I probably should ask the same questions I asked yesterday. What say you?

Attention Fed: Another 1/2 point rate cut is urgently needed. Cramer will call you tonight!

Doc delete my duplicate topic for today

Picked up a few SPYder calls for jollies.

Couldn't help myself. It was on sale, 85% markdown.



Poor saps.

I didn't have any skin in the game .....but it was still good for me...

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I picked up a little tan range. The canadian chart looks like it should go.

likely place for bounce manana...we get thru this level and the Jan lows come into play....

Ribbon-man,

Great trading. It's a pleasure watching you in action.

It's rumored that Tangelo Mozillo is in the running to be the new CEO of Tan Range.

Ms. SPX was nasty today! Down 3.2% Yowza...

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Who is Ribbon Man?

Woo-hoo! Stoolie Jeopardy!

"This Stoolie posts colorful charts of 'spaghetti' lines rolling over in unison from his lake house in Austin, when he's not bush-whacking throuhg the jungles of Costa Rica."

Hahaha...i just a story that the State of Massachusetts pension fund just canned Goldman Sachs.

Gee, wonder if they got sick of buying dreck from GS while it's getting shorted on the other side for GS. (still can't beleive there isn't SOME kind of fiduciary duty there...chinese wall or not).

Got it. Thanks.

Doc,

Please tell me the "Patriots" victory celebration was deliberately put in to annoy me.

Just 'cuz I bought some calls on another one of your crash window warnings.

Spiteful bastard.

If you guys see videos out there that kinda fit with the flow of the conversation, send or post the link and I can embed it. Nice diversion from time to time.

Of course, it helps if their kinda funny.

Agreed. I think you deserve a day off.

I know markets are supposed to look out over the abyss and most of the bad news 'should' be factored into current prices,but I don't know whether they have binoculars powerful enough to see that far.

Maybe if they used the Hubble telescope they may be able to see how bad things really are.

I don't think it has even started yet.

Just wait until people start losing jobs enmasse.

Just wait until the frivilious shops start closing in huge numbers.

Then the not so frivilous shops start closing in numbers.

The whole vicious cycle has bearly started.

I think Tice has a target of about 6000 on the DOW.

Sounds about right.

What fiduciary duty ? As I understand it the Robert Rubin was the first to start gaming his client's positions. If you get cheated once it is the cheater's fault, but if you keep getting cheated by the same guy it is your fault.

YM could make big decision in next day or 2

If Tice turns bullish when we hit 6000, I'm buying SPX puts hand-over-fist.

Then again, I've been waiting for Britney Spear's Ph.D. dissertation on quantum physics for a while also.

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to an 11-year high, saying a ``significant slowing in demand'' is needed to cool the fastest inflation since 1991.

Governor Glenn Stevens and his board increased the overnight cash rate target to 7 percent in Sydney today, as forecast by all 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Stevens said annual inflation, which has overshot the bank's target, may accelerate further before moderating in 2009.

source

True, true...as Rubin said this weekend while speaking [para]: Wall Street holds NO fault for any of this. If the electorate was more educated, this wouldn't happen.

Man, the dude has freon running through those veins!

Seeing as it's Superdupermostfabulucious Tuesday, shouldn't it be put to a vote?

I wonder how they are going to finese this?

This bears repeating: The new modeled losses could "call into question the appropriateness of 'AAA' ratings for those affected companies, regardless of their ultimate capital levels." Regardless of capital levels. That really says it all

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

I love it. We are giving the investing public what they want. Where do we get such men.

I find it surprising that this news is so surprising.

What did they think would happen to the 'services' sector??

U.S. Economy: Service Industries Unexpectedly Shrank

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in January at the fastest pace since the 2001 recession as the housing slump deepened and consumer spending cooled.

``This is a stunning fall,'' said Michael Moran , chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York. ``If accurate, it's dire news on the economy.''

here got that bit right

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...KS3Q&refer=home

TE,

BHP makes its bid for RIO official.



BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company, has made a formal bid for Rio Tinto.

The mining company offered 3.4 of its own shares for each Rio share, a 45% premium on Rio's price.

Earlier, BHP said the outlook for commodity prices remains strong after delivering a dip in half year profit.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/bhp-bi...2233876322.html

which ones ?

I am not overly superstitious,but the year has started off kinda 'ratshit' ..



Year of Rat May Portend Losses in Asian Stocks, Astrologers Say

By Chen Shiyin

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese astrologer Tony Tan, a former broker at DBS Securities, made money for his clients in 2007 by telling them Asian equity markets would turn in ``peak performances'' in the Year of the Pig. He's predicting losses in the Year of the Rat, which starts this week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...nAlA&refer=home

That's gonna put a kink in the Dow/Gold ratio so many bugs are counting on. We won't need Gold at $2K for Dow 6000 to put the ratio back to the norm.

Would love to see an emergency rate cut of 5 basis points tomorrow morning.

She's moved on to the unification of the field theories......

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It couldn't happen to nicer guys.

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Less than a year after Apollo Management LP paid $6.6 billion for real estate broker Realogy Corp., bond prices show the deal may be worthless.

Debt used to finance the April purchase trades at 61 cents on the dollar, and derivatives tied to the securities indicate an 83 percent chance that Parsippany, New Jersey-based Realogy will default. Apollo, the private-equity firm run by Leon Black, put up about $2 billion of cash to buy the owner of Coldwell Banker and Century 21, borrowing the rest.

The bonds show Apollo's equity in Realogy ``has no value right now,'' said Sabur Moini, a money manager in Los Angeles at Payden & Ragel, which oversees $50 billion in fixed-income securities. ``If bonds are trading in the 50s or 60s, the market is saying that these guys are headed toward bankruptcy.''

Falling bond prices are jeopardizing private-equity returns after easy access to cheap debt fueled a record $1.4 trillion of leveraged buyouts in 2006 and 2007. New York-based Morgan Stanley estimates buyout funds raised in 2003 have returned an average of 42 percent, and now Apollo, Bain Capital LLC, Cerberus Capital Management LP and their competitors may face losses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aydkFQUBGYyw

It is finally here.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Fed's Lacker: Commercial Construction to see "Dramatic Change"

From Jeffrey M. Lacker,President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond: The Economic Outlook for 2008

A particularly dramatic change is likely to occur in commercial construction, which is a key segment of business investment. Construction spending for new stores and offices grew by a healthy 10 percent after inflation last year, but we have heard reports from our District contacts of a significant softening of conditions lately, with major projects being deferred or cancelled outright. In addition, vacancy rates for retail space have increased over the last year, which should lead to less construction going forward. The most recent investment data we have are for December, and those reports indicate continued growth in construction activity and new orders for business equipment.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/02...ruction-to.html

That is the most widely believed and heavily promoted of the bogus ideas to come out of Wall Street's ass. Totally bogus. The market simply measures how much cash traders, Wall Street traders in particular, have in their wallets.

Right now they are flat broke and hemorrhaging cash day in and day out. The economy will collapse as a residual of that fact. That will reinforce the illusion that the market is forward looking.

It's really amazing when you realize that almost all of the conventional wisdom from Wall Street is just dead flat wrong. That epiphany will free you from the chains of those illusions and allow you to see things as they really are.

The Crapvision videoclips show Cramer telling Erin Burnedhead today that the Fed will execute another emergency intrameeting cut.

"The economy will collapse ..."
what are you guessing unemployment rate will be at the "bottom" of that collapse?

Um... February calls.

it is amazing when they actually put a number to something.

Here in OZ,they say that 300000 people are likely to lose their homes this year.

Now everytime you open a paper or turn on the TV or Radio,they quote that number.

What amazes me is that people who are desperate to buy a house,dont have the foresight to wait until people actually start losing their homes before they buy.

Why buy today if you can buy tomorrow for a much cheaper price.

People just aren't used to deflation..

anyone interested in buying some lotto tickets.. MOVIQ got the ok from bankrupt court for an ok, and plan to come out of bankruptcy in 2q 08. last time i did this i bought 2500 shares of Healthsouth at .13 a share. rode it to 1.50. had family memebers that rode it to the $5 area. 1 for 3 and now its trading near 20. but movies are all being rented online and netflix so i dont see to much room for comeback.




Movie Gallery Expects To Emerge From Chapter 11 Early In 2Q08
Last update: 2/5/2008 5:40:36 PM
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
February 05, 2008 17:41 ET (22:41 GMT)



Movie Gallery: Disclosure Statement Gets Bankruptcy Court OK
Last update: 2/5/2008 5:48:28 PM
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Movie Gallery Inc. said the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Richmond approved the company's disclosure statement filed in connection with its proposed restructuring plan.
The Dothan, Ala., video rental company said it will begin soliciting shareholder votes on the plan.
Movie Gallery, which filed for bankruptcy protection in October, expects to emerge from Chapter 11 early in the second quarter.
-Nicholas Hatcher; 201-938-5400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 05, 2008 17:48 ET (22:48 GMT

Of course, there is a reason for this, right?

Fartaroma at the bottom.[attachmentid=95399]

I have no clue. I don't even know what it is right now. I just don't follow the economic data. Russ Winter might be willing to venture an opinion because he has a pretty good handle on economic data and trends.

But does it matter? It does if you are one of the unemployed or underemployed. I think all of us still in the work world would be crazy not to be worried about it from our own personal perspective.

I have been worrying about that for sometime - especially now when my friends and I are supposed to start a new online business - one of them is supposed get $3 million from venture investors but who knows whether it happens.

I lived in Poland when unemployment rate was close to 20% - and around 1/4 of those without a job was working in underground economy - I mean, officially not working.
It was not that BAD if you had a decent job but there was a huge downward pressure on wages - sometime there was just small difference between your pay and unemployment benefits (if you still were getting them).

Some professionals had no problem finding jobs others were unemployed - depending on industry.
20% of unemployment still meant that 50%+ were doing OK.

Now it is around 10% and Poland is booming except for some reason last year house prices went down and one developer filed for bankruptcy - but I am readying that next year prices will go up again. yeah, Poland has its spin masters too.

multple readings of the J6P indicator at work, based on unsolicited commentary on the stalk mahkit: your typical beyond-college-educated imbestor still has faith in the mahkit, CNBS, and lordee lordee, jeem crammer.

one of these J6Ps came up to me last sunday night/monday morning (at frakkin' 02:30! that was soooo subprime.), when i still had plenty of work left to do. you could see the CNBS religion in his eyes, and he was just itching to talk about "that crazy stock market" and how nicely his folio partly recovered over the preceding week.

i tried quite gruffly to indicate i was busy, but he yakked tirelessly about how it's important to be nearly fully invested at all times, how he averaged down, how crammer generally makes good calls and is doing it for the little guy, how he watches CNBS "all the time," etc.

to get him off my back, i'd throw a few bearish bones his way, but the dude got even further energized and spouted even more "conventional" imbesting wisdom.

lots of skiiers riding the slopes of hope. it'll take many quarters of financial beatings to fix their 2003-2007 pavlovian conditioning.

This may be the understatement of the year.

``Any proactive action on Fitch's part which could result in substantial downgrades may be negative for credit markets,'' said Puneet Sharma, head of investment-grade credit research at Barclays Capital in London
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...aH8k&refer=home

I wonder how many of these people are serial bubble victims. From the tech bubble to housing bubble to now the deux replay of the stock bubble?

J3P, what kind of work requires you to be at the office with co-workers at 2:30 AM? Are you making the next morning's donuts?

Man's gotta be careful with that "slope of hope" thang......

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