http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices
Full Version: IDS World Markets Fri 18th January 08
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
A heavy duty drop today in line with the US action. All Ords -2.6%, miners again in the lead, -4.8% followed by Materials -4.5% and IT -3.9%. Telecomms has the "least" drop, -1.4%.
The big miners doing it tough: BHP -5.2%, RIO -6%. Less selling in the golds: Newcrest -1.5%, Newmont -0.7% and Lihir -1.6%.
Oils marked down: Woodside -2.8%, Santos -2.1% and Caltex -1.8%.
All Ords followed the Asian markets to make a remarkable recovery closing -1%. The intraday bounce came from the August and March 07 lows so a retest is in order. IT took over the downside lead, -4.3% followed by Metals & Mining -3.3%. Financials did a surge into the green, +2% but that was the only green area for the day.
In the miners, RIO did a run on takeover speculation, +4.6% and BHP went the other way, -4.7%. Golds dropped heavily with Newcrest way down, -7.2%, Newmont -1.3% and Lihir -4.6%. Juniors mixed.
Oils not happy: Woodside and Santos both -2.7% and Caltex -3.5%.
Over in Asia, Honkers -1.2%, Nikkers +0.6% and China -0.1%.
On to UK/Europe:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
...thanks again for posting this daily aussiebear!
QUOTE(Mies van der Rump @ Jan 18 2008, 07:48 PM)
...thanks again for posting this daily aussiebear!
My pleasure....
U.K. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall Most in 11 Months
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. retail sales unexpectedly dropped in December by the most in 11 months as higher borrowing costs and falling house prices curbed consumer spending.
Sales declined 0.4 percent from November, when they rose by the same amount, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists forecast a 0.2 percent increase, the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. On the year, sales climbed 2.7 percent, the least since September 2006.
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. retail sales unexpectedly dropped in December by the most in 11 months as higher borrowing costs and falling house prices curbed consumer spending.
Sales declined 0.4 percent from November, when they rose by the same amount, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists forecast a 0.2 percent increase, the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. On the year, sales climbed 2.7 percent, the least since September 2006.
AngloGold Output Drops on Geita, South African Mines
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Africa's biggest gold producer, said fourth-quarter output dropped 4.6 percent to 1.368 million ounces as production fell in South Africa and Tanzania. The company's shares declined.
Production fell by 55,000 ounces in South Africa after safety-related stoppages, Johannesburg-based AngloGold said in a statement to the city's stock exchange today. The Geita mine in Tanzania lost 51,000 ounces after equipment failure, it added.
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Africa's biggest gold producer, said fourth-quarter output dropped 4.6 percent to 1.368 million ounces as production fell in South Africa and Tanzania. The company's shares declined.
Production fell by 55,000 ounces in South Africa after safety-related stoppages, Johannesburg-based AngloGold said in a statement to the city's stock exchange today. The Geita mine in Tanzania lost 51,000 ounces after equipment failure, it added.
Bobby Fischer (IQ of 186) dead. 64 years old.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jan 18 2008, 07:55 AM)
My interpretation of the cycles consistently forecast that the period of January-mid February had the highest crash risk, being within the first leg of a 4 year cycle bear market following the July-October 4 year cycle high.
I keep seeing comments similar to yours Phat, and I don't understand why so many people are getting it wrong. The indicators are unequivocal. The 4 year cycle top was in October. The action we are seeing now is perfectly normal cyclically. In fact, I would be mildly surprised if it doesn't get worse over the next 3 weeks.
When analyzing cycles Hurst's Principal of Variation is one that you must always keep in mind. There's a normal variance in the timing of highs and lows. They can be early or late within that margin of error, and all are normal. There's also significant variance in cycle durations. Amplitude varies as well. 4 year cycles are often as short as 42 months, or as long as 54 months. Although rare in the second half of the 20th century, early in the century a 3 year cycle was also common. This is why we use a variety of time inputs in our indicators to measure these cycles.
My advice is to try not to have preconceived notions of what should or should not be occurring. Be aware of the normal time variances, keep the time windows and price projections in mind, and simply look for signs of change in the indicators in or around those target areas and you will rarely be surprised.
I keep seeing comments similar to yours Phat, and I don't understand why so many people are getting it wrong. The indicators are unequivocal. The 4 year cycle top was in October. The action we are seeing now is perfectly normal cyclically. In fact, I would be mildly surprised if it doesn't get worse over the next 3 weeks.
When analyzing cycles Hurst's Principal of Variation is one that you must always keep in mind. There's a normal variance in the timing of highs and lows. They can be early or late within that margin of error, and all are normal. There's also significant variance in cycle durations. Amplitude varies as well. 4 year cycles are often as short as 42 months, or as long as 54 months. Although rare in the second half of the 20th century, early in the century a 3 year cycle was also common. This is why we use a variety of time inputs in our indicators to measure these cycles.
My advice is to try not to have preconceived notions of what should or should not be occurring. Be aware of the normal time variances, keep the time windows and price projections in mind, and simply look for signs of change in the indicators in or around those target areas and you will rarely be surprised.
Well, another AM rally here. qqqq, spy and dia all on 3 and 5 day cycle buy signals.
Where have I seen this before?
Not impressed.
That being said, the initial 3 day cycle projection on the Qs looks around 46.17. 5 hr cycle projection 46.05.
spy 3 day cycle initial projection 135.75.
dia 3 day cycle projection 123.75-124.25
I'll be working on a podcast for the next few hours. Will be back later!
Where have I seen this before?
Not impressed.
That being said, the initial 3 day cycle projection on the Qs looks around 46.17. 5 hr cycle projection 46.05.
spy 3 day cycle initial projection 135.75.
dia 3 day cycle projection 123.75-124.25
I'll be working on a podcast for the next few hours. Will be back later!
Good Morning!
Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!
You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.
Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply.
If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page.
If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.
Many tanks for joining us!
Doc
Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don't find the information helpful, I'll give you a full refund. It's that simple!Click here for more information.
Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Precious Metals Daily, just $39 quarterly. Try it risk free for 30 days!
Get this indispensable daily analysis and support the Stool!
Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!
You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.
Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply.
If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page.
If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.
Many tanks for joining us!
Doc
Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don't find the information helpful, I'll give you a full refund. It's that simple!Click here for more information.
Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Precious Metals Daily, just $39 quarterly. Try it risk free for 30 days!
Get this indispensable daily analysis and support the Stool!
Just noticed that Interactive Brokers pays over 6% on its Australian and New Zealand cash balances. Is anyone trading CAD or USD /AUS or NZD forex? I like the yield, but don't want to enter a losing trade and don't follow those currency pairs.
closed last night's dowdong 12360 it's a livin'
gimme another dip please Mr. Markit
gimme another dip please Mr. Markit
I expect this bounce to lasta lil' bit longer than the previous ones (wait, which ones? 
). How long? Maybe a few days, or until the next credit shoe drops, which I think will be defaults in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets.
). How long? Maybe a few days, or until the next credit shoe drops, which I think will be defaults in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets.
C down .40 in prehour.
It's getting pounded.
It's getting pounded.
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Jan 18 2008, 09:13 AM)
I expect this bounce to lasta lil' bit longer than the previous ones (wait, which ones? ). How long? Maybe a few days, or until the next credit shoe drops, which I think will be defaults in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets.
). How long? Maybe a few days, or until the next credit shoe drops, which I think will be defaults in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets.A few days? You sure? Market just gave back 110 points off the highs.
A 300 point up day is that what all expect, but in a big bear do we get what most expect?
Not even a close below 12k would surpise me a single bit. The risk in that bear is BY FAR bigger than in the dot.bomb bear. We are not talking about things like "cash burn rate" or crap like that. Back then it was easy to see that many stocks just were completely overvalued, so they got sold. Now, investors cant even value the stocks. They simply cant calculate the risk. So they simply gonna sell them. Everything which has jsut only a single bit to do with credit will get sold hand over fist sooner or later.
And i dont see a reason why C should not fall below 10. This is a financial crisis, so financials will get hurt the mo0st. This means that C wuill not just test its long term uptrend and then move higher again. It will fall below its long term uptrend.
Not even a close below 12k would surpise me a single bit. The risk in that bear is BY FAR bigger than in the dot.bomb bear. We are not talking about things like "cash burn rate" or crap like that. Back then it was easy to see that many stocks just were completely overvalued, so they got sold. Now, investors cant even value the stocks. They simply cant calculate the risk. So they simply gonna sell them. Everything which has jsut only a single bit to do with credit will get sold hand over fist sooner or later.
And i dont see a reason why C should not fall below 10. This is a financial crisis, so financials will get hurt the mo0st. This means that C wuill not just test its long term uptrend and then move higher again. It will fall below its long term uptrend.
No breadth thrust at all.
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jan 18 2008, 09:30 AM)
A few days? You sure? Market just gave back 110 points off the highs.
Well, maybe at least 25 minutes.
Right until the Michigan Confidence #s.
Doc,
how high would you rate the possibility that Dow goes below 10k this year?
how high would you rate the possibility that Dow goes below 10k this year?
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Jan 18 2008, 09:36 AM)
Well, maybe at least 25 minutes. Right until the Michigan Confidence #s.
Right until the Michigan Confidence #s.either they manipulate the numbers or.... Normally the numbers should come in as an armageddonstyle catastrophe.
Woops. Breadth thrust.
Financial sector is down despite the hoopla. C rebounded to even at $25 and I unloaded the options from yesterday arvo for a minor loss (.02per and commissions ).
Now watch it run.
DJ Fed Accepts $3.5 Bln In 5-Day RPs
Type of transaction: 5-Day RPs
Total accepted: $3.5 Bln
Total submitted: $24.8 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.7 Bln
Total submitted: $16.25 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.2%
Weighted Average: 4.21%
High-rate submitted: 4.23%
Low-rate submitted: 4.17%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $800 Mln
Total submitted: $5.55 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.58%
Weighted Average: 3.6%
High-rate submitted: 3.6%
Low-rate submitted: 3.1%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.23%
Low-rate submitted: 4.19%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
And these are the people who are selected in the Congress for their financial acumen.
Ben Bernanke's Goldman-Sachs secret
In October, Representative Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, embarrassed herself during a Congressional hearing on broadband access with an out-of-the-blue rant against Internet smut. On Thursday, she distinguished herself once again while questioning Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke during a Committee on the Budget hearing.
KAPTUR: Number three, seeing as how you were the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, what percentage level -- oh, investment -- were you not...
BERNANKE: No, you're confusing me with the Treasury Secretary.
KAPTUR: I got the wrong firm?
BERNANKE: Yes.
KAPTUR: Paulson. Oh, OK. Where were you, sir?
BERNANKE: I was a CEO of the Princeton Economics Department.
KAPTUR: Oh, Princeton. Oh, all right. Sorry. Sorry.
(LAUGHTER)
I got you confused with the other one. I'm sorry. Well, I'm glad you clarified that for the record.
And How the World Works is glad to know that the nation's economy is in the hands of legislators who can't tell the difference between the Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/01/17/...gain/index.html
Ben Bernanke's Goldman-Sachs secret
In October, Representative Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, embarrassed herself during a Congressional hearing on broadband access with an out-of-the-blue rant against Internet smut. On Thursday, she distinguished herself once again while questioning Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke during a Committee on the Budget hearing.
KAPTUR: Number three, seeing as how you were the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, what percentage level -- oh, investment -- were you not...
BERNANKE: No, you're confusing me with the Treasury Secretary.
KAPTUR: I got the wrong firm?
BERNANKE: Yes.
KAPTUR: Paulson. Oh, OK. Where were you, sir?
BERNANKE: I was a CEO of the Princeton Economics Department.
KAPTUR: Oh, Princeton. Oh, all right. Sorry. Sorry.
(LAUGHTER)
I got you confused with the other one. I'm sorry. Well, I'm glad you clarified that for the record.
And How the World Works is glad to know that the nation's economy is in the hands of legislators who can't tell the difference between the Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/01/17/...gain/index.html
QUOTE(Slappy @ Jan 18 2008, 09:48 AM)
Financial sector is down despite the hoopla. C rebounded to even at $25 and I unloaded the options from yesterday arvo for a minor loss (.02per and commissions ).
Now watch it run.
Now watch it run.
I don't think it going to run very far.
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Jan 18 2008, 09:41 AM)
Woops. Breadth thrust.
Strike that.
QUOTE(fxfox @ Jan 18 2008, 09:37 AM)
Doc,
how high would you rate the possibility that Dow goes below 10k this year?
how high would you rate the possibility that Dow goes below 10k this year?
I can't give odds, but certainly that's not out of the question, nor is lower than that in 2009. See the latest Long Term Outlook in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition.
Anybody remember this thing? It's sooooo last weeeekkk!
QUOTE
UPDATE 1-Countrywide deal has $160 million termination fee
Reuters - January 17, 2008 6:10 PM ET
NEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC) may have to pay Bank of America Corp (BAC) a fee of $160 million if a deal to buy it falls through, according to a regulatory filing on Thursday.
Bank of America said on Jan. 11 it would buy mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp for 0.1822 of a Bank of America share, valuing Countrywide at the time at $7.16 per share or $4 billion. The filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said the merger agreement provides that, if the deal is terminated under specified circumstances, Countrywide may be required to pay Bank of America a termination fee of $160 million.
......
no ink possible
what a miracle
*DJ Reuters/Univ Michigan Mid-Jan Sentiment 80.5; Dec 75.5
*DJ Reuters/Univ Michigan Mid-Jan Sentiment 80.5; Dec 75.5
NZD:CAD looked bullish enough for me to dip my baby toe in.
When I first came to the Stool, Doc used to harp on not overleveraging. It rang on deaf ears at the time, but I now attribute that single piece of advice to making trading a pleasure instead of a burden.
When I first came to the Stool, Doc used to harp on not overleveraging. It rang on deaf ears at the time, but I now attribute that single piece of advice to making trading a pleasure instead of a burden.
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Jan 18 2008, 10:13 AM)
I expect this bounce to lasta lil' bit longer than the previous ones (wait, which ones? ). How long? Maybe a few days, or until the next credit shoe drops, which I think will be defaults in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets.
). How long? Maybe a few days, or until the next credit shoe drops, which I think will be defaults in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets.I took a look at days following big percentage declines and found that there tends to be is a small percentage gain( .3%. )In a bull market you would have substantial rallies.
Today there is risk of holding equities until Tuesday because of MLK holiday. Then you have the redemption risk all next week. The week of FMOC meeting looks good for a rally that might stick for a while.
dow needs to get above 3 day cycle MA at 12331 and spx at 1353.50 to avert a catastrophe.
Actually, spx needs to recover above 1365, but not necessarily today.
Actually, spx needs to recover above 1365, but not necessarily today.
I'm seeing some indications that this rally could stick. COmfirmation would be if they clear the 3 day cycle MAs cited above. If they clear the 3 day cycle MAs, next up would be the 5 day at 12413 and 1365.
qqqq already above the 3 and 5 day which have converged near 45.83. testing the 8 day at 45.93
qqqq already above the 3 and 5 day which have converged near 45.83. testing the 8 day at 45.93
Bucky in a squeeze btwn his 20 & 50 ma's. 20 appears to want a bearish cross. If the 20 nests at the 50 and turns up, commodes may get thrown out the window.
stop the presses............from Carl Futia
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: My 1340 stop was hit yesterday but I think the market is on the verge of a 100+ point rally, so I shall be a buyer today at 1341, again using a 25 point stop. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.
he is long bulls beware
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: My 1340 stop was hit yesterday but I think the market is on the verge of a 100+ point rally, so I shall be a buyer today at 1341, again using a 25 point stop. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.
he is long bulls beware
I was in SDS for 12 mins, lost 50c. Maybe the bottom is in. 
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jan 18 2008, 10:17 AM)
stop the presses............from Carl Futia
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: My 1340 stop was hit yesterday but I think the market is on the verge of a 100+ point rally, so I shall be a buyer today at 1341, again using a 25 point stop. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.
he is long bulls beware
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: My 1340 stop was hit yesterday but I think the market is on the verge of a 100+ point rally, so I shall be a buyer today at 1341, again using a 25 point stop. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.
he is long bulls beware
I wonder if he'll take his gains this time....
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jan 18 2008, 08:19 AM)
I wonder if he'll take his gains this time....
Naw! He'll be stopped out at 1316, so we'll drop to at least 1315.
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jan 18 2008, 10:17 AM)
stop the presses............from Carl Futia
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: My 1340 stop was hit yesterday but I think the market is on the verge of a 100+ point rally, so I shall be a buyer today at 1341, again using a 25 point stop. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.
he is long bulls beware
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: My 1340 stop was hit yesterday but I think the market is on the verge of a 100+ point rally, so I shall be a buyer today at 1341, again using a 25 point stop. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.
he is long bulls beware
Let's see, both Doc and Carl Futile think this rally could continue.
I'm so confused.
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jan 18 2008, 10:17 AM)
stop the presses............from Carl Futia
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: My 1340 stop was hit yesterday but I think the market is on the verge of a 100+ point rally, so I shall be a buyer today at 1341, again using a 25 point stop. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.
he is long bulls beware
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: My 1340 stop was hit yesterday but I think the market is on the verge of a 100+ point rally, so I shall be a buyer today at 1341, again using a 25 point stop. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.
he is long bulls beware
Good thing he is not using real money
I think a bounce over the next few days would be the best scenario for the bears.
I would love to see a multi-week rally to 1430 area.
I would love to see a multi-week rally to 1430 area.
1150 est President Bush outlines his economic stimulus package
at the White House
1400 est Bond markets close early ahead of Martin Luther King Jr.
holiday
at the White House
1400 est Bond markets close early ahead of Martin Luther King Jr.
holiday
Good thing i exited all my GS puts yesterday when 190 won't crack on a 300 point dow collapse.
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jan 18 2008, 10:01 AM)
what a miracle
*DJ Reuters/Univ Michigan Mid-Jan Sentiment 80.5; Dec 75.5
*DJ Reuters/Univ Michigan Mid-Jan Sentiment 80.5; Dec 75.5
what a farce! Cant imagine that number is correct.
EWG is coming back to the 200 ma. This maybe a low risk short entry point.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jan 18 2008, 11:11 AM)
I'm seeing some indications that this rally could stick. COmfirmation would be if they clear the 3 day cycle MAs cited above. If they clear the 3 day cycle MAs, next up would be the 5 day at 12413 and 1365.
qqqq already above the 3 and 5 day which have converged near 45.83. testing the 8 day at 45.93
qqqq already above the 3 and 5 day which have converged near 45.83. testing the 8 day at 45.93
This is the heaviest volume that I have seen. On 8/16/07 we got record volume on NYSE, today looks heavier, but they might have jammed it? OTH, that could mean that we're finally getting some support from IBs.
I'm in for a bunch of C March 25 calls at 1.80, 1.85 & 1.86.
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.