Yech. What a mess today. I guess they are going to wait for Wednesday to do something. Was that 2.75 stopout today a heads up?

Sold all my March C 25 calls this morning at 3.5.

Yikes! My system still says to be long...but I didn't like the market action into the close...So I trimmed my positions 50%...

Checking in from Herr Fox´s müterland

I was flashing trough the intraday board and it seems many of the best traders on this board were caught on the wrong feet today with their hunches for today`s action, probably because of the unexpected!? Fed Drain.

I also saw the post about M3 collapsing and immediately checked the M3 estimates that some people make [along with CPI estimates with the old method].

[attachmentid=95062]

It seems to be growing less, even less than M2, but not collapsing... so far!?

I must also express that I`m surprised for Shorty`s new found bullishness [though occasional] compared to his DOW -10000 GMTFO! style of yore. Maybe he`s just looking for another good short entry?

deleted. opps.

With my win record rising to above 12% I'd have thought you folks would have listened to old Speakeasy.

I'm surprised you guys are surprised. As if a bull trend can't have one bad day... or a few?

Rate cut next week promises more fireworks in both directions.

I must say, Lee, your cycle work is really beginning to grow on me. I think having your intraday calls has helped me get a better feel for the longer term work.

Tanks Speak!

I know everyone is expecting a trading range like the 2000 top but I have a feeling it is going to be from a much lower level than most think. This time is different. When the big boys come out and tell us their intentions, we better listen. I keep thinking of this article from the summer. I shorted tsx s&p 60 near the close yesterday and intended to add on a further rally. Shoulda woulda this morning but thought the pop would go higher and didn't. It looks like the broadening top is just being re tested and mostly has been already.

Don't listen to me though - I am often proven wrong.

The Bank for International Settlements, the world's most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood.

(slump=depression).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...cncredit125.xml

e-trade may be about to have small breakout. $6 looks possible.

Dow weekly

no wonder it found support where it found it: There was nothing but free air till the 11500-11750 area. There we have 38 fibo, the former high and the weekly 200 EMA which is the same as K-Wave's 900 daily and which often acts as support at the FIRST test.

Technically spoken this bounce is absolutely normal and there is no reason for bears to be pissed off. Patience is required and there is no need to hyperventilate. From time to time jsut look at the big picture, this helps to see clearer.

[attachmentid=95065]

countrywide REOs for California. Just read that they are having a big auction this weekend.

Google weekly

it stayed in its nice channel. Be carefull with trying to short it agressivly when it dips below 500, cause normally there it should bounce quite well, but if broken next target would be 400 where we have the weekly 200 EMA.

[attachmentid=95067]

nice charts fxfox. Also nice to see you back again!

yes, i love you too!

Since we'll probably have lots of troublesome news this weekend, let's start with something uplifting.

I've been involved with a set of inspiring events this past week with my work. This past Sunday night, a local Amish family lost their home to a fire in a nearby town. Starting Monday they had the site cleared and decided they would rebuild using a building plan of a house that one of their neighbors used this past summer. We (my office at work ) got them a copy of the print, changed the names, made a few minor changes and approved the new set of plans.

Today, I was out to inspect the underslab plumbing around noon, they already had the foundation done (Insulated concrete forms) and the house above it almost completely framed and under roof. My coworker was going to stop by later in the afternoon to inspect the finished framing so they could insulate.

The insulation wasn't on site yet at noon, but by 3:30 he called to say that he was out to check the framing and they already had the insulation finished and he gave the goahead to do the wallboard. They plan to have that finished tomorrow.

They must have had about 60 Amish guys on site, it was a beehive. Some of the guys were from as far away as Ohio. It was amazing to see. I really think that the family will be in the new house by the end of this coming week.

There's a lesson in there for all of us.

Anybody catch the story about the UFO sightings in Texas this past week?




To many people seeing, believing, and reporting. Government first said therer were no flights in the area but witnesses said they saw fighter jets trying to follow the UFO's. Today the gov said that'Ah yes, those jets, they were all our, everything was jets doing maneuvers. How about that'.

Few people buying that story either.

It was that bad French guys Air Force....

Story from NYT....

Tanks -- uplifting is always welcome. With all the spin and BS spewing at us from so many different sources, I sometimes forget what genuinely uplifting news sounds like.

In Dec a flood in Western Washington wiped out my Cousin's Dairy farm, killing all his cows and gutting the house, he lost over a million dollars in animals and equipment plus the house.
People came from all over Washington to help with the clean up of his farm, provide cash and replacement animals. Morman's came by the busload to do clean up work on the weekend's, Buddist's church's offered Visa cards worth up to $300 bucks each to flood victims.
I am still doing work with the Western Washinton Dairy Federation in raising money and getting replacement animals from all over the Western States. Overall the response has been unbelievable and positive a good feeling.

How is he doing in his efforts? Does he need more cash?

And here's a nice article on why debt is good :

That picture looks like someone blew a bubble and it has some light from the kitchen reflecting off of it!

Our biggest problem is that he is a Organic Dairy which require a cow be certified organic and there are very few organic dairy operations in Washington so the number of farmers that are able to donate animals is very small. So we are left with raising cash to buy organic cows/heifers and getting animal donations from other Western States.

To answer your guestion, yes we are still looking for donations, I just received a e-mail from Stonyfield Farms a large Organic producer and the family is donating cash and putting out the message in there newsletter which will go out to over 100K people.
Hopefully by the end of Feb we should have John's farm up and running at a level that he can make the monthly nut and hopefully grow the business.

a couple links to the story:
http://www.king5.com/topstories/stories/NW...W.829694b4.html


http://www.king5.com/localnews/stories/NW_...S.648768c2.html

I have heard told, here & elsewhere, a story from the crash of '87.

At the depths of the panic, a man - a stranger - walks into the S&P futures pit and offers to get long all takers.

I can't find a single reference to it.

Anyone have one, or know where to look?

I think everything will be just peachy. I googd "DOW 36,000,000" and got this...

DOW 36,000,000

Sorry, don't know about that, but essentially the same thing happened last Tues. --except that the person(s) could not be indentified or photographed because they made their trades through electronic trading. One story about it (with chart included) is here:

http://www.rickackerman.com/commentary/200...om_Shadows.html

Cap

Foxy,

That Dow weekly from 98 to 08 looks like a darn near perfect three peaks and a domed house to me!

DIA launched trading on January 20, 1998 with approximately $39 million in assets. During the first year of trading, DIA had an average of 600,000 shares traded per day. As of December 31, 2007, DIA had over $8.8 billion in assets and trades, on average, approximately 13 million shares per day.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/ar...0123&id=8082010

I find that very interesting that $39 million goes to $8.8 billion. Then there are any number of other ETFs (long/short and 2x long/short) in nearly every sector.

It kind of seems like a gambler's climax versus the old days when one bought a specific company for a specific outlook on a specific business. Anyway seems like too many ETF products and a huge disconnect with the business of evaluating specific businesses. There is a huge lock step in trading that indicates that ETFs have way too much prominence.

The question to ask is why are these new vehicles that fail to distinquish between individual companies in various sectors so popular?

The impact of ETF's seems to minimize individual company strengths/weaknesses perhaps because of lack of transperancy or failure of actual analysts being employed to analyze companies. I see this as a dumbing down process.

There is some highlighted thing in my post that appears as an ad when the cursor moves over it. This was not my doing and I hate it when I see it on this site, whether in my or other's posts.

THE DESPERATION OF CLOWNS - OR ONE MORE REASON TO SHORT MAC AND MAE TO ZERO



Jumbo Mortgaqes means jumbo bad debts

I don't plan to do anything until we have a chance to see the magnitude of the cut and the reaction to it.

Foxie, glad to see you posting again. Where are you working now?

The raise in the conforming loan limit from $417k to $700k + is not a done deal yet. It is proposed but must be passed in the Senate.

I read a credible account recently. I will try to find it. The Stanger walked into the Major Market Index pit and bought 1200 contracts at market. The MMI was a thinly traded market that mimicked the DJI. An order this size was enough. At critical points it doesn't take much to turn the market.

Let the nastiness begin. Maybe we will get some clarity in court.

Countrywide's Underwriters Sued for Fraud by New York (Update2)

By David Mildenberg and Karen Freifeld

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and 23 more underwriters of Countrywide Financial Corp. were sued by three New York agencies for allegedly helping the home lender defraud investors.

New York's city and state comptrollers and their pension funds added the securities firms, two accounting firms and Countrywide officers and directors as defendants in a federal securities-fraud lawsuit filed last August
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...VqQ8&refer=home

From the same article
Mozilo and other company insiders sold $869 million of Countrywide stock from April 7, 2004, to August 9, 2007, according to the lawsuit. On Aug. 22, Bank of America bought $2 billion of preferred stock in Countrywide to help rescue the lender and secured the right to match any buyout offer.


Is that a lot?

The next bubble. Where is Shorty?

January 23, 2008 (Mark Braly - Renewable Energy Access)

The U.S. economy is a bubble economy -- going from bubble to crash to the next mania -- and the new bubble is likely to be clean energy, says Wall Street insider Eric Janszen in the cover story of the February Harper's.

We've seen two bubbles, internet and housing, within a decade, writes Janszen, "each creating trillions of dollars in fake wealth."

"There will and must be many more such booms, for without them the economy of the United States can no longer function. The bubble cycle has replaced the business cycle."

Here's why Janszen thinks the necessary next bubble will be clean energy. The new bubble sector must:

1. already be formed and growing as the previous bubble (housing) deflates. Check.

2. have in place or in the works legislation guaranteeing investors favorable tax treatment and other protections and advantages. Check.

3. be popular, "its name on the lips of government policymakers and journalists." Check.

4. "support hundreds or thousands of separate firms financed by not billions but trillions of dollars in new securities that Wall Street will create and sell." Is that coming? Janszen is quite expansive in his definition of clean energy, including a massive retooling of the country's transportation and power infrastructure.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.ph...25661#post25661

further to CWDs post.

According to Mish,most States are out of money and have to make very unpleasant decisions with regards to their budgets.

Raise taxes or cut spending.Or likely both.

Or they can sue the arse out of all the big banks and insurance companies on Wall Street.

It will be a fornicateing free for all of unprecedented proportions as everyone tries to grab whatever money is left after the bear wreaks havoc on the economy and country and planet.

Let the fireworks begin.

The Schwab way to handle the markets.

Market yo-yo
In 2008, we expect market volatility to remain high. But be careful—one mistake that tends to be made over and over is selling out at the maximum point of panic. For a few weeks, some investor surveys have reflected extreme pessimism—a typical harbinger for a rally in the market. Finally, various measures of market breadth and volatility reached extremes this past week. The global panic we saw actually raises the possibility of a substantive bounce in the market—which may have already begun. However, if the economy proves to be in a recession, we expect a series of these extreme swings in the market in the months to come

Anybody know what this means?


http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/resear...refpid=P-994220

If you want to know what the Fraudsters want from Helo Ben, here is a video of Cramer interviewing the DONALD.

http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html?...m_ite=#10400206

I think it means that structured finance won't cover Da Boyz bills...hence an increasing reliance on the prop desk for profits...what better way to milk vast quantities of profit than through a series of these extreme swings in the market in the months to come

Traders paradise...buy and hold hell. Prop desk heaven.

foxie's weekend chart-o-rama continues:

NDX weekly

there is no need to worry bears, it is a typical technical bounce after strong support was hit. We had tripple support by uptend, fibo and weekly 200 EMA.

[attachmentid=95074]

I do believe Schwab has a simple translation of the above for all their shareholders: JUST RELAX

SHORTY _YOU WERE RIGHT - JUST 2008 not 2007

That article was posted on October 10, 2005 after a couple of years when T-bill rates were near 1% and the debt was $4.6 trillion. Today the debt is $5.1 trillion and growing rapidly again as tax receipts are falling and government spending is going through the roof. The deficit is widening at a rate of $5-10 billion per week more than the government's forecast from last July.

The trends are definitely headed in the wrong direction. As the flow of cash out of the CP market ebbs and these negative trends persist, interest rates should begin rising again, making the debt even more difficult to service.

I think the Feds are planning to inflate the UFO bubble in order to replace the inflating property bubbles. I will dong the night vision equipment and adult diapers makers at the open.

You just love to complain, don't you?

And publicly no less, when your gripe is with me. Get in touch with me, and I will explain to you how it is that a business needs revenue to offset expenses and make a profit. I guess you don't like those nasty old TV commercials, or the big ads that open first when you click on Marketwatch.com or the NY times, or any of a number of major websites.

Yeah, you certainly know how to ingratiate yourself with people. Must be real popular with friends and family.

But I'll make you a deal. Send me a check for $2000 and I will pull the text ads for, say, 6 months.

Fair enough?

Yes. Buy low and sell high.

Since I have set the board not to repost those cumbersome nested quotes of quote boxes inside quote boxes, inside quote boxes, the downside is that sometimes it isn't clear what the quoted box refers to. That's where those little arrows in the lower right corner of the quote box come in handy. Click on it and it will take you back to the original post where you can read what that post quoted.