Wild ride today.

What's it all about, Alfie?

Is it just for the moment we live?

What's it all about when you sort it out, Alfie?

Are we meant to take more than we give

Or are we meant to be kind?

And if only fools are kind, Alfie,

Then I guess it's wise to be cruel.

And if life belongs only to the strong, Alfie,

What will you lend on an old golden rule?

Sooner or later the shorts will be right.

Or dead, whichever comes first.

Ahem, almost 30 mins now without any post. Are you stoolies shcoked and awed or what?

No need too. We are in a bear market.

the bulls can probably temporarily save this with 1 or 2 more up days

still think this IT up phase is weak and it's gonna get fugly when it cracks

Probably in that order., dead then right.

Toll Brothers

weekly voodoo chart

[attachmentid=95486]

Interesting.

you have to be fearless, not scared shitless.

These builders will all go to levels where they were before the bubble began. In most cases this means they will go to their 1999 oe 2000 lows. TOL will go to 4 for example.

on the other hand:

TOL broke its downtrend and backtested it this week. So far sucessfull. But that is only on lin chart, on log chart it hasnt broken the downtrend.

Ain't it the truth! I just figure I need to incorporate the dark side more to be one of the survivors.

BZH got slammed down hard right before the bell. I was more often market meat before I began studying forensics here at the stool. Go Stoolies! Super toiletbowl champs! We're No. 1!

ah ha, i just see that Squeezer Homie is the exception: It already went BELOW its 1999 low. Short the others, not that one.

Who would have predicted that within the farraginous mess of mutually reinforcing string theoretial conduits of SM bullshit lurked the evil eye affectionaly known as Russel's paradox?????


Moody's was quoted (sit down please,so as not to break your ass) as suggesting we downgrade "itself", and suggested to its followers that they not take its ratings too seriously, or rather, do not take it as the sole source for ratings...

This is tantamount to saying:"Believe me;What I say i is a lie !"

Which self humiliating assertion leads the listners to make the inference:

Well if you are lying, then you are telling me the truth--and if telling me the truth ,then you are lying which patently contradicts the assertion that you're lying

If you continue to swing either way, the truth & lie self-contradiction rotates as if a gerbil in a cage...

I really believe this is the biggest scam of ALL: Moody's SAYING --YOU SHOULD TRUST ME EVEN THOUGH iVE BEEN SELLING you BULLSHIT RATINGS FOR THE PAST 20 YEARS.......

This paradox goes under many names and is a few thousand years old but:Liars P.;Cretan barber,but Bertrand Russel eventually became the eponymous figure....


beardrech This isn't your wife underneath the bedsheet;Do you believe me or your lying eyes

.

[attachmentid=95489]

That's a nice round bottom!

pigman go long secret code?

BZH is on the Threshold Security List. This means that it is being shorted by the big boyz.

thats right! I hope that the market doesnt take it as a role model!

I'm shocked, SHOCKED! to find corruption on Fraud Street.

[attachmentid=95491]

Tanks, Howl. I'm playing it for opex and a short squeeze. If it doesn't work, I'll take a lump and move on.

I'd role that model.

Now, just imagine if this belongs to a dude.

there are things in life i just dont wanna think about

these problems aren't going away anytime soon...

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Joe Ripplinger took out a $184,000 mortgage in 2006 and makes his payments every month.

Now he owes $192,000.

The 66-year-old Minneapolis house painter has a payment- option adjustable-rate mortgage. It allows him to write a check for $565 a month even though he owes $1,300. The difference is added to the mortgage, and when his total debt reaches $212,000, or after five years have passed, he said his monthly minimum could jump to about $2,800, which he can't afford.

``We're barely making it right now,'' Ripplinger said.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...fBfI&refer=home

If anyone is looking for something to read this evening, check out Calderon's article:

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/cutting/?p=149

Great work - will get your blood pressure up for sure.

Wow...it wasn't even an *ssblast day and it's dead here! FYI, i am at a conference in Orlando with 1200 people...salaries fairly evenly distributed from 70-200ish. As i am generally pretty anti-social, I have been madly canvassing since it involves the least amount of pain as opposed to interacting with people daily...lol.

The consensus from the Field to the SVP's, without fail, is that this is just a minor blip. No recognition that '07 gains are gone: "this happens every couple of years...i buy and hold so i'm not worried"; no CLUE what subprime really means to the economy or even what is going on in the general economy: "i heard that's just about taken care of now". The myopia is astounding. When you think about sheeple or the masses, i always kind of said it tongue in cheek but the ignorance is palpable when you speak to "the man on the Street".

I approached our ex-CFO (he took a new position) and asked his off the record take on the seizing of the credit markets and what he is seeing moving forward...and specifically asked for his REAL OPINION. It was hillarious, he shifted his eyes left and right and said in a half whisper: "catch up with me tomorrow, not pretty".

I find it interesting that bucky was up strong twice in the last few days. The method of the the increase was interesting as well, in that it was running relatively flat, jumped over a very few hours, and then stayed relatively flat at the new level.

Despite that, gold was moving higher in what would normally be an illogical way.


Now a question,

If some large amount of foreign funds were being crossed, then converted to doolers, in an effort to either provide liquidity or save a bonk, etc.

Would it make the crossing in such a way that we would see it reflected in dooler strength?

And what about an offseting source currency weakness?

TIA

Perhaps there is a simple explanation.
Gold has broken out in all currencies. Now that gold is clearly in a bull market in all currencies, what do good traders do in a bull? Buy the dip. So when gold dips in a certain currency, dip buyers (who trade in that currency) appear, putting additional pressure on physical demand which will ultimately swamp short paper holders.

Bank of America lunatic banksters:

"The major credit-card lender in mid-January sent letters notifying some responsible cardholders that it would more than double their rates to as high as 28%, without giving an explanation for the increase ..."

http://www.businessweek.com/print/bwdaily/...8026_105146.htm

What a wild couple of days. Discrepancies between the major indices and other suctors like finaglers have had me a bit confused. Tough to read the cycle structure of this one. Fooled me good... but the next move will tell a lot.

THE $140 Billion stimulous package - far too small to matter - and an irrelevant "Framing" device anyway.

All defecits are stimulus packages

The US government actually runs a $400 billion stimulous package (defecit) every year.

Its a joke. Just window dressing

Which is actually a positive.

Because if the US government really tried to do something about it.

US Bonds would fall faster than the value of a CDO.

I dont thing Annally Mortgage - Creamers darling - will look good when all that Mac and Mae paper goes down the gurgler.

Remember those in power have their bad policies implemented because they "frame" the debates so that all contrary arguments and weight of evidence is excluded from the debate. Thats how bush was so easily able to invade iraq.

Like assistance for homeowners. All evidence that they gamed the system and used their houses as piggy banks to fund their lifestyles is to be vigourously excluded from the debate. Instead they are to be painted as innocent victims of mortgage sharks.


The frame has to be broken to see the truth.

It could be a good while before it gets there.

Is that a LT bottom or an IT bottom?

Mish on the $US.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

A couple of months ago most of them were, but the' is it the bottom' rally knocked a lot of the weak shorts out [like me] for a little while but I am getting back in.

It is verboten in any setting where corporate professionals meet to say anything negative about the 'markets' or the nature of the markets. While I don't doubt many are blithely unconcerned there is probably a sizable minority who are worried but they will not express it to strangers, or anyone, in a professional setting. Thus your exercise is futile. Go out and get drunk with some and perhaps then something different will come out.

Talk to a any group of hourly workers who for the most part know zero about 'markets' and they will almost universally say things are screwed up and heading south. What it is they can't say beyond the most hackneyed and cartoonish diatribes against the usual list of suspects. The suspects in question depending upon Joes particular political persuasion.

While the company men (a wonderful 50's pejorative which has been banished from the language) might be more wrong, their prospects for the future is still brighter than for the Joe's. Sure many of them might fall by the wayside but with that proper party line attitudes of faith in and deference to elites they have a winning advantage going forward.

We must be near some sort of top. The DOW goes up 50 points after three big down days and there is nobody here.

We used to call that rent. I wonder if that was some of the Tan Man's paper?

[quote=Mies van der Rump,Feb 7 2008, 08:45 PM]
Wow...it wasn't even an *ssblast day and it's dead here! FYI, i am at a conference in Orlando with 1200 people...salaries fairly evenly distributed from 70-200ish. As i am generally pretty anti-social, I have been madly canvassing since it involves the least amount of pain as opposed to interacting with people daily...lol.

The consensus from the Field to the SVP's, without fail, is that this is just a minor blip. No recognition that '07 gains are gone: "this happens every couple of years...i buy and hold so i'm not worried"; no CLUE what subprime really means to the economy or even what is going on in the general economy: "i heard that's just about taken care of now". The myopia is astounding. When you think about sheeple or the masses, i always kind of said it tongue in cheek but the ignorance is palpable when you speak to "the man on the Street".

I approached our ex-CFO (he took a new position) and asked his off the record take on the seizing of the credit markets and what he is seeing moving forward...and specifically asked for his REAL OPINION. It was hillarious, he shifted his eyes left and right and said in a half whisper: "catch up with me tomorrow, not pretty".


Mies, are you in the financial serves industry? Thanks

I see everyone like Beazer Homes. You could get up to $40,000 in free extra's if you buy one between Feb. 8-10. http://www.beazer.com/

As an old guy said on CNBS today as he was disputing the bottom is in shills. Nobody runs faster than a scared Bankster.

<<Mies, are you in the financial serves industry?>>

Haha...no, i am sure i would have been stoned to death as a heretic if i was found out asking those kinds of subversive questions at a gathering like that, lol.

Good point Jorma. Many of the people i asked were persons i am professionally quite close with, so their blase attitudes surprised me.

I firmly beleive that the entire situation is so far beyond the comprehension of the average American that they would just as soon not deal with it, at the risk of almost all they have, than to have to think and research and awaken from slumber. People just do NOT want to hear ANYTHING pessimistic. Devestation going on on so many fronts, and i heard more convesations about Idol and the upcoming Sex and The City movie than about anything else.

Is that something like making a loud bodily noise?

I live in a downscale town in the DFW area better known as Jonestown, because our moran politicans gave everything to the Cowboys.
I see people hurting all the time.
I just took some soup over to a neighbor widow who went to work as a sales girl today even though she has the flu. She works at a new COLD Water Creek store in a new shopping center next to an old shopping mall for I would guess about $10/hr and no benies.
The stock looks like the company is about to go BK.

GRUESOME SIGN OF THE TIMES...


House-hunters discover owner's body hanging

British house hunters examining a prospective property found an unwelcome surprise in the main bedroom - the owner's body hanging from a belt in a walk-in wardrobe.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/02/08/1202234104165.html

Look, the situation is severely depressing enough.

Can we avoid gruesome, if at all possible?

Interesting take from Mish. I wrote my article about $ bottoming yesterday. It was from a different angle:

http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2008/02/...-on-the-dollar/

A new podcast has been posted at http://radiofreewallstreet.fm. Also the February 3 podcast with Russ which was temporarily lost has been found and reposted.

A co-worker was commenting today he had to go to the bank. He was asked why. He said he's going to stand in line for the same reason every one else is.

To refinance

Today all junk bonds are slightly down across the board. ABX and CDX indices slightly down, iTraxx is on the run, CMBX is collapsing!

Who is actually 'severly' depressed.



Apart from the poor saps caught up in the housing collapse in the US,most everyone else is still living in some sort of fantasy land.

I suspect most people have probably stopped partying,but most are still blissfully unaware of how serious the problems are.

This is the 'big one' inho.

Literally millions of folks will be financially destroyed,thousands will kill themselves.

It is a very bleak picture.