End of month, or end of bear market?

Interesting action in the ruboff, to say the least.

WTF happened? It tanked to 153 at the bell and they jammed it another 50?...funny, not.

Google having some incontinence issues, missed by a penny.

Well, maybe those lil 390 puts'll work out after all

GOOG down 53 bucks in the afterlife.

S&P: MBIA, XL credit watch negative

Put that your decoder ring. They should have been downgraded two quarters ago. Someone is pressing influence to avoid a downgrade. Instead they are "being watched" Hell MBIA has lost $5b in the last two qtrs alone. What's to watch?

Another wild day...
Got stopped out twice today for small losses.

Don't know if anyone noticed, but MBIA is setting aside 650mm in reserves to cover losses. So, they should be good to go now. Probably why the big rally, and all.

These Credit Agency are destroying their own credibility. What good or they if they can't even grade credit instruments correctly. The system is obviously a complete fraud.

well, that's a nice lil' start

like I said laSSt night, GOOG is Dead Money fer next 3 years at least

see in the mornin' fer the NASDAQ gapdown, aSS expectorated and pre-pontificated right here on the Stool, the best guld durn site on God's Green Earth fer folks like us

Donged TWM @ 78.88 -- my inept calculation of a 50% retracement of OCT/JAN boner. I put this trade in yesterday morning GTC and missed by 33 cents. Hard to believe it filled today after trading > 87.

Blind pig finds an acorn -- hopefully it doesn't turn out to be a grenade.

The zombies are NOT saying much about GOOG after that initial report. In fact, they haven't mentioned it since. IF GOOG had beat handily, that is ALL they would be talking about..this was the BIG report of the week for the 'dung. Kinda funny.

With the Gurgler action, this divergent setup may pay handsomely manana....

Too bad this wasn't a down day...it'd be down $80 if so. Hell, after what they did to AMZN between yesterday AH and today +3.50, it'll probably open green.

Hey chaps, good to see so many familar names still kickin around during these interesting times in the market.

Anyone recall my QDPivot calls? Had one for the spoos in the last hour of trading, so went short for the hell of it for a quick sharp trade!!

I still think we are due a "bear market" rally before we take out the Jan lows....

Would you be surprise if it closes up tomorrow?

Hey Mike, long time no see...

How high do ya think we go?

Heck no. Jobs are going to be bonered, big time.
Going into the weekend, big Thursday set up. This
is ripe for the bulls to gore the bears.

well, I'll figger the mathematicals fer 'em so they don't hurt their purty fluffy heads

$3.79 X 4 = $15.16 per year aSSuming they can maintain that goin' forward inta the Depression

grantin' a generous P/E of 20 fer a non-divvy narrow sector hype stock with high P/B, too much employee overhead, and competing with Microsoft who will crush them eventually....

$303 a share

best case

Did we ever get in a bear market?

More amazing stuff. The well never runs dry

Advance Q4 MEW Estimate

Based on the Q4 GDP data from the BEA, my advance estimate for Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) is approximately $145 Billion for Q4 (just under $600 billion on a SAAR) or 5.6% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI). This would be slightly higher than the Q3 estimates, from the Fed's Dr. Kennedy, of $133.0 Billion, or 5.2% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI).

The actual Q3 data for MEW will be released after the Flow of Funds report is available from the Fed (scheduled for March 6, 2008 for Q4).


http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

YM 250 tick still showing possibility of one more move up as long as 12,600 holds..that GOOG shakeout may have been it fur now, as it has been completely reversed and seems to be holding....

I just saw a Crapvision head-to-head with upChuck Gagarino and some old fart. They finally figured out that the problem all stems from the SEC not stepping in early enough to make all the bond/RE crooks behave.

So it's the SEC's fault.

And what is the SEC a part of ????


So now who's holding the bag?



Got gold?

Fed report?

interesting article in OZ.

Policy mistakes, unnecessary rate rises, with some bad luck, are usually the prerequisites for an Australian recession. An end to the resources boom would be bad luck, and we are likely next week to get a policy mistake of yet another rise in the official cash rate. A US recession dragging down China and others could turn the resources boom into a bust. Fortunately, the US yield curve suggests that the aggressive rate cuts by the Fed will avoid a deep US recession.



http://business.theage.com.au/bad-news-flo...80131-1pdi.html

http://www.econoclast.com.au/

Not enough when it is going up.

Traders Gag on Google

love that headline!


CNN/Money's website has been a googorgy promotion fest the last few weeks, constantly touting how great it is to work there, how to get a job there, etc.

I just don't get what is so important about this company.

in comparison, at least microsoft charges for all its products, provides outstanding support to enterprise buyers (which they sell, not give away), etc. Granted, there are problems with some of their products and some of their business practices leave a little to be desired, but at least their company isn' based on an endless hype machine.

Hey K wave!!!

I've never been much good at price level prediction! However i do believe market patterns repeat, and from my "price analysis" the jan '08 markets have played out a rerun of march '01 in which it bottomed on the 21st and then retraced approx 50% from its lows to the high before tanking yet again. That would put the topside target for the sPOOs @ 1400, with the next major "high" due approx 22nd March.

TBH i'm waiting for the stops above 1.50 to be taken out for EUR/USD before the next leg down...

I've not done any serious daily QDPivot sPOOs analyisis yet, so please take what i post with a pinch of salt!

Easy Geezer!!

Need help on this one. I've been holding it for the dividend for a while now. It is currently at a three year high for the second time.

Keep it, or sell it?

Welcome back Astral Mike!

looks like big breakout, retest breakout area, and launch to me

Almost every technician or trader thinks we get to 1,400 on the spoos before the next meltdown. That's just too easy. My guess is we either fall way short of that or way over it.

Notice how every bounce have exceeded the 61.8 fibo number. I think tad over 1,480 is where this might end.

The unemployment numbers were up big....AND now you think the jobs numbers will be up big?

Jobs/skills mismatch or more people across the borders or something else?

astral mike,

what you said about EUR/USD is my opinion too. Simply a gut feeling, but i think it will go a bit above 1.50, stop hunting, then down. Playing tripple top. Also a psycho thing: First test of a big psycho number, like 1.50 is, often fails. Given how much extended EUR/USD is, im quite sure first test will fail.

thx mdporter!

that is one lovely looking stock you have. its almost def. going to break out to new highs. its clearly outperforming the market. if you wanted to play it safe, i would sell 1/3rd of the position in the stock on the breakout... but TBH this looks like a long term keeper...

mdporter,

I advertise my business on Google.

It is now the number one generator of business for me.

I survey clients on our booking forms to see where they found us.

6 out of 10 jobs come from Google.

Once upon a time 6 out of 10 jobs came from the Yellowpages.

Google will render the Yellowpages obsolete imho.

Infact I just had my web guys drop Google way down the bottom of the list to see if it made any difference but it doesn't.

Google works very well and its not cheap.

Google 'removalists Brisbane' and see how many companies come up.

My company is 'moversonline.com.au'

It may also be because we run an online moving business that makes Google work so well.

It is quite likely that we get an retest from below of the broken uptrendline in S&P. That is the target of the current upmove. So either we go down RIGHT NOW, that means todays high will be THE high, or we go to the 1425-1460 region.

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Hey foxy!!

It's always interesting to see how the market reacts at big/important price levels. what i've noticed is that despite the fed cutting rates by 1.25% in a blink of an eye EUR/USD has failed (so far) to take out the highs.

very correct! If price doesnt go up anymore.....well it has 2 choices: Either stay where it is or gow down. Im not expecting a monster style downmove, but a move to 1.43 should be possible.

I think you are right, the sPOOs has bounced to just 1% below the 1400 level already, and this must be a concern for the US Bears in the next several weeks.

However the forex market is playing an important influence in the global equity markets with EUR/JPY (as a carry trade) being highly correlated. With that in mind the German DAX as a proxy for the EU markets has yet to take out the 38.2% fibo retracement due to the "high" value of the Euro.

Sorry for the delay! Coming right up.

For tomorrow: Isn't January one of the two(?) months where the
birth/death model in the BLS payroll employment report SUBTRACTS
(assumed) jobs?

It appears that goog's earnings likely proves the market is going up on short covering and some extra stimuli by the pigmen, but at least we know it's not going up on earnings.

In that case the 50 day moving average should keep price at bay and it may be a long time before we see a close over the 200 dma.

The IBD'ers and Canslim folks call this a follow through day.

Retail, Banksters, and Broker/Dealers are above their 50 dma

http://www.canslim.net/mc/MCCurrent.asp

Speaking of Fibos, if you look at the great bear markets of the past, I believe that the 50% level is the most common retracement, if memory serves.

I know less than nothing :-) Just seems like the right set up. Did i mention i know nothing? I hope it gets killed on the number, but the ramp job today smelled like...preemptive knowledge.

OK, the Fed report is up.

In case you missed it, the new podcast on http://radiofreewallstreet.fm also discusses some of the issues I raised in today's Fed report.

when GOOG -100 starts rollin' across the bottom of J12P's no-payments-til-2010 plasma screen tomorrow, then we'll finally start to see some mutual fund reamdemptions

"We are alive and well, and Bankruptcy is not on our plans.
2007 will be remembered as the worst housing year for a very long time, the worst is behind us"




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