Wild. qqqq up .49 and dow down 65.

That makes sense huh?

Fed Report now up in WSE Pro.

positive day fer GG

*DJ Mastercard CEO Selander Sells $5.5M In Company Stock >MA

we got a half assed ST bottom on NDX i think

so is this bullish or bearish?

i can't tell

it's bullshit.

Somebody say something about a pool party?

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Supply and Demand seem pretty well matched here....What does that mean? Are we rangebound??

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thats good i still have my QQQQ calls.... they need a little Ump'

PEIX has not been so nice ....

No one sleeping anymore !

lol

To me the supply looks endless and the demand is coming from the players gaming the next assblast out of the futures pits. A range bound scenario yes, but one with a downward bias.

Until the next shoe drops...so to speak...

BSC hit 80.02 today. I'm out. I sold my 7 March 95 puts for 16. There may be more down side, but I learned my lessons from the last few years. ( I bought at 9).

Have a nice weak-end folks

I think we'll be stuck in a turding range 11,500 to 13,500 until Nov election.

Then we'll break out to the downside between Nov and the mid-Jan coronation of Hillary on fears she'll take down Big Earl and sit on him hard.

Should help PEIX and other green companies.

Dow target 10,000 Jan '09, that should be the bottom in nominal prices, sticksaved by inflation.

If they'd just bring back Volcker and jack short-term rates to 20.00% whre they should be, then we could move down below 7,000 easily, possibly to 4,000. But the baSSturds won't do it, so with short-term rates so low I can't see how we'll be able to stay below 10,000 fer long.

this is the biggest bust in history.How the hell do these guys even get to this stage of building 233 houses with no money??

This is where I live.

The beautiful Sunshine Coast in Queensland.

It is amazing how the the market works.

It is a real paradox.

We are supposedly booming,yet people are really struggling.

My sons mate who works in the building industry has had one weeks work in the past 7 weeks.He is trying to sell his car to make ends meet.

It has literally not stopped raining for 7 weeks in QLD.

Most everyone has had a shocking tourist season.

Builders have obviously had a terrible few months.

Fury builds over Real Property Constructions' collapse

AN angry customer repeatedly drove her car into the front office of a construction company in the wake of Queensland's biggest building industry collapse yesterday


http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...370-952,00.html

The real craSSh of '08 will be houses, not stocks.

Holding an underwater stock position don't cost nuthin'.

Holding underwater houses will eat you alive with interest and other monthly negative $caSShflow.

Failed housing gamblers are being destroyed by their foolish house purchases. Panic liquidation is in store for those who can't legally run away from their mrotgouges and stiff their creditors. They'll get the stiffy instead.

Hard Times in Hamptons’ Land of Plenty
Foreclosures were up sharply here last year
By Jennifer Landes
(Feb. 7, 2008)

People are calling me who are not only behind two or three months but a whole year or year and a half,” Ann Nowak, a Water Mill lawyer with a specialty practice in bankruptcy, said on Monday. “Foreclosures are not happening as quickly. . . . It appears the banks don’t want the houses back, maybe because they don’t want to have to unload them.”

“I feel awful. I spend 20 minutes with them on a consultation and I can’t help them. It’s in my interest to help them out, but they can’t afford to do it. I have to tell them there’s no hope. Sadly, I think there will be a lot more foreclosures.”

ya can't go wrong buyin' them 3BR 1B bread'N'butter starters!

House fer Sale: 5 Bucks

how 'bout investin' in a nice income property?

House fer Sale: $nuthin'

HOUSE PRICES AT $5 FAR TO HIGH



Shorty

When you discount the negative cash stream of property taxes to a net present value, and the fact that you will never find a tennant to occupy the house it should be valued at about MINUS $50,000 to sell

Obviously $5 is way too much to pay.

Mastercard Topping Out



Says it all

better of playing visa for the pop.

ECB A Dumping Ground for Toxic Financial Waste

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2270

Ratio chart between financials and $SPX. Despite all this short covering the downtrend held. Usually stock market bottoms at least half a year (could be more, I don't have exact data) after the financials start outperforming the rest of the market.

I.e. we are at least half a year from the bottom, or could be much more, of course. Bear market in full force.

This negative-amortization lender in CA just closed below its 50 DMA. The break-out through was fake, the 50 DMA did not cross through 59 and 70 DMA.

I'm not a good chartist - tell me - great short, right? I already made about $15k on puts on DSL last year and eager to make more.

God, I hope it's cultural. Two German banks just got more public capital reinvested into them. It's likely Soc Gen may get French taxpayer money. And we already know about Northern Rock.

I've made a post about this chart today: http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2008/02/08/nostalgia/

What do you think?

I just loved how Trashit tries to shift the blame by saying, "Hey, EVERYBODY's doing it!"

Well, EVERYBODY isn't doing it. Certainly not to the extent they are.

But what choice did they have. I guess, Collapse now, or Collapse later.

They chose the long drawn out route ala Japan.

Remember when everyone was lecturing Japan back in the 90s that they just HAD TO let the bankrupt institutions go under.

Well now the foo is on the other shiut. How's it feel?

Kind of like the IMF's apartheid policy towards G-7 and everybody else.

Do you know what role Euro-dollars play in all this? All that subprime crap must be denominated in USD.

As for the "different" response, the exchange rate at such a super critical low threshhold may have a hand in forcing a different response from the Fed vs. ECB. If the dollar were at 1999 levels, maybe the roles would be reversed.

I really don't know how this is all going to play out. I can see how the wheels have been set in motion on the housing bubble implosion. That said, politicians do panic and do stupid things under those circumstances .....

I don't think anyone can rule out a public U.S. bailout of the banks.

roxy,

I cannot invest in LT Treasuries under these circumstances. I had been calling for lower LT rates from a year ago in a vociferous disagreement with Lee. I ended up dumping my LT Treasury holdings even before the precipitous drop in LT rates because I felt then the same way I do now.

LT rates are too low to justify me tying my money with Uncle Sam for ten or thirty years. I don't know how those idiots are going to act and they have too many unfunded liabilities to take the risk. Furthermore, I don't want to tie up my money in an asset class that is ridiculously manipulated via price controls from FCBs, nor do I want to go in just because everyone is stampeding like scared animals due to some false perception of safety.

That's just me though.

Now I know who they'd like to target with all that stimulus - Walmart

Wal-Mart's distress signal
http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/07/news/econo...sion=2008020811

because the Wal-Mart indicator is flashing red and blaring a siren
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/02/09/thr...-for-investors/

and can you believe that Wal-Mart is world's biggest private employer

What does it show?

I'm sure its just around the corner: house for next to nuthin'.

Purchased by municipalities from distressed banksters, re-sold to homeless J6P clanspeople with the agreement that, going forward, all taxes will be paid or buyer will face eviction.

Municipalities, seeing a declining tax base due to ratcheting down of assessments, will begin to tax on sqft by inverse redlining: the better the neighborhood, the higher the millage rate.

I still like the idea (maybe it was mine, i forgot my Aricept today) that J6P will get "rescued" by borrowing from his future Social Security benefit stream.

Rule it out? It's inevitable ...

It's called inflation ... it comes after the "D" word.

It's all about the Bankers. The strong ones will eat the weak ones, and become even stronger.

The process will be very prolonged this time around, however. Nobody knows who holds the right cards, or who has the jokers.

Some of the people working there aren't even on the payroll!

http://www.komotv.com/news/local/15157611.html

"police survey says panhandlers outside Wal-Mart in Coos Bay can make $300 a day. Inside, it takes a clerk a week to make that much."

Agree, good idea. I was riding TLT all the way from July top. I remember, back in July, I was posting in my blog buy-buy-buy, when almost everybody was screaming sell. I have significant savings on my 401k and treasuries is pretty much the only option I consider investing there, so I _have_ to game treasuries, up and down. Right now my holding is light.

I think it shows margin calls and lack of liquidity in certain hedge funds. The CMBX is credit-default swap index, and it is very Dover Sole.

If I had few billions to run the distressed fund, I would dong CMBX. It's not the bottom, but they will go up big time.

I ran into my "well connected" cousin yesterday, the one who is best friends with one of the founders of one of the most famous homebuilders. Yeah that one. Anyway, he tells me that this particular homebuilder is in fantastic shape financially, with loads of cash on the balance sheet. Much stronger than most of the other builders. I don't know if it's true or not. I was wondering if one of our balance sheet mavens (cough cough K Wave hint cough cough) could take a look at this particular company's balance sheet and tell us if it's true. I can't say the name of the company, but let's just say their houses are don't crumble like their chocolate chip cookies.

Cuz also told me that a very prominent Northeast regional builder with some operations in the Sunbelt, with whose CEO he is also friends with may be days away from a bankruptcy filing. I don't think this is "inside info". There's been scuttlebutt about it in the media.

kaufman & Broad Cookies?

Dow monthly log chart

Dow is gonna loose the voo-doo uptrend channel (in red) from 1982. The 2002 low was exactly at 38 fibo from 1975 low to 2000 high. The blue channel is a channel projection which gives us a downside target. This could lead us to 9k or so where we would meet the EMAA 200 monthly. Note that in the 70s the Dow sometimes went below that EMA, but since then this hasnt happened again. This wont last forever.

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what is the builder in the sun belt ... id like to buy some puts !

Those charts look real familiar.

Handsome charts -- much appreciated.

I think it has a chance to cross down through 200 months MA, but I'll be a buyer each time it does it. It should be around 8k, I guess

http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/15473047.html

I've copy-pasted several comments from other folks in the discussion section (http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2008/02/08/nostalgia/), they tell amazing things how the CDS with 30% subordination (!!!) (CMBX-NA-AAA 4) is trading at 224 bps spread (!!!!!).

I think you can add this chart to the big, big warning that the Fed TOMO show every day. There is a total, complete lack of liquidity in the system.

How to explain that? You can put a full wallet in the dirt and ask someone to bid the single dollar to pay for removal of this wallet and extraction of bills out of it. It sounds like a good deal, but nobody has that damn dollar!

right now the EMA 200 monthly is at 8571 (it is written in green on the chart)

and they still have $53,000 in credit-card debt.

I could almost swear the banksters allowed this kind of thing to happen on purpose to thousands of people with uncontrollable desires to live way beyond their means

Minor problem with piggyback seconds.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ST2008020900499

What the hell did these lenders expect?

I hope so. I put a small short on early last week and sold Feb putz angainst it , ready for the OPEX aSSblast next week.