I guess this is is. What we've all been waiting for.

Sadly, some of us saw this coming.

I have an interesting anecdote.

While on my travels I had a chat with my cousin (who's really like a brother, we spent so much time together growing up), about my expectations for the market. He called me last Thursday and told me that he had transferred all of his wife's Philadelphia teacher retirement plan funds out of stock mutual funds. The agent told him that he would be "locking in is his losses." My cousin said to the guy, "well, the way I see it, I am preventing further losses."

I reassured him that I thought he had done the right thing.

limit down tomorrow

joe6pack blows up

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCtQL5b_rCM

How did you find that?

I guess the guy never hold of cutting his losses.

someone started a thread

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=114977

He musta been a follower of Bob Brinker.

Well, fortunately most of us are doing very, very well indeed.

Some of us, not as well as we should have because we had our chickinsheet stops too tight.

Doc, your work is appreciated. I never even heard of the stool until I came across your podcasts with Mish some time ago on streetiq.com. Been a follower ever since. Thanks again.

It sure was entertaining.

Yea, potty humor....who could have know it could pay off....who could have known indeed....

What an amazing day. Peru down 10%. Locals down here still calling for bottoms, cops, regulators, God's Army, etc. . 50% is forced margin selling, the other 50% is mutual fund redemptions. Goes to show how the whole process has to run its course. We are definitely on the reverse swing of the emotional pendulum we saw back in May 2006.

I callled my wife downstairs to witness this portrait of a loser turning into his self destructive phase...This remarkable self-portrait is one of a slow-motion suicide.

Notice the oscillating from self-hatred to hatred of the unforgiving markets ,and then multipy the scene by millions---absolutely remarkable, sociologiclaly speaking.....This is no laughing matter; and my wife, after listening to a few expletives, tried to leave. I demanded she stay and watch to the end, so that her foolish questions about what is happening would be held to a minimum.

Use this video as a surrogate for examining what the 68 endangered cultures and their minions are going through.

Very soon the mantra "Death before Dishonor" will be echoing throughout the cellular arrangementi known as his mind.

beardrech There is a subtle bipolarity in his use of the pronominal first and second person singular indicative ....almost unbearable

PS And by the way the economy of his psychological disposition allows him to join the overwhelmingly powerful forces that are destorying him while at the same time appealing for sympathy from the observers of his condition....so subtle are the dimensions of human thought...

Death before Dishonor....Does this mean we should stay away from tall buildings over the coming weeks as brokers do "The honorable thing"?

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couple charts on DXESX


[attachmentid=94862]



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Hm. a quiet day in the markets today

I just checked some numbers, and holly chit, if the market declines by 514pts like futures indicate, that would be a loss of -12.7% for January. This would be the worst January since at least 1900 and 50% higher than the next worst January in 1960 at -8.4%.

I think that the market loss of about 19% is probably already higher than all of the combined residential housing losses potentially incurred in the next decade---but, I could be wrong.

I also think that your average boomer lost all his housing sweat equity and now his 401k is all but wiped out in this Wall Street panic. The incessant bad news is finally paying off, they even sent out Cramer with his 2000 DOW down call on Friday.

Hey Charmin, Peter Schiff liked my idea:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9262.htm

Jim Cramer now says he is a Bear. Vertical assblast short-covering orgy coming soon?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4w-TwsvX4q4

all the talking heads are urging the sheeple 'not to panic'.

The crash in OZ is going to be of biblical proportions.

This coming battle is the biggest mismatch in history.

Akin to Mike Tyson fighting Michael Jackson.

It is as if some cosmic force has literally 'fattened up' the OZ population in readiness to be eaten alive.

Never ,ever have I seen a whole countrys population so totally unprepared for what is about to hit them.

Maybe after a morning gap down?

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Been toggling back & forth between Crapvision Europe and Bloomberg for about 2 hours. It's an orgy of 'human interest' crap. You wouldn't know that the European indices all lost 5-7% today.

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That chart in reality should be way up near $9 since it's leveraged 200% and follows the same index as the bull fund. If you saw my charts and observations last night on M2M using the Profunds Emerging markets Bull and Bear funds you'd notice they somehow have managed to underperform the short side of these emerging market funds by a significant amount. I don't have an answer why, but I did email Profunds and Direxion for an answer.

Jim Sinclair said today "If the Federal Reserve fails to take emergency action before the US opening tomorrow, you will see the DJI open down 1000 points as the public joins this professional panic."

prior to the housing affordability crisis,we had the water crisis.

Now we have a water crisis of completely different kind.

Too much water.

Weird how the world works at times.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/

It will be interesting tomorrow to see what sectors show relative strength. I'll be floored if it's the banks.

The Federal Reserve just needs to get out their Chief Information Officer..

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"Please people....Do not throw the babies out with the bath water...."

The Reserve bank chief in OZ is really between a rock and a hard place.

Inflation is thru the roof and yet the markets are plunging.

Australian Third-Quarter Inflation Probably Accelerated to 1%

By Jacob Greber

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Australian inflation probably accelerated in the fourth quarter and may prompt the central bank to raise borrowing costs for the third time in seven months when policy makers meet in two weeks.

The consumer price index rose 1 percent from the third quarter, when it gained 0.7 percent, according to the median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The central bank's measure of core inflation probably surged to a 16-year high, the survey showed. The Bureau of Statistics publishes its inflation report at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney tomorrow.

Inflation is likely to remain ``uncomfortably high'' as Australia's economy enters its 17th year of expansion, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said last week. The bank raised its benchmark rate to an 11-year high in November after third- quarter inflation accelerated above the bank's target.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...2pLQ&refer=home

If a waterfall were to commence tomorrow, it wouldn't be dissimilar from the events from last February. The Armstrong event triggered by a selloff in Beijing.

Elh,

Nice decision late last week to go short and refuse to be shaken out..

UK, France, and Germany lost a third of a trillion dollars in market cap today.
Roitizz article

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Bungster
This is what an airborne short looks like---Caption should read"I'll bet my life on this!"

beardrech

Bung,

I'm not saying there can't be a short squeeze, but the pain will be temporary and brief. Why fight gravity?

A few people on this board are too smart, and methinks they are just trying to outsmart themselves in the process.

id be very surprised if the market opens 500 down. probably get some fancy dancy rate cut.


if it does im going to be a big idiot and buy at some point.

most people will get up and go to work tomorrow.

ya know .... there is a big machine at work out there and they pull the levers.

this game is not nearly over. but there will be an end i bet at some point IMHO.


i had a great long weekend at the beach. it was a bit chilly though.

I wonder what they are saying on the bullboards today.

And to think! Back in October they said I had ZERO credibility.



That was one thing I was never worried about. Not for one second. I've always believed that if I do my homework every night and report what I see honestly and openly with no hidden agendas, then credibility will take care of itself over time.

When a guy like Richard Russell, who has been at this game for 50 some years, made his bear market call, I'm sure that he wasn't worried about his credibility either. Russell was ridiculed too, but he had it absolutely right.

When I found out that I had somehow been lumped in the same category with the great Richard Russell, believe me I was embarrassed, not because I thought I was wrong at the time, but because I thought it was so foolish of someone to lump me in with one of the great giants of the business. I was embarrassed, but at the same time honored, to be ridiculed in that way.

I'm just glad that my critics continue to talk about me, especially in the same breath with the greats of the business. It's a true honor.

You're going to buy AGAIN?

I'm surprised that you have any money left at all.

part of the answer is that this fund covers many different equity markets, I am not sure how they do it but it probably makes the it a slower ride up and down,so I will be interested in what it shows today given the wide breath of the overall emerging market decline. I started buying DXESX under $4 and bought another bunch around $4.5, goal is $15.

Why are you buying these funds when there are ETFs available for the same purpose?

He's probably referring to his Yahoo virtual portfolio.

I am looking for a prudent trade strategy for Tuesday ay-em...

Although I had contemplated loading up on FXP late last week, I did NOT (being wary of sudden Fed intervention of some sort) and am 100% in cash.

Oh well...

After today's global blood-letting, will Tuesday bring more of the same??

Or will enthusiastic perma-bulls, bottom-fishers, and other assorted 'knife-catchers' help the PPT to orchestrate a substantial 'rebound' in the overnight futures markets?

I believe traders must anticipate robust, lightning-strike 'emergency' Fed intervention (however futile and short-lived the market's response may be), an even more likely event if the Asian and European markets continue south early Tuesday ay-em.

I will be tempted to buy FXP in the pre-market hours Tuesday a.m., however I've lost considerable sums chasing moves in the past, therefore I will likely remain on the sidelines and watch the initial market panic from a safe viewpoint.

My guess is that traders (and unlucky market players facing margin calls) will be selling into any temporary strength that may materialize Tuesday and over the next few days...

and I'll likely be looking for a bounce to optimally position for the next severe downdraft...

OMG!!

This is truly amazing.

The orbs down 220 points.

This is the 12th down day in a row.

I think it has finally got the publics attention.

this game is not nearly over

You're correct there... ....And that scares me...

Well, I guess I fit that later description. I had a mother-in-law on a ventillator all last week. She's not your typical in law that you would want to pull the plug on. Really spry 86 year old. She pulled through and is now telling her usual dirty jokes.

She's been out of the stock market since the 70's.

I took the hint. Options are like little kids and beautiful teenage daughters: they require a lot of observation.

I'm not trying to create any sort of havoc here, but if you could, can you characterize the 'big machine' you are talking about? Is this some sort of 'New World Order ' global 'FED' or just the boys/garcons/hommes/blokes?

TIA

Commsec is down again.

Margin selling must be kicking in big time in OZ.

All the pundits were saying we should hit 7000 on the Orbs.

We hit 6700.

We are now at 5380

Down over 1300 points.

Lots of leveraged speculators will be jumping out of windows me thinks.

Over on Gloomberg futures I'm seeing the SPX and Nasdaq lightly green with the Dow red for 493 points....

imagine trying to sell your stocks thru comsec and this is what you see on your computer screen.

2147467259:Invalid connection string attribute
-2147467259:[DBNETLIB][ConnectionOpen (Connect()).]SQL Server does not exist or access denied.


Lots of smashed computers today I suspect.

Put a temporary hold on handgun sales..

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I think it is time to say thank you to Doc, cause he is our shepherd:

"The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he, who in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children."

thank you Doc for leading the stool army thru years of darkness.

"And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who would attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee".

uuhhm... which "penalties" do you have in mind?