Bush made remarks on the economy carried live in the financial media today. For once, the market didn't tank after he spoke. Instead it rallied all afternoon.

It's all good.

Remember, never base a short position on funny mentals. Regardless of the fact that falling interest rates may not be bullish for the market as a whole, professional investors regard them as universally bullish for interest sensitive stocks, and real estate in particular. It's not the least bit insane for these sectors to be rallying here. The market is just following time tested conventional wisdom. That doesn't make it right, but belief drives stock prices, just like it drives religion. It makes absolutely zero difference if it's true.

wow cant believe MU finally made that bounce. was eyeing it, but anything going to hell in a handbag at that rate, i wont touch. who had the balls of steel and capitalized on it?

For Doc:


Jim Rogers

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Dok
What amazes me is the monumental indiffeence towards Hyman Minsky; its almost as if he never lived....Some say, and I agree with them, that without having read something by him ,whether it be an article, a page, or even a paragrph, at least three little words ---INVESTMENT,SPECULATION,PONZI-- one wouldn't have any ides about our economy today..

Incidentally those three words are the pithiest ones describing the business cycle...

Its almost as if People would rather commit intellectual suicide rather than pay homage to such simple and easy to understand ideas---so commom-senseicle is he that reading him so late in one's life is,indeed, an embarasssment

beardrech

Markets are having a negative impact on my liver...

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i traded MU and made some coin in Dec .... I pretty much got made fun of, people called me names and referred to me as a chic from a commercial for E trade or something like that.....

I missed this bounce ... Tooo Baaaaaaaaad

From Herb Greenberg's blog

Say hello to the Hot-and-Sour Soup Indicator. Right now the indicator it’s flashing yellow with a tinge of red.

Here’s why: This Chinese restaurant I go to in Del Mar — the one with a great view of the Pacific beyond the Torrey Pines bridge — is really good. The hot-and-sour soup can’t be beat. Been going there for years. Last night the general manager, who knows what I do for a living, asked me about the economy. I could tell from her question that she was hoping I’d say, “Better.”

“I don’t know,” I told her. “How is it for you?”

Her: “Slow and getting slower.”

Me: “What are your friends in the business saying?”

Her: “Slow.”

Me: “In San Diego? Nationally?”

Her: Slow here and everywhere.”

Then she threw this curve ball: “And it’s slow in Hong Kong, too.”

Me: “Hong Kong?”

Her: “Yes, China is slowing.”

Some people scoff about this anecdotal evidence, but in many ways it beats the rear view mirror of government numbers. And given how things have gone, I believe the Hot-and-Sour Soup Indicator is as credible as the official numbers or anything else.

There is, after all, nothing more forward looking that what’s happening right now.


http://blogs.marketwatch.com/greenberg/

Donging MER looks to be the play for the rest of the year. One of their muni bond customers (Springfield, MASS) returned their goods and got their money back.

The stock rallied 2 bucks+



I'm thinking there's a lot more where that came from!

stick a fork in goog

Anyone see WM. Up almost 100% since the lows 2 weeks back.

I suppose in some meta sense this money printing thing has some merit and in the biggest sense he's right that we are going to hell in a hand basket as far as died in the wool bears like us are concerned but the money printing thing is BS and I think his way of talking his own book. His book being commodities and he wants more money comming into them.

How much money is enough for these guys anyway? I know, it's the game, but he surely must know the game has consequences. He lives in China now I heard. How many there are going to go hungry with wheat at $10. $10 is more than enough based upon any funnymental imaginable. He wants $15 evidently, just for fun.

I'm just really relieved that the short squeeze is happening now.

The Fed isn't printing money. The Fed is contracting the monetary base.

This will end badly.

Doc, you're not gonna convince anybody. People are going to believe what they want to believe.

Even here on the Stool, with some of the most contrarian minds in 'da Biz, certain habits die hard among many.

It doesn't matter to me whether no one believes it. I am just reporting the data. The Fed's SOMA, plus the TAF and discount window borrowings is down about 13 billion from this time last year. And it's way down since the TAF auctions began.

The great unanswered question is, WHY?

UPDATE: Google will be bought out by itself

Responding to Microsoft's takeover bid of Yahoo, Internet giant Google has decided to buy itself. Share prices jumped 500% on the news, as investors cheered trading their shares for 20% of the value.

"The enormous potential and undervaluation was something we couldn't ignore," says Larry Page. Google says it will focus the next year on integrating Google unto itself.

"It's our top priority," says CEO Eric Schmidt. "The enormous growth potential in Google could not be overlooked by us. When you combine the revenue of the two companies, I mean think about it."

"Don't forget the cost savings. With another Google, they can axe all the employees of the existing Google," said Goldman's Sack ANALyst Josh Weinstein, who went beyond the usual rating system to give it a TRIPLE MO'-FO' BUY.

I agree, Doc's has been saying/reporting about that for months - and each day people link/state about Fed pumping - so they either do not read what he reports - I am not that report subscriber - or they just are victims of main stream media bad reporting.

someone must be wrong.

It all going to end on OpEX day. IMO, panic should be setting in going into 1st qtr earnings or rather lack of earnings. For instance, VLO, one of the bigger refiners reported earnings that send the stock up 10%. The trouble is, those earnings were lower than in 2005. They are unable to pass higher costs to consumers: every other company is in the same boat. Those companies that reported good numbers, without exception said that strong overseas sales offset lower sales in US.

So today they powered stocks at the opening, signaling that they were going to support this market today and ignored the mantra that as long as people have jobs, the economy is going to be okay. Well? Earlier during the week, flat GDP numbers were ignored on rate cuts.

The market will crash going into PEI low in March, that's all there is to it.

In retrospect, I was never a real bear, but, those GDP and employment numbers can't be ignored.

I wonder if farmers are getting a big paycheck now with all the commodity increase. My wife's folks from Wisconsin retired from dairy farming 500 acres and sold all but 80 acres to live on, but they didn't get rich. As a matter of fact, with property taxes and health care taking most of their retirement, they sold their property to their son. At least it's still in the family. If I would have known better 20 years ago, I could have hinted that they take a few thousand bucks and invest in DE Deare. With that they may have had a few bucks in the banks now. Some old timers never invested in anything but their own hard labor.

I remember the Museum of Science and Industry. It was among my favorite places in greater Shitcago. I was an army brat aged 10-12 living in Skokie. Mostly I remember the U-boat, aircraft hanging and human fetuses in jars. I wonder if the Geezus brownshirt crowd has had those jars hidden away since?

There must be a dictionery somewhere of Brand names that have been absorbed by the english language as generic definitions of a thing, like kleenex for tissue and the JOY for a mining machine. Brainwashed indeed, and now by media to the third power. I will look up the JOY machine tho' for the picks'n'shovel dealer.

Speaking of picks'n'shovels, Lineup, the Sox looks to be receiving rotationalized money. The book to bill ain't much at .89 for Dec., but has increased (according to this 1/17 Release of the report) for 3 months straight from the Sept. low of .79. I guess the msft/youwho news was the sparkplug. Are we going to play 'tech is back' now for a while?

Last week I was a genius and this week I was a moran. I trimmed leverage and will wait for the "next shoe" to drop. A downgrade of the bond insurers might be the big catalyst for bears. OR maybe the pigsters will suspend all bad news for reasons of national corporate security.

Yep, I cried Uncle this morning......

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It looks like the Politicians have just found a new gold egg laying goose. The Fraudsters take the bad paper back, pay a big Adminstrative FEE, read Kickback and not admit any guilt.
The Politicians don't want to strangle the golden goose.
I hope the Fraudsters have a lot of golden eggs because they are going to need them all .
This looks like death by a thousand small cuts.

I posted this EFII chart on Tuesday when it was at $14. Today it closed at $15.32 and looks like it'll fill that big gap. The CEO bought 30,000 shares last friday in a show of support.

Hey, looks like your out. Here, let me pour you some of mine.

Must be the good news that several employees are turning them in on deliberate mortgage fraud.

But, but, but, but, but.....

That's not what the press and all the financial goooooorooooos are saying!

Just pulling your chain, Doc.

What is the significance of IMF? Where is all this money coming from? And why does the FED tie this chart to recessions?

damn.

I'm as bearish as the next guy BUT.....

I've been following when there are divergences on the NASI indicator....see for yourself.....It seems to indicate intermediate turning points....and right now there is a positive divergence showing here....

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THE GREAT CHINESE SHARE ATTACK

OR THE NEW EQUITY COLONIES REVEALED

The chinese buys of wall street and now 15% of Rio Tinto are no suprise

The chinese equity attack will concentrate on two fronts:

(1) Stopping American protectionist moves

(2) Ensuring a cheap supply of raw materials


Number one fits in with the Wall Street buys as they try to influence (or should I say buy) the American Political establishment - and shoring up Paulsons and Ruebens pals Im sure buys them lots of doggie points on this front.

Number 2 fits in with the rio tinto play as the last thing they want is BHP get control of Rio and control a large segment of chinese raw material purchases.

PS Feb an up month for stocks

Financials above the 20 and 50 DMA and broke the downtrend line.....careful...

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SOX held at 355 and is motoring towards 385 and 420 next....

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Canslim.net misinformation for today

"Mergers and acquisitions are beginning to resurface as a hot-bed of activity while the Fed continues to flood the Street with cash."
http://www.canslim.net/mc/MCCurrent.asp

they always make it sound like it is money for nothing and chicks for free.
surprising that nobody ever asked how it is done, who gets that "flood of cash".

280

patience

has the market looked out over the abyss or are we headed much,much lower?

I feel bullish about the markets short to medium term.. (usually means we plunge from here.. )

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/artic...ousing-Meltdown

what a shame today a perfectly good Nardsaq selloff got ruined by Steve Ballme & conpany

googus interruptus, down only 50 instead of 100

butt at least now MSFTYHOO opens up the real possibility of seeing the jickiss RCA 1929 type GOOG 40 call come true

we'll just have to wait for my support at 303 to be taken out first

in the meantime we had to suffer through yet another standard gov't Friday -- triple buckoff in crude, $30 gold slapdown from green high to red showclose, 200-point Dow goose from red low to green showclose -- same ol' weekend greenprint scam

the Yahoo article about the 'housing meltdown' is very interesting.

It basically makes the claim that a huge chunk of real estate buyers are gone,never to return.

From baby boomers to subprime borrowers.

What % of the market they make up is unknown but it must be fairly significant.

I am in the camp that says housing will deflate for at least 10 to 15 yrs.

if/when the IT tips over in the next couple of weeks...it's gonna get fugly

Dr. Irwin Kellner has a solution!

Apparently he reads the Stool, because he stole my idea of giving tax-free gov't grants (not loans) to homebuyers to buy a house.

He was on the radio today pushing the idea. Only thing is, unlike me, he wasn't joking, he was serious.

And he actually proposed handing out grants to both buyers AND sellers!!!

I guess that means, for example, if a $20K 900 sqft gravel-lawned SoCal mini stucco crapbox is listed at $600K and the only offers are around $400K, the gov't (i.e., YOU) will hand $100K to the buyer and $100K to the seller and close the deal with a $400K mrotgouge, also guaranteed by the gov't (i.e., YOU).

GOOG is falling about 100 points per month

at this rate it could hit 40 by July

impossible?

we'll see

price levels mean nothing

the trend is everything

right now, GOOG is creating tremendous wealth

for bears

It sure as hell isn't me. This isn't a matter of opinion, it's a matter of fact. The data is available to the public in the H41 report on the Fed website every Thursday night (Table 2. Consolidated Statement of Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks). The Fed has reduced the factors supplying reserves (essentially the total SOMA, TAF, and discount window borrowings) over the past year, and especially since they began the TAF auctions. I update this data daily based on the Fed's OMO and TAF auctions, and reconcile it with the weekly statement. Then I present it in graphical form for those who, like me, are data challenged. It's a lot easier to see on a chart.

Tim Paradis of the AP got in touch with me about it today and we had a long conversation about it.,I told him that I understood that the picture that I was revealing is probably too technical for mass market publications. He agreed, but he is very interested and wants me to keep him posted because he believes it's an important story, and he wants to work it in to his reports. Tim is the stock market reporter for AP. He's a bright guy, and the only reporter who has shown a true interest.

In the meantime WSE Pro subscribers get the benefit of knowing the truth every day, along with my feeble attempts at analyzing what it might mean for us today and in the future.



These are lagging indicators because the data is based on superficial surveys that don't reflect the changes as they are occurring. The driver is liquidity and the stock market is a real time indicator. While the economy begins turning simultaneously, we don't get the news until months later, unless you are reading Russ Winter's blog. Russ gets closer to the real picture through following unconventional data sources that aren't manipulated by the government.

If you are trading the market, the government economic data is irrelevant because it is always out out of sync with actual conditions. The are only two indicators for the market. One is the market itself, and the other is broad liquidity measures, and they are a distant second.




This is the primary component in the explosion of the broad money supply data. It is coming from the CP market. The increase in institutional money funds and a couple of other measures matches, almost dollar for dollar, the drop in asset backed commercial paper outstanding. This is the real cause of the collapse in money rates.

The Fed shows recessions on all of its FRED charts. There's an option to turn off that feature. The FRED website is a wonderful resource. Another is economagic.com.

Shorty you are going to have to be more careful about what you are saying. You never know who is reading the Stool.

Richard Russell has turned BULLISH. Is the top near?

Based on what I've seen so far, I have to think that the D-J Transportation Average is telling the story. From the Transport low of 4140.29 recorded on January 17, the Transports rallied to today's closing high of 4807. That's a rally of 667 points! It's been a huge advance on the part of the Transports. And I have to think that the Transports have said "bye bye" to their January lows.

It follows that if the Transports have recorded their lows, then no matter what the Dow does, the correction or decline or bear market or whatever you want to call it -- has ended. There may be a lot of lousy news coming up, and that lousy news may rock the market, but unless the Transports and the Industrials both break below their January lows, the market is saying that it has already discounted the worst that can be seen ahead.

As I see it, the lows have been put in, but the upside remains open-ended

http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/MembersOnl...st?OpenDocument subscription required

It's 12:26 am and I am posting this. Doc, don't deleate the URL

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=83652

Great posts by TA.

Try and refute what he is saying.

MSFT + YHOO = CRAP

With Microsoft you get a tech company that hasn't ever invented anything worth while.

With Yahoo you get the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

My guess, the first thing MSFT would do after buying Yahoo would be to change all the
Yahoo email accounts to MSN accounts.

They they would wonder why everybody gave up their MSN email accounts.

bungster:

i agree we could very well see more up. but if this is a multi-year smackdown in the making, as many of us believe, those positive divergences on the $NASI mean that we'll only rally to lower highs.
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