Closed















http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

National holiday here in Oz (Australia Day).

Party on....

My calendar from Ireland, above my desk, says Australia Day was Saturday, 1/26 -- is that wrong? Or do they extend the holiday to Monday?

Thanks for your work, Aussiebear.

Australia Day was Saturday. Working day off observed today, the Monday following.

Don't worry bulls, China is down 5% because of a snowstorm.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080127/D8UEFUI00.html

The bank says the trader, Jerome Kerviel, did not appear to have profited personally from the transactions and seemingly worked alone - a version reiterated Sunday by Jean-Pierre Mustier, chief executive of the bank's corporate and investment banking arm.

But, in a conference call with reporters, Mustier added: "I cannot guarantee to you 100 percent that there was no complicity."

Kerviel's lawyer said the accusations of wrongdoing against his client were being used to hide bad investments by the bank related to subprime mortgages in the United States.

"He didn't steal anything, take anything, he didn't take any profit for himself," the lawyer, Christian Charriere-Bournazel, told The Associated Press by telephone. "The suspicion on Kerviel allows the considerable losses that the bank made on subprimes to be hidden"

Suze Orman says US Stocks with dividends over 6% are a Buy. Did not elaborate which ones.

"Don't be afraid of the stock market! Climb Aboard!" ... says to Larry King.

the glowing portrait of lofty magnanimity:

Countrywide's Mozilo Forgoing $37.5M
Monday January 28, 12:22 am ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
AP NewsBreak: Countrywide CEO Mozilo Will Give Up $37.5 Million in Severance Benefits

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Countrywide Financial Corp. CEO Angelo Mozilo, under fire over the size of his potential payout from the proposed sale of his troubled mortgage company, says he is forfeiting some $37.5 million in severance pay, fees and perks he was scheduled to receive upon his retirement.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080128/countrywide...ancial_ceo.html

from william gibson's neuromancer:

Molly insisted on coating him with bronzer, saying his Sprawl pallor
would attract too much attention. "Christ," he said, standing naked in front
of the mirror, "you think that looks real?" She was using the last of the
tube on his left ankle, kneeling beside him.
"Nah, but it looks like you care enough to fake it. There. There
isn't enough to do your foot."

"Have your friends and relatives buy all the stock they can! The train's leaving the Station!!!"

-Suze O.

Bearish day in Asia: China -6.9%, Honkers -5%, Singers -4.3% and Nikkers -4%.


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Let's hope no rogue trader has made billion dollar wrong-way bets against a closed market and his employer suddenly feels like liquidating synthetically in the remaining open markets around the world.

I would detest her as an obvious shill. But she did start chewing out housing bubbleheads in 2005 telling them all to GTFO. She has pretty good access to common sentiment through her fans. And she does react to overly bearish and overly bullish sentiment and try to move people contrariwise. If this is an ordinary decline it will be good advice. If it is a history making break like in Japan it might not fare so well.

...

At the moment, things looking UGLY in Asian Mkts--

http://new.quote.com/global/stocks/asia_australia.action

Here's a Reuters story from last Friday afternoon (posted 18 minutes before the NYSE close)-- don't know if anyone has posted on this...

Falling markets hammer two Chinese hedge funds

By Dane Hamilton

NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Two of last year's top-performing China hedge funds, Golden China and Golden China Plus, hit rough patches this month as Chinese equities fell, but the manager said it would pour $20 million into the funds in a vote of confidence, according to a letter to investors.

Both funds are managed by Hong Kong-based Greenwoods Asset Management trader George Jiang. The $580 million Golden China was up 100.29 percent in 2007, while the $125 million Plus fund was up 31.06 percent, according to the letter, which was dated Jan. 23 and obtained by Reuters.

But the recent sell-off in Chinese markets, on worries about fallout from the spreading U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and fears of inflation, pushed down performance by more than 10 percent for both funds, the letter stated.

"So far in January, we are penalized by the sharp sell-off in the market and the fund suffered a double digit drawdown," Greenwoods said in the note. A drawdown is a decline in asset value.

Greenwoods expressed confidence in the market and its strategy, however, saying "we will increase our investment in the funds by no less than $20 million" by Feb. 1, 2008.

"Chinese equities are Dover Sole under the present market condition, and it's not the time to cash up," the note stated. "On the contrary, it's a great time to take advantage of investors' fear and market irrationality to seek those mis-priced quality companies."

more...

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...20080125?rpc=44

--------------------------------------

It's easy to be bullish with other people's money...

Bet they're getting their asses pounded this ay-em.

My guess is the vicious cycle of de-leveraging/liquidation accelerates... and the "vaporization rate" of fictitious capital will continue to exceed any reflation efforts by TPTB.

P.S. What's the probability this current sell-off is, again, the Market 'black-mailing' the Fed for another 75 bps?

What if gold starts blackmailing the Fed for raise?

Chinese A-shares closing in on a 30% loss since October's top.

Chinese new year starts on the 6th of February ending the "lucky" golden Pig year.

Will most chinese lock in on their lucky pig profits or risk an encore of last year's market reopening dumpage?

[attachmentid=95097]

Obvious shport just under 4300. If this breaks, I think grasshopper will lose his patience.

Aren't *hedge* funds supposed to be beyond "rising" or "falling" markets?

I made the correction.

Amazing how the pundits (like Orman) and the players always say the exact same things in the first leg of any bear market. If you go back and look at 2000 or 1973, it's always the same old crap.

Good Morning!

Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!

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Many tanks for joining us!

Doc


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While the rest of the world takes a pounding, the US comes in to save the day. Ho hum. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Maybe they'll earn their stripes as "Junk Funds" soon.

I'll entertain your rhetorical question because I'm also appalled by the misnaming of financial assets. As you know there are many types of hedge funds nowadays, and the name "hedge fund"in truth would only apply to a (very small) subcategory of the Hedge fund industry.

The financial industry is very prolific in making up names that don't correspond to the product they're selling. Doesn't subprime sound much better than junk? And high yield certainly is more appealing than junk bonds! Rule of thumb, funky name = junk.

Optimistic world view from our very own elh. Bubbling with enthusiasm.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/cutting/?p=140

Talk about a guy who gets out of the wrong side of the bed every morning! But always a great read, and almost always right on the money.

As depressing at it may be, we should all get in the Cutting the Bull habit daily.

"The British government on Monday confirmed that it’s tentatively backing a plan presented by its advisor, Goldman Sachs" nuff said

Don't we have the same advisor?

Don't forget Gordon Brown made someone a huge favor by selling a big chunk of England's Gold at the absolute lows that he guaranteed by pre announcing the trade.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle1655001.ece

£2 billion back in April with Gold price rising 50% since then, that gives a cool £3Billion, that's up there with SocGen's "little incompetence" problem.

Gold's looking good here. At new highs with no sign of a double top knockback. I am long and strong and looking to add if we punch through $930.

=DJ ECONOMIC VIEW: The Great Fiscal Stimulus Package ... Of 1929

By Michael Kitchen
A Dow Jones Column


Lately, whenever the market has a bad day, the reflex among financial-news
editors is to compare our current situation with 1987 and wonder if a "Black
Monday"-style crash is on the horizon.


But some observers draw a darker metaphor, noting that much of what we are
seeing now also took place in 1929. As we know, that meltdown - unlike the
1987 crash - was not followed by a happy ending, but rather by a decade of
poverty, shantytowns and sporadic famine.


Popular imagination has the Great Depression opening with a bang in October
1929. We forget that even by December of that year, the market had no idea
what was really in store. After a period of wild, bipolar volatility, stocks
had taken two big tumbles (a 12.8% drop on Oct. 28 and an 11.7% fall the next
day) while the top bankers and "captains of industry" rushed to shore up the
market. By November, the Dow had hit its low for the year at 198, down from
the giddy September high of 381.


But, the financial pundits and government leaders of the day insisted, the
economy's fundamentals were still strong. Mass unemployment was, some months
after the crash, still just something that went on in Germany and Britain.
America was strong and merely needed a push to keep the financial markets from
harming the broader economy.


With that in mind, Herbert Hoover - only nine months into his presidency -
assembled leaders from the public and private sectors to create an
economic-stimulus package. Among the measures, Time magazine reported at the
time, was a promise from Congress to offer bipartisan support for a tax-cut
package. The proposal called for $160 million in tax relief - only about $22
billion if adjusted against the gross domestic product at the time, and
therefore much smaller than the plan under consideration here in 2008.


Also on the table was an assurance from the Federal Reserve that it would
provide cheaper credit. Granted, the Fed had much less power over the money
supply in those days, mainly because the amount of liquidity it could create
was limited by the supply of gold it held to back the dollar.


Of course, there were a litany of public-works projects, plans for new
corporate investments, and even a promise by Henry Ford to raise wages at his
auto plants.


None of this worked. What was first seen as speed bump to the expansion of
American finance became something much larger. The Dow continued falling,
hitting 157 in 1930, 73 in 1931 and finally a mere 41 points in 1932. It did
not reach its 1929 high again until 1954, a generation later.


Certainly, our economy now has far more differences than similarities with
the economy of 1929, and few expect a new depression for the decade ahead. But
it's also worth remembering that the best laid plans of presidents, chief
executives and senators can sometimes come to nothing.

for the last 30 minutes, just prior to the cash open, I've watched SOMEBODY buy 500-lots of e-mini S&P futures over and over, tens of thousands of contracts

them some big trades

qqqq has crossed above 3 day cycle MA at 43.97 with 3 day cycle indicators edging to buy side. Resistance at 5 day cycle MA 44.41

dow opens below the 5 day cycle MA at 12241, spx below 5 day cycle MA at 1336.77.


qqqq drops back to 3 day cycle MA at 43.96. likely to get ugly if this rolls over. next shport line looks like 43.42

shport lines 12162, 12111, 12000

on spx at 1327.50, 1322.50, 1311.50, 1300

interesting...........

1400 est Tsy Deputy Secy Kimmitt holds media conference on
sovereign wealth funds and the world economy
1415 est Tsy Asst Secy Ryan speaks on the liquidity of financial
markets in New York

DJ Fed Accepts $10.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $10.25 Bln
Total submitted: $32.7 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $10 Bln
Total submitted: $16.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.5%
Weighted Average: 3.51%
High-rate submitted: 3.52%
Low-rate submitted: 3.3%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $250 Mln
Total submitted: $6.55 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.33%
Weighted Average: 2.33%
High-rate submitted: 2.33%
Low-rate submitted: 2%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $9.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.58%
Low-rate submitted: 3.5%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

State of the Union tonight shorty.Hammerin Hank in the pits this morning?

Annudder 75bp cut?

A $6.5B add ahead of the FOMC.
Does anyone else hear the music?
The Fed's rocking the house.

pump up the volume
pump up the volume

pump up the volume
pump up the volume

brothers and sisters
pump up the volume
we're gonna need you

brothers and sisters
pump up the volume
pump that baby

brothers and sisters
pump up the volume
we're gonna need you

brothers and sisters
pump up the volume
pump pump it ay

rock the house
rock the house

ah yea
ah yea

do it
do it do it

yea yea
yea yea

boogie down bo bo boogie down
boogie down

here we go, c'mon

do it
do it
do it

pump up the volume
pump up the volume
pump up the volume
dance dance

rythmic, systemic and world control
magnetic, genetic, dement your soul

U.S. 2007 median new-home sales price up 0.2%
U.S. Dec. median new-home sales price down record 10.9%
U.S. Dec. new-home inventory 9.6-months, 26-year high
U.S. 2007 new-home sales fall to 774,000, 11-year low
U.S. Dec. new-home sales below 645,000 pace expected
U.S. Dec. new-home sales fall 4.7% to 604,000 pace
U.S. 2007 new-home sales fall record 26.4%

Dow 5 hr cycle projection 12020

I wonder why the buy the emini and not just the regular. Would have save a lot of money on commissions.

spx 5 hr projection 1314.

Both dow and spx are hitting initial shport lines 12115 and 1321.50. 5 hr cycle projections are contingent on these breaking.

Bucky rejected at 20 ma which just crossed down thru the 50 ma. TL about 75.3. Buggers faith may yet be rewarded in the near term.

I forget specifically, but I seem to recall Rog mentioning that the eminis are reported differently from the fullsized contracts, possibly on the COT reports or something like that.

It think this says it all.

At this rate, they might as well nationalize the entire economy and transfer legal ownership of all production to the bankers. I had speculated that Britain would be prepared to repeat its Northern Trust actions with other British banks, and with a delusional socialist prime minister who actually ignited the UK housing bubble, it looks like this may very well come to pass.

It’s times like this when you see with glaring clarity what the real purpose of a central bank is. It’s not to defend the currency or control inflation (what a joke) or to manage economic growth prudently. Quite simply, the primary purpose of a central bank is to enable unabated expansion of the state while protecting the downside risk for the financial sector when things go bad. It is not ironic that elitists’ poker hand is being shown in Britain, as the world’s first central bank was invented there.


I think the name of the ruling party in the Labor party,also known as the Socialist Party.

They took $10 billion at 3.5 and $250 million at 2.33, so I wouldn't necessarily read much into that.

Prolly the same guy that was pissing behind the exhange.

I will be leaving at 10:45 for the balance of the day to take care of some family business. If I am not back by 4PM would one of you kindly open M2M?

Tanks!

1. PPT, finally?
2. Carl futia opened a hedge fund