aussiebear
Jan 31 2008, 11:42 PM
aussiebear
Jan 31 2008, 11:44 PM
aussiebear
Jan 31 2008, 11:54 PM

All Ords making a run for it, currently +2%. All sectors are showing gains with Property Trusts leading, +3%, IT next at +2.7% and Energy +2.4%. Consumer Discretionary is up the least, +1.3%.
Miners are still thinking about it: BHP +2.5%, RIO flat and in the golds, Newcrest +0.4%, Newmont -1.5% and Lihir -0.3%.
Oils very strong: Woodside +2.5%, Santos +3.5% and Caltex +2.9%.
aussiebear
Feb 1 2008, 05:38 AM

All Ords managed quite a rocket launch today but that brings us neatly to resistance on the daily chart. The index closed +3.3% with impressive gains in most sectors. Out in front was IT +4.5% followed by Materials +3.7% and miners +3.6%. Telecomms had the least gain, +1.8%.
The big miners had another day of gains: BHP +4% and RIO +3.5%. Golds didn't do a lot: Newcrest +1.2%, Newmont -2.4% and Lihir -0.8%. Juniors up.
Big gains on the oils: Woodside +4.6%, Santos +5.4% and Caltex +5.8%.
Asia all over the place: China -4%, Nikkers -0.5%, Honkers +0.8% and Taiwan +2%.
Over to UK/Europe:


http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
fxfox
Feb 1 2008, 09:06 AM
German Midcaps (MDAX) weekly
9000 is a must sell. Full tits short when it goes there.
[attachmentid=95278]
fxfox
Feb 1 2008, 09:17 AM
All Ords weekly
sorry to say, but this setup is MEGA bullish. Just think the chart would be upside down, you would go full tits short! I see at least 6240. Fact is: The MEGA bullsih candle from last week was NOT reversed this week. Thats bullish. Very.
[attachmentid=95279]
aussiebear
Feb 1 2008, 11:45 AM
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 1 2008, 06:17 PM)
All Ords weekly
sorry to say, but this setup is MEGA bullish. Just think the chart would be upside down, you would go full tits short! I see at least 6240. Fact is: The MEGA bullsih candle from last week was NOT reversed this week. Thats bullish. Very.
Yes, agree fxfox...I can see 6400 being revisited..
Charmin
Feb 1 2008, 12:09 PM
The golden GATA affect? Go Gold.
The Wall Street Journal ad by GATA
http://www.gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal
Peek Paper
Feb 1 2008, 12:33 PM
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 1 2008, 04:17 AM)
All Ords weekly
sorry to say, but this setup is MEGA bullish. Just think the chart would be upside down, you would go full tits short! I see at least 6240. Fact is: The MEGA bullsih candle from last week was NOT reversed this week. Thats bullish. Very.
[attachmentid=95279]
The Ords may be different, but the world is geosynchronous at the moment.
Cramer was a raving lunatic bull (on US stocks) the other night. Not that he's not a raving looney on any other night. It just seems he had a tailwind behind him.
This is the last failed rally before the "beeg" decline ... adding SPX puts yesterday at close, prolly the same today if we close up.
This is EOM bs, and the news noise is just show. This bounce was palpable before hand. It will be sold with a vengeance. Maybe not today, however.
I'm buying duration (3 mos.) rather than strike price on this rally. Watching VIX and spreads carefully.
DrStool
Feb 1 2008, 12:38 PM
Wow. Monster deal. Monster market move.
potatohead
Feb 1 2008, 12:39 PM
I have been following this trader for a year. He has been very accurate on most of his calls. He puts out a video and trading ideas almost everyday. Please watch his video and tell me your thoughts. He had been bullish up until the turn in the markets, then accurately called the breaks down. He is stressing to sell rallies rather than buy dips. He is currently bearish but is purely a TA trader.
Go to DAILY OMNI for today's ideas.
Go to Daily Video for the video. by the way the video was done at 5:15 am est, before the yahoo announcement.
http://www.futurestraders.com/
Peek Paper
Feb 1 2008, 12:40 PM
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 1 2008, 07:38 AM)
Wow. Monster deal. Monster market move.
Yup. Yahoo shorts done blowed outta day watta ... The Al Queda news yesterday was the clue.
Yahoo has contracts with some ISP's, notably ATT. I may buy ATT calls anticipating a reverb effect. I doubt the bounce lasts through next week.
When the big guys are getting M&A'd ... is it a top, or a bottom? The start - or passing - of an era? I was at SoftImage in Montreal the day after Gates bought 'em (mid 90's). I have never seen so many deer looking at so many headlights in my life. But it was prolly a different scene in the boardroom.
Almost immediately, 3D/CAD graphics became non-competitive. ILM, later...Pixar, Wavefront ... Silicon Graphics ... Gates wiped out a sub-culture, of geeks with artistic taste, with the stroke of a pen.
Same thing is happening at Yahoo, I'm sure.
Softee gets a boot-up net hit with YHOO, and much improved content over MSN, IMHO. How much that is worth is debatable, especially when the bellweather (GOOG) had poor earnings last quarter.
Tech is dead as market leader. DotCom is REALLY dead.
Nostalgia can be profitable, however.
Jetlag
Feb 1 2008, 01:07 PM
Gigglers shouldn't be too happy. What's the gigglers weight on Nasquack 100?

Not much of a premium for LT holders.
Sudaca
Feb 1 2008, 01:13 PM
What's next ? GOOG buys MBIA ?
Sudaca
Feb 1 2008, 01:17 PM
1406 still my target for this move. Of course, I was shaken off the ride, so it will probably go to the 50 dma at 1425ish without me. Oh well... He who fights and runs away, still gets to trade MBIA.
Peek Paper
Feb 1 2008, 01:39 PM
MBIA is on the too-big-to-fail short list (short in the non-investment sense). The guys a couple rungs down the sub-primer pecking order are the ones to short.
They used to be called home builders.
linrom
Feb 1 2008, 01:42 PM
Jobs numbers down. Too many folks were gaming ADP report. ADP is not a reliable indicator of employment because it only looks at head counts at firms using ADP payroll services.
GDP numbers are going to be negative, like pointed out in my unemployment increase-to GDP model. In December, the unemployment rate jumped to 5% form 4.7, which was one of the biggest increases in 60 years.
DrStool
Feb 1 2008, 01:43 PM
Looks an awful lot like the late November move.
DrStool
Feb 1 2008, 01:45 PM
That just about completes reversal of the Yahoo deal move.
DrStool
Feb 1 2008, 01:46 PM
What a market.
fxfox
Feb 1 2008, 01:58 PM
Can anyone explain to my why market reacted so positive on that Mafiasoft/Yeehaw deal?
Is it because it anticipates further buyouts by MSFT pf pther companies? Or is their any other theory behind it that i didnt consider?
I thin 31 per share is a bit much, overvalued so to say. Market shouldnt react positive if a blue chip company pays to much for a other company, no?
4shzl
Feb 1 2008, 02:00 PM
QUOTE(Peek Paper @ Feb 1 2008, 04:40 AM)
When the big guys are getting M&A'd ... is it a top, or a bottom? The start - or passing - of an era?
As in TW buys AOL?
Mies van der Rump
Feb 1 2008, 02:00 PM
Jobs report...told you i know nothing Bungster! lol Wow, this market is manic. If we have a large enough PUBLIC dislocation this thing is going to absolutely crack.
(seeing the insurer bailout all the banks are trying to put together, it appears obvious why no one is downgrading them from triple A...just buying as much time as possible)
Roger7485
Feb 1 2008, 02:03 PM
So right now Im pretty sure the right play is to sell the open and hold short all day, an exact mirror image of yesterday. Seeing as ive been 100% wrong over the last week or so, you should all probably dong with reckless abandon. Trade safe out there stoolies.
K Wave Rider
Feb 1 2008, 02:06 PM
wild morning already and the fraudexes aint even open yet
K Wave Rider
Feb 1 2008, 02:07 PM
Pound breakin'...watching Euro for reversal here
fxfox
Feb 1 2008, 02:09 PM
As I said 9000 is a must sell in MDAX, we hit 9005, now we are 100 points lower.
fxfox
Feb 1 2008, 02:10 PM
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Feb 1 2008, 09:07 AM)
Pound breakin'...watching Euro for reversal here
would have loved to see a spike to 1.50, then full tits short. There are tons of stops, these should be stopped out.
potatohead
Feb 1 2008, 02:11 PM
*DJ Russian Central Bank Lifts Short-Term Lending Rates
*DJ Russian Central Bank Also Raises Short-Term Deposit Rates
K Wave Rider
Feb 1 2008, 02:14 PM
just need to retake 12,600 to seal this top
K Wave Rider
Feb 1 2008, 02:16 PM
Euro Finga
4shzl
Feb 1 2008, 02:17 PM
Synergy is the crack cocaine of the boardroom set. If the fraudexes ignore megabullish M&A newsnoise like this just because the economy is sliding into a severe recession -- well, that's just a real shame.
K Wave Rider
Feb 1 2008, 02:24 PM
Euro losing its grip
I_Am_Madness
Feb 1 2008, 02:24 PM
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 1 2008, 08:58 AM)
Can anyone explain to my why market reacted so positive on that Mafiasoft/Yeehaw deal?
Is it because it anticipates further buyouts by MSFT pf pther companies? Or is their any other theory behind it that i didnt consider?
I thin 31 per share is a bit much, overvalued so to say. Market shouldnt react positive if a blue chip company pays to much for a other company, no?
What i don't understand is....MSFT is down over 5% when the deal was announced and it's a component of the DOW. You would figure a 5% down move on one of it's component would affect the DOW futures on the up side. It shot up like 160 points instead!
guyb
Feb 1 2008, 02:30 PM
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Feb 1 2008, 09:24 AM)
What i don't understand is....MSFT is down over 5% when the deal was announced and it's a component of the DOW. You would figure a 5% down move on one of it's component would affect the DOW futures on the up side. It shot up like 160 points instead!
In the short term yhoo is -10% below the bid price. Suggesting that arbs think they will reject the offer. Hence Msft should recover the 5%.
potatohead
Feb 1 2008, 02:30 PM
K Wave Rider
Feb 1 2008, 02:33 PM
GS still playin the 200 game
K Wave Rider
Feb 1 2008, 02:38 PM
this has all the makin's of stellar pop'n'drop
Euro accelerating the drop. let's see if da Dow will play along
patents
Feb 1 2008, 02:38 PM
I need a reality check for my perspective.
According to the released employment data and the CES birth death model, I calculate that the number of new jobs created BEFORE the CES birth death adjustment was +361 thousand. Applying the CES model data of -378 thousand for January 08 to that number would result in the released -17 thousand.
Somehow, I do not perceive that the US economy added 361 thousand jobs in January.
Am I missing something here?
Thnx.
linrom
Feb 1 2008, 02:40 PM
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Feb 1 2008, 10:24 AM)
What i don't understand is....MSFT is down over 5% when the deal was announced and it's a component of the DOW. You would figure a 5% down move on one of it's component would affect the DOW futures on the up side. It shot up like 160 points instead!
Manipulation of investor psychology. DOW is down only 17pts, it should be down a lot more than that.
K Wave Rider
Feb 1 2008, 02:40 PM
Gold coming the wrong way thru 930...careful out there...if she prints a long red one here, could get ugly for a bit
DrStool
Feb 1 2008, 02:42 PM
qqqq exceeded and has pulled back from 3 day cycle projection of 44.75, now hitting the 3 day cycle MA at 45.36 as first test of support. 5 day is below at 44.95. 3 day cycle indicators have edged to sell side. 5 day still on by side but extended.
potatohead
Feb 1 2008, 02:43 PM
DJ Fed Accepts $12 Bln In 3-Day RPs
Type of transaction: 3-Day RPs
Total accepted: $12 Bln
Total submitted: $93.35 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $493 Mln
Total submitted: $44.4 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.25%
Weighted Average: 3.25%
High-rate submitted: 3.25%
Low-rate submitted: 3%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $11.507 Bln
Total submitted: $21.65 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.25%
Weighted Average: 2.33%
High-rate submitted: 2.4%
Low-rate submitted: 2.1%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $27.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.3%
Low-rate submitted: 3.1%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
DrStool
Feb 1 2008, 02:44 PM
spx 3 day cycle projection is pointing much higher, to around 1420, but because of the wild gyrations of the past two days, I have some doubt that this projection is valid. If they take out the highs here, then it probably is, but there are multiple layers of resistance lines between 1384 and 1400 that will be tough to traverse.
DrStool
Feb 1 2008, 02:46 PM
similar pic on the Dow with a projection of 12,900 but multiple resistance lines between 12,700 and 12,800.
fxfox
Feb 1 2008, 02:51 PM
TA aint no voodoo thing, just a thing of support and resistance, trendlines and channels.
Example: Todays top in EUR/USD by channel projection
[attachmentid=95281]
potatohead
Feb 1 2008, 02:54 PM
new definition of irony.......these guys are all looking for capital to...WTF?
DJ Eight Banks Form Group To Seek Bond Insurer Rescue -Crapvision
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Eight banks have formed a consortium in an effort to
rescue bond insurers, Crapvision's Steve Leisman said Friday morning.
The banks include the Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS), Societe
Generale (SCGLY), Wachovia Corp. (WB), BNP Paribus SA (BNPQY), Barclays PLC
(BCS), Dresdner Bank AG, UBS AG (UBS) and Citigroup Inc. ©.
The group will work on a solution with the bond insurers and the New York
State Insurance Deparment.
I_Am_Madness
Feb 1 2008, 02:58 PM
China in crash alert. If 4,200 don't hold........
K Wave Rider
Feb 1 2008, 03:01 PM
Euro freefalll
Lemur
Feb 1 2008, 03:01 PM
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 1 2008, 02:51 PM)
TA aint no voodoo thing, just a thing of support and resistance, trendlines and channels.
Example: Todays top in EUR/USD by channel projection
[attachmentid=95281]
I'm long EURGBP and short GBPUSD. To me this is a safer play than EURUSD. The ECB has been sounding really hawkish lately with eurozone inflation picking up to over 3%.
Gold still indecisive here.
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