http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices
Full Version: IDS World Markets Wed 23rd January 08
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
General euphoria today along with a massive momentum bounce. All Ords +5.8% and the screen is all green. Miners are +9.8%, Materials +8.4% and Energy +6.6%. Consumer Discretionary has the 'least' gain, +3.2%.
Miners soaring: BHP +9.4%, RIO +8% and in the golds, Newcrest +8%, Newmont +7.1% and Lihir +16.3%.
Oils way up: Woodside +8.1%, Santos +2.5% and Caltex +4.9%.
Australian Core Inflation Rate Is Fastest in 16 Years
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Australian core inflation accelerated to a 16-year high, adding to pressure on the central bank to increase interest rates even as the U.S. slashes borrowing costs to avoid a recession.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's measure of underlying inflation, which excludes the largest price fluctuations, surged 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. The headline consumer price index rose 0.9 percent from the third quarter and 3 percent in the year, a report in Sydney showed today.
``Australia's already serious inflation problem has become even more acute,'' said Stephen Walters, chief economist at JPMorgan Australia Ltd. ``The strong domestic case for a rate rise is being undermined by rapidly moving events.
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Australian core inflation accelerated to a 16-year high, adding to pressure on the central bank to increase interest rates even as the U.S. slashes borrowing costs to avoid a recession.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's measure of underlying inflation, which excludes the largest price fluctuations, surged 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. The headline consumer price index rose 0.9 percent from the third quarter and 3 percent in the year, a report in Sydney showed today.
``Australia's already serious inflation problem has become even more acute,'' said Stephen Walters, chief economist at JPMorgan Australia Ltd. ``The strong domestic case for a rate rise is being undermined by rapidly moving events.
King Says U.K. Inflation May Match Fastest Pace in a Decade
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said inflation may match the fastest pace in at least a decade this year and require an explanation to the Treasury, a sign that policy makers have limited scope to cut interest rates.
``It is possible that inflation could rise to the level at which I would need to write an open letter of explanation, possibly more than one, to the chancellor,'' King said in a speech yesterday. ``To put it bluntly, this year we are probably facing a period of above-target inflation and a marked slowing in growth.''
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said inflation may match the fastest pace in at least a decade this year and require an explanation to the Treasury, a sign that policy makers have limited scope to cut interest rates.
``It is possible that inflation could rise to the level at which I would need to write an open letter of explanation, possibly more than one, to the chancellor,'' King said in a speech yesterday. ``To put it bluntly, this year we are probably facing a period of above-target inflation and a marked slowing in growth.''
Well after the zippy opening scene the show was a bit of a let down.
All Ords closed +4.3% which would be substantial normally but not a big deal considering the recent drop. Miners continued as the leading sector, +8.7%, Materials next at +8.2% followed by Telecomms +7.4%. Property Trusts had the least gain, +1.5%. Centro is heading for zero, today's closing price 35.5c, -11.3%.
Miners were strong: BHP +9.3%, RIO +5% and the golds did even better, Newcrest +10%, Newmont +6.1% and Lihir +18%. Juniors also did a surge.
Oils did well: Woodside +7.6%, Santos and Caltex +2.8%.
Asia started high and dwindled off to mediocre gains: Honkers +5.3%, India +3.8% and Nikkers +2%. Taiwan in the red, -2.3%.
Over to UK/Europe:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
Singapore's Inflation Quickens to Highest Since 1982
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's inflation accelerated in December to the highest since 1982, placing pressure on the central bank to allow faster gains in the currency.
The consumer price index jumped 4.4 percent from a year earlier, after gaining 4.2 percent in November, the Department of Statistics said today. Economists had forecast a 4.3 percent increase. Prices rose 0.5 percent from November.
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's inflation accelerated in December to the highest since 1982, placing pressure on the central bank to allow faster gains in the currency.
The consumer price index jumped 4.4 percent from a year earlier, after gaining 4.2 percent in November, the Department of Statistics said today. Economists had forecast a 4.3 percent increase. Prices rose 0.5 percent from November.
2 mins till DAX opens.
Dow yesterday closed just a bit more than 100 points below fridays close. If that is a role modell for DAX than we still have to go up circa 450 points and still would be slightly below fridays close in DAX.
Dow yesterday closed just a bit more than 100 points below fridays close. If that is a role modell for DAX than we still have to go up circa 450 points and still would be slightly below fridays close in DAX.
QUOTE(fxfox @ Jan 23 2008, 02:58 AM)
2 mins till DAX opens.
Dow yesterday closed just a bit more than 100 points below fridays close. If that is a role modell for DAX than we still have to go up circa 450 points and still would be slightly below fridays close in DAX.
Dow yesterday closed just a bit more than 100 points below fridays close. If that is a role modell for DAX than we still have to go up circa 450 points and still would be slightly below fridays close in DAX.
That'd be the shorting opportunity of a life time.
The top question on business tv is next week's FOMC meeting:
"How much will ben cut?"
Like a bunch of junkies craving for the next fix.
"How much will ben cut?"
Like a bunch of junkies craving for the next fix.
U.K. Economy Grew Least in More Than a Year in 4Q
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. economy grew the least in more than a year in the fourth quarter after a jump in credit costs curbed demand for services including banks and brokers.
Gross domestic product increased 0.6 percent in the three months through December, the least since the third quarter of 2006, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The economy grew 2.9 percent from a year earlier.
The economy is heading for its worst performance since the early 1990s as the fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis curbs consumer spending and a halts a decade-long housing boom.
--------------------
ECB warns on growth
FRANKFURT, Jan 23 (Reuters) - European stocks extended their losses on Wednesday after the release of weak economic data and with the European Central Bank (ECB) reiterating that risks to growth are on the downside.
Euro zone services sector growth slipped more than expected to a near four and a half year low in January, while manufacturing activity steadied at subdued levels, PMI data showed.
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. economy grew the least in more than a year in the fourth quarter after a jump in credit costs curbed demand for services including banks and brokers.
Gross domestic product increased 0.6 percent in the three months through December, the least since the third quarter of 2006, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The economy grew 2.9 percent from a year earlier.
The economy is heading for its worst performance since the early 1990s as the fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis curbs consumer spending and a halts a decade-long housing boom.
--------------------
ECB warns on growth
FRANKFURT, Jan 23 (Reuters) - European stocks extended their losses on Wednesday after the release of weak economic data and with the European Central Bank (ECB) reiterating that risks to growth are on the downside.
Euro zone services sector growth slipped more than expected to a near four and a half year low in January, while manufacturing activity steadied at subdued levels, PMI data showed.
5 M2M pages on a rate cut day that closed in the Red. Is that bearish or what??
MOT...4 cents vs. 14 consensus.
Europe down more than 2%, maybe 100bp surprise cut would stem the losses.
The mainstream media is starting to get it. NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/business...=th&oref=slogin
QUOTE
The great moderation now seems to have depended — in part — on a huge speculative bubble, first in stocks and then real estate, that hid the economy’s rough edges. Everyone from first-time home buyers to Wall Street chief executives made bets they did not fully understand, and then spent money as if those bets couldn’t go bad. For the past 16 years, American consumers have increased their overall spending every single quarter, which is almost twice as long as any previous streak.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/business...=th&oref=slogin
SunTrust Banks: .01 vs consensus of .31
I watch the LM warehouse stock levels for tells on future copper prices. For the last few months they have been up around 240,000 tonnes and there didn't seem to be much future in copper. I hadn't looked in a few weeks but just checked again:
This is mildly bullish. I'll watch closer for the next few weeks.
Fast approaching yesterday's pre-surprise cut levels.
Fed needs to make a good add today, otherwise their credibility will be threatened.
I think we'll be making some kind of very ST low today. Not investment advice, just my slice of WAG.
Fed needs to make a good add today, otherwise their credibility will be threatened.
I think we'll be making some kind of very ST low today. Not investment advice, just my slice of WAG.
QUOTE(Slappy @ Jan 23 2008, 08:14 AM)
I watch the LM warehouse stock levels for tells on future copper prices. For the last few months they have been up around 240,000 tonnes and there didn't seem to be much future in copper. I hadn't looked in a few weeks but just checked again:
This is mildly bullish. I'll watch closer for the next few weeks.
This is mildly bullish. I'll watch closer for the next few weeks.
Some weeks ago I read articles on people hoarding copper waiting for higher prices and small mafia like groups of thieves dealing in stolen copper. Top is in?
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Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!
You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.
Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply.
If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page.
If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.
Many tanks for joining us!
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Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don't find the information helpful, I'll give you a full refund. It's that simple!Click here for more information.
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Just noticed that the Nads now hanging below yesterday's low.
Holy crap. The 10 year yield gapped down 17 basis points.
Sheer panic. Absolute bedlam on the buy side in the treasuries. 13 week bill yield now down at 2%.
Incredible.
We are going the Japan route. Heading for 0% interest rates as the stock and real estate markets collapse.
Anyone on a fixed income will be destroyed.
Sheer panic. Absolute bedlam on the buy side in the treasuries. 13 week bill yield now down at 2%.
Incredible.
We are going the Japan route. Heading for 0% interest rates as the stock and real estate markets collapse.
Anyone on a fixed income will be destroyed.
So 75 point emergency rate cut has now gotten officially 0 up value in the market. Doesnt this also destroy the future value of these surprise cuts, taking away one of the feds market goosing tools? I know doc would say the cuts wouldnt matter anyway, but it does take away the "buy the rate cut" rally.
QUOTE(Brisbane Bear @ Jan 22 2008, 09:40 PM)
the sharemarket always goes up.(SO DOES REAL ESTATE)
People are so conditioned to believe that the sharemarket always goes up.
History shows that the sharemarket always goes up.
We have lots of corrections along the way,but the sharemarket always goes up.
The conditions are ripe for a decade long bear market.
Too many people are way to sanguine about their superannuation and sharemarket investments.
An extended period of bear market activity is required to change attitudes and beliefs IMHO.
Don't panic about super losses
THE chief of Australia's peak superannuation body says people should not panic about the dive in global sharemarkets.
The Australian stock market suffered its worst one-day fall in more than 10 years yesterday, losing $96 billion on fears a US recession will hit global economic growth.
"It's very important people don't panic,'' CEO of the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Pauline Vamos told local ABC Radio today.
"Superannuation is a long-term investment, it's there to fund our retirement and we are going to retire for a long time.''
The share market is cyclical and will go up and down during that time, Ms Vamos said.
"The one thing we do know about the market is over the longer term for the vast majority of people it does provide a good return.''
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...5003402,00.html
People are so conditioned to believe that the sharemarket always goes up.
History shows that the sharemarket always goes up.
We have lots of corrections along the way,but the sharemarket always goes up.
The conditions are ripe for a decade long bear market.
Too many people are way to sanguine about their superannuation and sharemarket investments.
An extended period of bear market activity is required to change attitudes and beliefs IMHO.
Don't panic about super losses
THE chief of Australia's peak superannuation body says people should not panic about the dive in global sharemarkets.
The Australian stock market suffered its worst one-day fall in more than 10 years yesterday, losing $96 billion on fears a US recession will hit global economic growth.
"It's very important people don't panic,'' CEO of the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Pauline Vamos told local ABC Radio today.
"Superannuation is a long-term investment, it's there to fund our retirement and we are going to retire for a long time.''
The share market is cyclical and will go up and down during that time, Ms Vamos said.
"The one thing we do know about the market is over the longer term for the vast majority of people it does provide a good return.''
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...5003402,00.html
Doesn't Vamos mean GIT OUT! in Spanish?
Yesterday's rate cut was not about goosing the market. It was about reacting to a world wide market collapse. The Fed had NO CHOICE. They were too tight for weeks, and the markets around the world forced their hand yesterday. By lowering the target the Fed will be able to add reserves. Before at 4.25 they were trying to defend the indefensible, constantly draining cash from the market to try and hold the rate at 4.25, but the market simply wouldn't allow it any longer. The markets rule. Not the Fed. The Fed eventually has to cave and follow the market.
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QUOTE(DrStool @ Jan 23 2008, 08:33 AM)
Doesn't Vamos mean GIT OUT! in Spanish?
All these years, I never got it when someone would tell me to "vamoose"...
qqqq 3 day cycle projection now 40.50. Pretty shocking.
5 hr projection 42.10.
Once again, I remind you, I just report. You decide.
5 hr projection 42.10.
Once again, I remind you, I just report. You decide.
Aussie dollar, 3 month retail term deposit rate offered ** 7.60% **.
Issuer is Citibank..
Apparenlty they need the cash.
Issuer is Citibank..
Apparenlty they need the cash.
Something has to give today: DAX is down 5%, this means the US indeces have to go MONSTER STYLE down, or DAX has to EXPLODE to the upside, if the US goes green today or only slightly into the red. Still we have this MEGA imbalances due to the US holiday on monday.
fx: just some months ago we were discussing the opposite: How the dax could be so high above the 200MA compared to other indexes, remember?
Adjustments take time
Adjustments take time
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jan 23 2008, 05:30 AM)
Holy crap. The 10 year yield gapped down 17 basis points.
Sheer panic. Absolute bedlam on the buy side in the treasuries. 13 week bill yield now down at 2%.
Incredible.
We are going the Japan route. Heading for 0% interest rates as the stock and real estate markets collapse.
Anyone on a fixed income will be destroyed.
Sheer panic. Absolute bedlam on the buy side in the treasuries. 13 week bill yield now down at 2%.
Incredible.
We are going the Japan route. Heading for 0% interest rates as the stock and real estate markets collapse.
Anyone on a fixed income will be destroyed.
Unsustainable unless we have an immediate collapse of one of the IBs. Even then, rates will move higher IT -- note the posts above on inflation in the UK and Singapore.
BTW, I shorted ZB @ 122'18 in the overnight session.
spy 3 day cycle projection looks 125.50-126.
dia projects 113.50.
Either the SPY projection or the Dow projection has to be wrong. The disparity is too wide.
Of course, they both might be wrong.
dia projects 113.50.
Either the SPY projection or the Dow projection has to be wrong. The disparity is too wide.
Of course, they both might be wrong.
QUOTE(fxfox @ Jan 23 2008, 09:11 AM)
Something has to give today: DAX is down 5%, this means the US indeces have to go MONSTER STYLE down, or DAX has to EXPLODE to the upside, if the US goes green today or only slightly into the red. Still we have this MEGA imbalances due to the US holiday on monday.
I was going to say that the DAX has a lot of catching up to do, but Jetlag beat me to it.
I told youse. Youse guys is some sharp blades!
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Jan 23 2008, 09:14 AM)
fx: just some months ago we were discussing the opposite: How the dax could be so high above the 200MA compared to other indexes, remember?
Adjustments take time
Adjustments take time
yes, you are correct.
I am, buy!! stockmarkit, and wunndering where IS?? my part of the 150 bilion so I can play. plaese
QUOTE(fxfox @ Jan 23 2008, 09:11 AM)
Something has to give today: DAX is down 5%, this means the US indeces have to go MONSTER STYLE down, or DAX has to EXPLODE to the upside, if the US goes green today or only slightly into the red. Still we have this MEGA imbalances due to the US holiday on monday.
Where are German midcaps?
GOing on business trip early Friday, sold half my chorts.
Where si the stoolie who made such an eloquent analysis of Starbucks a few days ago? I just read that they sell something like a low cost coffee in some of their shops in Seatlle. They sell it for 1 dollar.
They are pretty effed i guess. They destroy their very own business model. Interesting.
They are pretty effed i guess. They destroy their very own business model. Interesting.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jan 23 2008, 09:22 AM)
I was going to say that the DAX has a lot of catching up to do, but Jetlag beat me to it.
I told youse. Youse guys is some sharp blades!
I told youse. Youse guys is some sharp blades!
I was up last night watching CNBS Europe and they were showing the Trichet testimony! That guy makes Allen Greenspan seem understandable! He spoke for 45 minutes and said nothing. (that if you didn't have a PhD in Economics that you'd understand) Obviously the markets understood him enough to know that what he said was that he was not going to lower rates! Brick
QUOTE(Jimi @ Jan 23 2008, 09:27 AM)
Where are German midcaps?
German Midcaps (MDAX) is trading at 8013 right now, thats down 450 points form the intraday high which was at 8463.
Should i also post the Smallcaps?
Bought QID on the open out 2 minutes later for a 30c loss, looks like another Bear suckin. 
qqqq now .65 off the pre market low. got back above line connecting yesterday's lows at 42.69. That's the line in the sand. if they drop back under, I suspect the bottom will drop out.
QUOTE(fxfox @ Jan 23 2008, 09:33 AM)
German Midcaps (MDAX) is trading at 8013 right now, thats down 450 points form the intraday high which was at 8463.
Should i also post the Smallcaps?
Should i also post the Smallcaps?
Mark Haines is nervous-Short term bottom is near to offset the Abby Joseph Cohen
high from yesterday afternoon!
spx critical shport 1273.75. Then around 1271, then 1262. Then nothing to about 1235. That's where I'd think about covering. hmmmm.... 
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jan 23 2008, 08:38 AM)
spx critical shport 1273.75. Then around 1271, then 1262. Then nothing to about 1235. That's where I'd think about covering. hmmmm....
from carl futia.............
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are now trading down 45 points below yesterday’s close. The ideal stopping point for the futures break is the 1230 level. A rally of 100-150 points should be the next development subsequent to a low near that level. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level once the low is in place.
DJ Fed Accepts $7 Bln In Overnight RPs
Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $7 Bln
Total submitted: $44.7 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $7 Bln
Total submitted: $27.8 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.45%
Weighted Average: 3.45%
High-rate submitted: 3.48%
Low-rate submitted: 3.2%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $5.05 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 1.7%
Low-rate submitted: 1.2%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $11.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.55%
Low-rate submitted: 3.45%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
The last short on the WSE Pro ETF chart pick list is just .50 from its target price. I hate to let it go, but 7% in 6 days is ok.
Not if it drops another 15% in the next 6 though.
Not if it drops another 15% in the next 6 though.
Yeah, sure, the morning after spx is down to My Fig Neuter level. No matter, I added puts yestidy.
No matter, I added puts yestidy.
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jan 23 2008, 09:44 AM)
from carl futia.............
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are now trading down 45 points below yesterday’s close. The ideal stopping point for the futures break is the 1230 level. A rally of 100-150 points should be the next development subsequent to a low near that level. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level once the low is in place.
Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are now trading down 45 points below yesterday’s close. The ideal stopping point for the futures break is the 1230 level. A rally of 100-150 points should be the next development subsequent to a low near that level. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level once the low is in place.
Has anyone else gotten the idea that that guy is really a spoof? Or am I just overly skeptical?
No one could be that bad without knowing what they are doing. Even a blind pig finds a chicklet from time to time.
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