings on Orion Finance, a structured investment vehicle, after the fund defaulted on its obligations to pay off maturing commercial paper.

S&P lowered the fund's issuer credit rating to "D," for default, from "AAA," the top investment-grade rating. Orion's commercial paper and medium-term note ratings were also cut to "default."

Orion, sponsored by Eiger Capital Management, joins Axon Financial Funding, Victoria Finance, Cheyne Finance and Rhinebridge LLC as SIVs that are in default and have stopped paying current interest and principal, S&P said in a release.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...665269720080116

Good thing for that last hour, or we may have had wndysrf returning, just to mock us for DARING to go up against the pigmen!

On a somewhat different note, does anyone else get tired of the ass-kissing that Warren Buffett seems to receive on a daily basis? It's as if the entire "financial community" hopes that he'll read these articles, in the hopes that he'll ask them to the senior prom! For example:

http://msn.fool.com/investing/value/2008/0...edmsnlnk0010001

"Berkshire Better Than Gold...

The endless news of new victims of the credit turmoil pushes investors en masse to do what they always do: run for the exits, abandon equities, and get hit by the gold bug. The price of gold continues to reach new highs, and the proliferation of gold-based exchange-traded funds has certainly aided in its ascent. Gold has always been the ultimate flight-to-safety investment during times of equity turmoil.

The gold bug
The endless news of new victims of the credit turmoil pushes investors en masse to do what they always do: run for the exits, abandon equities, and get hit by the gold bug. The price of gold continues to reach new highs, and the proliferation of gold-based exchange-traded funds has certainly aided in its ascent. Gold has always been the ultimate flight-to-safety investment during times of equity turmoil.

But unless you have precise market-timing abilities, gold has underperformed equities as a long-term investment when adjusted for inflation. If you can't make a significant investment at the maximum point of pessimism -- or if you can't sit still while the value of your investment has been temporarily impaired -- there are excellent alternatives.


Better than gold AND cash in the bank
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK- is one of the most well-respected businesses in the U.S., if not the world. For 40 years, the company's book value grew at an annualized rate of more than 20%. Berkshire has had a couple of minor hiccups, but overall, it remains true to its core competencies: insurance and capital allocation. Over the years, Warren Buffett has done a masterful job of positioning Berkshire to perform for the long haul....

...An investment in Berkshire, over the long term, is both safer and better than gold or cash in the bank....

A $200 billion growth company
By all metrics, Berkshire should still be viewed as a growth company -- even with a current valuation of some $200 billion. And if pessimism continues to rule the state of the equity market, then Berkshire Hathaway becomes all the more compelling. "

I don't even know where to begin with this steaming pile. I guess I'll start with "The endless news of new victims of the credit turmoil pushes investors en masse to do what they always do: run for the exits, abandon equities, and get hit by the gold bug." Oh, really? Is that what they "always" do?! I seem to remember some saying to SELL gold, because commodities were a bubble, and an economic slowdown would HURT the price! But let's get back to Buffett. Where does this writer get off saying Berkshire is better than gold?! Gold has DESTROYED Berkshire since 2001, among many other things gold has destroyed. And, if you want to go back further than 2001- who knows, since the writer doesn't specify- then fine. But in that case, why select Berkshire as this mecca of safe-haven investing? For example, since 1990, Microsoft has done way better than Berkshire, so again, why hold Berkshire as the gold standard (sorry-couldn't resist!) of investing? Who knows, since, once again, the writer never states- which goes back to my original theory about the prom. As for it being better than cash in the bank, I'll agree with that. But what ISN'T safer than cash in the bank at this point?!

My personal feeling towards Buffett is that while he certainly deserves his due, he is also EXTREMELY overrated. He makes wishy-washy statements that bulls and bears alike try to interpret along lines that favor their points of views, perhaps because they think it will give them "street cred". Personally, I couldn't care less what he thinks- especially about politics and taxes. As far as I'm concerned, Peter Schiff and Bill Fleckenstein are FAR wiser, and much more worthy of our respect than Buffett. So is shorty, for that matter!!!

Leapin Lizards Batman...my trading account is up over 20% since mid December!

Excellent work Robin....I'm calling my broker now...

[attachmentid=94734]

what they leave out is that he is 77 and it's a one man show. pretty much. gold is still the same regardless of the obits.

The PnF charting data that I look at is still showing no demand for stocks.....every time there is a little buying it is met with overwhelming selling pressure.....I'm looking for indications of a turn-around and am not seeing it yet...

Damn skippy.

I wonder how many are still rated AAA?

I hope you will let us know when and if you see any.

Carl Fuscia.....

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I got stopped out at 1396 yesterday and today I will be a buyer at 1365 using a 25 point stop initially. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.



When will he give up?

I give him credit for trying to time a bottom.

Wow. Artificial economic distortions can cause the weirdest effects. In Venezuela, for example, where you have red-hot domestic consumption + subsidized gasoline prices, the effect is that demand for cars is going ballistic, up to the point where you have to wait for months or even a year to get a new car. And this is resulting in that used cars are commanding a premium to new ones , of up to 30%. . A liquidity premium in the auto market. You always learn something.

Does anyone have any clue why QID only finished up 0.22%?! I found it extremely troubling that this would happen, on a day where QQQQ is down 1.07%- WAY more troubling than a silly bounce...

new trend developing in OZ.

The $1 restaurant.

No, not all you can eat for $1.

You can have the whole restaurant for $1.

The sting in the tail?

Crippling rent payments.

Not to forget soaring food prices,high wages and tapped out consumers.

What a recipe..

Restaurateurs Nick Etridge and Pamela Costantini started the new year enjoying a dream lifestyle – a thriving family restaurant on the Gold Coast with an enviable reputation for dishing up value for money food – and their first child, a beautiful boy named Samuel.


But what Nick and Pamela really want for 2008 is a home in Sydney, so Samuel can grow up closer to the couple’s family and friends.


And that means average Aussie punters are getting a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to own a slice of Nick and Pamela’s dream life.


Their restaurant is about to go on sale. The asking price? Well, you tell them. They’re looking for the best offer they can get, as long as it’s over $1.

http://aca.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=345322

Prime Minister Kevin Rudds honeymoon is going to be shortlived.

Labor voters' confidence starts to sink

LABOR voters have lost their rose-tinted glasses, their confidence in the economic outlook shaken by recent interest rate rises and diving share markets.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23063821-421,00.html

Keep an eye on Chindia stocks. If they begin to rally, it is going to be the bottom.

He will give up when his subscribers run out of money and quit paying for his advise.

Another one of those intermediate term indicators that may be useless if we are entering a bear market, or extremely useful if we aren't.

He's farking nuts...it's axiomatic--there is no such thing as a triple bottom:

It has to do with when the close of the security was measured. QQQQ's being a NASDAQ stock measures the ending at 4:00 PM. So the next days trading is compared with this closing price despite what happens after hours. QID is traded on the AMEX and its closing price is measured at the end of the AH so the change the next day takes into account the after hours activity.

Hi!

A yam back, and have so much to do, don't know where to start. Hope to have market update posted in WSE Pro by 10 PM ET!

But first,

Chow!

He's worse than a bear like me trying to time a top in a bull. Now I just gotta stop coverin shorts too soon.

Carl is gonna go long all the way to the bottom and then he will FINALLY be correct....and then he'll pat himself on the back.... ...and then proclaim:

"All you United States Americans should follow my work as it benefits the Iraqi children and what knot..."

[attachmentid=94736]

I find it interesting that the supposed 4 year cycle low at 1363.98, last year was not broken. Either we are in the four year decline now and it came late or we just saw an important low. I have no idea which one it is but, I am betting up for the ST. If we get a move higher, and it's corrective, than I will short near 1425-50. Shorting earlier then resistance because I did actually learn something in the last Bear market.

ADRE - emerging markets busted some support today

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1200527584.png

Who is telling the truth here??? We have a higher low...and a lower high..

[attachmentid=94737]

Put/Call ratio still has some rising to do before we put in a good bottom....

[attachmentid=94738]

We need some real FEAR....

this reminds me of the aftermath of the tech bust.

Everyone kept expecting the market to rally but it just kept falling.

That is where I first heard the expression 'catch a falling knife'.

I had my hands shredded trying to catch knifes.

Just when you think all the bad news is in the current stock prices,the news gets a little worse.

I once owned a stock in OZ called Solution 6.

It hit $18.

It dropped to $15

Then to $11

then to $8

then to $5

then to $4

then to $3

then to $2

then to $1

then to .60c

then to .30c


I sold at $15 thank god.

with volume! thanks for the chart

Indicators set to a 4 year cycle period show the bottom to have been in June- July of 2006, and the top in July and October 2007. Most stocks topped in July.

Very long term indicators, set to a cycle period of 8-12 years show that the entire period of December 2006 until today were a top, with a major sell signal concurrent with the July 2007 high.

I generally publish updates of the long term charts and indicators every 4-6 weeks in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition. I reported these significant changes in the indicators at the times they occurred. If you need long term perspective in your work, having that information may have helped you. You can follow this work in the Stocks Package of the Professional Edition, which you can try risk free for 30 days. Click the link below to get in RIGHT NOW!

used car prices going up 30% per year, cool

have they figured out yet that they can re-fi their cars with no-doc neg-am option ARM teasers, and pull out cash?

"tap the equity you've earned to begin living the lifestyle you so richly deserve....take cash out of your car for college, travel, or to spend anyway you choose....even to buy a new home!"

think I'll git me arse down there and buy me 50 or 100 used cars with OPM

then I just need ta line me up a conpetent uppraiser

I closed my SPX puts near the close and bought a measly JAN ATM call. May I burn in Bear Hell.

I deserve it.

Looking to short at resistance or when my Impulse Management Counselor fails to return my call.

Shorty- I'll give you a good deal on this little low mileage beauty!

Last time I was in Peru, The Car To Own was either a Fiat, Ford or Range Rover.

That was early 80's. Times have changed, no doubt.

The Rover would have been the right choice.

Time was, Rover's had East Africa covered more than the gazelles and mambas did. Most of 'em have semi-automatic hollow point shells in the upholstery now, if I've heard correctly.

Another loss to technologic advancement ...

will ya keep quiet if I get a loan for 100K over the axin' price and you kick me back 50K under the table at closin' time?

don't worry, evybuddy's doin' it

I got a friend lined up who'll pay me 100K over that

then we can sell it back to you for 200K over, if ya want another piece of the action

who needs a job?

we'll be players, big time, Wealth Power kingpins

just like RE

Mish has something to say about cars and it aint positive...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

check out the hottest new ride among former RE borkers

rut roh..

Lehman Says

By Alex Lange

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. recommends selling the currencies of Australian and New Zealand because the nations' economies are unlikely to avoid the effects of a slowdown in U.S. growth.

``Those trumpeting decoupling better think twice about it,'' said David Mozina, senior vice president of foreign exchange strategy at Lehman Brothers in New York. ``The financial linkages are still too great.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...4U30&refer=home

After that, between 1985 and 1990, you only had a choice between a Toyota Corona, a Nissan Sunny or a VW Beetle. Nothing else. And you had to wait for months to get one, and few even had the luxury of even choosing the color. Couldn't even import any cars nor the parts for older Fords or anything else so they just rotted.

Back then, everyone would talk about "that dude who had a 1978 Porsche". Whooooaa.


Today, you see Audi S4s, S6s, Porsche Cayennes... Range Rovers, BMWs are like soooo passe...

My ex-girlfriend's dad had a bulletproof Toyota Land Rover back in the 90s which he used in a failed coup against Fujimori in 92. Sometimes we went out in that car and you could still see the bullet impacts on the windshield. Those were the days.

substitute Hinsdale for just about any middle class suburb in OZ..

Wealthy may be next in line in U.S. home crisis

HINSDALE, Illinois (Reuters) - A house in this wealthy Chicago suburb is far beyond the reach of most Americans.

Unfortunately, Hinsdale may also now be too expensive for some of the people who already live here.

"There is a section of the population here that over-extended themselves to buy here and then keep up the facade of wealth," said Sharon Sodikoff, a broker associate at local real estate agency Prudential Homelife Realty. "In the next year or so they'll be forced out in dribs and drabs."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080117/us_nm/...ousing_prime_dc

Hey Brisbane-

Appreciate your posts on the crack-up boom craziness in Australia.

Do you have any idea what interest rate a buyer with good credit might typically expect to pay on an 80% loan-to-value, 30 yr fixed rate mortgage (single family home) in the amount of 550,000-600,000 AUD there in OZ?

TIA.

Hey Hey Bris ... My nostalgia for the Chicago 'burbs (North Shore is where i dun growed up) is only exceeded by my yearning to return once again to Peru and ... New Zealand.

(i vividly remember having my face in the cleavage of a shepherd's daughter's breasts on a mountaintop on the South Island way back when)

but ... by way of Australia. The "old" Hinsdale archictecture and the South Melbourne suburbs actually have had a lot in common, even back in the early 80's. Parallel universes ....

You don't get many replies to your posts during (your) waking hours, but I for one, really appreciate them.

EZ,

I think the rates are around 8.5% give or take 1/4 point.

Peek,

I used to live in Elwood,a stones throw from South Melbourne.

I am glad you guys enjoy my posts.

It is kind of scary watching all this stuff unfold as we have all predicted it would.

I would do it in a heartbeat except with my luck instead of getting a 110 million dollar buyout like the Tan Man I would get 110 years in arse pounding prison!

The punters are racing to lock in their rates.

Too late I suspect.

Coast home buyers rush to beat rise
10:44a.m. 17 January 2008
| Jo Styles

Sunshine Coast home owners, fearing a fallout from the US mortgage crisis, are rushing to fixed rate loans at a rate of up to one in three, advisers said today.

Managing director of Queensland Property Finance, Adam King said home buyers were leaning towards fixed-interest loans due to concern of interest rates increasing and the negative publicity interest rates had recently been receiving.

“People are definitely concerned with rates going higher and are choosing to fix their loans, but we always ensure to present our clients with every option available to them and we tend to err on the side of caution,” Mr King said.

“At the moment banks are offering loans at 8% but we can often get a fixed loan to be less than 8%,” he said.

http://www.thedaily.com.au/news/2008/jan/1...rush-beat-rise/

Mish on mall space.

Glut of Mall Space Headed our Way

Be prepared to see a lot of "For Lease" signs. A glut of empty mall space is headed our way. Rising vacancies will pressure lease rates even though overly optimistic lease rates contributed largely to the boom. No one at any stage of the game ever bothered to figure out who was going to occupy all this space.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

LAUGH OF THE DAY



How many more german banks, norwegian municpalities and hedge funds are hidding losess

My guess is lots