http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

I was expecting an up opening but there you go. All Ords -1.2% with only one green sector, that being Healthcare +1.9%. Property Trusts is down the most, -3.4% followed by Financials -1.4%.

The two mining leaders are both slumping: BHP -1.4% and RIO -1.9%. Golds looking good: Newcrest +0.2%, Newmont +3.2% and Lihir +2.6%. Juniors up.

Oils mixed: Woodside -0.6%, Santos -2.3% and Caltex +1%.

Is Euroland the next RE crisis?

ECB aid to Spanish banks matches Rock rescue
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 1:27am GMT 29/01/2008



Spanish banks are issuing mortgage securities and asset-backed bonds on a massive scale to park at the European Central Bank, using them as collateral to raise money at favourable rates from the official credit window in Frankfurt
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...bcnspain128.xml

An iffy sort of day here. All Ords closed -2.2% with Healthcare remaining the only green sector, +1.3%. IT took over the downside lead, -4.6%, next in line was Property Trusts, -3.7% followed by Financials -3.1%.

The big miners continued to fall: BHP -3% and RIO -4.2%. Golds were mixed: Newcrest -2.6%, Newmont +3.4% and Lihir -0.5%. Juniors up.

Oils took a tumble: Woodside -2.8%, Santos -4.9% and Caltex flat.

Asia doing the rollercoaster: Honkers +2.3%, Nikkers +2.7%, China +0.7%.


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Japan Job Vacancies Fall; Unemployment Holds at 3.8%

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's job vacancies fell to a two- year low and the jobless rate was unchanged, adding to evidence that consumer spending may slow.

The jobless rate stayed at 3.8 percent last month, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo.

Consumers, who are the most pessimistic they've been in four years, face falling wages, the fastest inflation rate in almost a decade, and a stock market that's plunged 13 percent this month. The world's second-largest economy may already be in a recession, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said yesterday.

considering a schwing-scalp here. MACD curling up (but below the zero line) and RSI about to poke thru 50. if she breaches both resistance and the 20d MA in the high 10s, 12 shouldn't be too difficult.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RES&p=D&b...id=p29371439854

another short-term schwing consideration, market permitting. P/E of 4ish.

positive divergences on the RSI and CCI. looks close to breaking above the 20d MA, which it hasn't been able to do for more than four months.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WNR&p=D&b...id=p45319519923

here's the weekly view with shport:
[attachmentid=95129]

One of Jim Grant's faves...

I have posted Chicago Bear's research on the Fed over at the WSE.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2219

Tanks to CB and IAM!

Orange You Glad You Don't Live Here?

Thanks CB again for the charts. Now, if any journalists or analysts mention one word of stocks going up when fed cuts, please forward that link to them. I got a feeling that link is going to fly around the web like wild fire.

Going to be interesting to see what follows the gap up opening.

qqqq already hit 5 hr cycle projection of 44.72. Not a clear view on the 3 day cycle projection. 5 day looks 44.95

3 day cycle projections 1367 and 12700

gdx 3 day cycle projection 52.10.

resistance areas 12,450 and 12,500. on spx, 1360 and 1364-67

qqqq 44.72-.76 and 45.

Pigmen still squeezing hommie shorts except TOL for some odd reason.

DJ Fed Accepts $14 Bln In 2-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 2-Day RPs
Total accepted: $14 Bln
Total submitted: $35.65 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $6.35 Bln
Total submitted: $11.65 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.37%
Weighted Average: 3.43%
High-rate submitted: 3.49%
Low-rate submitted: 3%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $9.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 2.3%
Low-rate submitted: 2%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $7.65 Bln
Total submitted: $14.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.42%
Weighted Average: 3.42%
High-rate submitted: 3.42%
Low-rate submitted: 3.15%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

Fed did another add today. Fed Funds and repo rates are all near the 3.5 target. No tell on next action.

GS red, leading the way to the exits again ....

*DJ Dutch Fin Min: Credit Crisis Is Not Over Yet, End Uncertain


*DJ Dutch Fin Min: Continued Rate Cuts Seen As Sign Of Panic

*DJ Dutch Fin Min: Fed Lowering Rates Cannot Continue For Long

*DJ Dutch Fin Min: Europe Will Feel Impact US Economic Slowdown


*DJ Dutch Fin Min: Lower US Rates Have Halted Equity Selloff

Tanks for the post.

Now that we all know to fade the Fed, do you short ahead of the FOMC?

View of the day: US equity indices
Ashraf Laidi, CMC Markets US

Published: January 28 2008 16:39 | Last updated: January 28 2008 16:39

One essential indicator for the future performance of US equity indices is the aggregate margin debt used by member firms of the New York Stock Exchange, says Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign exchange strategist at CMC Markets US.

He says rapid declines in margin debt correctly predicted the prolonged bear markets in equities in autumn 1987, autumn 1998 and spring 2000.

Such declines in debt result from the execution of margin calls as client losses escalate to unsustainable levels, which is the case during mounting market volatility.

Mr Laidi says that after reaching a record high of $381bn in July last year, member firms’ margin use declined for the following four months, reaching a low of $322bn in December.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a9a5ed8-cdbb-11...0077b07658.html

No, Short on the pop? I see 12,700 on the Dow....

qqqq pulls back to the 3 day cycle MA at 44.27. next shport would be the 5 day at 44.23. trendline at 44.21.

3 day cycle indicators are in a pause in the uptrend.

That operation is exactly like the one the FHLC did in the U.S.

In Europe, especially in Spain, the housing market is probably in much worse shape than the U.S., in terms of prices relative to incomes and similar indicators. Where they fare off better is in the financing structures, which aren't as bad as the americans.

Must be smokin' some potent weed in the back room of an Amsterdam tea room with a 15 year old Eurobabe.

Hey DFM, see CB charts ... (link sent)

He's a Laidi, woa woa woa, he's a Laidi

-Tom Jones

Those Dutch are such party poopers!

DJ Fed Awards $30B 28-Day Credit Via Term Auction Facility


*DJ Fed Term Auction Facility Awarded At Stop-Out Rate 3.123%

Well, then, I guess the question is whether the Fed will cut 1/4 or 1/2.


Or 3/8?

I like it. 3/8!

Fool everybody.

Bucky's price and secondaries all bouncing along lower trendlines.

qqqq breaks all the shport lines. next is at 44. 3 day cycle indicators starting to go to sell side. If so, it's a lower high.

What's a facility?

The only facility I'm aware of is the one where I wake up with a black and white striped rash and seeing grey bars ...

Object-oriented Fed Speak ... metaphorize and propagandize binary magnetodollars into some physical structure everyone can relate to.

I wonder if Sun gave the Feds the latest Java update?

Number of bidders down again, as was the bid to cover. The trend has been straight down since the first one. They barely sold this one out. I guess the crisis is over. Strange that there's so little demand for funds at 3.12.

It's the TAF. AKA Taffy.

Or sucker.

So it's the sucker auction.

qqqq bounces right back above the shport lines. Was the downtick a Shakeout?

And 7/16 on the discount rate, just for a little icing.

So they added for the second day in a row ($3.75b). This $14b doesn't expire until Thursday. That leaves no expirations tomorrow. Any add tomorrow is just juice for the applause meter. A$$blast in the making - I smell the brownies baking.

Today was just the taffy auction, right? When does it settle?

BSC pricing $500m in debt. looks like +350-400 bps. May weigh on financials.

Futures are pricing in an 75% chance of a 50bp cut.

So, in order to give the market what it wants, they would have to cut 50 x 0.75 = drum roll, please........

3/8

Market dip on the open was due to rumors of a non-subprime related writedown at JPM.

Market still wants to go higher in the short-term, though.

The auction was yesterday. results today, settles Thursday.

A lot of times on the second day of a 2 day meeting they don't do any OMO.

Last time the Fed cut 3/8 was in Nov.'87

Are they going to go dormant until 2:15 tomorrow?

qqqq 5 day cycle indicators on the cusp.

JPM is a ticking time bomb, IMO. They are the king of the hedge fund and has the most derivatives under management of any bank. The write-downs are coming. It's really just a matter of how long they can hide.

It's also perched nicely at the top of the downtrend channel. Looks like a good place to short.