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Full Version: IDS World Markets Thurs 17th January 08
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A wee bounce today. All Ords +0.3% with Property Trusts the leading sector, +1.9% followed by Utilities +1.4%. The only red sectors are the miners, -1.5% and Energy -0.6%.
Miners looking depressed: BHP -2.3%, RIO -1.8% and the golds no better, Newcrest -1.4%, Newmont -3% and Lihir flat.
Oils uniformly down on lowish volume: Woodside -1.1%, Santos -1.3% and Caltex -1.1%.
Still too many sellers around for today's buyers to make a difference but the latter certainly slowed things down. All Ords closed -0.2% and the miners remained the most heavily hit sector, -2% with Consumer Staples next at -1.2%. Utilities had the best gain, +2.1% followed by IT +1.7%.
Both the big miners were heavily down: BHP -2.7% and RIO -3.5%. Golds also in the red but looking like more of a pullback after the recent action: Newcrest -0.8%, Lihir -1.1% and Newmont -2.9%.
Oils down to varying degrees: Woodside -0.9%, Santos -2.8% and Caltex -1.6%.
A lacklustre session in Asia: China -2.7%, Honkers -0.4% and Nikkers +1.2%.
Over to UK/Europe:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
New Zealand's Inflation Exceeds Central Bank's Target
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's inflation rate accelerated more than expected in the fourth quarter, exceeding the top of the central bank's target band and adding to speculation Governor Alan Bollard may delay an interest-rate cut.
Consumer prices rose 1.2 percent from the third quarter and 3.2 percent from a year earlier, above the central bank's 1 percent-to-3 percent range for annual inflation, Statistics New Zealand said today in Wellington.
----------------
Australian Employment Rises 20,100; Jobless Rate 4.3%
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Australian employment rose for a 14th month in December, adding to the longest hiring boom in almost three decades that is fanning inflation and may force the central bank to raise borrowing costs next month.
The longest run of monthly job gains since 1980, driven by demand for skilled labor at mining companies including Rio Tinto Group has fueled wage increases and inflation, forcing the central bank to raise interest rates to an 11-year high. Employment growth will probably continue after job-vacancy advertisements surged to a record in December.
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's inflation rate accelerated more than expected in the fourth quarter, exceeding the top of the central bank's target band and adding to speculation Governor Alan Bollard may delay an interest-rate cut.
Consumer prices rose 1.2 percent from the third quarter and 3.2 percent from a year earlier, above the central bank's 1 percent-to-3 percent range for annual inflation, Statistics New Zealand said today in Wellington.
----------------
Australian Employment Rises 20,100; Jobless Rate 4.3%
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Australian employment rose for a 14th month in December, adding to the longest hiring boom in almost three decades that is fanning inflation and may force the central bank to raise borrowing costs next month.
The longest run of monthly job gains since 1980, driven by demand for skilled labor at mining companies including Rio Tinto Group has fueled wage increases and inflation, forcing the central bank to raise interest rates to an 11-year high. Employment growth will probably continue after job-vacancy advertisements surged to a record in December.
Canadian Banks May Ignore Expected Interest-Rate Cut
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian banks may not match an expected interest-rate cut by the Bank of Canada next week as they normally do for top customers, because of a rise in their own cost of raising money, Toronto-Dominion Bank Chief Economist Don Drummond said.
The refusal to match a rate cut would limit the central bank's ability to use monetary policy to revive an economy hurt by a U.S. slowdown, because the prime rate for top banking customers guides about 65 percent of all business and consumer loans in Canada. The banks may balk at matching a rate move for the first time since the Asian financial crisis in 1997 because they're facing higher borrowing costs, Drummond said.
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian banks may not match an expected interest-rate cut by the Bank of Canada next week as they normally do for top customers, because of a rise in their own cost of raising money, Toronto-Dominion Bank Chief Economist Don Drummond said.
The refusal to match a rate cut would limit the central bank's ability to use monetary policy to revive an economy hurt by a U.S. slowdown, because the prime rate for top banking customers guides about 65 percent of all business and consumer loans in Canada. The banks may balk at matching a rate move for the first time since the Asian financial crisis in 1997 because they're facing higher borrowing costs, Drummond said.
Well, it looks as if the housing bubble collapse acceleration is boolish for equities this morning!
The Fed has replaced only $6 billion of the $8 billion in expiring 14 day repos. There's a lot of other activity today, including a TAF settlement adding net of $10 billion, but the Fed still has a long way to go to cover the remaining rollovers and redemptions. They need a big 7 day and a big overnight repo to do it. If they don't, then the Fed's posture would remain bearish for stocks.
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You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.
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If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.
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DJ Fed Accepts $6 Bln In 14-Day RPs
Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $55.75 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.155 Bln
Total submitted: $18.9 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.22%
Weighted Average: 4.22%
High-rate submitted: 4.22%
Low-rate submitted: 3.97%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.1 Bln
Total submitted: $12.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.8%
Weighted Average: 3.8%
High-rate submitted: 3.82%
Low-rate submitted: 3.5%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $1.745 Bln
Total submitted: $24 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.3%
Weighted Average: 4.3%
High-rate submitted: 4.3%
Low-rate submitted: 4.05%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $55.75 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.155 Bln
Total submitted: $18.9 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.22%
Weighted Average: 4.22%
High-rate submitted: 4.22%
Low-rate submitted: 3.97%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.1 Bln
Total submitted: $12.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.8%
Weighted Average: 3.8%
High-rate submitted: 3.82%
Low-rate submitted: 3.5%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $1.745 Bln
Total submitted: $24 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.3%
Weighted Average: 4.3%
High-rate submitted: 4.3%
Low-rate submitted: 4.05%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jan 17 2008, 09:05 AM)
DJ Fed Accepts $6 Bln In 14-Day RPs
Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $55.75 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.155 Bln
Total submitted: $18.9 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.22%
Weighted Average: 4.22%
High-rate submitted: 4.22%
Low-rate submitted: 3.97%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.1 Bln
Total submitted: $12.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.8%
Weighted Average: 3.8%
High-rate submitted: 3.82%
Low-rate submitted: 3.5%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $1.745 Bln
Total submitted: $24 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.3%
Weighted Average: 4.3%
High-rate submitted: 4.3%
Low-rate submitted: 4.05%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $55.75 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.155 Bln
Total submitted: $18.9 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.22%
Weighted Average: 4.22%
High-rate submitted: 4.22%
Low-rate submitted: 3.97%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.1 Bln
Total submitted: $12.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.8%
Weighted Average: 3.8%
High-rate submitted: 3.82%
Low-rate submitted: 3.5%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $1.745 Bln
Total submitted: $24 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.3%
Weighted Average: 4.3%
High-rate submitted: 4.3%
Low-rate submitted: 4.05%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
Stop-Out Rate: 3.8%
That looks like 3.75%. Today or tomorrow? That ought to goose the futures and stick it to the shorts again on OPEX Friday.
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jan 17 2008, 09:16 AM)
When was the last time a big project on the street went bust?
The 3,000-room high-rise casino and hotel is due to open in late 2009 between the Bellagio casino resort and the CityCenter casino complex on the Las Vegas Strip.
from the above article
QUOTE(cwd @ Jan 17 2008, 09:20 AM)
Stop-Out Rate: 3.8%
That looks like 3.75%. Today or tomorrow? That ought to goose the futures and stick it to the shorts again on OPEX Friday.
That looks like 3.75%. Today or tomorrow? That ought to goose the futures and stick it to the shorts again on OPEX Friday.
I don't agree. See my note above. Unless the Fed really steps up with a 7 day and a big overnight, the base is still extremely tight. This is the same condition we have been in for the past month, and it is extremely bearish. The cost of funds does not matter as long as the quantity is shrinking.
The Fed is in a box here.
QUOTE(cwd @ Jan 17 2008, 09:23 AM)
When was the last time a big project on the street went bust?
The 3,000-room high-rise casino and hotel is due to open in late 2009 between the Bellagio casino resort and the CityCenter casino complex on the Las Vegas Strip.
from the above article
The 3,000-room high-rise casino and hotel is due to open in late 2009 between the Bellagio casino resort and the CityCenter casino complex on the Las Vegas Strip.
from the above article
Several months before he died, LeeWhee did a great analysis of Vegas. It's in his blog.
Wow! Creamer was in rare form this am. I guess it's time to get the Prozac prescription adjusted.
This is a bit long but worth watching. If you can, stick it out to the end when he starts talking about jamming paper on stupid customers.
http://www.Crapvision.com/id/15840232?video=624755222
This is a bit long but worth watching. If you can, stick it out to the end when he starts talking about jamming paper on stupid customers.
http://www.Crapvision.com/id/15840232?video=624755222
Ambac down 48%
MBIA down 30%
(yawn)
MBIA down 30%
(yawn)
Anyone catch what Cramer said this morning?
Heard from a friend he said both MER and C would be bankrupt if it wasn't for terrorist in the middle east and communist China. That's pretty bold.
Heard from a friend he said both MER and C would be bankrupt if it wasn't for terrorist in the middle east and communist China. That's pretty bold.
ABK -56%
MBI - 35%
WOW
MBI - 35%
WOW
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Jan 17 2008, 09:36 AM)
Ambac down 48%
MBIA down 30%
(yawn)
MBIA down 30%
(yawn)
Options aren't open yet.
Back to day trading, 3 and 5 day cycle indicators have been on the buy side since mid day yesterday, but as with all previous such signals of late, it looks like a sideways job or a flameout until proven otherwise.
GS down 3 bucks. About damn time!
ABK now worth only $600 million.
Guess it is no longer "too big to fail"
Guess it is no longer "too big to fail"
Woops, make that $500 million
ABK must be a great buy with a 17% dividend yield and a trailing P/E of 0.64.
OK, they did a 1 day of $11 billion, leaving them way short. If there's not another announcement by 9:50, it's going to be a huge drain on the day. And remember, the TAF add is largely diverted away from the Primary Dealers directly into banks who will use the funds to continue to carry their problem loans. They are using good collateral to prop the bad. In a general sense, this is all extremely bearish.
More coming up in the WSE Pro Fed Report. Try it for 30 days RISK FREE! Click here to get in RIGHT NOW!
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What happens to all the insurances that these guys (abk & mbi) sold? 
qqqq 3 day cycle projection 46.85
*DJ White House: Bush Has Concluded Economic Stimulus Necessary
This guy should get a nobel prize......... He is a genius
5 hr cycle projection 46.63
Where's Plan B ??? The Fed draining on a day when the two biggest bond insurers are on the cusp of losing their AAA rating and yet the rest of the market is up with decent breadth. I smell a Plan B. If not, it's Plan C----
9:50 has come and gone and no announcement from the Fed. Looks like a big drain reversing most of the adds of the past two days.
The Fed also guided the rate toward the 4.25 target by taking mostly Agency collateral at 4.28. They took almost none of the T-bill backed at 3.77.
Think about it. In order to keep the rate near the target they needed to do another huge drain. The Fed is being forced to keep the monetary base flat as a result. Why haven't they allowed the rate to drop, and the base to expand a bit?
Think about it. In order to keep the rate near the target they needed to do another huge drain. The Fed is being forced to keep the monetary base flat as a result. Why haven't they allowed the rate to drop, and the base to expand a bit?
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jan 17 2008, 09:49 AM)
What happens to all the insurances that these guys (abk & mbi) sold?
They lose their AAA ratings as well... that means munis lose it too, and gazillions of other bond issues around the globe as well, which would trigger massive selling in the credit markets. This is the biggest systemic risk of all at the moment, I believe. The Investment Grade CDX Index just went ballistic
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jan 17 2008, 09:49 AM)
What happens to all the insurances that these guys (abk & mbi) sold?
Well, assuming there's no BAC white knight for these guys, then the assurances they've underwritten go bye-bye.
And all the securitized garbage that they've insured deserves to be marked down, since their make-whole provisions have gone bye-bye.
Further, as I understand it, these guys are the main insurers for municipal debt. Unless Buffett can fill the hole quickly that these guys may leave, then it's going to be more difficult for muni issuers to get insured, and thereby for institutional borrowers to swallow it up... at a time when tax revenues are coming in short.
Welcome to the debtpocalypse.
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Jan 17 2008, 09:53 AM)
Where's Plan B ??? The Fed draining on a day when the two biggest bond insurers are on the cusp of losing their AAA rating and yet the rest of the market is up with decent breadth. I smell a Plan B. If not, it's Plan C----
Wheres the picture of the guy from SpongeBob that owns the Chum Bucket getting the "Plan Z" out of the file cabinet?
The difference between MBIA, ABK and other financials is that their entire business model revolves around theim maintaining their AAA rating. If they can't keep it, then their business model implodes, period.
A/D just took a dumpo
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Jan 17 2008, 10:01 AM)
The difference between MBIA, ABK and other financials is that their entire business model revolves around theim maintaining their AAA rating. If they can't keep it, then their business model implodes, period.
Im donging SSO $72.40 anticipating a Bernanke/Bush bounce! Feel free to short with impunity!
I'd like to see some discussion about why there's so little Primary Dealer demand for virtually free repo money from the Fed.
Benny bashes Bucky back below 50 ma.
NEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Budget Committee that more policy easing may be necessary and that the U.S. economic outlook has worsened.
The euro gained against the dollar to 1.4700 compared with 1.4685 <EUR=> before Bernanke began speaking. The dollar fell against the yen to 106.93 compared with 107.30 shortly before Bernanke began speaking. <JPY=>. (Reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Jonathan Oatis) Stinker
NEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Budget Committee that more policy easing may be necessary and that the U.S. economic outlook has worsened.
The euro gained against the dollar to 1.4700 compared with 1.4685 <EUR=> before Bernanke began speaking. The dollar fell against the yen to 106.93 compared with 107.30 shortly before Bernanke began speaking. <JPY=>. (Reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Jonathan Oatis) Stinker
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jan 17 2008, 09:30 AM)
I don't agree. See my note above. Unless the Fed really steps up with a 7 day and a big overnight, the base is still extremely tight. This is the same condition we have been in for the past month, and it is extremely bearish. The cost of funds does not matter as long as the quantity is shrinking.
The Fed is in a box here.
The Fed is in a box here.
The FED still has to maintain some kind of effort to keep the FFR somewhere near the target to keep the dollar from tanking IMO, even the total demand is decling.
I have to leave for a couple of hours. Keep everything level while I am away.
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Jan 17 2008, 10:01 AM)
The difference between MBIA, ABK and other financials is that their entire business model revolves around theim maintaining their AAA rating. If they can't keep it, then their business model implodes, period.
I don't know squat about the insurance industry, but couldn't one of the large reinsurers step in the way BAC did?
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jan 17 2008, 09:49 AM)
What happens to all the insurances that these guys (abk & mbi) sold?
Gone
QUOTE(Jimi @ Jan 17 2008, 10:15 AM)
I don't know squat about the insurance industry, but couldn't one of the large reinsurers step in the way BAC did?
Buffet was reportedly looking to scoop one of these guys up, but at the end it made more sense to him to let them die of their own toxic waste and build a new bond insurer from scratch, with clean arteries.
But if someone else, say an AIG, stands to lose much more if their AAA-rated holdings go to pot if ABK implodes, then it could make sense. But the buyer would also have to have a AAA rating for it to make sense. Ain;t much of those around these days.
OMG. Please tell me the Philly Fed number is a typo.
Wow. Benny started talking at 10:00.
This guy is the anti Greenspan for the market.
This guy is the anti Greenspan for the market.
-21 vs -1 exp.
I think Carl may get his chance to buy the SPX at 1365 today... 
..with his customery 25 point stop??
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Today I will be a buyer during regular hours at 1365 or better using a 25 point stop initially. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
..with his customery 25 point stop?? Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Today I will be a buyer during regular hours at 1365 or better using a 25 point stop initially. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
dow bounces off a shport line at 12371. If it doesn't hold on the next try, next shport is around 12310-315
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