http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Quite a fall on open but looking at the bounce now. All Ords -1.8% with Healthcare down the most, -3.6% followed by Energy, Financials and Consumer Staples, all -2.3%.

The big miners holding up well: BHP +0.1% and RIO +1.5%. Golds looking skittish, Newcrest -0.8%, Newmont +0.7% and Lihir -1.6%.

Oils: Woodside -1.6%, Santos -2.1% and Caltex -2%.

A volatile day. All Ords finished +0.6% and with indicators short-term Dover Sole we may see more upside tomorrow. Miners showed considerable strength, +2.3% with the next highest sectors being Property Trusts and Energy, both +0.9%. Healthcare dived the most, -2.1%.

Big gains on the Big 2: BHP +2.6% and RIO +7.6%. Golds remained waffly, Newcrest -0.2%, Newmont +1.3% and Lihir -0.8%. Juniors flat to down.

Oils perked up a tad: Woodside +1.3%, Santos +1.8% and Caltex -1.9%.

Asia also doing the rollercoaster: Sth Korea +2.4%, Nikkers +1.4%, Honkers -0.7% and India -1.3%.


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

FGIC Loses AAA Rating
MBIA Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter Net loss for the full year 2007 was $1.9 billion

Knew this was coming today two weeks ago. Didn't realize it would come minutes after midnight. Probably should've shorted the close.

I'm starting to wonder if the sovereigns start bailing out their own markets and forget about the US consumer/home owner. China's got bigger problems right now.

Thursday I expect the typical morning-after rate-cut Benstantiation rally ("gov't is good")... this will align with the end-of-month greenprint

Friday is when we'll see if it can hold up

LOL...more crack, NOW:

Investors Want More Interest Rate Cuts

Thursday January 31, 5:03 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, criticized last year for being too tentative in cutting interest rates, has shown he can act boldly. But the Fed's two aggressive rate cuts in the past eight days have left investors demanding still more.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/fed_interest_rates.html

The last paragraph is priceless:

The Bright Side of the Panic of ‘08
Written by Christopher Ketcham
Thursday, 31 January 2008

Futurist and trends forecaster Gerald Celente, director of the Trends Research Institute in Rhinebeck, NY, predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, the Asian economic implosion of ‘97, the decline of the dollar beginning in 2005, the meteoric rise in gold prices in an age of currency volatility, and the turn of events that may be the blessing of our era, the subprime mortgage crisis.

Because of this habit of prescience, Celente has appeared regularly on CNN and Fox and MSNBC, his “Trends Reports” widely quoted in newsprint, on Oprah Winfrey, on Good Morning America.

Meanwhile, the dollar will bottom out at 10 cents to the euro sometime in the next several years, perhaps by 2010. Newspapers report that even Third World vendors are beginning to refuse payment in greenbacks, while foreign governments and investors, mostly the Chinese, deploy the muscle of their currencies to buy US property and businesses.

Note that this is no fringer veering into conspiracist phantasm: Celente consults for hundreds of large and small corporations, addresses government bodies worldwide.

... he is no longer invited onto the TV and cable networks – “the first year in decades,” he says, “that they did not have me on and that USA Today did not cover the Trends Report.” When Celente sent out an e-mail alert to his mailing list in mid-January, Jack Marks, the publisher and CEO of The Wall Street Reporter, one of the oldest investment organs in New York, wrote him back to say “You are a **cking retard mother**cker” and “Remove me from this list, you **cking moron.”

http://pacificfreepress.com/content/view/2236/81/

What eloquence! If he spelled everything correctly he's gotta be a Harvard man. If not, probably Yale.

I know it is just a term of art...but it made me laugh when i read "investment organ". Ha ha, the guy certainly sounds like a "tool".

The other guy that predicted all those events is in Jail since 2000 till at least 2011 initially on contempt charges and now serving an additional 5 year sentence.

What we are learning about the sneakiness of credit-ratings agencies and bond-insurers these days could fill Shea’s Stadium. Rule No. 1: always report bad news in the middle of the night (as if no one’s looking). Clearly taking this to heart, MBIA waited until just past 12 a.m. EST to drop the bombshell that it had weathered a second consecutive quarterly loss, with write-downs in its credit-derivatives portfolio swelling to $3.5 billion. In what we are sure was a coincidence, S&P also held off until the dead of night to say it downgraded or put on negative watch around $534 billion of mortgage-backed debt, which means banks will have to double their predicted losses to $265 billion from $130 billion. (Since, so far, they’ve only reported a fraction of that, it looks like just about everyone is being naughty-naughty.)

http://www.traderdaily.com/news/item/14622.html

Shocking...not:

The average rate on fixed-rate 30-year mortgages rebounded to 5.88% this week from 5.57% last week, reported Bankrate Inc., which operates personal-finance Web site Bankrate.com, on Thursday. The average 15-year fixed mortgage also rose to 5.38% from 5.11%. The average rate on 30-year jumbo loans -- above $417,000 -- jumped to 7.03%. "Despite another interest rate cut this week, mortgage rates moved higher, dispelling a common misconception that mortgage rates take their cues from the Fed," Bankrate noted in a statement. "Instead it is the outlook for the economy and inflation that are the real drivers of fixed mortgage rates."


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bank...D&dist=hplatest

Amazing to think that I might escape having once been stupid enough to buy DROO(p)Y with my capital intact!

DJ Fed Accepts $5 Bln In 14-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $5 Bln
Total submitted: $43.45 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $11.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 2.98%
Low-rate submitted: 2.75%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $5 Bln
Total submitted: $12.95 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.1%
Weighted Average: 2.17%
High-rate submitted: 2.25%
Low-rate submitted: 1.45%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $18.9 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.08%
Low-rate submitted: 2.93%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

*DJ Labor:MLK Holiday May Have Been A Factor In Claims Spike

move along

That's ridiculous too. Mortgage rates have zero to do with the outlook for the economy and inflation. They are driven purely by credit fears which drive investors from non governmental debt instruments to Treasuries, by the level of FCB buying of Treasuries and GSEs, and by Treasury supply.

None of these assholes have any clue whatsoever what they are talking about. It's a joke.

Everything just took a dump. Including Treasury yields. I guess I'm an idiot too.

Like I said yesterday, to open skepticism, Loonie was looking ready for a turn.

KWave spaghetti rings the cash register!

Don't mess with the spaghetti when multiple timeframes align....

we do have a possible bounce point right here...if this don't hold, then 12,125-12150 area looms as the next attractor

I want to thank everyone for their advice on my DXD trade. I did hold it. Not because I'm such a canny trader, but because I tend to be an inert lump hoping for a crash whenever I take a short position.

The dia has a 3 day cycle projection of 121.50 and the DXD 59.25, so I'm inclined to hold and see if they can approach that, but if there are signs of reversal before, I might bug out.

spy 3 day cycle projection 131.75. qqqq 43.30

Because the projections are derived from a news noise spike, I am skeptical that they will be reached. On the other hand, I see only very minor support levels below here to about 121 on DIA which is equivalent to resistance around 59.80 on dxd.

13 week bill rates now under 2%.

We are going the Japan route. Permanent zero interest rate policy.

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If crude don't hold 91, could be the start of a big rollover

Looks like possible Gap'N'Go for QID here today...was huge battle at 50 area, now trading 51.50....

Back below 50 would signal trouble fur da bears

This could be the day where CME totally loses it.....600 is the key level...freefall zone below that

.75 cut now being priced in for March

What moving average is that purple line Kwave?.

this area holding thus far...may be bounce time

900...it is simply amazing how many times price kisses the 900 and reverses, on any timeframe..and the longer the run to the 900, the more likely the turn.

Great job!

If Euro don't hold right here, could be on the verge of a large slide. Multiple timeframes lining up for sell signal here....

Dow 5 hr cycle projection 12050 (not a typo)

spx 5 hr cycle projection 1306.

SRS launches at the line one more time

first support right here at 12250, also initial 3 day cycle projection .

spx initial 3 day cycle projection also right here at 1335.

YM trying to turn the corner

snapback rally starting. They have to hold here, otherwise those 5 hr cycle projections won't look so crazy.

I'm chasing this. Not a good entry, so only a half position. The stars are aligned with the magnetic interference waves in my head. Gotta trust the force.

CME pulling away from the line... 587

Agreed. I use the 200 week a lot, which is basically the same thing.

I expect the SPX to waffle around this level for a while (that's a lot of ST volatility) , but still think the odds favor an IT bounce at this point.

But I'm happy I bailed my longs yesterday to protect capital when things turned south.

No congrats yet. It ain't over till it's over. The term "round trip" was invented for me.

IF GS can crack 195, should be game over...that last pivot low should be for all da marbles

EMA or just MA?

simple

I am leaning toward holding through the first bounce. Keying on a 75000 shares per bar chart of the DXD. Looks like an orderly pullback after a big base breakout. On the other hand, a couple of projections point to 58.50-.75 and there's a resistance line that held earlier at 58.25, now 58.25.


Hmmmmmm......

Don't let it get away from you....
In these market, you better have your stops.

qqqq just made a move toward its 3 day cycle MA at 44.06 but dropped back. It has a higher low this AM vs overnight low.