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Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
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aussiebear
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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices


aussiebear
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All Ords making a run for it, currently +2%. All sectors are showing gains with Property Trusts leading, +3%, IT next at +2.7% and Energy +2.4%. Consumer Discretionary is up the least, +1.3%.

Miners are still thinking about it: BHP +2.5%, RIO flat and in the golds, Newcrest +0.4%, Newmont -1.5% and Lihir -0.3%.

Oils very strong: Woodside +2.5%, Santos +3.5% and Caltex +2.9%.


aussiebear
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All Ords managed quite a rocket launch today but that brings us neatly to resistance on the daily chart. The index closed +3.3% with impressive gains in most sectors. Out in front was IT +4.5% followed by Materials +3.7% and miners +3.6%. Telecomms had the least gain, +1.8%.

The big miners had another day of gains: BHP +4% and RIO +3.5%. Golds didn't do a lot: Newcrest +1.2%, Newmont -2.4% and Lihir -0.8%. Juniors up.

Big gains on the oils: Woodside +4.6%, Santos +5.4% and Caltex +5.8%.

Asia all over the place: China -4%, Nikkers -0.5%, Honkers +0.8% and Taiwan +2%.


Over to UK/Europe:

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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe


fxfox
German Midcaps (MDAX) weekly

9000 is a must sell. Full tits short when it goes there.

[attachmentid=95278]
fxfox
All Ords weekly

sorry to say, but this setup is MEGA bullish. Just think the chart would be upside down, you would go full tits short! I see at least 6240. Fact is: The MEGA bullsih candle from last week was NOT reversed this week. Thats bullish. Very.

[attachmentid=95279]
aussiebear
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 1 2008, 06:17 PM)
All Ords weekly

sorry to say, but this setup is MEGA bullish. Just think the chart would be upside down, you would go full tits short! I see at least 6240. Fact is: The MEGA bullsih candle from last week was NOT reversed this week. Thats bullish. Very.
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Yes, agree fxfox...I can see 6400 being revisited.. wink.gif






Charmin
The golden GATA affect? Go Gold.

The Wall Street Journal ad by GATA
http://www.gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal
Peek Paper
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 1 2008, 04:17 AM)
All Ords weekly

sorry to say, but this setup is MEGA bullish. Just think the chart would be upside down, you would go full tits short! I see at least 6240. Fact is: The MEGA bullsih candle from last week was NOT reversed this week. Thats bullish. Very.

[attachmentid=95279]
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The Ords may be different, but the world is geosynchronous at the moment.

Cramer was a raving lunatic bull (on US stocks) the other night. Not that he's not a raving looney on any other night. It just seems he had a tailwind behind him.

This is the last failed rally before the "beeg" decline ... adding SPX puts yesterday at close, prolly the same today if we close up.

This is EOM bs, and the news noise is just show. This bounce was palpable before hand. It will be sold with a vengeance. Maybe not today, however.

I'm buying duration (3 mos.) rather than strike price on this rally. Watching VIX and spreads carefully.
DrStool
Wow. Monster deal. Monster market move.
potatohead
I have been following this trader for a year. He has been very accurate on most of his calls. He puts out a video and trading ideas almost everyday. Please watch his video and tell me your thoughts. He had been bullish up until the turn in the markets, then accurately called the breaks down. He is stressing to sell rallies rather than buy dips. He is currently bearish but is purely a TA trader.

Go to DAILY OMNI for today's ideas.
Go to Daily Video for the video. by the way the video was done at 5:15 am est, before the yahoo announcement.

http://www.futurestraders.com/
Peek Paper
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 1 2008, 07:38 AM)
Wow. Monster deal.  Monster market move.
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Yup. Yahoo shorts done blowed outta day watta ... The Al Queda news yesterday was the clue.

Yahoo has contracts with some ISP's, notably ATT. I may buy ATT calls anticipating a reverb effect. I doubt the bounce lasts through next week.

When the big guys are getting M&A'd ... is it a top, or a bottom? The start - or passing - of an era? I was at SoftImage in Montreal the day after Gates bought 'em (mid 90's). I have never seen so many deer looking at so many headlights in my life. But it was prolly a different scene in the boardroom.

Almost immediately, 3D/CAD graphics became non-competitive. ILM, later...Pixar, Wavefront ... Silicon Graphics ... Gates wiped out a sub-culture, of geeks with artistic taste, with the stroke of a pen.

Same thing is happening at Yahoo, I'm sure.

Softee gets a boot-up net hit with YHOO, and much improved content over MSN, IMHO. How much that is worth is debatable, especially when the bellweather (GOOG) had poor earnings last quarter.

Tech is dead as market leader. DotCom is REALLY dead.

Nostalgia can be profitable, however.
Jetlag
Gigglers shouldn't be too happy. What's the gigglers weight on Nasquack 100?

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Not much of a premium for LT holders.
Sudaca
What's next ? GOOG buys MBIA ?
Sudaca
1406 still my target for this move. Of course, I was shaken off the ride, so it will probably go to the 50 dma at 1425ish without me. Oh well... He who fights and runs away, still gets to trade MBIA.
Peek Paper
MBIA is on the too-big-to-fail short list (short in the non-investment sense). The guys a couple rungs down the sub-primer pecking order are the ones to short.

They used to be called home builders.
linrom
Jobs numbers down. Too many folks were gaming ADP report. ADP is not a reliable indicator of employment because it only looks at head counts at firms using ADP payroll services.

GDP numbers are going to be negative, like pointed out in my unemployment increase-to GDP model. In December, the unemployment rate jumped to 5% form 4.7, which was one of the biggest increases in 60 years.
DrStool
Looks an awful lot like the late November move.
DrStool
That just about completes reversal of the Yahoo deal move.
DrStool
What a market.
fxfox
Can anyone explain to my why market reacted so positive on that Mafiasoft/Yeehaw deal?

Is it because it anticipates further buyouts by MSFT pf pther companies? Or is their any other theory behind it that i didnt consider?

I thin 31 per share is a bit much, overvalued so to say. Market shouldnt react positive if a blue chip company pays to much for a other company, no?
4shzl
QUOTE(Peek Paper @ Feb 1 2008, 04:40 AM)
When the big guys are getting M&A'd ... is it a top, or a bottom? The start - or passing - of an era?

As in TW buys AOL? dry.gif
Mies van der Rump
Jobs report...told you i know nothing Bungster! lol Wow, this market is manic. If we have a large enough PUBLIC dislocation this thing is going to absolutely crack.

(seeing the insurer bailout all the banks are trying to put together, it appears obvious why no one is downgrading them from triple A...just buying as much time as possible)
Roger7485
So right now Im pretty sure the right play is to sell the open and hold short all day, an exact mirror image of yesterday. Seeing as ive been 100% wrong over the last week or so, you should all probably dong with reckless abandon. Trade safe out there stoolies.
K Wave Rider
wild morning already and the fraudexes aint even open yet laugh.gif
K Wave Rider
Pound breakin'...watching Euro for reversal here
fxfox
As I said 9000 is a must sell in MDAX, we hit 9005, now we are 100 points lower.
fxfox
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Feb 1 2008, 09:07 AM)
Pound breakin'...watching Euro for reversal here
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would have loved to see a spike to 1.50, then full tits short. There are tons of stops, these should be stopped out.
potatohead

*DJ Russian Central Bank Lifts Short-Term Lending Rates

*DJ Russian Central Bank Also Raises Short-Term Deposit Rates
K Wave Rider
just need to retake 12,600 to seal this top
K Wave Rider
Euro Finga
4shzl
Synergy is the crack cocaine of the boardroom set. If the fraudexes ignore megabullish M&A newsnoise like this just because the economy is sliding into a severe recession -- well, that's just a real shame. wink.gif
K Wave Rider
Euro losing its grip
I_Am_Madness
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 1 2008, 08:58 AM)
Can anyone explain to my why market reacted so positive on that Mafiasoft/Yeehaw deal?

Is it because it anticipates further buyouts by MSFT pf pther companies? Or is their any other theory behind it that i didnt consider?

I thin 31 per share is a bit much, overvalued so to say. Market shouldnt react positive if a blue chip company pays to much for a other company, no?
*



What i don't understand is....MSFT is down over 5% when the deal was announced and it's a component of the DOW. You would figure a 5% down move on one of it's component would affect the DOW futures on the up side. It shot up like 160 points instead!
guyb
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Feb 1 2008, 09:24 AM)
What i don't understand is....MSFT is down over 5% when the deal was announced and it's a component of the DOW.  You would figure a 5% down move on one of it's component would affect the DOW futures on the up side.  It shot up like 160 points instead!
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In the short term yhoo is -10% below the bid price. Suggesting that arbs think they will reject the offer. Hence Msft should recover the 5%.
potatohead
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Feb 1 2008, 08:24 AM)
What i don't understand is....MSFT is down over 5% when the deal was announced and it's a component of the DOW.  You would figure a 5% down move on one of it's component would affect the DOW futures on the up side.  It shot up like 160 points instead!
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my only thoughts on this market.....this says it all...........

wacko.gif wacko.gif wacko.gif wacko.gif wacko.gif
K Wave Rider
GS still playin the 200 game
K Wave Rider
this has all the makin's of stellar pop'n'drop


Euro accelerating the drop. let's see if da Dow will play along
patents
I need a reality check for my perspective.

According to the released employment data and the CES birth death model, I calculate that the number of new jobs created BEFORE the CES birth death adjustment was +361 thousand. Applying the CES model data of -378 thousand for January 08 to that number would result in the released -17 thousand.

Somehow, I do not perceive that the US economy added 361 thousand jobs in January.

Am I missing something here?

Thnx.
linrom
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Feb 1 2008, 10:24 AM)
What i don't understand is....MSFT is down over 5% when the deal was announced and it's a component of the DOW.  You would figure a 5% down move on one of it's component would affect the DOW futures on the up side.  It shot up like 160 points instead!
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Manipulation of investor psychology. DOW is down only 17pts, it should be down a lot more than that.
K Wave Rider
Gold coming the wrong way thru 930...careful out there...if she prints a long red one here, could get ugly for a bit
DrStool
qqqq exceeded and has pulled back from 3 day cycle projection of 44.75, now hitting the 3 day cycle MA at 45.36 as first test of support. 5 day is below at 44.95. 3 day cycle indicators have edged to sell side. 5 day still on by side but extended.
potatohead

DJ Fed Accepts $12 Bln In 3-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 3-Day RPs
Total accepted: $12 Bln
Total submitted: $93.35 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $493 Mln
Total submitted: $44.4 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.25%
Weighted Average: 3.25%
High-rate submitted: 3.25%
Low-rate submitted: 3%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $11.507 Bln
Total submitted: $21.65 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.25%
Weighted Average: 2.33%
High-rate submitted: 2.4%
Low-rate submitted: 2.1%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $27.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.3%
Low-rate submitted: 3.1%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
DrStool
spx 3 day cycle projection is pointing much higher, to around 1420, but because of the wild gyrations of the past two days, I have some doubt that this projection is valid. If they take out the highs here, then it probably is, but there are multiple layers of resistance lines between 1384 and 1400 that will be tough to traverse.
DrStool
similar pic on the Dow with a projection of 12,900 but multiple resistance lines between 12,700 and 12,800.
fxfox
TA aint no voodoo thing, just a thing of support and resistance, trendlines and channels.

Example: Todays top in EUR/USD by channel projection

[attachmentid=95281]
potatohead
new definition of irony.......these guys are all looking for capital to...WTF?

DJ Eight Banks Form Group To Seek Bond Insurer Rescue -Crapvision

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Eight banks have formed a consortium in an effort to
rescue bond insurers, Crapvision's Steve Leisman said Friday morning.

The banks include the Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS), Societe
Generale (SCGLY), Wachovia Corp. (WB), BNP Paribus SA (BNPQY), Barclays PLC
(BCS), Dresdner Bank AG, UBS AG (UBS) and Citigroup Inc. ©.

The group will work on a solution with the bond insurers and the New York
State Insurance Deparment.
I_Am_Madness
China in crash alert. If 4,200 don't hold........ ohmy.gif
K Wave Rider
Euro freefalll
Lemur
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 1 2008, 02:51 PM)
TA aint no voodoo thing, just a thing of support and resistance, trendlines and channels.

Example: Todays top in EUR/USD by channel projection

[attachmentid=95281]
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I'm long EURGBP and short GBPUSD. To me this is a safer play than EURUSD. The ECB has been sounding really hawkish lately with eurozone inflation picking up to over 3%.

Gold still indecisive here.
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