I repeat, yet again.....

Well the consensus of our little poll over on IDS as of 3:59 PM, was that I should sell my little DXD trade. But I didn't listen. Will Doc regret it?

I replied "who gives a crap" but what I meant was.... hold it and add on the next rally.

Church lady says..."Don't sell"

[attachmentid=95215]

Doc,

Greed is Good.........

We haven't seen a finger like that since 2001.

OK, gotta bug out for a while. lot's of writing to do. See you in a few.

If you want to hear a hedgie explain the problem with MBI, watch this interview. It was done 10 Jan , but more stuff keeps coming out.How long can they keep this Shell game going? another cut next week

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvI3xZK34Tg

So I was long QLD into the rate cut, and then sold it near the bottom of the first pullback(75.57). Not terrible, still made money on the trade, but certainly didnt feel great about it. So then I decided to go ahead and buy SRS at 107 since the market had reversed. I proceeded to get shanked out of that at 105 when I saw the market screaming to new highs.

Better get workin on that taco bell application.

Todays top in Dow was exactly at the 38 fibo of the 14200 top to the recent low and it was almost exactly at the 1 hour EMA 200. Thats huge double res, so pullback is normal. We have to wait if there will be follow thru to the downside.

Bear Sturds Analcysts when asked what's the next bubble with all the aggressive cutting, answered: CPI, CPI is the next bubble.

Technically market behaving quite nicely...
Turned right at resistance...

I had GS straddled with the 190 puts and 210 calls.
Sold the 210 calls on the spike at 3.4 for 35% and holding the 190 puts only.

Well done.

aSS expectorated and pre-pontificated here yesturday and turday, the minor spike rah-rah rally fizzled

laSSt chance fer bully bail is tomorrow's likely morning-after Benstantiation gov't showprop fer EOM fartpolio fraudprints

after that, the forced liquidation carnage can reamsume

1-800-FIDELITY ext.GMTFO

"Hello, and welcome to...."

"SELL!"

"...Fidelity, your one-stop...."

"SELL IT ALL NOW!"

"...financial services company...."

"HEY! WHAT THE %#$F&*^&*??? SELL THAT SHIT!"

"...How can I help you today, sir?"

"I SAID..."

"Please hold, sucker.........I mean, sir................"

Good trade I.A.M.

Here is Bera sterns. Bought some March 95 puts at the open today. I se 80. Some will see lower. No greed left in me however.

I was also watching BSC....was hesitant because it closed above the 50 on 2 straight days. Great Trade!

Bill Gross on CNBS- the FED has got to figure out how to stop the decline in home prices

Yep, SPX soundly slapped back at the 20 DMA.....

[attachmentid=95218]

And here is the playbook for it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...in_page_id=1811

I guess it all depend on where you draw the trendline. That was one hell of a squeeze with some BIG volume. GS almost tagged the 50....the key is..."almost".

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. housing industry took a sigh of relief today as Ben Bernanke created a new division of the Federal Reserve. This new division will be tasked with paying mortgages on first and second homes of all Americans for the next 24 months. During this time all mortgages will be refinanced at the FED rate of 0.5% to be fixed over the next 30 years.

Nice action on the Dow.
Isn't that something. How many funny boxes were programmed to jam the break of 12515 on the upside and sell around 12700?

What an idiot!

It's not the Fed's job to manage the prices of homes. Home prices need to get back down to a level that is justified based on production and income, not availability of cheap credit.

He might as well said F#@$ You all you non-homeowners. Our Ponzi scheme of finance is far more important than you ever owning a home. Too bad, you lose!

It's all about the financial industry!


High gas prices are tolerable.

High food prices are tolerable.

Low wages are tolerable.

But the stock market going down .... that is not tolerable.

Anything that affects the average Joe in a bad way is tolerable, but God help us if those in the financial industry are affected.

Wake up J6P!

there has not been an ounce of fear in the OZ stockmarket for years.(or economy for that matter)

It was a 'one way' trip to the moon for most punters.

That thinking needs to be completely dispelled.

The market is like riding a tiger,not like ridng a donkey.



Tricom crisis hits

AN unprecedented regulatory crackdown on stockbroker Tricom - one of the nation's biggest margin lenders - has stripped investor confidence in the share market and sent stocks into another steep descent.

Local investors again ignored leads from bigger international markets, latching on to the problems afflicting Tricom as a sign of further turmoil as more shareholders who had borrowed money to buy stocks were forced to sell to meet margin calls.

The ANZ Bank has given Tricom only days to reduce the broker's margin loan book by hundreds of millions of dollars to satisfy loan covenants.

Tricom has been in crisis since last week's 5 per cent stock market rout, which triggered margin calls among its 29,000 clients. Tricom's main creditors - ANZ Bank, Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse - then effectively froze Tricom's accounts as it was forced to sell shares it financed on behalf of clients, including a large line of Allco Finance Group shares, ultimately owned by Allco senior executives. It is also reported to have been the seller of shares in the troubled Gold Coast financier MFS - chaired by former Opposition leader Andrew Peacock - held by staff and executives.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...767-601,00.html

Trendline drawn with highs of oct31 and nov30 was at 205.77 today on log chart. The EMA 200 daily was at 206.81 today. GS did mark a high at 205.87 today. Typical "we have 2 huge res levels, so we short it" setup.

Futures continue to hammer lower.

AMZN getting beaten like a stubborn mule, down $5.71.

This is more than the conventional wisdom, it's the bible. I listened to NPR for awhile this afternoon and some Yale econ Prof and some business writer talked and talked and talked about rate but never mentioned prices in relation to income.

Those house prices are just too &^$** high!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ip8gspFaH8

Great.

The work cafeteria raised prices again on food. Third time in six months. Prices for lunch up 20%.

Dow futures at 12292

If this sticks, we'll get a 150 point gap down on the Dow tomorrow.

Here's a real Bloomberg story. Apparently the mortgage crooks have a new way to hide losses:

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Just when it seemed as if the mortgage mess had hit a new low, now comes this: The Securities and Exchange Commission's staff has granted the subprime-lending industry a huge exemption from the normal rules for off-balance- sheet accounting.

In effect, the move will let home lenders keep their balance sheets looking much smaller and less leveraged, even while the off-the-books loans they made get a makeover.

For months, banking regulators and politicians have been pressing lenders to freeze the interest rates on many adjustable-rate subprime mortgages that are scheduled to reset soon at higher interest rates. The idea is to minimize defaults and foreclosures.

While that's a noble objective, all good deeds must be accounted for, and that's been a sticking point for many banks. Through September, just 3.5 percent of subprime mortgages that reset in the first eight months of 2007 had been modified, according to Moody's Investors Service. Even lenders inclined to help don't want to hurt their financial results. And now they might not have to, thanks to a Jan. 8 letter from the SEC's chief accountant, Conrad Hewitt.

more crap to perpetuate the disease

With inflation at 6 to 10%, and tbill rates approaching 3%, savers are now losing 3 to 7% a year holding cash.

Thanks Uncle Ben. Why don't you come to my apartment sometime? I have some cool stuff I'd like to "show" you.

living in OZ is like living in the Twilight Zone.

The world is going to hell in a handbasket,our stockmarket has finally cracked and yet house prices are not only levitating at these crazy high prices, in many places they are stilling moving higher.

The prices are so ridiculously out of kilter with wages that when it finally busts,we will have a depression.

Plenty of cracks starting to appear.

Current Affair type programs featuring people being turfed out of their homes.

Enormous amounts of wealth has vanished with this huge stockmarket selloff.

The next few months will be very interesting.

War? Empire? Social ills? Famine? Financial meltdowns?

Nothing an ocean of electronic zeroes can't solve.

When you take systemic risk off the table, you have a huge win.

That's what the Fed has done with these two cuts -- they have taken the systemic risk off the table.

-cramer 1/30/2008

Just think how much negative numbers would be coming out if they didn't unleash the electronic zeroes....

Hacking and slashing Fitch keeps up the pace:

"Financial Guaranty Insurance Co., the world's fourth-largest bond insurer, lost its AAA credit rating at Fitch Ratings after missing a deadline to raise capital."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...iinw&refer=home

SandPee is making a good start with half a trillion of downgrades:

"Standard & Poor's said it cut or may reduce ratings of $534 billion of subprime-mortgage securities and collateralized debt obligations as default rates rise."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...cnz0&refer=home

is it a Beretta 92 or a Walther P 38?

a bubble in CPI, I was just reading something like that, if anyone is interested...

Stagflation. Plain and simple.
Asset prices simply cannot be justified relative to consumer prices.

FakeBen January 15, 2008

http://www.internetional.se/stagflationexplained.htm


I guess stagflation could happen especially as the fall in the dollar will fuel import prices (US import prices are up 10% yoy offical figure)

Chart - U.S. Dollar : Chinese Yuan

They may keep the banks alive a little longer, but the holders of the securities in these SPVs are still facing mortal losses.

Sen. Charles "Chuck" Schumer (DumbaSS - NY) proposes homebuying grants

Anyone who does not currently own a home would be given a one-time tax-free grant (not a loan) of up to $600,000 depending on median home prices in the region. The money must be used for purchase of and subsequent improvements to a home.

The program is estimated to cost $4 Trillion over the next 4 years, about the same cost as the war on terror.

Those are both nice, but my favorite is my friend Colt 1911.

good thing they never made a 1929 model, it would just crash all the time.

I'm not thinking hyperinflation, but here's some info on Wiemar Germany if anyone is interested...

Hyperinflation: Wiemar, Germany January 1919 to November 1923
(I guess this chart is correct although I haven't checked it yet)

http://uk.geocities.com/briarberrys/dax.gif

background info

I thought it was interesting that once started, currency reform seems to be the only way to end it ?

GTFO

There is outright desperation from the Fed and politcians to save the banking and housing ponzi schemes. Things must really be bad, perhaps much worse than we think.

the problem is that soon the Fed will be powerless to stop the slide. What then?

Speaking of weapons, looks like chinese pai gowers have played russian roulette for too long on this parabolic turd





Pull it one more time!

Emini S&P 1335.5 -15.00 -1.02
Emini Nasdaq 1786.25 -25.25 -1.20
Emini Dow 12297 -97 -0.72

etrade still bouncing