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DrStool
Anyone think it's more than that?
Jetlag
Gloomberg running the insider buying story again...
shorty
insiders not buyin' GOOG

495 -20 ph34r.gif

lotta Ditech "wealth" evaporating laugh.gif
astral mike
I voted for "The beginning of a pullback to a higher low, followed by higher highs in an intermediate uptrend in a bear market."

However, it's been a while. i forget, how long does an "intermediate" uptrend last for?

shorty
full reamcoarse Debt ph34r.gif

It looks like a lot of ready cash is getting taken away from homoaners, at least in California.

Coupled with rising unemployment, this could pose a major headache for already strapped homoaners.

To head off more defaults, Countyslide sent out letters to 122,000 homoaners last week informing them that their home equity credit lines were shut down since their estimated home values had dropped below their loan amounts.

Right behind Countyslide was Chase Home Lending, which notified borrowers in Los Angeles, Imperial and Orange Counties that they could tap their credit lines for no more than 70% of the value of their house. Previously, the limit had been 90%.


cwd
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Feb 4 2008, 04:10 PM)
Gloomberg running the insider buying story again...
*




Insider buying on what? unsure.gif
cwd
QUOTE(shorty @ Feb 4 2008, 04:35 PM)
full reamcoarse Debt ph34r.gif

It looks like a lot of ready cash is getting taken away from homoaners, at least in California.

Coupled with rising unemployment, this could pose a major headache for already strapped homoaners.

To head off more defaults, Countyslide sent out letters to 122,000 homoaners last week informing them that their home equity credit lines were shut down since their estimated home values had dropped below their loan amounts.

Right behind Countyslide was Chase Home Lending, which notified borrowers in Los Angeles, Imperial and Orange Counties that they could tap their credit lines for no more than 70% of the value of their house. Previously, the limit had been 90%.

*




From the same article. ohmy.gif
The structure of these loans appears to spell trouble for Countrywide and other home lenders with big home equity loan books. According to an overlooked Moody's Investors Services note that came out last Wednesday, once a certain threshold of losses is achieved in a home equity loan securitization pool, the bond holder is paid off ahead of the lender.

What's worse is that it's difficult to see how large a lender's exposure is to home equity loans. Known as rapid amortization, this risk is treated as a contingent liability for Countrywide and other home equity loan lenders and is carried off balance sheet, until deterioration occurs and the lender goes on the hook for the loans. Countrywide is the nation's biggest home equity lender, with around 9% of the market.

In the short-term, this is just another blow for a investors in the financial sector. Longer-term however, it looks like a lot of ready cash is getting taken away from homeowners, at least in California. Coupled with rising unemployment, this could pose a major headache for already strapped homeowners.



I love the phrase, contingent liability.
The Tan Man has decided to quit giving money to deadbeats who won't pay him back. laugh.gif
DrStool
With all due respect, please call him by his real name.

Tangelo.
Grand Poopercycle
How 'bout....

'BozoMozo'. smile.gif
Bungster
QUOTE(Grand Poopercycle @ Feb 4 2008, 05:00 PM)
How 'bout....

'BozoMozo'. smile.gif
*



[attachmentid=95348]
Jetlag
QUOTE(cwd @ Feb 4 2008, 04:38 PM)
Insider buying on what? unsure.gif
*



Jonathan Moranland video:
http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=insid...0&submit=submit

Last time crapvision ran the financial insider buying story... well you know the rest of the story.
mdporter
QUOTE(shorty @ Feb 4 2008, 02:35 PM)
full reamcoarse Debt ph34r.gif

It looks like a lot of ready cash is getting taken away from homoaners, at least in California.

Coupled with rising unemployment, this could pose a major headache for already strapped homoaners.

To head off more defaults, Countyslide sent out letters to 122,000 homoaners last week informing them that their home equity credit lines were shut down since their estimated home values had dropped below their loan amounts.

Right behind Countyslide was Chase Home Lending, which notified borrowers in Los Angeles, Imperial and Orange Counties that they could tap their credit lines for no more than 70% of the value of their house. Previously, the limit had been 90%.

*




An article I read over the weekend mentioned that countryfried wrote off almost $700 million in mortgage/heloc money it couldn't collect. In just one quarter.
Mies van der Rump
Short term pullback of a short term rally that will roll over the next 4 weeks to nominal new lows.
mdporter
laugh.gif

“That’s what happened to homeowners Carmen Nuñez and her husband, Raymond Ordoñez. Almost four years ago, they bought a nice home in a nice neighborhood near 35th and Northern avenues in Phoenix. They kept the house as an investment property when they later moved to Laveen and in August rented it to a young, unmarried couple.”

“The tenants stopped paying the $1,200 rent in December, instead dodging Nuñez’s phone calls and giving lots of excuses.”

“On Wednesday, a team of constables descended on the home to evict the tenants, who weren’t home. The house was trashed: Half-eaten hamburgers and moldy bowls filled with cereal and milk sat on a table. Christmas decorations, dirty clothes and toys were scattered through the living room. The carpets were stained, the place smelled like rotten food and dirty diapers.”

“The tenants rolled up as the owners changed the locks, and the constables carried out the eviction paperwork. The tenant, Bobby Green, jumped out of a car, screamed, cursed and started to get physical with one constable. Within seconds, Green was Tasered, down on the driveway and in handcuffs.”

“‘I’m spending money I don’t have to pay the mortgage on that house, my house, to the courts for the eviction,’ said Nuñez, a real-estate agent. ‘It’s affected me really badly, and it’s just plain ridiculous.’”


Being a landlord is easy and fun!
mdporter
Duh!

“Across the country, task forces of prosecutors, FBI agents, securities investigators, class-action lawyers and others are mobilizing to figure out who broke the law during the high-flying days when lenders were handing out mortgage money like drunken sailors.”

“California, with its spiraling property values and history of loosey-goosey lending, is one of 10 ‘hot spots’ nationwide where mortgage fraud proliferates, the FBI said.”

...

“One Bay Area man who worked as an account executive at several subprime lenders said he witnessed mortgage brokers who blatantly falsified information on loan applications.”

“‘I had a broker open a drawer full of blank W-2s and pay stubs while he told me he could get me whatever I needed’ in terms of ‘proving’ borrower’s income, the man said.”


Source

mdporter
the HELOC freeze is going to slaughter thousands in California who were using their helocs to live on, and in the biggest no brainer circle jerk, using their helocs to pay their mortgages:

“Countrywide Financial announced Thursday that it has cut off 122,000 borrowers from pulling any more equity out of their homes. Wells Fargo, Washington Mutual and JPMorgan Chase released statements Friday saying they have also started halting equity lines because of tumbling home values.”

“‘It really wreaked havoc for me,’ said Dan Holbrook, a Fallbrook homeowner. At the end of the year, Holbrook paid off his equity line with a $50,000 payment. Four days later, Bank of America froze his equity line, he said.”

“‘I’m scrambling right now,’ he said. ‘It has created a tremendous amount of stress because that was money to live on for me.’”

“Holbrook, a real estate consultant, said most people view such loans as emergency-only money. That is how he viewed it until the housing market slowed, he said. ‘A lot of people figured these equity lines were safety nets,’ he said. ‘The problem is many of us are on a high-wire act right now. And you think the net is there, and you fall and it’s not.’”


source
tdultima
where's the option for v bottom to dow 36,000 alltime lifetime alltime bull market highs? laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

user posted image
DrStool
QUOTE(tdultima @ Feb 4 2008, 05:40 PM)
where's the option for v bottom to dow 36,000 alltime lifetime alltime bull market highs? laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif

user posted image
*




Sorry. that guy doesn't live here any more. tongue.gif
Peek Paper
QUOTE(Mies van der Rump @ Feb 4 2008, 05:20 PM)
Short term pullback of a short term rally that will roll over the next 4 weeks to nominal new lows.
*


I disagree with everything except the word "short" ...

The word gives me a warm fuzzy feeling all over ...

It all goes to crap from here, or close to here.
Bungster
I BELIEVE that corporate America is trying to buy a little favor in the coming mortgage trials...

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html

Some housing bubble news from Wall Street and Washington. Reuters, “Corporate America is pouring money into the U.S. presidential campaign at an unprecedented rate, with a torrent of donations coming from the businesses behind the subprime mortgage crisis. Facing a government crackdown over predatory lending and a troubled housing finance system, Wall Street and the real estate industry were among the top political givers in 2007, a campaign finance watchdog group said on Sunday.”



[attachmentid=95349]
bondtrader
QUOTE(Bungster @ Feb 4 2008, 06:03 PM)
[attachmentid=95348]
*




your litttle SWC queen has been a screamer wish I had some of that ...

tdultima
QUOTE(shorty @ Feb 4 2008, 01:29 PM)
insiders not buyin' GOOG

495 -20 ph34r.gif

lotta Ditech "wealth" evaporating laugh.gif
*


laugh.gif
user posted image
K Wave Rider
QUOTE(shorty @ Feb 4 2008, 03:35 PM)
full reamcoarse Debt ph34r.gif

It looks like a lot of ready cash is getting taken away from homoaners, at least in California.

Coupled with rising unemployment, this could pose a major headache for already strapped homoaners.

To head off more defaults, Countyslide sent out letters to 122,000 homoaners last week informing them that their home equity credit lines were shut down since their estimated home values had dropped below their loan amounts.

Right behind Countyslide was Chase Home Lending, which notified borrowers in Los Angeles, Imperial and Orange Counties that they could tap their credit lines for no more than 70% of the value of their house. Previously, the limit had been 90%.

*



The perfect storm......
derby
QUOTE(K Wave Rider @ Feb 4 2008, 04:20 PM)
The perfect storm......
*



We've just seen the unsettled weather and now the calm before the storm.
Brisbane Bear
the perfect storm is about to hit OZ.

Infact I predict a tsunami,hurricane,cyclone and earthquake to all hit at the same time... ph34r.gif ph34r.gif




Some people are there through bad luck or bad decisions. Marriages break up, people lose their jobs, injury or illness strikes. There are Australians who were conned into taking out loans they couldn't afford, mostly through an unscrupulous minority of mortgage brokers and non-bank lenders. And some borrowed more than they could afford.

But a lot took out big loans, unaware that the cost of servicing them would rise a lot faster than their incomes — so that keeping the house would take up more and more of their budget.

JPMorgan and Fujitsu Consulting warned that another two rate rises would push up to 300,000 households into "severe mortgage stress". Phil Naylor of the Mortgage Industry Association notes that few of these will end up defaulting on their mortgages: most will prune spending in other areas to keep their homes. But with each rate rise, the savings cut closer to the bone.



http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/tim-...2090319133.html
fxfox
Money is lying on the street. This time in GBP/USD

GBP/USD daily

put in order to short at 2.00. There we have 3 things: EMA 200 daily, 38 fibo and psycho number. If it goes thru that, you stop and reverse and go for the 62 fibo, cause then it will be the case that the test of the broken downtrendline from above was a launchpad, until then: Short the shit out of it at 2! I gonna play this big.

[attachmentid=95350]
Bungster
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 4 2008, 06:38 PM)
Money is lying on the street. This time in GBP/USD

GBP/USD daily

put in order to short at 2.00. There we have 3 things: EMA 200 daily, 38 fibo and psycho number. If it goes thru that, you stop and reverse and go for the 62 fibo, cause then it will be the case that the test of the broken downtrendline from above was a launchpad, until then: Short the shit out of it at 2! I gonna play this big.

[attachmentid=95350]
*



fxfox,

Per Doc's post this morning concerning "libel" I think you have just libeled "money".... rolleyes.gif Prepare to defend yourself in court.. laugh.gif laugh.gif

[attachmentid=95351]
Lemur
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 4 2008, 11:38 PM)
Money is lying on the street. This time in GBP/USD

GBP/USD daily

put in order to short at 2.00. There we have 3 things: EMA 200 daily, 38 fibo and psycho number. If it goes thru that, you stop and reverse and go for the 62 fibo, cause then it will be the case that the test of the broken downtrendline from above was a launchpad, until then: Short the shit out of it at 2! I gonna play this big.

[attachmentid=95350]
*




I am long EURGBP from 0.7446. My target is 0.79 Use this as a clue for the above. If GBP continues to weaken against the euro then it reasonable to expect weakness against the dollar also.
FauxCaster
QUOTE(mdporter @ Feb 4 2008, 05:22 PM)
laugh.gif

“That’s what happened to homeowners Carmen Nuñez and her husband, Raymond Ordoñez. Almost four years ago, they bought a nice home in a nice neighborhood near 35th and Northern avenues in Phoenix. They kept the house as an investment property when they later moved to Laveen and in August rented it to a young, unmarried couple.”

“The tenants stopped paying the $1,200 rent in December, instead dodging Nuñez’s phone calls and giving lots of excuses.”

“On Wednesday, a team of constables descended on the home to evict the tenants, who weren’t home. The house was trashed: Half-eaten hamburgers and moldy bowls filled with cereal and milk sat on a table. Christmas decorations, dirty clothes and toys were scattered through the living room. The carpets were stained, the place smelled like rotten food and dirty diapers.”

“The tenants rolled up as the owners changed the locks, and the constables carried out the eviction paperwork. The tenant, Bobby Green, jumped out of a car, screamed, cursed and started to get physical with one constable. Within seconds, Green was Tasered, down on the driveway and in handcuffs.”

“‘I’m spending money I don’t have to pay the mortgage on that house, my house, to the courts for the eviction,’ said Nuñez, a real-estate agent. ‘It’s affected me really badly, and it’s just plain ridiculous.’”


Being a landlord is easy and fun!
*



Dumbass renter should have bought a home with 50K cash back at closing and a teaser rate. Pay back the teaser on time for 12 months, then stop paying and live rent-free for 6-9 months. Then take off with the 40K.
fxfox
QUOTE(Lemur @ Feb 4 2008, 07:03 PM)
I am long EURGBP from 0.7446. My target is 0.79 Use this as a clue for the above. If GBP continues to weaken against the euro then it reasonable to expect weakness against the dollar also.
*



yep , correct. I also agree with you on the target for EUR/GBP, upper channel line should be seen.

EUR/GBP weekly

[attachmentid=95352]
bondtrader
gold going to dump and oil should come down to 70'ish by march ! of course epic buying opp's .. IMO.

bondtrader
anyone double there money here? probably a good short now.
IMO
GregFokker
QUOTE(bondtrader @ Feb 4 2008, 07:56 PM)
gold going to dump and oil should come down to 70'ish by march ! of course epic buying opp's .. IMO.
*


Authoritative as your bloviations might seem to you, it would be helpful to know the rationale behind these statements, if indeed you have one. Unless they're just yahoo-message-boardisms... just like your unanswered pronouncement about 70 dollar oil yesterday.
DrStool
Fokker- He does it for the attention. Best to just ignore it. wink.gif
bondtrader
GregF... here is my chart.

what do you think.

Brisbane Bear
the retailers will be destroyed.

Especially big ticket retailers.

Here in OZ we have sooooo many retailers selling the same stuff.

Talk about over capacity.

Mishs wife works (or did work) for a furniture retailer.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Jimi
QUOTE(bondtrader @ Feb 4 2008, 07:56 PM)
gold going to dump and oil should come down to 70'ish by march ! of course epic buying opp's .. IMO.
*


Frank Barbara made a similar claim on the 1st hour of FSN this past weekend. His target for the correction was as low as 675, before resumption of the primary bull.

If we get down that low, I will buy a lot of physical.
K Wave Rider
Euro getting the rolling look to it after the bear flag...is tonight the night she lets go?
K Wave Rider
QUOTE(Jimi @ Feb 4 2008, 08:26 PM)
Frank Barbara made a similar claim on the 1st hour of FSN this past weekend. His target for the correction was as low as 675, before resumption of the primary bull.

If we get down that low, I will buy a lot of physical.
*



IF Gold rolls over here, and she is a bit extended, the weekly tunnel area would fit nicely with that 675 call.....
GregFokker
QUOTE(bondtrader @ Feb 4 2008, 08:50 PM)
GregF... here is my chart.

what do you think.
*


Looks like no-man's land between 85 and 92.5. Weekly chart oscillators will determine the bias as to which. Below 85, could be a neckline break.
Brisbane Bear
here is a sign of the times in OZ.

Firstly Mitsubishi is likely to close its car plant in OZ and move it to Russia or China.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/mit...2090323381.html


Second the Formula One motor race is also likely to go to Russia or India.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/gp-...2090377723.html

now that eveyone is up to their eyeballs in debt on way over priced real estate,overseas interests will pull the rug on all types of business and events.

Sayonara suckers.. ph34r.gif ph34r.gif
cwd
We must be near some kind of top. Where do everyone go? unsure.gif
DrStool
On the east coast they're in the bathroom, and on the west coast they're on the way to dinner.
DrStool
laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

G' night!
shorty
trading below book value now, lotta shorts
Brisbane Bear
Interest rates just rose another 1/4 point in OZ.

Now stand at 7%.

Highest level in 11 years.

Folks with the big mortgages are probably vomiting blood.
Jorma
I vote

The end of the world as we know it.

I can actually hear the bell. Two Midwest bankruptcies today. Wickes Furniture and a Chrysler supplier Plastec. Chrysler is shutting down 4 plants, temporarily. Not a big deal in and of themselves, but... I wonder if Chrysler/Cerbeus is going to make it.

These bankruptcies are going to be coming fast and furious now. They are going to batter all the false confidence.

That means it's time to go full margin long probably. Follow the charts.

Jimi
QUOTE(Jorma @ Feb 4 2008, 10:40 PM)
I vote

The end of the world as we know it. 

I can actually hear the bell.  Two Midwest bankruptcies today. Wickes Furniture and a Chrysler supplier Plastec. Chrysler is shutting down 4 plants, temporarily. Not a big deal in and of themselves, but...  I  wonder if Chrysler/Cerbeus is going to make it.

These bankruptcies are going to be coming fast and furious now.  They are going to batter all the false confidence.

That means it's time to go full margin long probably. Follow the charts.
*


I listened to a podcast from bloomberg recently and there was a guy on their who talked about a screen he'd run for companies with substantial short term debt coming due. He was suggesting these be avoided.

Made sense to me.
beardrech
QUOTE(Grand Poopercycle @ Feb 4 2008, 05:00 PM)
How 'bout....

'BozoMozo'. smile.gif
*



How about

Vazelino "zero" Tranchelino, schlockmeister par excelllence...better know as Tangeline the love machine....

beardrech ph34r.gif ph34r.gif
bondtrader
QUOTE(GregFokker @ Feb 4 2008, 10:37 PM)
Looks like no-man's land between 85 and 92.5.  Weekly chart oscillators will determine the bias as to which.  Below 85, could be a neckline break.
*




look at 77.5 as first support area ?
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