http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Well, yes, up but not with any great enthusiasm. All Ords +1.5%, Property Trusts(!) leading, +3.3% followed by Telecomms +3.2%. Energy is up the least, +0.7%.

The big miners are messing around on low volume: BHP +0.9% and RIO +2.8%. Golds are mixed, Newcrest -3.7%, Newmont -2.5% and Lihir +1.7%.

Oils also mixed on low volume: Woodside +1.1%, Santos -1.3% and Caltex +0.9%.

New Zealand Leaves Key Rate at 8.25%, Currency Gains

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's central bank left its benchmark interest rate at a record-high 8.25 percent to combat accelerating inflation, saying the prospects of slowing global growth haven't curbed the domestic economy.

``The New Zealand economy is projected to keep growing reasonably well,'' Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said in a statement released in Wellington today. ``The labor market remains tight, domestic income growth is still strong and core inflationary pressures persist.''

Japan Export Growth Cools for a Second Month on U.S.

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's export growth slowed for a second month in December as a slump in U.S. demand sapped sales of cars and electronics in the country's biggest market.

Exports, the engine that drove almost all of Japan's third- quarter expansion, rose 6.9 percent from a year earlier, after climbing 9.7 percent the previous month, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an 8 percent gain.

Today's numbers suggest that record exports to Asia may fail to make up for slowing shipments to the U.S., where Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. get about a third of their sales. A steeper U.S. slowdown could also stifle demand in Asia.

Centro's New Chief Rules Out Fire Sale of Assets

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Centro Properties Group's Chief Executive Officer Glen Rufrano ruled out a fire-sale of assets as he seeks to persuade banks to refinance A$3.9 billion ($3.5 billion) in debt. The shares rose by the most in a month.

``We are not anticipating selling assets,'' Rufrano said today in Melbourne in his first press conference since taking over Jan. 15. The Australian company, which owns 700 malls in the U.S., rose 32 percent, the most since Dec. 19, to 47 Australian cents at 12:44 p.m. in Sydney.

``We don't have an issue with the banks; the relationship with stakeholders is good,'' Rufrano said. ``The problem we have is a balance sheet issue and the banks care about us being the custodians of their collateral. We are being open, honest and transparent with them to convince them we are the best managers of their collateral.'

Rufrano, who is traveling to the U.S. Jan. 26 to meet bondholders and bankers, said the company can't sell bonds in the current credit squeeze.

China GDP Expands 11.2%

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy expanded more than 11 percent for the fourth straight quarter, supporting global growth as a recession looms in the U.S.

Gross domestic product rose 11.2 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with 11.5 percent in the third quarter, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today.

``The economy still faces outstanding problems, including the risk of shifting from growing rapidly to overheating, and rising inflationary pressure,'' the government said in a statement today. ``Structural problems are still prominent, growth is not efficient enough and the economic system needs further reform.''

planning my eventual entry into SKF, and here's my game plan:

we're already at resistance for XLF. if we break thru 28, the next level of roofness is between 31 and 32.

because of double inverse flubbage, there's not a neat correspondence between the SKF and XLF charts, but XLF 31-32 roughly correlates to SKF shport @ 85-93--precisely the range in which i'll rub my hands with diabolical glee before shoveling into the SKF buffet.

[attachmentid=94987]
[attachmentid=94988]

Volume improved in the arvo but the market still seemed heavy. All Ords closed +2.9% with Property Trusts, +6.8%, maintaining the lead thanks to Centro's 35% bounce. Telecomms were next, +5.3% followed by Financials, +3.8%.

The big miners had respectable gains: BHP +2.7% and RIO +2.3%. Golds were waffly: Newcrest -2.6%, Newmont -0.8% and Lihir +3.1%. Juniors mixed.

Oils marked time: Woodside +0.9%, Santos +1.9% and Caltex +1.3%.

Decent rises in Asia: Singers +4.3%, Honkers +3.1%, Sth Korea +2.2% and Nikkers +1.6%. China lagging a touch, +0.4%.


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

How much more can J6P step up his or her borrowing?

Important thing to watch this morning is NOK and T earnings. Neither of these stocks has been in a bear market mode yet, so they have alot of room to fall. Both of these companies could also issue startling guidance regarding the consumer.

What we saw yesterday was all the names that have gotten slaughtered since october have sharp short covering rallies. I think there are alot of shoes still to drop on names that havent been hit yet, and not many people to buy the financials and retailers with any conviction yet.

Don't get me wrong, high volume up day with a 600 point range in the Dow is a pretty compelling case for a bottom. On the other hand I can't see a huge line of people waiting to crowd into the financials, homebuilders, or consumer discretionary retailers yet.

Look up Zimbabwe for a contemporary example of that policy.

Can't believe this thing remained basically unchanged:


I think retailers are the only ones getting the picture on the current assessment front.

Societe Generale has losses of 7.1 billion, 5 of which they are claiming comes from a "rogue trader"...and they have to go hunting for money to shore up? Does anyone else find that a bit disconcerting...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...g&refer=markets

``The transactions that were built on the fraud were simple, positions linked to rising stock markets, but they were hidden through extremely sophisticated and varied techniques,'' Bouton, 67, said in a letter posted on the bank's Web site.

``Banks, despite the implementation of sophisticated risk management solutions, are still under the threat that an employee with a good understanding of the risk management processes can get round them to hide his losses,'' said Axel Pierron, a senior analyst at Celent, an international financial research firm.



What a hoot. Bad bets are now called fraud. Oh, and risk management is not the problem. What a colossal joke.

from CArl Futia.....

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market staged an 80 point rally yesterday afternoon and this looks like a decisive rejection of the 1250 level which now should hold for quite some time. Resistance above the market today is at 1375 and support is at 1315. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level.

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

DJ Fed Accepts $5 Bln In 14-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $5 Bln
Total submitted: $45.6 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.25 Bln
Total submitted: $16.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.3%
Weighted Average: 3.34%
High-rate submitted: 3.35%
Low-rate submitted: 2.85%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $8.8 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 2.35%
Low-rate submitted: 1%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $3.75 Bln
Total submitted: $20.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.38%
Weighted Average: 3.41%
High-rate submitted: 3.42%
Low-rate submitted: 2.95%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

tried to refinance yesterday..... rates are not coming down as much as the FEd and Treasuries are dropping....not only that the standards have really tightened up..... Wanted to lock in my HELOC the fixed rate was 8.5% and my credit score is excellent.....

the bank was telling me not to lock in because rates are going much lower...that was a sign to lock in

Wikipedia defines the color "fuschia" as a hue of red. Coincidink?

Fuchsia is a color named after the flower of the fuchsia plant. Fuchsia is used as an alias (alternate name) for electric magenta.

There is also a somewhat redder and slightly less saturated hue termed fashion fuchsia that is used in women's fashion (it is also called Hollywood cerise).

The first recorded use of fuchsia as a color name in English was in 1892. [1]

DJ Societe General Rogue Trader Is Jerome Kerviel - FT


LONDON (Dow Jones)--The trader accused of fraud by French bank Societe
General SA (SCGLY) is called Jerome Kerviel, The Financial Times reported
Thursday, without revealing its sources.

SocGen had declined to name the trader, saying only that he was a 30-year
old Paris-based male who had worked at the bank since 2000 and his salary was
EUR100,000, including bonuses.

The bank said the alleged fraud will cost it EUR4.9 billion and force it to
make a EUR5.5 billion capital increase in coming weeks.



WHAT BS.....this guy is responsible for almost 5 billion euros?

Sallie Mae, the embattled student lending giant, said Wednesday that it lost $1.6 billion in its fourth quarter as it prepared for a jump in student loan defaults and took a hit from bad bets on its stock price.


Bank of America announced on Wednesday that it planned to raise $6 billion by selling preferred shares, one day after reporting a 95 percent decline in quarterly profit.

NYTimes

Buckaroo plunged back below his 50ma and continues to churn w/metals churning inversely. 86% chance of 50bps at FOMC next wednesday. You'd think that a pt and a qrter would be enough to send Bucky to a new low. Perhaps it will.

Qs starting out resting right on the 3 day cycle MA at 44.24 after a 5 hr cycle sideways down phase in the pre market. Generally a bullish setup.

However, that is negated if the MA breaks obviously. THe next shport would be the 5 day, now crossing above the 8 day at 43.71.

3 day cycle projection 45.40. Opening spike in the premarket hit 45.18.

spx 3 day cycle projection 1357.

dow projection 12380.

5 hr cycle projection 12,280, done

spx 5 hr proj 1345.

gdx 3 day cycle projection 51.50. 5 hr proj 50.75

Based on the fact that the market leaders yesterday and the day before were all the dogs of the decline, that suggests the rally was driven by a short squeeze. This is typical of bear market rallies. But they often take 3-6 days to burn out.

Are the Users at 64 about the 50% Fibo from the other day's highs???

Massive selloff in Treasuries. Yield up 13 bp on the 10 year. up 9 bp in the 13 week bill.

If the LOSS was $5b euro, and they liquidated all the positions that lead to this loss, then this guy had to have his fingers on MORE than that. 50% loss means he was playing with $10b. Who knows what the % loss was, but this is incomprehesible. What kind of risk management do you practice when someone can manage $5-15b and no one even knows about it? What kind of money managers can't keep track of billions? That's nuts - they should all be fired.

I am beginning to think that tracking traffic on this thread might be a pretty good indicator. 130+ users was definitely a bottom.

Perhaps that's the bulk of the short covering. Maybe we doji do for today and resume the death plunge manana.

Here we go. Heading straight for the 3 day cycle projections. Didn't even pause for breath at the 5 hr.

I call them SBF's- Sovereign Bagholder Funds. The idea that Central Bankers and Government Bureaucrats are savvy investors is laughable.

“He has not yet received his bonus for 2007, but I don’t think he will claim it,” Mr Bouton said.

My indicators just flipped long.....I've gone over to the dark side.. 100% long using both Rydex and QLD

dow 3 day cycle projection now 12475.

spx 3 day cycle projection 1371.

qqqq 3 day cycle projection 45.75.

However, all 3 are now running into significant resistance areas. If they stall here, this could be the end of it.

A 30 year old guy trading 5 bil euros?

DJ Fed Accepts $6.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $6.25 Bln
Total submitted: $43.33 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $14.1 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.54%
Low-rate submitted: 3.3%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $6.25 Bln
Total submitted: $25.25 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.42%
Weighted Average: 2.42%
High-rate submitted: 2.42%
Low-rate submitted: 2.1%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $3.98 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.59%
Low-rate submitted: 3.5%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).



DJ Fed Accepts $8 Bln In 7-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 7-Day RPs
Total accepted: $8 Bln
Total submitted: $44.05 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $13.45 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.4%
Low-rate submitted: 3.2%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $450 Mln
Total submitted: $13.1 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.35%
Weighted Average: 2.37%
High-rate submitted: 2.4%
Low-rate submitted: 1.75%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $7.55 Bln
Total submitted: $17.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.57%
Weighted Average: 3.57%
High-rate submitted: 3.57%
Low-rate submitted: 3.3%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

I thought corporations were supposed to buy back stock during down markets and sell into strength. Why did they spend 2007 buying back stock at a record pace happily goosing the markets to record highs, and now change their minds? Didn't they even change the SEC rules so companies can buy hand over fist in down markets w/o reporting restrictions?

If I didn't know they have the nation's best interest at heart, it almost seems as if the common shareholder is treated like a stooge and a patsie.

The old hammerhead stall. Straight up until zero airspeed, kick rudder, go full short.

Seems a reasonable place to get stuck here for a day or two. Out of some CNH calls I bought mid-day yesterday for good $. Picked up a single MAR SPX put just now.

Just in case ...

edit (5 minutes later): guessishoulda bought s'more o' 'dem puttzzzz ....

Multi year tax breaks for Home Builders and Banks. Relaxed regulations on how far they can apply losses against profits. And the new number for "stimulation" is going to be $300/person. LOL, what do they think people are going to do with $300 that is so stimulating.


"When the people find they can vote themselves money,
that will herald the end of the republic."

The Giggler