Stopping to catch a snack while trudging up a majestic mountain won't get you there any quicker, even though you need to do it to carb up.

SLV is a picture I like. It even appears to be headed to the 180 area.

Above is my Dec 18th post that discusses the gold metal outperforming the gold stocks. Click to view examples of several charts showing what happened as the gold metal outperformed the gold stocks. The result: the gold stocks played Catch-Up in a BIG way.

And a follow up Gold / HUI Chart of Dec 18th to demonstrate the most current result. This time was Not different.

I rest my case.

Nice posts. Silver is acting very well.
The bullish structure of the pm miner sector remains one of the strongest in the equity market, imo.

i am in hawaii,

Hi dharma - if you're here on Oahu and would like to meet up, I'm buyin'.

Bullish indeed. P&F charts provide excellent perspective.

Fears China may snap up last remaining large Latin American mines

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -

Chinese miners eager to feed a roaring economy with raw materials are buying some of the last remaining big mines in Latin America, where risks are lower than China's other commodities sources like Africa. . . .

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/minewe...45655&sn=Detail

Russian Billionaires Seize A Golden Opportunity

MOSCOW — The country’s metals billionaires are moving into gold, attracted by record prices and the prospect of carving a share of production that is forecast to rise 40 percent by 2015.

Six of the 10 richest Russians ranked by Forbes own gold assets in a country with reserves second only to South Africa’s. The wealthiest, Chelsea football club owner Roman Abramovich, is among the latest to join the gold rush. . . .

http://www.sptimes.ru/story/24884

gold majestic- i am in kauai, in princeville! it would be great to meet up.
dharma

Sorry, but I agree with Lord Jim. I monitor a number of investor, PM and financial boards and lists. All I have been reading from the August move up on 'til today, is:

"When should I sell?"
"When can I go short?"
"We are entering wave 2 or Wave 4."

Lord Jim is correct, there are many so called gold bugs who've been nickel and diming their moves, over the past several months. I hope they are firmly on the sidelines when this thing explodes.


joe b- its what makes a market. i can tell you when this goes vertical, there will bona fide heros who will give you all the reasons gold went to far too fast. etc. its why i do my own work! its my $$$ , studying markets, commodities blow off. much the same as the nasdaq did in 99-00. its breathtaking. this will end that way, all the rest of the tops are the normal ebb and flow.

i agree the gold stocks are starting from much higher levels then the broads or the oil indexes. the crb is approaching its highs, its very very close to taking them out
dharma

GG sold their SLW holding for $14.50 per share. Whadda great management team.

Those 100 ounce silver bars I was using as door stops are now in a fire proof safe next to the Krugs.

Oh no, is today the Jason hommel affect? The Wall Street Journal Gata ad. April gold up 10.5 to 943

"On Thursday, GATA will run a full page ad in the Wall Street Journal at a cost of $264,400. This ad will have to be "answered" by the gold establishment Wall Street banks"
http://silverstockreport.com/2008/gata.html

The Wall Street Journal ad by GATA
http://www.gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

SMC: showing incredible resiliency during these PM smackdowns. once we get the thumbs up (Monday?, this afternoon?) and $HUI bungees higher, how will SMC trade? i initially thought $2 would be tough to get through, but i'm eyeing $2.20-.30 short-term, $2.80 thereafter (gap-fill, then big smackdown). you know what happens after long steady 45 degree climbs? parabolas come to mind.

AS

IN that case, I will get the second round...

this down seems to want a bit more. somewhere from 440 to 404 are my target ranges assuming this is a c of 2 down retracing the move up from the fall.

Looks like miners and spot looking for common ground.

the thing that is worrisome to me right here right now, is the divergence(rsi) in spot gold. xau/hui have none. we could have a correction to adjust for the divergences in gold. silver is sporting one too. now, i have time left for the up phase, but the divergences are disconcerting so i am reporting what i see. dont shoot the messenger. if we do top here, it would be 5of 3 and wave 4 which could go down to the mid 700s. no, i am in no way shape or form a bear. it doesnt matter to me what i thought, i try and let the market talk to me. and its saying the divergence in gold/silver is saying momo to the upside may be spent. of course if these highs are taken out. then this report is for naught
dharma

Hi hedonic - somehow I missed your PM. It's not there.
But, yes, it's always nice to put a face to a name!
Now if we can just get dharma to come to the big city from his paradise spot.

somehow, when i am here, i just go for long walks on the beach and keep to myself. but next time! i would love to meet you 3!
dharma

Well, I’ve arrived. It was inevitable at some point, ..
.. Question now, I suppose, is whether my arrival signals a peak in precious metals prices or simply a way station on the path to greater glory. I’m banking on the latter, .. .

The truth is that I’ve been lurking on this board since Thor was a fish. I’ve benefited a great deal from the wisdom of those on this site and thought it was time that I acknowledged your collective contribution to my Schwab and 401K account balances, .. . A little about me first, though, in way of introduction. I started trading stocks just before the dot.com bust, .. My timing could not have been worse, and looking back I’m still astounded by my trading naiveté. I work at a large semiconductor firm, so naturally gravitated toward the technology sector, .. Thought that late 90’s growth would continue unabated, .. Obviously a big mistake. Goes without saying that it didn’t pay to be “long” technology stocks early this decade. Good news is that my cumulative losses should offset capital gains well into the future so very few tax worries, .. . Dabbled in Gann theory, waves, cycles, etc., but ultimately found price, volume and divergence to be the only factors that drove any degree of trading success. I finally stumbled upon precious metals in ’03, found the bullish argument compelling, purchased core positions in physical gold/silver and mining stocks and haven’t looked back. I’ve found that buying dips is invariably more profitable than chasing breakouts, at least in this sector, so I add when panic dictates and sit tight otherwise. Borrowing from PS, I’ve “lashed myself to the mast” awaiting the eventual parabolic blow-off top.

Without sucking-up too much, I do want to offer a few thank you's. First to GM, TCG, and dharma, without whom I would have undoubtedly lost my nerve at various points and sold long ago. GM, I’m in awe of your technical skills, and your conviction is contagious. Dharma, never thought it possible, but you almost have me believing that there’s something to this astrology nonsense, .. . BV, you’re one of the best Ellioticians I’ve come across on any board, but I’ve never had much success trading with them. I’ve always found wave counts better confirmers of the past than predictors of the future. TFH offers a nice counterbalance to the rampant bullishness on this site, and Charmin, without you, I suspect there would be no board for me to visit. Shouts out as well to Ageka, Meta, PS, Agent Smith and apologies to those I’ve missed.

All told, the best gold board I’ve found anywhere. Course I haven’t looked too hard, .. .

JoeSixPack
No clue where we're headed next, but I'm in for the long haul.

dharma while painful for those holding onto long positions for the long term I think your scenario is probably the healthiest thing for the current pm market.

Welcome Joe6Pack. FWIW no one here is any more bullish longer term Gold than I am. Just trying to maximize ounces by getting out from time to time. I agree that this is by far the best Gold board anywhere. The time to hold tangibles is here. Like most will tell you most of the surprises in this sector will be to the upside. Where we might disagree some is whether it is wise to hold the majority of assets in physical form or in paper Gold and Silver. Good luck going forward.

Another little bit of analysis on gold prices versus gold stocks at Prudent Trader. http://www.prudenttrader.com/ptltr020208.html

Noteworthy volume for SLV may indicate a change and I have noticed since SLV came on board back in May 2006 that every three months there is the potential to see it appear.

August 16
November 8
February 1

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1201970886.png

Welcome JoeSixPack

I did my weekend work and it looks like the buy and keep them guys like me are going to weep several weeks sometime in the future
I am now 92.5% long and looking to reduce by a little bit more my exposure
Sofar I have lost nothing on the part I sold and that in itself is an indicator

I see a rotation in stocks which is normal but fascinating like the money that flowed into Drooy

welcome joe 6, actually, when you started was a very instructive time. having experienced a major top, is an invaluable experience. all tops in commodities end in parabolic blowoffs. this gold top will be no different. and when we are in the parabolic, divergences wont matter. nor, will when you bought matter, the key will be to be on board. if, and its a big if, we start correcting here, the next wave up will be wave 5. (its one of the main problems w/elliott, put 10 elliotticians on a market get 10 different counts.) any way, wave 5 is the blowoff in commodities. the crb came right up to the highs and backed off friday!!
no matter what happens here, this bull still has alot more expression to go.
and unless things are different this time(and i dont think they will be), the miners are due to become the next internet stocks of this decade.
dharma

Nice to see you Joe!

Speaking of Internut stocks, if only one of my miner positions goes the way of JDSU, well let's just say Skidmark would reevaluate his day job.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...45285&sn=Detail
"For weeks, homes and businesses have been dark for hours a day while failed traffic lights have caused accidents, leaving many in Africa's biggest economy angry at their government.
"If some of the mines get flooded, you can't save them," said Jacobsz at Gold Fields"

These high-cost South African deep mines supposed to profit by a rapidly increasing margin from higher gold prices, instead seem stalked by Peak Everything, and might end up unexploitable.

Bearvest, it's your turn

Do we have a silver peak here?

Several years ago I sold Stilfontein
Turned out the value dead was more then the value alive because of the landholdings
If I had not sold I would have gotten more from the closure

Barrons Bullish on GOLD:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/62778-gold...?source=d_email
contrarians will shout oh no, but i think the public is waking up. the powers that be may just want to smack new devotees on the head here

A momentum swing signal fired on friday Feb. 1 for GLD to short at $89.35. I'll keep an eye on that one.

The long signal for GLD was entered on Dec. 27 at $81.56 and exited on Jan. 31 at $91.4

As everyone looks to preserve their cash and won't even worry about the return on investment in coming months, volatility will be rampant as they jump in and out of different vehicles looking for safe haven. I'm not sure where the powers to be want to herd the cattle, I'm not even sure the powers to be know the trail. Strap yourselves in.

Somewhere the next 60 days I expect a smackdown of 20% on gold and/or the miners
I plan to sit it out with close to 90% invested cause it might be fast and brutal in two directions

KBX +8%, CDY green, GRS green, SMC hanging in there. Can't wait for this dip to be done...going to be monster moves in some stocks. I was sooooooooo close to breaking my own rule of dipping into margin this morning..why? GRS @ 6.66..........bwahaha. Have you guys finished rotating?

Looks like NY bullion buyers stepping up into the close.

I agree. GG would be a much better company ex Telfer. What an idiot.

I am in day 89 now and swinging both ways
Ready to buy and ready to sell or in reverse order

In the meantime I am dancing on top of the world
MS63 or 64

It is unlikely that this C wave will take out 422, where there is significant support...

GLD. 88.30 is holding well. If not, look for 84.97.

I don't really focus on fundamentals or the economy (except mine).....just inflation

Bush Budget Would Bring Record Deficits

By ANDREW TAYLOR – 1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The record $3.1 trillion budget proposed by President Bush on Monday would produce eyepopping federal deficits, despite his attempts to impose politically wrenching curbs on Medicare and eliminate scores of popular domestic programs.

The Pentagon would receive a $36 billion, 8 percent boost for the 2009 budget year beginning Oct. 1, even as programs aimed at the poor would be cut back or eliminated. Half of domestic Cabinet departments would see their budgets cut outright.

...

It will be interesting to see if spot continues correcting and the miners begin recovering as I prefer the miners to play catchup to spot and not the other way around.

Looks like NY spot buyers saving the day again.

i dont think that stagflation is going to be the main issue, this time around. the solvency of the banking industry is going to be the main concern. we are in some deep do do. the deficits, as tax receipts fall will reach the stratosphere.
dharma
this leg down is finishing right here

Going with the theme that PM stocks are today's version of late '90s Internut stocks, another look at JDSU.

From the end of January 1998 to the end of June 1998, JDSU basically doubled. Then from the end of June 1998 to the beginning of October 1998, JDSU retraced the entire move (and even a little more so piggy could grab the sell stops).

What came next was breathtaking, a roughly 40x increase from the October 1998 bottom at 31.25 to the March 2000 top above 1227, appearing on the monthly chart as an uninterrupted parabola.

But who would have held long over that period, suffering the entire retrace of the January 1998 to June 1998 gains? Maybe a fraction of 1% of shareholders and disproportionately insiders?

The moral . . . entry into Valhalla is reserved for the privileged few who cannot be shaken. And I suspect many of the few will feel much pain before their reward, if they must watch every tick.

More and more I like the Rip Van Winkle approach. Either get yourself another hobby or take a three-year nap and forget about it.

ooops...guess I spoke too soon. heh heh.

Massive dollar rally here.

fwiw, hourly divergences on the xau/hui. this leg down is about over. or it is over. broads are Dover Sole on hourlies, but no divergences. every where i read, that folks are expecting a 15-20%correction in gold. if an event unfolds, it is entirely possible. if you are on margin, get off . this correction, still has more to go. and will cause you great pain, this rally will be your opportunity.
dharma
just as a point of interest, an astrologer that i follow says todays planetary setup is the same as novembers. so the winners today will be the ones that represent their party.

Got your buying lists going?

Long GDX at 46.60 (and short the major indices as of yesterday).

Praying my new money is in the account tomorrow...could be another day/2 tho. The already cheap are getting downright ridiculous.

edit: okay, was happy to see SMC below where I sold some trading shares at 1.73, was feeling somewhat vindicated for selling too early and looking forward to buying them back...then she bungees at the end of the day to 1.80 to close up .03...wtf. despite some of the blowups, my account is slightly green on the day, nice.

Guys (I assume, .. ),
Appreciate the warm welcome, thanks, ..

Anyone care to critique my current allocation?
GLD ~30%, SLV ~30%, GDX ~30%, OZN 4%, CDY ~3%, MPET ~3% (don't ask, .. ), no margin.
.. 401K (self managed portion) ~90% GAMCO (GOLDX)

Rotation from physical ETFs to miners? GDX to juniors?

Expect a fresh cash infusion tomorrow.
.. Watching hourly divergences. Looking to deploy on select juniors during this downdraft.

Cheers,
Joe6

I'd allocate some to physical if you haven't. I've gone to roughly 30% physical / 70% shares. The physical has done quite a bit better than the shares lately. Although I expect their relative performance to shift as we progress, it's nice to have something that is real and not paper and can't disappear with a keystroke. And you just never know when you may need to slip over some cold northern border in the middle of the night with shiny yellow things sewn into your coat lining. The down side is the 28% tax on gains, but you already have that with GLD and SLV. I'd hold some more in juniors, too. But that's just me and I don't plan to need to be making withdrawals for decades.

HUI:

Almost low enough now to put a toe into the water.

Good lateral and trendline support at 412.

Waiting for stochastics to pierce 20.