A few bulls were seen running on Wall Street, but the crowds running with them were small. Is this just a warmup for the big event, or has the rabble lost interest?

Pamplona? I would say Waterloo!

Doc, I wonder if I could get your help interpreting this:
NYTimes

Regardless of how this activity is treated for income tax purposes, it would seem to me that it effectively renders reporting on insider selling meaningless. Unless, of course, these transactions are reported to the SEC in that context. Any thoughts on this?

Over my head, and outside any area in which I have limited expertise.

Anytime they put three words like prepaid and forward and contract together, they've lost me.

ST bottom

still can't tell if it's bullish or bearish

gunning for the 46 area on QQQQ

from the article ...holding a large amount of publicly traded stock that has gained in value wants to turn that stock into cash, but not immediately pay the capital gains taxes that apply when the stock is sold.


From IRS website publication 550:

http://www.irs.gov/publications/p550/ch04.html#d0e8897

You are treated as having made a constructive sale when you enter into certain transactions involving an appreciated financial position (defined later) in stock, a partnership interest, or certain debt instruments. You must recognize gain as if the position were disposed of at its fair market value on the date of the constructive sale. This gives you a new holding period for the position that begins on the date of the constructive sale. Then, when you close the transaction, you reduce your gain (or increase your loss) by the gain recognized on the constructive sale.

Here is another example of one set of rules for the cronies and another set for the chumps. The intent of IRS is quite clear in pub 550. If you have locked in your gain and are no longer at market risk you owe the tax now; unless, you have this special situation as described in the article.

Those few bulls were spotted later in the day.....

[attachmentid=95586]

Having said that....I donged the indecies this morning for a couple day scalp...

It looks to me like another tax avoidance scheme. I wonder how much the fees in this are?

When the Fraudsters are involved somebody is getting scammed. In this case I think it is us. the taxpayers.

Is the bottom is? From today's Richard Russell letter.

February 11, 2008 -- (Bloomberg) -- Before you can say "Barack Obama is president of the United States,'' the economy will be growing faster again. That forecast is based on the rise in the five-year Treasury yield from its lowest level relative to two- and 10- year notes since 2001. The last two times that happened was during the recessions of 1990 and 2001, and the economy began to expand within nine months.

"We're actually starting to see tell-tale signs by the market that it expects the economy to be in recovery in six to nine months,'' said James Caron, head of U.S. interest-rate strategy in New York at Morgan Stanley. The five-year note "tends to be the most forward-looking point on the curve,'' said Caron, whose firm is one of the 20 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the Federal Reserve.

"If past is prologue, then the five-year note's yield indicates the economy will be on the mend by the Nov. 4 general election. Whoever wins the White House may have Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to thank for cutting interest rates at the fastest pace in almost two decades and President George W. Bush and Congress for a proposed $168 billion stimulus package. .

Russell Comment -- Is this what the Transports have been trying to tell us? Is this what has been keeping me so puzzled in the face of the endless dire forecasts? Remember, the bond market is probably more sophisticated and forward-looking than the stock market.

http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/MembersOnl...st?OpenDocument subs required

Russell Comment -- Is this what the Transports have been trying to tell us? Is this what has been keeping me so puzzled in the face of the endless dire forecasts? Remember, the bond market is probably more sophisticated and forward-looking than the stock market.

http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/MembersOnl...st?OpenDocument subs required

[/quote]

the transports have only said "I want to do a 50% retracement to the downtrend line and to major overhead resistance". Until this is proven wrong, the are not saying anything else.

Russell is a lot smarter than me though.


It might also be saying "I am going for a blast through the tendline to blow out the shorts and then take a trip to the bottom of the channel"

I appreciate the snip from Russell. Unless I'm mistaken, his subscribers missed most of the post-2003 rally. Then, he went bullish really, really late in the day.

I understand he's made some terrific calls. So, too, has Bob Brinker.

But I think both of them have spotted records at this point, and I don't put much stock any more in Russell's calls at this point.

Any guess what these wheat prices mean for bagel costs? I eat 4 bagels a day. I pay $3.25 for 6 bagels. Will I be paying $7 for 6 bagels by Summer? I may have to switch to rice bagels. I could start hoarding bagels now but I don't have that much freezer space. I think I'll go to the natural foods store and see if I can interest them in selling me some bagel calls to limit my exposure.

For the first time I can remember, the folks I know are split on a candidate. Big Mo has been hanging with Obama, so I decided to look around a bit. Obama has three principal (at this point) eCONomic advisers. Here's their photos. I also found this interview w/BBC's Hardtalk with one of these you would-be masters of the world's super power eCONomy. Video link in article.

I ain't impressed.

Obama's pretty and a fine orator, but I don't know that he has an analysis or a plan to deal with what's coming.

Or you could go long a wheat future, or the CRB, or DBA if you're looking for a lower-leverage vehicle...

Speak,

Obama's pretty and a fine orator, but I don't know that he has an analysis or a plan to deal with what's coming.

As I alluded to prior to the recent elections in OZ.

THIS WAS A GOOD ONE TO LOSE.

More rate rises on way as RBA sounds alarm

AUSTRALIANS should brace for another rate rise next month, and more after that, with the Reserve Bank revealing it will take years - at least two, and possibly more - before inflation is back under control.

An unusually explicit RBA statement on monetary policy revealed that inflation was likely to exceed its target until 2010. Even then it would return to a high of 3%, the top of the target range.

"On the current outlook, then, and allowing for the inevitable uncertainties in forecasting, the risk of inflation remaining uncomfortably high for some time is considerable," the RBA statement said. "Absent a further shift in economic risks to the downside, therefore, monetary policy is likely to need to be tighter in the period ahead."

The warning has increased concerns that the economy is in for a hard landing next year.

http://business.theage.com.au/more-rate-ri...80211-1rkw.html

This is a no brainer. The solution is simple. Go to Montreal and camp out on the sidewalk in front of Fairmount Bagels. This is the real thing, not the faux bread dough rings they call bagels here in the US. 7 days a week, 24 hours a day. Once you've had one of these the price simply won't matter.

Or maybe short PNRA or one of those. Higher commodity prices should squeeze retailers.

Fokker's off to go soak his head in the tub.

the penny is starting to drop in OZ.

Australian January Business Confidence Plunges

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Australian business confidence fell in January to the lowest since terrorist attacks on the U.S. in September 2001, as rising interest rates and turmoil on financial markets buffeted companies' outlook for 2008.

The confidence index dropped 9 points to minus 4 from December, according to a National Australia Bank Ltd. survey of companies released in Melbourne today. A reading below zero shows those expecting business to deteriorate outnumber those predicting an improvement.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...Tb7I&refer=home

Canadian bagels? If you say so, Doc. The only Canadian food I ever had was bacon. And I'm pretty sure that's not really Canadian. Maybe I can just cut my bagel intake in half and get banned from a Madrid catwalk.

But speaking of things Canadian, I'm tempted by uranium here.

URPTF (US) / U (Toronto)

Here's a little thinly traded goldie ready to double in a flash. I got mine at .32 mmr.v or mmrsf I see it at long term support. I figured it was worth putting a little bet on. After all, this is a casino right?

Skid- I kid you not. Once you've had one of these, you'll never go back.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_bagel

http://www.fairmountbagel.com/eng/index.htm



http://www.cbc.ca/sevenwonders/wonder_montreal_bagel.html

Sounds like a movie..

"They will be pain"

Forecast: hard times ahead

THERE will be pain. There will be more rises in interest rates. Those who have paid off their homes can feel snug. Those who are paying off their homes can feel uneasy, some of them, very, very uneasy.

If the Reserve Bank's statements on monetary policy make its goals any more explicit than this one has, they will have to start coming in a plastic wrapper. The Reserve has said quite openly that it will need to raise interest rates higher. And having said that, we can assume it will do it as soon as possible.

And it is raising rates with one equally explicit aim: to slow Australia's rate of economic growth to well below average levels, with rising unemployment, so that harsher times can wring inflation out of the system.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/tim-...2578689326.html

wow

Looks like they weren't ready to stop selling. Right back up to the distribution zone.

I remember this stock from 2000 when it was $144. Some guys made a lifetime salary shorting this baby. Unfortunately, I think I donged the $150 Calls!

Nothing like finding the answer to your question on the evening news:Link

C'mon, Doc -- this is the kind of transaction we all need to master: heads you win, tails some other sucka loses. Call your broker tomorrow and ask for it by name -- a prepaid variable forward contract.

YEAH, BABY!

the banks pretending that they are trying to help people avoid foreclosure.

The 'walk away' movement has the banks petrified.

Six U.S. Banks Plan to Step Up Efforts to Avoid Foreclosures


Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and four other lenders will announce new steps tomorrow to help borrowers in danger of default stay in their homes, according to three people familiar with the plans.

The banks will start ``Project Lifeline,'' offering, on a case-by-case basis, a 30-day freeze on foreclosures while loan modifications are considered, two people said on condition of anonymity. The companies met with Treasury officials over the past week to discuss ways to encourage homeowners to get in touch with their mortgage servicers, one person familiar with the deliberations said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...9a3k&refer=home

Wonderful idea. Banksters are great at finding ways to help folks "stay in the game" . . .

"Project Jubilee" Offers Help for Struggling Debtors

Not only delinquent subprime borrowers, but any mortage debtor, in fact any debtor of any kind, in any amount, for any reason, will have all their debts permanently forgiven, without any tax liability, under the new Project Jubilee Bailout plan sponsored by Sen. Chuck Schumer (DumbaSS - N.Y.).

"Any debtor under the median income threshold will be allowed to totally walk away from all their debts, period," explained Sen. Schumer. "There will be no cost to creditors, as the sum total of all forgiven debts will be divided equally among all non-debtors above the median income threshold via a one-time special aSSessment payable May 15th of this year. What could be more fair?"

In addition, even people with no debt, as long as they are under the median income threshold, will be allowed to claim a "debt rebate" and have up to $25,000 cash deposited into their checking account, tax-free. The money will be debited from one of their neighbors' accounts, chosen at random from those who earn above the median income.

Junk bonds fell down below January deep. Stocks always follow. If bonds do not bounce back tomorrow we'll a lower low (at closing price metric) of $SPX. Or at least this is what always happened before.

Looking how credit default swaps tubled in the last few days I would say we should expect one or two bankruptcies shortly. Maklowe is already in

Just noticed CCJ is riding the 900 SMA.

we are headed for an inflation 'shock' in this country.

Whats next??

Butter under lock and key as prices soar

AUSTRALIAN pastry chef Tracy Nickl never imagined he would have to tighten security at his country bakery to ensure nobody stole his butter.

But when he realised the value of his yellow stockpile had reached more than $20,000, he decided it was time to put in an alarm system and have a security guard patrol his business at night.

"It's incredibly valuable," he said. "Its price has gone from 100 boxes being worth $6000 or $7000... now it's worth $20,000."

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...5003402,00.html

We must be near some sort of top. Nobody here.

i think mad has some calls on that one... i thinl some other Uranium plays are good as well

I am here.

I am always here.

I am like a security guard patrolling CS to make sure no bulls sneak in during the night to wreak havoc.

I'm going to mortgage a house and run up my credits cards then go to my boss and demand a a prepaid variable forward pay cut.

here comes the next wave of pay claims...round and round it goes on the inflation round about..

Who will win out?

The Reserve bank or the workers..

Vic teachers set for 'record' strike

A record number of schools will close across Victoria on Thursday as teachers strike for more pay, a union leader says.

Australian Education Union (AEU) Victorian president Mary Bluett said about 25,000 teachers were expected to strike

http://news.theage.com.au/vic-teachers-set...80212-1rrp.html

Good night Bris,

Doc:
Why would you go long the bagels when Kishkey and Kashe Farfel are in such abundance..

I have a friend who deals in Luckshin Koogle and wont touch any of the other comestibles....

Herring (unpackaged) with a few minor health department violations, is quite tasty with a jug of slivovitz....

How in the helll are we going to fight inflation with above examples of price complacency??..... Ah Finstere yahr auf dein kopf!!!

beardrech BD I just found the scheduled price list of above items--I was looking in the wrong palce among the Latke and Loose lard reports which commodities as nabors are an afe (abomination on the face of the earth)....

Fire all their aSSes.

Bears duped again today.